Gregor Horvat's Blog (522)

Elliott Waves: DAX Up EURUSD Down?!

NFP numbers on Friday were solid, around expectations so traders could be buying USD this week. We have also seen nicely move up on stocks, which have positive correlation with USD for the last couple of months. So if stocks will continue to rise than EUR will continue downwards against the buck. 

On DAX price rallied very sharply and finished the week at the high so we suspect that new impulsive leg up has started. We are looking at wave four pullback now that can be looking for a…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on May 11, 2015 at 9:14am — No Comments

Crude OIL: Bearish Turning Point Can Be In Play

Crude oil turned down in the last few sessions, through the channel support line connected from 50 level, so we assume that leg from 48.00 is now a completed five wave move. If that is the case then market will make a minimum three wave decline, even if reversal will be corrective and temporary, but ideally move from the high will unfold in impulsive price action if we consider a corrective recovery on daily time frame; labeled as wave 4)

Crude OIL 4h Elliott Wave…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on May 8, 2015 at 8:51am — No Comments

EURUSD Could Face Resistance At 1.1400 Level

EURUSD is at new high as expected, now trading in fifth wave of wave (C) that is approaching important 1.1400 level. In that region we see several Fibonacci level that can be very important for further direction on EURUSD. Keep in mind that we see wave (C) in late stages of an uptrend, so new bearish reversal could occur in sessions ahead. Ideally, market will turn back to 1.1065 in impulsive fashion in days ahead, maybe after the NFP report tomorrow.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on May 7, 2015 at 8:19am — No Comments

USDCHF Looks For Support Near 0.9200

USDCHF fell to a new low last week, beneath 0.9400 level and extended to 161.8% Fibonacci zone. We have seen a break out of a bearish triangle in wave B), so pair can be in final leg down of a big contra-trend move. That said, a reversal in price to the upside should not be a surprise in days ahead, but for now we do not see any low in place yet, so we need to keep in mind potential sell-off to our second support near 0.9200. Divergence on the RSI also suggest that pair is in a final stages…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on May 6, 2015 at 11:19am — No Comments

EURUSD May Face Resistance At 1.13001.1400 Level

EURUSD turned up in March, but for now only with three waves back into the area of a former wave four. So we believe that rally is corrective, most likely of a black wave IV which is now trading also close to 38.2%. That's ideal Fibonacci level for fourth wave, so new bearish reversal could occur sometime this month. Technical resistance is seen at 1.1300-1.1400.

EURUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on May 5, 2015 at 8:24am — 4 Comments

GOLD Is Expected To Continue Higher Towards 1240

Despite recent decline to new swing low we see gold trapped in range so our view remains unchanged. We see three legs from 1220 so price is expected to continue higher, especially after recent strong rally from 1175 and slightly above the upper line of a corrective channel. That said, we assume that wave b) is completed and that we will see higher prices within wave c) of (b) that can be targeting 1240 once 1220 is taken out.

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 28, 2015 at 11:01am — No Comments

USDCAD Looks For Support At 38.2% Fibonacci Level

USDCAD is making a deep retracement but still with three waves from the highs with current wave C) approaching to 38.2% Fibonacci level where it may complete a corrective fourth wave. Despite a strong bearish turn last week, we see big trend bullish, so we would not be surprised if pair will find support this week. Ideally, market will move back above 1.2400 that will put wave (5) in play for a new high. On the downside pair could be looking for a support at 1.1900-1.2000…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 27, 2015 at 12:27pm — No Comments

EURUSD May Face Resistance Near By 1.0900

Traders are pushing the EURUSD pair higher today, durign the Eurogroup Meeting on positive expectations regarding the deal with a Greece. However, no one knows when the official statements will be out, so actually gains on the pair can be failure. Technicals on the EURUSD are showing an A-B-C rally from 1.0520 with current wave C in play, but at resistance levels near 1.0900. Second resistance level for the euro is seen at 1.0900 so any bullish waves could stop there. Only sharp rise and…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 24, 2015 at 8:33am — No Comments

GBPUSD: Sooner Or Later We Will See Reversal Down

GBPUSD moved to a new high as expected so we see price now in fifth wave of wave C), which means that sooner or later we should see a reversal down. Ideally this will occur from around 1.5161 resistance. We anticipate a sharp turn down into wave (5) as whole movement from mid-March can be a flat correction in wave (4).

GBPUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 23, 2015 at 8:12am — No Comments

EURUSD Looks For Lower After Finding Short Term Resistance

Most of the USD pairs are mixed, but sideways, so mostly our views did not change. We still think that the buck is in big correction against the other currencies which are expected to weaken over the coming days.



On EURUSD we see price in the middle of a big triangle, currently with bearish view for wave C) down in (D). Resistance on short-term charts comes in around 1.0800 which should hold today. If price will go higher than that then we will look for wave X) low at…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 22, 2015 at 9:30am — No Comments

USDCAD Wave Analysis: Beware Of Bullish Turn

USDCAD fell sharply last week so obviously corrective wave (4) is much bigger and more complex. An updated count shows break down out from a triangle placed in wave B), so wave C) is now in play; final leg of a contra-trend move from 1.2833 high. With that said, bullish turn may still follow in the future, maybe already at the start of the week as wave C) reached important equality level compared to wave A). If pair will bounce in five waves and go through 1.2330 resistance that this would…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 21, 2015 at 8:09am — No Comments

Cable Remains Bearish Within Downward Channel

Cable is turning sharply higher from its lows but price remains trapped in a downward channel so trend is considered as bearish. That said, current rally from mid-March can be irregular correction in wave (4) that can stop at the upper trendline, so be aware of a new turn down later this month.

GBPUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 20, 2015 at 8:01am — 3 Comments

EURUSD Could Continue Downtrend From 1.0700 Resistance

EURUSD found a support this week and rallied back above 1.0700 resistance area that we highlighted it in our past updates. As such, we need to beware of a bearish turn in sessions ahead, back to the lows while this resistance holds. Ideally market will continue down into wave three especially if Eur will be able to took out the 1.0565 swing.

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 16, 2015 at 8:26am — No Comments

EURUSD & USDCHF: Elliott Wave Morning Review

On EURUSD intraday chart we are looking at bearish wave structure, meaning that weakness is expected as rally from the low can be counted in three legs. Ideally we have seen a top at 1.0708 so acceleration down can be in the cards, which means that EURUSD could revisit the lows.

EURUSD 1h Elliott Wave Analysis

USDCHF is showing same wave structure, pointing…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 15, 2015 at 8:37am — No Comments

USDCHF Is Expected To Rally After Short-term Retracement To 0.9620-0.9690 Support

USDCHF is turning higher, now already well above the upper line of a downward channel which is an important signal that corrective retracement from 1.0129 is finished. Current rise through 0.9755 swing is also confirming a change in trend. As such, more upside is expected in April, especially after a red wave 2) that could be very nice for swing trade on the bullish side. Support for wave two comes in at 0.9620-0.9690.…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 14, 2015 at 8:14am — No Comments

GBPUSD Targeting 1.4300-1.4200 In Weeks Ahead

Cable finished the week at the lows so we assume that latest corrective move is now complete, labeled as wave (4), and that price is now underway to lower levels within wave (5) that can be targeting 1.4200/1.4300 zone in weeks ahead.

GBPUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 13, 2015 at 8:05am — No Comments

EURUSD: Downtrend Back In Play

EURUSD keeps trading lower, with yesterdays close beneath 1.0710 support which puts bearish price action in play. An updated count now shows a completed wave IV triangle so downtrend is expected to continue into black wave V, back to 1.0458 level. Short-term invalidation level is at 1.0888

EURUSD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 10, 2015 at 7:45am — No Comments

USDCAD Is Ready To Take Bullish Run

USDCAD has been trading lower in the last couple of weeks but this can be changing now as decline from 1.2833 is counted in three waves, possibly a complete corrective set-back after recent strong impulsive recovery from 1.2386. As such, we expect more gains in sessions ahead, especially after wave 2 that could show up in the next 24-48 trading hours.

USDCAD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 9, 2015 at 8:21am — No Comments

GOLD May Face Resistance At 1240-1255

Gold moved to a new swing high after very bad NFP figures on Friday, so metal is already in wave c) now, final leg of a zigzag from 1142 low. As such, upside can be limited as corrective rally can be in final stages. We however see Fibonacci resistance area at 1240/1255 from where new bearish impulse can show up

GOLD 4h Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 8, 2015 at 8:27am — No Comments

Aussie Has Room For Much Lower Levels

AUDUSD fell to a new low as expected, so we see prices in wave (5) now that can extend even down to 0.7200 level where we see 38,2% projection of wave (3) distance measured from end of a blue wave (4). As such, there is room for much lower levels for Aussie that can be reached in April. Trend remains down as long as price trades beneath the trendline connected from blue waves (2) and (4).

AUDUSD Daily Elliott Wave Analysis…

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Added by Gregor Horvat on April 7, 2015 at 8:53am — No Comments

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