EurO & GbP,TrenD DowN TheN uP –GoLD tO SuffeR- Mar 30

US Dollar continued with its morning gain due to worsening economic condition and uncertainty in Spain. Its high borrowing cost and strike in the country further dented Euro that pushed European currency. Today’s (FRIDAY) budget could provide clearer picture that if Spain can seriously impose austerity measures to reduce its high deficit or will it succumb to the public pressure and will have to face similar situation/condition faced earlier by Greece.

Friday’s US economic data that mixed signal about US economic recovery initially gave further boost to the USD that proved to be short lived and by the close of day USD after hitting day’s high of 1.3253 lost its shine.

Bernanke’s presence during the week helped market to trade on his sentiments based on his speech, but in real terms the conclusion was that he tried to maintain a balance and did not allow guessing correctly. My pick is that he gave a correct assessment about the US economic that it is going to be a long struggle and still has long way to go. He will not take/make any risk/decision to spoil years of hard work that can blow up the recovery.

Since it will take many more years for the economy to get back at its normal pace, hence FED Chairman seems willing to act and mend accordingly, as and when necessary, which means that inflation is a matter of grave concern but quantitative easing (QE) is more important to stimulate the economy. Inflation number could surge but rate hike may not be affordable.

UK is a good example that despite over 5 pct inflation BoE kept its bank rate at 0.5 pct, so it’s workable. Another e.g., BUBA, German Central Bank famous for not compromising on issues is happy to see European’s money printing machine active and makes no fuss.  The world has learned that do whatever is necessary to protect the rich and make sure that rich class of the society does not lose money.     



GOLD @ $ 1663 = No word on QE and India consuming less gold as protest enters 13th day does not make gold very attractive. Prefer continuation of strategy sell on rise.

Down trend to remain intact as long as Gold stays below $ 1676. Prefer selling around $ 1665-67. Stops $ 1672 for & 1656 or $ 1652


GBP @ 1.5975 = Unlikely to break 1.60 in Asia any cable up move should be a sell with STOPS 1.6025, for test of 1.5940-50 zone, watch this level, as GBP could dip to 1.5925, buy GBP if seen as it could later attack and break 1.60 for 1.6060. Downside break of 1.5880 will delay up move.


EURO @ 1.3352 = Initially I see a drop towards 1.3300-10 zones before making another upside attempt. Prior to European opening if Euro climbs toward 1.3370 prefer selling, as I do not expect a break of 1.34 in Asia. But on dips Euro can be bought with Stops 1.3270 for 1.3390’s


RangE TradinG UntiL NYK – GoLD BiaS DownSidE - Mar 29

Views: 2405


Comment by ali murtaza on March 30, 2012 at 12:57pm

Mr Rizvi, i cudnt trade as per ur morning views.

what shud be done now for gold , bp or euro

Comment by asad rizvi on March 30, 2012 at 12:59pm

View unchanged...Please follow blog

Comment by spring on March 30, 2012 at 2:31pm

Euro Challenges Critical Resistance.

Comment by spring on March 30, 2012 at 2:36pm

sir, fall ! EURO

Comment by spring on March 30, 2012 at 2:40pm

The target ?  @  around 1.3270?

I sell @ 1.3348 again.

Comment by asad rizvi on March 30, 2012 at 2:58pm

EURO @ 1.3310 = Suggest taking profit and go long Euro around 1.3275-80 Stops 1.3240

GBP @ 1.5970 = buy around 1.5950-55 with STOP at 1.5920 for 1.5995

Comment by spring on March 30, 2012 at 3:05pm

Thank you ,sir !

I am waitting for you .

follow you

Comment by spring on March 30, 2012 at 3:12pm

"Cable is surprisingly strong despite bad economic numbers, but I cannot fight the trend...."

-------asad rizvi

yes,Trend is best friend.

Cable is very strong.

Comment by Obike Sylvester on March 30, 2012 at 3:24pm

kudos, does that mean that Eur/Usd will down to 3280?

Comment by asad rizvi on March 30, 2012 at 3:31pm

It means 1st book you profit and get ready to catch the next move..........!


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