Curt Wehrley's Blog (101)

EUR/USD: A Perspective on the Last Seven Months

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced QE3 on 13 September of last year. From 14 September through 23 April (yesterday), the average EUR/USD daily close price has been just shy of 1.3070.

Today, the euro has basically straddled the…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 24, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments

New Apartment Buildings Drive March US Housing Starts

At first glance, the latest US housing starts report looks solid. Privately-owned housing starts jumped 7 percent from February to March. The March figure of 1.036m units was the first above 1 million in five years.

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A look under the hood, however, reveals that the headline figure was lifted by multi-family units. The…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 16, 2013 at 3:37pm — No Comments

US Jobless Claims in the Spotlight Today

Today's US unemployment insurance weekly claims report could attract some attention. So-called initial claims have jumped over the past two weeks (highlighted in yellow on the graph below).

The consensus forecast for today's report is 362,000. Another high figure could add momentum to today's…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 11, 2013 at 12:09pm — No Comments

US Small Biz Hiring Outlook Turns Tepid

The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has released its latest monthly report based on surveys of small businesses in the United States. The March report suggests weaker US jobs figures during the spring season.

Curt Wehrley

Twitter:…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 9, 2013 at 2:42pm — No Comments

Aussie Firm Following Comments by RBA's Edwards

The Australian dollar received a boost after the news services reported comments made by a Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board member during today's London trading session. Economist John Edwards, an economist and member of the RBA board for nearly two years, has stated that the high Aussie does not require a policy response as the economy is dealing with the currency's strength better than…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 9, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments

NFP Report Could be Deceiving

Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, which usually means non-farm payrolls. The US jobs report for March is due for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT.

As this article explained, traders should tune in when Chicago Fed president…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 5, 2013 at 4:37am — No Comments

Emerging Nations Dump Euro Reserves in 2012

The IMF's updated quarterly COFER report was released late last week. The latest figures, showing foreign exchange reserves as of end 2012, show that central banks in developing countries dumped euros last year, shifting into other currencies such as the Aussie and those of select emerging markets. At 24 percent, euros make up the lowest proportion of developing economy reserves since…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 2, 2013 at 2:14am — No Comments

Currency Correlations | March 2013

Currency Correlation Matrix



Click on the above graph to view a larger version.

Chart Key:

Correlation Symbol - Strong Positive - strong positive correlation…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 1, 2013 at 11:24pm — 1 Comment

Weak US ISM Report is No April Fools Joke

Today's release of the US ISM manufacturing report for March marked a poor start for Q2 economic data releases.

The headline purchasing managers index (PMI) missed the consensus forecast by the greatest margin in twenty months.

Among…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on April 1, 2013 at 4:18pm — No Comments

Forex Decrypted: A Journey With Joe

Using the story of a fictitious, frequently traveling programmer named Joe, I explain in this video some of the factors that have influenced exchange rates over the past four years.

Curt Wehrley
Twitter: @fxcoachcurt
FX Strategist
Licenses: Series 3, 34

Added by Curt Wehrley on March 27, 2013 at 2:00am — 1 Comment

Kuroda's Othello Challenge

As reported here, former Asian Development Bank president Haruhiko Kuroda has been approved to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor.

Mr. Kuroda takes over a central bank that has been historically hesitant to pursue aggressive policy easing measures. Mizuho Securities chief market economist…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on March 15, 2013 at 3:52am — No Comments

Fed/ECB Outlook Driving EUR/USD

Curt Wehrley
Twitter: @fxcoachcurt
FX Strategist
Licenses: Series 3, 34
MetaTraders.com

Added by Curt Wehrley on March 11, 2013 at 5:48pm — No Comments

Trade of the Week | February 25 - March 1, 2013

My hands down choice for FX Trade of the Week (TOTW) is a EUR/JPY short position taken near the 125 level during the Monday 25 February New York morning trading session. As the chart below illustrates, the confluence of two trendlines -- the blue one from the 4-hour chart featured in my February 11-15 TOTW post, the red one based on a series of…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on March 4, 2013 at 12:25am — No Comments

FX Trade of the Week | 18 - 22 February 2013

"Anyone looking to sell a major currency against the Japanese yen must at least consider the British pound." For weeks, I've been delivering variations of that message to FX Bootcamp members attending my coaching sessions in our New York Training Room. During the 18-22 February trading week, a short position taken on the GBP/JPY currency pair paid handsomely.

Two sources of prospective resistance -- a downtrend resistance line based on a series of lower highs established over the…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on February 25, 2013 at 4:11am — No Comments

Trade of the Week | 4 - 8 February, 2013

Both the euro and the Japanese yen made newsworthy counter-trend moves against other major currencies near the end of the 4 - 8 February trading week. Since I've spilled plenty of ink on the Euro Yen in recent Trade of the Week (TOTW) posts, I'm going change it up this week and focus on the British pound, which made a notable counter-trend move against the US dollar.

For the conservative trader, taking a position against the prevailing multi-week trend can be tough at best,…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on February 10, 2013 at 6:43pm — No Comments

Trade of the Week | 14 - 18 January 2013

During the greater part of 2012, intra-day price action on the EUR/USD was sensitive to headlines out of Europe. Comments by key European officials frequently sparked notable intra-day euro moves as markets weighed the possibility of an exit by Greece from the single currency and a bailout of Spain. The headline-driven market theme re-emerged during the 14 - 18 January trading week, only this time the focus was not Europe, but Japan.

In…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on January 20, 2013 at 9:24pm — No Comments

FX Trade of the Week | 7 - 11 January 2013

The trend is your friend. About two months ago, currency traders had reason to scoff at that old trader adage in light of the low volatility and relative lack of FX market direction so commonplace at the time. During the 7-11 January trading week, those who anticipated an extension of the recent eight-week euro yen trend were rewarded handsomely.

On Friday 16 November, I discussed in this market alert video the comments by…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on January 13, 2013 at 7:00pm — 1 Comment

Currency Correlations | December 2012

Currency Correlation Matrix

Currency Correlation Matrix 2012Dec

Chart Key:

Correlation Symbol - Strong Positive - strong positive correlation…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on January 6, 2013 at 11:45pm — No Comments

FX Trade of the Week | 31 December 2012 to 4 January 2013

My first Trade of the Week (TOTW) post for the new year features a classic example of a role reversal scenario.

The EUR/USD price established a four-month high near the 1.3165 level in mid-September of last year. After the euro breached that September high in mid-December, that same 1.3165 zone served as a floor for the pair through the first trading day of 2013.…

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Added by Curt Wehrley on January 6, 2013 at 11:18pm — No Comments

FX Trade of the Week | 17 - 21 December 2012

My final Trade of the Week (TOTW) post of the year is presented with a trio of annotated charts, sans commentary. Happy Holidays!…





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Added by Curt Wehrley on December 24, 2012 at 9:44pm — No Comments

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