Yohay Elam's Blog (908)

GBP/USD Outlook April 21-25

GBP/USD continued to climb against the US dollar last week. The pair posted modest gains, closing at 1.6782. This week’s highlight is Retail Sales. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

The pound got some help from solid UK employment numbers, as …

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 20, 2014 at 5:36pm — No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast Apr. 21-25

EUR/USD fell lower on a Sunday gap and could never retake the previous levels. Will the attempts to talk down the euro succeed? PMIS and a speech from ECB president Mario Draghi are the key events. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

Draghi made his mark once again: he …

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 20, 2014 at 6:42am — No Comments

EUR/USD April 17 – Euro Firm After Yellen Comments

EUR/USD has moved higher on Thursday, as the euro continues to take advantage of dovish comments by Fed chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. The pair is trading in the mid-1.3860 in the European session. Today’s sole Eurozone release, German PPI, declined last month, as Eurozone inflation indicators remain weak. In the US, we’ll get a look at Unemployment Claims and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index later in the…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 17, 2014 at 10:43am — No Comments

EUR/USD Apr. 16 – Recovers despite soft inflation, ahead of US housing data

EUR/USD managed to stage a gradual recovery reconquering the 1.3830 line. Less than impressing inflation figures from the euro-zone capped further significant advances. A wide range of FOMC speakers, including Yellen, as well as US housing data will set the tone later in the day.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 16, 2014 at 9:57am — No Comments

EUR/USD April 15 – Dips below 1.38 ahead of key German figure, Yellen's speech

EUR/USD continues sliding, following the gap lower in the wake of the new week. The comments from Draghi tying the exchange rate to monetary policy still echo and markets are still digesting the US retail sales number. Was it good enough? There is no rest for markets, as the German ZEW figure is coming soon, as well as a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen.

Here is a quick update on the technical…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 15, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast Apr 14-18

EUR/USD made an impressive comeback, breaking above the downtrend channel. Will the ECB talk the euro down, or is 1.40 the next target? Final CPI numbers and an important German survey are the highlights. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The pair was already advancing nicely when the …

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 13, 2014 at 6:40am — No Comments

EUR/USD April 11 – Tops 1.39 as dollar sell off continues

No mercy for the US dollar. EUR/USD continues higher and has already topped 1.39. The pair continues in the same pattern of rising, pausing and continuing higher, without any real pullbacks. The dovish FOMC minutes continue weighing and the rise of the euro continues despite unimpressive inflation numbers from the old continent. To close the week we have the US PPI and consumer confidence. Can 1.40 be…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 11, 2014 at 8:13am — No Comments

EUR/USD April 10 – Gains Continue Following Dovish Fed Minutes

EUR/USD continues its impressive rally, as the pair trades in the mid- 1.38 range in Wednesday’s European session. The euro has now gained about 160 pips this week against the sagging dollar. On Wednesday, Federal Reserve minutes indicated that policymakers discussed interest rate levels but did not reach any decisions regarding a rate hike. On Thursday, French and Italian manufacturing numbers fell short of their…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 10, 2014 at 10:33am — No Comments

EUR/USD breaks one downtrend resistance line; one more to go

In the weekly EURUSD forecast we mentioned that the pair is trading in two downtrend channels. The recent dollar weakness not only helped it escape from downtrend support, but also break out out of two downtrend resistance lines.

If this break is confirmed, the second downtrend line could be challenged soon. However, this is already a longer running line, and €/$ might find it harder to break…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 8, 2014 at 4:14pm — No Comments

EUR/USD April 8 – Gains Continue As ECB Keeps Options Open

EUR/USD continues to point upwards on Tuesday, as the pair trades in the mid-1.37 range in the European session.  The euro received some help as ECB policymakers said non-conventional easing measures are possible. It’s another quiet day on the release front. In the Eurozone, the French trade deficit narrowed last month, dropping to its lowest level in more than three years. In the US, today’s highlight is JOLTS Job…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 8, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments

GBP/USD Forecast April 7-11

GBP/USD lost close to a cent last week, as the pair closed at 1.6567. This week’s highlight is Manufacturing Production. Here is an outlook for the main events moving the pound, and an updated technical analysis for GBP/USD.

British PMIs missed their estimates last week, and the pound responded with losses. In the US, …

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 6, 2014 at 7:48pm — No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast Apr 7-11

EUR/USD fell for the third consecutive week. Is this the beginning of a downtrend or just part of a necessary correction? German Industrial Production, trade balance, French Industrial Production, ECB Monthly Bulletin and the G20 meetings are the highlights of this week. Here is an outlook on the highlights of this week and an updated technical analysis for EUR/USD.

The ECB decided on…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 6, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments

EUR/USD Apr. 4 – Stuck in low ground after Draghi, ahead of NFP

EUR/USD is trading in low ground after the blow it received from Draghi, which managed to push down the euro with strong rhetoric, but without action. The focus now shifts to the US with the all important Non-Farm Payrolls. Expectations are high. Will this lead to a disappointment and a recovery of the pair? Or will it set the next leg of the downfall?

Here is a quick update on the technical situation,…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 4, 2014 at 9:27am — No Comments

EUR/USD – Listless Ahead of Key US Employment Data

EUR/USD is showing limited movement on Wednesday, as the pair trades slightly below the 1.38 line in the European session. On the release front, Spanish Unemployment Change dropped to a three-month low and easily beat the estimate. Today’s highlight is ADP Nonfarm Payrolls, a key indicator.

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that moves…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 2, 2014 at 10:36am — No Comments

EUR/USD April 1 – Euro Firm After Yellen’s Dovish Comments

EUR/USD has edged higher on Tuesday, as the pair trades just shy of the 1.38 line in the European session. In economic news, Federal Reserve chair surprised the markets when she said that the US economy would require monetary stimulus for some time. It’s a busy day in the Eurozone. PMI releases met expectations, while German Unemployment Claims beat the estimate for a fourth straight time. There was more good news, as…

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Added by Yohay Elam on April 1, 2014 at 9:44am — No Comments

EUR/USD – Dips Below 1.38 As German Consumer Climate Stays Firm

EUR/USD has edged lower on Wednesday, as the pair trades just shy of the 1.38 line in the European session. In economic news, German Consumer Climate remains at high levels and matched the forecast. In the US, Tuesday’s numbers were a mix. Consumer Confidence hit a six-year high, but New Home Sales slipped in February. Wednesday’s key release is Core Durable Goods Orders. The markets are expecting a much smaller gain…

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Added by Yohay Elam on March 26, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments

EUR/USD – Rangebound As German Business Climate Softens

EUR/USD remains boxed in on Tuesday, as the pair continues to trade in the low-1.38 range in the European session. On the release front, German Ifo Business Climate weakened in February but met expectations. Later today, ECB head Mario Draghi will speak at an event in Paris. In the US, we’ll get a look at CB Consumer…

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Added by Yohay Elam on March 25, 2014 at 10:59am — No Comments

EUR/USD March 24 – France giveth, Germany taketh away

EUR/USD started the new week on a path of recovery, and got a boost from positive French PMIs. The effect was short lived though, as a slowdown in Germany held it back. The ongoing tension in Ukraine is also watched and so is China, as the quarter draws to an end. Can the common currency grind back up towards 1.40?

Here is a quick update on the technical situation, indicators, and market sentiment that…

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Added by Yohay Elam on March 24, 2014 at 9:31am — No Comments

EUR/USD Forecast March 24-28

EUR/USD was not able to conquer 1.40 and was eventually hit hard. Is this a temporary dip or a change of courseFlash manufacturing and services PMIs, German Ifo Business Climate and inflation data are the main market-movers this week. Here is an outlook on the main events ahead.

The …

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Added by Yohay Elam on March 23, 2014 at 8:19am — No Comments

EUR/USD March 21 – Bounces from the lows as Fed speeches awaited

EUR/USD managed to stabilize on lower ground following the Fed fallout. The intentions of the Fed will come under further scrutiny in three FOMC speeches. Will Yellen’s comment be watered down? In Europe, a positive current account figure is supporting a bounce. The Russia – Ukraine crisis still grabs the news headlines but has less impact on markets. How low will the pair end the week?

Here is a quick…

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Added by Yohay Elam on March 21, 2014 at 9:59am — No Comments

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