Vladimir Mihaylov's Blog – November 2013 Archive (11)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 25.11.2013

After Wednesday's false move lower EUR returned back to 1.3560 resistance which holds the further upside for now. You have to allow the EUR to consolidate for the next 30 hours from the time of writing as there are no any important news from the EU and no news from the USA too. More economic data will be released on Wednesday when i expect the 1.3560 to be broken to the upside for at least 100 pips more. If that fails again, bears will take control and we shall watch for a break through…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 25, 2013 at 5:36am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 22.11.2013

EUR has made a correction higher as expected, but the upside is limited by the 1.3560 resistance. To restore the upside we need at least one H4 bar close above that. For now this seems quite difficult. The currency is supported by the ascending channel trendline and the resistances are the senkou span A at 1.3520 and Kijun Sen at 1.3560. Breaking below Tenkan Sen @ 1.3470 will lead to a new test of 1.3400 and a clear break of the last will set the target at 1.3100. The analysis above is made…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 22, 2013 at 7:16am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 21.11.2013

EUR dropped 100 pips for less than 10 minutes, following an unexpected news release from the ECB. This has triggered my short scenario as the pair has broken 1.3460 support. Currently the EUR trades around 1.3420 support. The strong move from yesterday still prevents the market players from entering the market and the trade is very calm. Today probably we shall test the 1.3460 once again. If not successful then more downside will follow and it will be even stronger. On H4 frame it is a…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 21, 2013 at 9:43am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 20.11.2013

Today is the FOMC rate decision and the market will look for some more hints about tapering. The silence  around the tapering maintains the pressure over the dollar. Better data from Germany helped the EUR to bounce from 1.3485 support and to reach 1.3578 in the beginning of todays trade. In fact i expected this to happen earlier yesterday. The price hit 1.3578 where is the SMA200 on H4 as expected. Now we are going to consolidate below that line today and will try to break it through the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 20, 2013 at 6:17am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 19.11.2013

Following the good economic releases on yesterday EUR climbed up and reached my first target at 1.3530. Today after testing the 1.3490 support EUR maintains the bullish tone as Germany's ZEW will be released today. This will be the main market mover for the day. Better than previous data is forecasted, but we shall see what will be the real data. If the forecasted value is confirmed the EUR will try to reach 1.3600 level and to test SMA200. First attempt will be unsuccessful so you may enter…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 19, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 18.11.2013

EUR is moving with some bullish tone as the market is optimistic about the economic data from the EU in days ahead. Dollar weakness is due to wednesday's FOMC meeting and the uncertainty about tapering. Speculations that FED may delay tapering for some months more are causing the pressure over the dollar which will increase in the following 2-3 days. We can clearly see the 'flag' formation on H4 frame which may extend to 1.3530-40 area where is the Senkou span B of the negative Ichimoku. We…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 18, 2013 at 8:05am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.11.2013

EUR has tested 1.3500 area as expected but the first attempt to break higher has failed. Currently the currency is testing the 1.3450 support which is quite important as it is the downside border of an upside channel. If 1.3450 fails the next support is at 1.3415 and 1.3405. Upside target for today will be 1.3545. To the donwside if 1.3405 is lost then all eyes will be at 1.3360 if that fails too then the next target will be 1.3215 and 1.3180. H1, H4 and Daily indicators show mixed signals…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 14, 2013 at 7:35am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 11.11.2013

EUR is still at the support 1.3360, and the positive news from USA didn't move the pair. Somewhere around  1.3320 EUR finds buyers and this doesn't allow the price to go any deeper. Current situation may lead to a near term and short lived reversal back to 1.3500 as it is a little bit early to brak the positive Ichimoku on Daily. Another interesting thing is than we have the SMA200 on Weekly passing through 1.3300-1.3320 area, which gives an additional support to the EUR. So testing of…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 11, 2013 at 6:00am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 08.11.2013

EUR dropped 200 pips after ECB rate cut yesterday, then pullbacked 100 pips and is waiting for today's economic data release from the USA, positive news from Germany still doesn't move the market. Indicators on almost all time frames are negative after yesterday's drop, and i expect more downside movement ahead.

GOLD still shows no reaction to the events i expect the current consolidation to bearish tone to continue for today.

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.3450 SL 1.3470…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 8, 2013 at 7:17am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.11.2013

Following some days of consolidation, EUR is going to make some more correction to the upside before the new leg down. This is expected to happen today through the american session. Mr.Draghi will also speak, and on his speech depends further direction. However i do not expect for him to say something surprising. This will make the EUR move quickly to the upside to meet the 1.3630 resistance which is pretty strong and will bounce back. Upon loosing 1.3520 the downside will continue to 1.3430… Continue

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 7, 2013 at 5:49am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 04.11.2013

Finally long waited correction has come, everybody knew that the EUR is overestimated and there is no reason to buy EUR because nothing so good has happened in Eurozone. The main reason was because of the US government shutdown problems and silence of the FED about tapering. These days EUR dropped heavily to the positive Ichimoku. In fact i expected this to happen some 10 days earlier. Please turn your platform in Weekly mode and you will see that the pair is forming a triangle in which it…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 4, 2013 at 5:54am — 4 Comments

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