Omkar Godbole's Blog (93)

GBP/USD - 1.6535 Support taken out

GBP/USD  - 1.6535 Support taken out

Trade Idea 

Rate  - 1.6523

Position - Short @ 1.6520-1.6535 

Target  - 1.6465

Stop Loss - 1.6660

Intraday Outlook - Re-test of 1.6465 Possible

Cable failed to stabilize after sell off witnessed in Asian trade today. Hourly…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on September 2, 2014 at 12:30pm — 2 Comments

Macros Simplified

Macros Simplified 

Some Points to Remember

  • Global economy is in a state of aggregate demand deficiency because
  • Advanced Economies lack demographic dividend while…
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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 30, 2014 at 8:30am — 4 Comments

Crude Oil Insights

Crude Oil Insights

Trade Idea

  1. Initiate Sell in range of 95.60 to 95.90 for Target of 92.58 & 91.62 with Stop Loss of 97.10
  2. Buy Crude only if it gives a daily closing above 97.10 levels…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 29, 2014 at 10:13am — No Comments

One Tsunami about to end? ...Next one one its way

One Tsunami about to end? ...Is another in the making ?



Intro 

The talk of the town right now is whether the US Fed Reserve is indeed going to raise interest rates next year. Looking at US Dollar index,…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 27, 2014 at 11:00am — No Comments

Sell GBP/JPY

Trade Idea - Sell GBP/JPY @ 172.21 Target 170.96 Stop Loss 173.05

I Sold GBP/JPY pair at above mentioned levels and expect the target to be reached in next week. I have turned bullish on Yen and thus bearish on yen crosses for the reasons that I shall discuss in next blog…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 27, 2014 at 7:30am — 4 Comments

Daily Insight - 25th Aug 2014

EUR/USD

Downtrend in EUR continues unabated as single currency fell on Friday.  The falling trend line resistance stays at 1.310-1.3420 levels. The currency remains highly oversold as indicated by daily indicators. 4-Hourly and Hourly charts are already pointing to a positive divergence with RSI. However, I need to see a convincing close above 1.33 levels post which I would think of initiating a positional Long trade in EUR/USD. Given the oversold…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 24, 2014 at 5:26pm — No Comments

Forex Insights - 4th August 2014

Find detail in this PDF ...Forex_Insight_040814.pdf

EUR/USD should be bought on dips today. A daily close above 1.3455 shall open doors for 1.3485 levels. Fresh demand for Euros could be seen around 1.3390-1.3370 with stops placed below 1.3348.

GBP/USD Buy on dips is a good strategy for the day. Pair…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on August 4, 2014 at 2:35pm — No Comments

USD/JPY Daily Insight

USD/JPY …

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Added by Omkar Godbole on July 30, 2014 at 4:00pm — No Comments

Currency Insights

Done with Football fever. Congratulations to Germany for a victory full of Germanic Efficiency ! 

Yen - 2-day BOJ meet kicks off

Bank of Japan shall come out with policy statement tomorrow. No major announcement on policy front is expected from BOJ hence the outcome will largely be a non event. 

The ten year treasury yields have rose marginally to 2.54% which explains…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on July 14, 2014 at 3:30pm — No Comments

FX Insight - Broad based Dollar weakness may be a trap

USD/JPY - Yen stands to be the biggest beneficiary

The lackluster USD/JPY pair is finally seeing some movement on the downside after horrible US first quarter GDP number. It is known fact by now that weak GDP would be blamed on extreme weather, however that argument should be bought with pinch of salt. US ten year yield has eased to 2.54% pushing USD/JPY lower to 101.70. 

I had mentioned yesterday that I would prefer to Sell USD/JPY on rise and I…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on June 25, 2014 at 3:53pm — No Comments

FX Insight - Pound under pressure

USD/JPY 

The pair has been trading in a narrow range for quite some time now. US VIX near 2007 lows, strength in equity markets and lackluster US treasury yields provide no clear trigger to Dollar-Yen pair. The silence in USD/JPY pair is alarming given that pair hardly moved during the recent Iraq crisis. 

The action in USD/JPY pair today during Asian and early European restricted around 101.90 levels. Consumer confidence data and New homes sales data…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on June 24, 2014 at 3:01pm — 2 Comments

FX Insight - Pound under pressure

USD/JPY 

The pair has been trading in a narrow range for quite some time now. US VIX near 2007 lows, strength in equity markets and lackluster US treasury yields provide no clear trigger to Dollar-Yen pair. The silence in USD/JPY pair is alarming given that pair hardly moved during the recent Iraq crisis. 

The action in USD/JPY pair today during Asian and early European restricted around 101.90 levels. Consumer confidence data and New homes sales data…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on June 24, 2014 at 3:00pm — No Comments

Weekly Market Update - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and GBP/USD

Weekly Market Update - 9th June to 13th June…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on June 9, 2014 at 7:04am — No Comments

EUR/USD - Look to buy on Dips. ECB unlikely to go for negative rates and/or QE

EUR/USD - Look to buy on Dips. ECB unlikely to go for negative rates and/or QE

Trade Recommendation

IF ECB Cuts refi rate to 0.15%, and ends SMP program

  • Buy EUR/USD @ 1.3460-1.3475 Target 1.3780 Stop loss 1.3380

If ECB cuts deposit rate to negative

  • Sell EUR/USD @ 1.3460-1.3450 Target 1.32 Stop loss 1.3560

Weekly Chart - EUR/USD…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on June 5, 2014 at 11:41am — No Comments

EUR/USD Monthly Chart - Breakout from Downtrend. Target 1.4 & 1.42

EUR/USD Monthly Chart - Breakout from Downtrend. Target 1.4 & 1.42

Trade Recommendation - Enter Buy EUR/USD closer to 1.38 for targets of 1.4 and 1.42 with stop loss of 1.3690…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on May 2, 2014 at 4:30pm — No Comments

FX Markets - Is this the Calm before Storm

FX Markets - Is this the Calm before Storm 

Major currency pairs have been dead flat during last week and almost throughout the month of April. The silence comes exactly before the “Sell in May and go away phenomenon” usually witnessed in Equity markets in the month of May almost every year. This also culminates into…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on April 28, 2014 at 10:05am — No Comments

GBPUSD - Sell Limit @ 1.6830-1.6840

Trade Recommendation - Sell GBP/USD limit @ 1.6830-1.6840 Target 1.6770, 1.6750 Stop loss 1.6865

Caution: In case the retail sales data for the month of march exceeds expectations of 3.8% yer over year by big margin the above mentioned trade should be squared off immediately…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on April 25, 2014 at 6:14am — 1 Comment

Long EURGBP @ 0.8320 Target 0.8365 Stop loss 0.8198

Trade Recommendation

  • Long EURGBP @ 0.8320 Target 0.8365 Stop loss 0.8198

Technical Development

  • Breakout from April month downtrend on 4…
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Added by Omkar Godbole on April 21, 2014 at 11:41am — No Comments

EUR/USD weekly Outlook - Weak CPI would establish a Bear trend

EURUSD - Weak CPI would establish a Bear trend

Trade Recommendation - Sell EURUSD limit @ 1.3850 - 1.3900 for a Target of 1.3664 & 1.3554 with stop loss of 1.3980

EUR/USD data…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on April 14, 2014 at 5:00pm — 3 Comments

US Population Change - What it means for Dow and financial markets

US Population Change - What it means for Dow and financial markets

Table shown below is from Wall Street Journal (WSJ) which shows demographic change in United States in last decade or so…

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Added by Omkar Godbole on April 7, 2014 at 8:07pm — 3 Comments

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