Vladimir Mihaylov's Blog – November 2012 Archive (20)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 30.11.2012

Today is the last day of the week and of the month, also today there will be a vote for Greece's money in Germany. There will be no problems and Greece will recieve the new help soon, noone expects any surprises. But a high volatility may present the whole day. The top is limited by 1.3070 and the bottom by  1.2870. Currently we are almost in the middle of that range. Pay attention at any moment because if we reach 1.3030-50 a risk aversion may occur, taking the price back to 1.29 and…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 30, 2012 at 7:38am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 29.11.2012

Yestarday dollar firmed up against the EUR and GOLD both and GOLD dropped over 40 dollars for less than 4h,really a huge drop. For today the outlook is still gold negative with targets around 1700. EUR quickly has recovered the losses and closed the day at 1.2950. Next week we shall determine the final direction and is good to know that daily close below 1.2860 will signal a massive EUR sell. For now despite the 2 days of EUR sell indicators are still pointing a little upside. Rally will…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 29, 2012 at 5:39am — 10 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 28.11.2012

For today:

LONG EUR @ 1.2890 SL1.2850 TP 1.2950

or

LONG EUR @ 1.2860 SL 1.2840 TP 1.2950

on H4 close below 1.2860 do not enter LONG anymore

SHORT EUR below 1.2840 SL 1.2870 TP below 1.2800

GOLD is again in a corective move, 

may try to enter LONG GOLD above 1735 SL 1731 TP 1750

below 1730 do not enter long

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 28, 2012 at 6:33am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 27.11.2012

EUR is building a 'flag' formation on Daily, but upside is currently blocked by the Ichimoku cloud border @ 1.2980. Finally we have a agreement on the next money transfer to Greece, but seems the news is already consumed as no significant gains are visible. So from now on we shall pay more attention to the economic news from EU and USA. There is no much to say and for today my forecast will be same as yesterday's:

LONG EUR above 1.2930 SL1.2910 TP 1.3030-60

SHORT EUR only on H4…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 27, 2012 at 5:55am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 26.11.2012

EUR finally got above the MA200 and as forecasted reached 1.2990 on Friday. The German data helped a lot despite differences on agreement for the next money transfer to Greece. These differences must be cleared today and the market's hopes will drive the EUR today. EUR is now again at the top of the positive Ichimoku and is trying to break it and to stay above. 1.2930 is a good support for now. I expect for it today to hold. If we have a positive decision for Greece EUR will continue the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 26, 2012 at 5:00am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 22.11.2012

EUR continued bullish move as forecasted and this morning we have a new maximum @ 1.2867. Currently a pullback is in place and the price returned to 1.2840. The upside is very slow and difficult as the european financial ministers still have differences in taking a decision about the next bailout money transfer to Greece. Next meeting will be on Monday, so until then we will not be able to gain above 1.2885-1.2895 and the best thing to do is to use that for a sell point with target 1.2800 or…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 22, 2012 at 5:48am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 20.11.2012

EUR is still capped by the MA200 on Daily @ 1.2810-20. A Daily close above that level will take us to 1.2920, where will make some attempts to break the 1.2990 zone, if unsuccessful, then a drop to 1.2400 may follow. If now we break the resistance 1.2820 it will become a very important support. In future breaking lower of 1.2820-1.2800 will be a signal for a massive selling, please remember this!

My short term outlook for the EUR is bullish, and i mean bullish for the next several…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 20, 2012 at 5:43am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 19.11.2012

EUR perforemed a flat consolidation in a range between 1.2720 and 1.2790. For today i'm expecting the same to continue between 1.2700 and 1.2775. Only a Daily close above 1.2820 will make the outlook more bullish in short term. We have A Daily Ichimoku border @ 1.2650 and if broken EUR will be sold heavily which may bring the price well below 1.2600. If we have a Daily close above 1.2820, bull will take control but only to reach 1.2920. If break of it is unsuccessfull bears will take the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 19, 2012 at 6:09am — 7 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD foecast 16.11.2012

Yesterday we have made an unsuccessful test of 1.2800 as forecasted, then EUR entered a negative Ichimoku on H4 chart. Currently EUR is trying to stay into that cloud with the possibility to break it higher, but this will depend highly on US negative news, as there is a lack of any EU positive news.

On H4 we are LONG as long as the bar closes above 1.2750, if we have a H4 bar closing below 1.2750 you should reconsider you LONG position. On Daily indicators still point to the downside,…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 16, 2012 at 5:54am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 15.11.2012

EUR is trying to form a support zone around 1.2700 which for now is still pretty unstable. The price is fighting with the top border of the downside channel and late yesterday was made an unsuccessful attempt to break it. As long the price is above 1.2700-10 EUR is able to do a rally to 1.2800-40. If we have a H4 bar closed below 1.2700 enter short for 1.2650-1.2620. From now on a Daily close below 1.2660 will mean a fall to 1.2400 at least. We are now inside a positive Ichimoku on Daily and…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 15, 2012 at 5:30am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.11.2012

Another day of upmove and downmove has passed, again with small volatility. EUR is still in a downside channel, however for now 1.2660 holds. Again bad data from Germany, which is good because ECB in fact needs a cheap EUR, but the speculations about the start of ECB bond buying  have done a bad favor increasing the price, which does much more difficulties for the countries in trouble. We are very near to the positive Ichimoku bottom @ 1.2660, break below will take us to 1.2600 and maybe…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 14, 2012 at 5:35am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 13.11.2012

Yesterday's trade offered low volatility and moves in range between 1.2740 and 1.2690, EUR did a 50 pips drop on a bad data from Germany, and was under selling pressure through the whole day, as Monday was a non working day in USA, EUR was not able to do a recovery. This morning EUR dropped further - for now to 1.2672. The outlook is still negative as the EUR is in a very narrow downside channel and threatens to break the positive daily Ichimoku. Every upside recovery is used to open new…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 13, 2012 at 6:00am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 12.11.2012

As expected though ECB left the rate unchanged EUR continued to fall but more slowly and on Friday it reached 1.2690. Currently EUR is trading @ 1.2727, but is stopped by the resistance @ 1.2730 which if broken will lead to 1.2770-80 where is the border of the descending channel from there of course we shall have 2 options - to continue the upside to 1.2830 or to start new selling for 1.2605. Today euromembers will decide whether to make the next money transfer to Greece - but i think the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 12, 2012 at 5:28am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 09.11.2012

EUR was calm after the rate unchanged by the ECB, now all wait for Monday's decision about next money transfer to Greece, which will be a fact for sure, but market need some stimulus to exit this strange situation of artificial volatility. Meanwhile EUR still is trading within a downside channel. It was not able to go below 1.2720, currently trades @ 1.2775 and the first resistance is 1.2800, second is 1.2850 and third 1.2905. At 1.2930 passes the MA200 on H4 frame which will cap any upside…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 9, 2012 at 4:52am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 08.11.2012

EUR bulls gave up in yesterday's fight too and EUR made a full reversal of the day dropping to 1.2736  from 1.2855 in less than 2 hours. So my bullish scenario has failed but bearish became true. On Daily we are going deeper and deeper into the positive Ichimoku, no matter it is very wide, and its Senkou Span B passes through 1.2606-1.2626 zone where i think the bulls will be in control. Yesterday was just a test of  Senkou Span A @ 1.2878 which was unsuccessful. EUR now is in a downside…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 8, 2012 at 4:35am — 5 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.11.2012

EUR has made a difficult rally, i've expected it to happen yesterday, but EUR dropped even further to 1.2763. At last the long needed correction is a fact. As expected Obama is the new president of the USA, manipulating the economic data did good job, now it's time for the real US data. In eurozone the situation is even worse, today there is an important vote in Greece for adoption a new budget cuts plan, and next monday on 12 nov, euromembers will decide for the new money transfer to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 7, 2012 at 5:32am — 5 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 06.11.2012

USD is showing muscles these days, and all currencies including gold run from it like mice from a cat. Like i've said yesterday EUR needs a corrective move higher - it didn't happen yesterday so today will be the correction day. We need a confirmation for example H4 close above 1.2805-10 will be enough. First resistance is 1.2840-50, second and stronger is 1.2880-1.2900. That last will bounce and the prices will return to 1.2820, from where there will be two possibilities - first to attack…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 6, 2012 at 4:00am — 6 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 05.11.2012

EUR fell across the board on Friday following a lot better than expected NFP release. My suggestion was the same for that release and i've told you what i'm thinking about all the economic data before the presidential elections. Despite that chances of Obama and Romney are equal. I think that Obama will win  and that will mean continuing with the same FED policy. Remember that Romney has said if he wins the elections Bernarke has to look for a new job. If Romney wins tomorrow that will place…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 5, 2012 at 5:00am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 02.11.2012

After the big 'tennis' day on Thursday we have started the last day of this week with a slow sliding move towards relaxation 1.29 zone. We have good supporting trendline @ 1.2880 which holds the downside for nearly 2 months, and to the upside 1.3000-30 level which can be called the twilight zone - where the bears gain magical powers and beat the bulls. Two weeks have passed between these two zones and the trade is becoming very boring. Today the same will present too, noone will risk to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 2, 2012 at 5:37am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 01.11.2012

EUR did another desperate move in looking for direction but still without success. We have ended the day  a little below the opening price and have formed so called "gravestone" candlestick or its similar - bearish falling star. Both candlesticks need confirmation to signal reverse, the problem is that we have just one candlestick to the upside, so better not talk about trend reversal. I think Tuesday's upside is just a correction move. The correction move may continue or may end. Which of…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 1, 2012 at 5:32am — No Comments

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