EurO & GoLD to TesT NeW HigHs - Feb 29

LTRO announcement will be the big even of the day and there are lot of guess work, talk and analysis about the number and possible impact on the market. The December LTRO tranche did work well in the sense that it gave some sort of stability to European banking system that helped in stabilizing the bond market to a certain extent, though Portugal and Greece CDS are still record high.

There is lot of pressure from G-30 to put extra funds in IMF kitty and expectation is high that this time LTRO could be bigger than the 1^st one. In my December write-up I mentioned that this move by the ECB is quantitative easing (QE) and injection through LTRO is yet another QE stance by the ECB. It’s a virus that came from USA and has now spread all over the globe, for which a price has to be paid in future.

I am myself not too sure that how should the react. But my immediate reading says anything over EURO 500 billion will considered positive that will give more space to EURO and GOLD. Anything around EURO 400 billion or below will give market enough reason to go for EURO and GOLD correction.

Until LTRO announcement sentiment for EURO and GOLD should remain positive, so buying EURO and Gold on dips close to chart support levels may not be bad idea, but watch out for rumors and news flashes and be quick to act.

However, market will remain choppy.

EURO @ 1.3372 = Buying Euro on dips around 1.3450-60 is preferred. Jumping in the middle of the range could be risky proposition. Prior to LTRO announcement we may see a test of 1.3520-40. STOPS is 1.3420 surrenders. On the upside 1.3580 is the crucial level to watch.

GBP @ 1.5923 = Cable buying around 1.5905-15 looks good, with STOPS if 1.5870 breaks for 1.5965-70. Next level to watch would be 1.6065

GOLD @ $ 1786 = Buying on dips preferred. Should find base around $ 1780-82 for a break of $ 1793, a break here could push Gold to $ 1798. Crucial level to watch is $ 1810. A break of $ 1770 will see sharp selloff.

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FEB 28 - EurO & GoLD – CaT & MouSe GamE to ContinuE

http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/euro-gold-cat-mouse-game-...

Tags: http://asadcmka.blogspot.com/

3 members like this

Comment by asad rizvi on February 29, 2012 at 5:28pm: I am not embarrassed!!…1.3486 & 1790.75 ;-)

Comment by Jason on February 29, 2012 at 5:31pm: HI Mr Rivzi

Today's market has been nothing short of being amazing! Thought the EURO will pull back but I was taken aback by the magnitude of the downward move. Thats the market for you. Expect the unexpected. Like to check with you whether you think the EURO has bottomed already ?

Do you think it will start to resume its uptrend or do you think we have finally seen the EURO top at 1.3486 ?

Thanks

Comment by asad rizvi on February 29, 2012 at 5:52pm: True, but I have been able to catch every single move….Cheers and GL

Comment by Richard on February 29, 2012 at 7:24pm: sir do you see eur/usd breaking 1.3320

Comment by asad rizvi on February 29, 2012 at 7:34pm: Euro @ 1.3345 = Euro is a very close to a crucial support level of 1.3310. Should hold and we may see a test of 1.3375 tonight. Break of support level means test of 1.3250 unavoidable.

Comment by asad rizvi on March 1, 2012 at 1:55am: Cheers.........& GL

Comment by Jason on March 1, 2012 at 2:05am: Hi Mr Rivzi

Saw your posting and also Lisa's posting.

It appears that yesterday sharp move down in the EUR, AUD and other majors raised a question of whether the USD has bottomed and whether it will start to rise ?

Looking at the technical charts, think this is still a 50 - 50 call. In your opinion, do you think the EUR has made a high already and will resume its downtrend from here ?

Thanks Sir

Comment by trader on March 1, 2012 at 2:57am: hello

yesterday you posted that it will make new high.which it didnt make.and on that same day i saw your post "True, but I have been able to catch every single move".when you are able to catch every single move then its your responsibility to tell your followers.dont which statement to be believed (new high or True, but I have been able to catch every single move)

Comment by trader on March 1, 2012 at 3:04am: its not all about tips but saying two sides of coin are mine

Comment by asad rizvi on March 1, 2012 at 3:09am: What was the outcome if you have been following my every single post.

Logically, then it did test the new high of 1.3484 & Gold $ 1790.75 after my popst.

And finally I am responsible for anyting. ;-)