The Japanese yen was the top-performing G10 currency over the past two years. If the yen is going for a three-peat, it will have to dig itself out of a hole first.
The yen's slump this quarter became pronounced following a largely unexpected policy move by Japan's central bank on Valentine's Day. The Bank of Japan expanded its asset purchase program by 10 trillion yen and set its inflation target to 1 percent during its February 14 policy meeting. The recent turn of Japan's…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 30, 2012 at 11:30pm — No Comments
Concerns about Spain's ability to service its debt are brewing again.
Prime minister Mariano Rajoy, elected late last year, originally pledged to the European Commission to reduce Spain's budget deficit from the 2011 level of 8.5 percent of gross domestic product down to 4.4 percent. At a summit in Brussels on March 2, he made a surprise announcement that he would raise the country's deficit target to 5.8 percent.
Although Spain ultimately agreed on March 12 to a 5.3 percent…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 30, 2012 at 3:15am — No Comments
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 28, 2012 at 12:22am — No Comments
Wednesday's New York trading session brings the release of the US Census Bureau's advance report on manufacturers' shipments, inventories, and orders in February. A closely-watched metric from this report, due for release at 8:30 am New York time (12:30 GMT), is the orders for long-lasting factory goods, also known as durable goods orders (DGO). Seventy economists recently provided their DGO forecast to Bloomberg News; the median of those forecasts is a month-to-month rise of…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 27, 2012 at 7:15pm — No Comments
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Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 27, 2012 at 2:48pm — No Comments
The feature news report for Tuesday is the Conference Board's US Consumer Confidence Index, due for release at 10:00 am New York time (14:00 GMT).
This is not a report known for making a sizeable immediate impact on the major currency pairs. Evaluation of the initial post-news spikes [extreme of first post-news 1-minute candle from its open price] following release of the past twelve reports shows a median move of just 5 pips. The biggest EUR/USD post-news move in either direction…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 27, 2012 at 2:20am — No Comments
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke just finished delivering a speech titled "Recent Developments in the Labor Market" at the National Association for Business Economics Annual Conference. A visual summary of the speech:
When considering market speculation for or against another round of quantitative easing -- dubbed by many as QE3 -- by the Fed, remember that this is an election year in the United States. If the Fed is going to…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 26, 2012 at 12:30pm — No Comments
The results of the Ifo institute’s latest survey of 7,000 German business executives are due for release on Monday at 4:00 am New York time (08:00 GMT). The median forecast of 44 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News calls for the March business climate index to match February's reading of 109.6, a 7-month high.
The release of this report frequently has an immediate effect on EUR/USD price action – the euro has moved more than 20 pips during the first minute following the release of…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 26, 2012 at 1:49am — No Comments
Join me for commentary and analysis of the Monday Asia open. It is surely going to be an interesting week. Will the Euro be at 1.29 or 1.36 by the end of this week? How far will this USD/JPY pullback, will it continue long-term long?
These are just some of the questions we will be asking and analyzing. Look forward to seeing you…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 25, 2012 at 8:30pm — No Comments
As I mentioned here, Thursday's 120-pip drop in price on the EUR/USD was the biggest move in either direction by that currency pair during the European morning in two months. I considered multiple candidates for Trade of the Week (TOTW), but couldn't bring myself to pick anything over the euro short trade opportunity which materialized before that big drop.
A blend of technical analysis and news flow seemed to…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 23, 2012 at 8:00pm — No Comments
It's not unreasonable to conclude that the key to any significant, sustained reaction to tomorrow's US report will be a headline figure that breaks the pattern of blue bars to the right of the red vertical line on the above graph.
Currency Coach & Quantitative Analyst…
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 23, 2012 at 2:48am — No Comments
"At last, after weeks, London came back."
That was the proclamation made by one of the veteran members of FX Bootcamp in our live chat room during today's New York morning session.
To be sure, the London trading session made quite a splash today. The EUR/USD currency pair established its high of the day just north of the 1.3250 level soon after 3:15 am New York time (07:15 GMT), then proceeded to drop 120 pips over a period of about 160 minutes. By my reckoning, that's the…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 22, 2012 at 7:28pm — No Comments
News flow during Thursday's London session will include the latest retail sales figures for the United Kingdom. The monthly statistical bulletin on retail sales from the Office for National Statistics is due for release at 5:30 am New York time (09:30 GMT).
Initial market sensitivity to this report hasn't declined in recent months quite as much as it has to several other UK economic reports. As the following graph shows, the GBP/USD currency pair has jumped up by 30 to 40 pips during…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 22, 2012 at 4:05am — No Comments
On Wednesday at 5:30 am New York time (09:30 GMT), the Bank of England (BOE) is scheduled to release the minutes from the March 7-8 meeting of its 9-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). These minutes, published 13 days after the MPC meeting, can offer clues on the central bank's next policy move from the topics [not] discussed by the committee members.
This, like many other reports out of the United Kingdom, sparked significant volatility among the British pound pairs through the…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 21, 2012 at 3:51am — No Comments
FX Bootcamp will host this months special webinar at FX Street. Sign-up details can be found here.
The webinar is titled A Day In The Life Of A Forex Trader. I will be covering how I have developed my approach to trading, providing…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 20, 2012 at 4:17pm — No Comments
The United Kingdom's Office for National Statistics is scheduled to release its Consumer Price Indices report for February on Tuesday at 5:30am New York time (9:30 GMT).
The combination of fewer surprises in CPI readings over recent months plus lower volatility across the currency market has likely contributed to more muted responses of late on the pair known to many traders as cable:…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 20, 2012 at 4:01am — No Comments
Join me to day for live Asia Market Open Analysis. Today we will be covering the trade plans we made the in Monday's class, look at where the USD and JPY are going (I believe there maybe good opportunities this week for both). We also have Asssie RBA Meeting minutes due. Coach Curt will be bringing the latest on this!
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 19, 2012 at 8:32pm — No Comments
On Monday at 8:30 pm New York time (Tuesday 00:30 GMT), the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to release the minutes from the March 6 monetary policy meeting of the Reserve Bank Board.
Sustained moves on the AUD/USD currency pair have been relatively rare in response to this news event over the past year. In contrast to the Australian jobs report, which can move the AUD/USD by about 50 pips in either direction in just seconds (as discussed…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 19, 2012 at 7:09pm — No Comments
Do you select a "Trade of the Week" (TOTW) after Friday's London close?
My personal nominee for this week's TOTW happens to rank fairly high on the pip meter. The US dollar saw a sharp sell-off during Friday's New York morning session in what was its biggest move [up or down] against the euro over a two-hour period since the EUR/USD sell-off following Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke's Humphrey-Hawkins testimony to a US House Financial Services Committee on February 29.
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 16, 2012 at 9:16pm — No Comments
Can the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report add volatility to the currency market? In theory, I suppose the answer is yes.
The above graph notes that the average move on the EUR/USD currency pair following the release of the past eight CPI reports has been 10 pips.…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on March 16, 2012 at 2:27am — No Comments