RangE TradinG UntiL NeW YorK
Recently, I have noted that there is lot of criticism about the heading and my style of analysis. I am not here to take orders from each and every trader and change my habits and adjust according to their wishes. This can be due professional jealousy.
From my perspective, I am honest and brave in giving my views and I do change my views frequently as and when required. I do enjoy exchange of mails and try to reply most of them. At times there are some disagreements, but it’s nothing personal, as we all are professionals. In trade if there are no Buyers or Sellers then there can be not trade possible.
However, if you guys still insist and do not want me to continue with my FX STREET BLOG then I will stop contributing from March 16 onwards, which means I am giving 15-days to the readers to decide. I have no commitment with Fx Street, I will surely quit.
Range Trading Expected
The most satisfying part of yesterday’s frequent update was that despite initially having bearish view on USD, I did manage to timely warn my readers/followers to avoid purchasing Euro until 1.3345, when I gave 1st clear signal to buy Euro. Though it was not a good level to buy Euro but proved to be a safe level. The point that I am trying to make here is that in trading there is nothing such as last word or profit on every transaction is not possible.
Yesterday is a good example that I was quick in sensing the change and I adjusted accordingly, although lately I was trying to do some bottom hunting and I or if someone was following me ended up unhurt.
The main factor behind yesterday’s move was that the global financial market was concentrating on LTRO and after the announcement market was slightly uncomfortable with amount demanded and was trying to figure out the impact because the LTRO amount of EURO 529.50 billion was roughly 20-25 pct higher than the market estimate. Bigger LTRO means bigger problem in pipeline and therefore more money is required.
Since January, financial market has been mostly concentrating on developments in Europe, which is considered a major global issue giving less importance to Mr. Bernanke’s congress testimony.
His views was combination of the both, optimism and pessimism, as he spoke of better US GDP growth and improving job condition. But more important was that market sensed that FED may not go for 3rd Quantitative Easing (QE) in May this year that clobbered equity market, Gold tumbled and USD soared.
So for the moment I do not expect excessive move in the market and range bound trading is expected until market gets a clear direction.
EURO @ 1.3336 = 1.3280 is the support key level to watch. Buy Euro on dips around 1.3305-10 for test of 1.3360-70. It needs to clear 1.3440 for resumption of up move. Fall of support level risk for 1.3220.
GBP @ 1.5918 = Cable is still preferable currency as long as it hold 1.5770. It should retest 1.5935-40 and beyond.
Feb 29 - EurO & GoLD to TesT NeW HigHs - Feb 29
http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/euro-gold-to-test-new-highs
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Comment by asad rizvi on March 1, 2012 at 11:14am
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Hi Jason, Euro @ 1.3324 = will struggle to move beyond 1.3360-70 zones and should top out around 1.3340-50 for a test of 1.3275-80…..Cheers
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Comment by Jason on March 1, 2012 at 11:23am -
Thanks Sir.
Appreciate your response. So it may be a good idea to go short somewhere near 1.3340 - 50.
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I wouldn’t mind but apply STOPS
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Comment by Jason on March 1, 2012 at 11:31am
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Thanks Sir
You have been moste helpful.
Lets hope we can see 1.3340 - 50 to go short.
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Comment by Jason on March 1, 2012 at 11:52am
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Hi Sir
What do you think of the GOLD ?
It appears that if GOLD cannot get above 1747 on a daily basis, we may see it going below 1690 to the 1600 region.
Any opinion Sir ? Thanks.
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Comment by msrich6335 on March 1, 2012 at 12:03pm -
We are here to grow and to help each other. Thanks Mr. Rizvi for your time and dedication. I look forward to your thought provoking perspective.
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Hi Raj, we may 1st see a test of 1.3240-50 and break could risk for 1.3184, before next up move occurs. However, if we close above 1.3340 by Friday, we could be heading for 1.3450-1.35 next week.
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Rajesh, when I am talking of downside risk, I do not prefer taking that type of risk. But again that’s your call.
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Comment by Shaji on March 1, 2012 at 2:31pm
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Hi Rizvi,
Any comments on Gold????
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GOLD @ 1710 = Gold will continue to suffer for few more days and only break of $ 1728 may push it towards $ 1735-40. However, selling interest is likely to dominate as break of $ 1698 will push Gold towards $ 1680-84, which is another key support level.
Comment
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