narrow range swings
EURO and GBP are making narrow range swings around the psychological levels 1.45 and 1.64 area repectively.AUD made the quick rise and holding near high.The initial highs and lows are intact sofor since their formation by 03;30 GMt excepting USD/CHF - it has breached the initial low 0.8007 to 0.7999, USD/CAD from 0.9431 to 0.9430 and USD/YEN from 77.84 to 77.68.Extrme multi year lows are formed there similar to multi year high in AUD.
When multi year moves are made near month end there might be sudden reversal moves may happen also.So trade using hedging or stop to limit the risk.Try to do only small swing trades during month end and new month beginning time.
the forecast model expects volatile move and slide during Japanese session,swing and drop during european session and drop and rise during US session.But during month end time the market has shown may times moves against the forecast expectations.so when the moves are in line with the forecast you may use it or else follow the market using other means to take decisions.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
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Comment by MarlonF on July 27, 2011 at 8:00am -
dear Dr, any forecast for silver / gold?
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Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on July 27, 2011 at 8:59am -
Dear marlon
it is month end time - there may be some quick eitherway extreme moves.trade with care sir.
Regards
dr.Sivaraman
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Comment by MarlonF on July 27, 2011 at 9:09am
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thank you dr, am actually stuck in a short position, i wish i had traded with care...
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Comment by ATF on July 27, 2011 at 9:58am -
Dear Marlon its all part of the game....may ur positions come in profit soon..
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Comment by Roshan Naidu on July 27, 2011 at 10:03am
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Dear Doctor, is it possible that usdchf has set the multi-year low already?
thanks
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Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on July 27, 2011 at 10:57am
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Dear Roshan
it is month end time - the volatility may be more.So it is difficult to ascertain that the low is set in USD/CHF.we will get the clarity in a day or two.If you hold any unfavorable position please use risk limiting strategy of stop or hedging.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
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Comment by manan shah on July 27, 2011 at 12:00pm
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hello dr,
do you see GBP is topped as coming off 60 ticks.. 6350>? i sold at 6412..if it has then do you going below 1.6000 next month
thanks
manan
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Comment by MarlonF on July 27, 2011 at 12:31pm
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thanks ATF, lets hope so too
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Comment by Dr. Sivaraman on July 27, 2011 at 12:32pm
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Dear manan
Please keep stop at entry in the proofit making position to eleminate the risk.then trail the stop maintaining 15-30 pips from the market .Watch how the low is handled.if the low is not breached for 30 min once set during early or late session,you try to close the position with profit.Now mid session slide is seen in EURO and GBP.they may continue to slide till close of this session .then watch the move during gap time - if the firm up then they may slide during US session,or if they drop during gap time they may rise during US session.
I am really sorry that I am not giving specific forecast based reply - because if the expectation is given here and not worked out in the markt some get angry with me. I try to give with good intention of giving suggestions.but it leads to more controversy beyond control.Kindly excuse me.
Regards
Dr.Sivaraman
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Comment by SAAJITH GANGA on July 27, 2011 at 12:59pm -
Dear Dr,
Could you please forecaste about GBP/USD and GBP/JPY?GBP/JPY ,is there anychance for drop ?because i have sell at 125.00 level.
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