As shown on the 4 hour chart above, the pair is trading around the sloping support line of the upward channel of the rally 1.2625/1.3485, according to momentum indicators strong pullback is on the horizon, on daily Williams is trying to find support around 1.3170, a daily close above yesterday's high 1.3240 is gonna give us a light bullish trend on daily - trend continuation of the previous swing at 1.2975 and the the pair should attack 1.3485 very soon...

A daily close below 1.3159 yesterday's low is gonna test/break the previous swing at 1.2975 on daily !

On 4 hour , a close below 1.3120 is gonna eliminate any positivity and should test 1.2975 very easy!

The last note , yesterday the pair found resistance at 1.3236, a clear break above this level (high & low) is supposed to attack /test 1.3365 very easy or even 1.3485....

Trend direction is upward, the trend will remain valid as long as 1.3170 holds , a daily close below level may test 1.2975 .

Support: 1.3170, 1.3120, 1.3040, 1.3000, 1.2975

Resistance: 1.3236, 1.3280, 1.3365, 1.3425, 1.3485

Recommendations: Upon the chart and the explanation posted above, my recommendations are;

1- Buying the pair with a clear break(high and low) above 1.3236 on 30 min chart, targeting 1.3320 & 1.3365, stop loss below 1.3159..

2 Selling the pair at 1.3095 targeting 1.3065,1.3035 & 1.3005 , stop loss at 1.3155.

Best Regards

Tuesday 06 Mar 2012 07:00 AM

Views: 995

Comment by Haitham653 on March 6, 2012 at 1:17pm

I think the EURO will go up and strongly, this is not the time to resume the downtrend, I think the pair will keep going up till the elections end of April 2012 , then we'll figure out, the pair will continue flying or move sideways , or resume the downtrend ...

Comment by Haitham653 on March 6, 2012 at 6:26pm

I see 1.2980 is on the horizon, but a daily close below 1.3150 is indeed to test this level?!!

If we test 1.2980 I think double bottom is suggested on daily chart around this level ?!!!

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 6:03am

Hello everyone..

Yesterday, the pair broke below the sloping support line of the uptrend channel on daily chart of the rally 1.2625 - 1.3485, and closed at 1.3120, I have to admit, yes this is negative but I still have valid swing on daily at 1.2975 still proctoring the upward move , so any bearish move above this level is vulnerable and strong pullback may seen any moment..

so below 1.3170/50 we have light bearish trend , according to 60 min chart a bullish correction is suggested toward 1.3140/60 before heading down below 1.3100 level BUT on 15 min , possible  swing entry on the horizon at 1.3132, this could be normal bullish correction or beginning of new upward trend, If you wanna short around 1.3140/60 it's up to you , don't make your stop more than 1.3250, for me I prefer selling the pair below 1.3100...

Recommendations: I have the same recommendations as yesterday..

Wednesday 07 Mar 2012 06:00 AM

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 7:08am

Lots of bearish divergences around 1.3150 level on 15 min chart, break below 1.3132 should test 1.3100 and add strong negative pressure on the pair, If this level is taken out , I guess the pair should easily test 1.3040/30 ?!!

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 1:45pm

According to 30 min chart, the pair found resistance at 13165, any bullish move should be capped by this level, losing this level is gonna test 1.3240 level..

I think the pair would test 1.3150 before the next fall towards 1.3100 levels..

Comment by Reza Ajorloei on March 7, 2012 at 1:57pm

Hello Haitham

I think euro is correcting 1.3485-1.3100 decline, today we can see 1.3190/1.3200 top, decline should be limited around 1.3100.!

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 2:19pm

Hello Reza..

Yes it can go beyond 1.3165 but according to RSI on 30 min a drop around 1.3150/60 is suggested at least 30 pips before breaking above 1.3165...above 1.3165 we have strong resistance 1.3240 , so the pair may top between 1.3165 - 1.3240...

On 15 min chart , strong pressure on the pair and it "may" break below 1.3100 ?!!

Anyway , according to RSI on 4 hour big consolidation is suggested between 1.3100/1.3240 before the next fall towards 1.2975...

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 2:52pm

As shown on the 4 hour chart above , to keep the downtrend valid, the level 1.3240 must hold, If this important resistance is taken out , I think that would eliminate the negativity of the double top pattern, and the pair would test 1.3350 or break above this level ?!!

Comment by naivetrader1 on March 7, 2012 at 2:59pm

EU@3118: Would it be sensible to take a small (LONG) trade, expecting it to test 3240-ish? 

Comment by Haitham653 on March 7, 2012 at 3:12pm

Hello naivetrader, buying the pair below 1.3240 is risky, the pair is trying hard to break below 1.3100 on 15 min chart, it may test 1.3125/30 then try again to break below 1.3100, breaking above 1.3125/30 would test 1.3145/55..


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