GbP RallY tO FizzLE OuT, GoLD iS uP - ApriL 03.

Yesterday, Euro once again failed to make gains beyond after briefly hitting 1.3380 in early hours of European trading. While it was taking a breather after weak Euro-zone PMI, rumor of Bundesbank’s refusal to honor Greek, Portuguese and Irish bond, which was later denied by the German Central Bank caused more damage to the currency.

Later in US session, after mildly positive ISM data the European currency tested days low, but could not make further gains after testing the support level of 1.3280.

However, today again emphasis will be on European economic numbers, which is constantly on the weaker side. Quarterly GDP number may not upset the market, but today’s Producer Price Index is the data to watch.

Meanwhile, in almost after an hour time Reserve Bank of Australia (RBI) will announce its decision on interest rate. Market has developed a consensus that it does not expect a cut this time, but I will not be surprised to see a slash. AUD has gained on sentiment of no rate cut and no rate cut decision will give further boost to the Australian currency, which will be opportunity to sell Aussies, as market will soon realize the strength could be short lived due to weak economic condition.


Euro @ 1.3344 = I do not see much of change in the market behavior, as Euro should be bought around 1.3310-20 on dips, it should not fall below 1.3290 and has firm protection around 1.3265-70. A break of 1.3355 will encourage for 1.3390-95, where Euro has strong resistance.  

GBP @ 1.0638 = Cable remains a buy around 1.6010 with STOPS at 1.5880, but I will not be comfortable with long around 1.6070-75, as the ongoing rally could soon fizzle out.  

GOLD @  $ 1677,20= Trend is up, prefer buying on dips around $ 1674-65 with STOPS at $ 1670. Break of $ 1680 will pave way for $ 1684-85.


EurO –GbP & GoLD - BiaS on UpsidE ApR 2-6

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Comment by spring on April 3, 2012 at 2:33pm

WO  ,broker !    greedy

Comment by shehzana shamsi on April 3, 2012 at 3:09pm

Greetings Mr Rizvi I always prefer staying away from market during important news events as price whipsaws alot and there are chances that most probably ur stoploss is hit....what is ur opinion???do u still think that strong support and resistance holds during such times...thank u

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:23pm

Shehzana, yes that is the right approach, but traders do have the habit of entering the market and take risk. Anyways I do not tend to disagree with strategy. I prefer to square position before any major news/event…GL  

Comment by spring on April 3, 2012 at 3:27pm

EURO is strong.wo

Comment by Muhammad Taseen Khan on April 3, 2012 at 3:39pm

Dear Mr Rizvi

Kindly explain the fundamental reason for decline of GBL. Will it be more weak after the annoncement of FOMC minutes.

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:41pm

Follow my blog please I have too many mails to answer....I said test 1.5935-40 and I mean it ;-)

Comment by sowMa on April 3, 2012 at 3:48pm

Hello Sir GB falling but EU moving high it means EU may fall after FOMC ? or it move further high to 1.3400 levels? thank you.

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 3:52pm

sowMa, GBP correction was overdue and failure to break 1.6080 has forced correction. However, before FOMC minutes I do not see Euro to push beyond 1.3350, probably may fizzle out around 1.3345 for 1.3310-20

Comment by shehzana shamsi on April 3, 2012 at 4:04pm

God Bless thank u Mr Rizvi

Comment by asad rizvi on April 3, 2012 at 4:42pm

Jason, yes looking for a break of 1.0320 that would pavr way for 1.0275-80


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