Vladimir Mihaylov's Blog – August 2013 Archive (14)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 30.08.2013

EUR has finally dropped down after some weeks of waiting and consolidating at the top. Now it stopped at the diagonal support and the bottom line of the ascending channel at 1.3220. A break lower will target 1.3140 and 1.3100. Breaking below the last is less possible this week. Seems that the war in Syria will start Saturday night, when all the UN inspectors are gone, but USA doesn't care about them so much, the main reason is that all markets will be closed. Remember the money move the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 30, 2013 at 5:06am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 29.08.2013

After several hours of consolidating just below 1.3400 EUR reversed to the downside and tested 1.3300 support then pullbacked to 1.3330-40 zone of stability. First resistance comes at 1.3355  and next is the well known 1.3405, finally 1.3450. Currently EUR is supported by Senkou Span B of the positive Ichimoku on H4, and the price is trying to break it lower, however it is a bit early for that. If we succeed to break lower first target will be yesterday's low and if we have a fresh low…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 29, 2013 at 4:54am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 28.08.2013

EUR is playing trics once again as it still locked in 60 pips range between 1.3330-1.3390. Better than expected data from Germany was a stimulus for the bulls and they appeared around the 1.3330 area which shows this is a major support level. Breaking lower of that level will take the pair at least 200 pips below. On the other hand, H1 closed above 1.3400 will open the way for breaking 1.3450 and if we have a success next target will be 1.3510-40. However with the new month beginning i…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 28, 2013 at 5:43am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD update 27.08.2013

EUR has totally fell asleep for almost a week. There are extremely low movements in 20-30 pips range which have made techincal indicators run flat. The pair finds buyers around 1.3330-40 but the power is not enough to break the 1.3400 resistance so the pair is locked within 1.3340-1.3390 range. This state seems to continue for the next 2-3 days at least, maybe more. EUR will not make significant moves before September, so you'd better sit back and relax. This was the main reason for not…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 27, 2013 at 7:16am — 8 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 21.08.2013

EUR jumped higher yesterday reaching the resistance 1.3450, then pullbacked some 30 pips to 1.3420 and is currently trading around that level. I think EUR is overestimated, and the prices at the moment do not reflect the situation in EU area. The current price jump is mostly influenced by the bad data from the US than good data from the EU. In this relation it is most important what FOMC will do in September. If they start to limit the stimulus program, then dollar will become very…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 21, 2013 at 4:00am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 19.08.2013

On last Friday EUR was not able to progress above 1.3380 and some of the traders prefered to take their profit. The currency pair reached 1.3310 and closed the day around the support area 1.3320-30. Currently we are still there and as long as the pair trades above 1.3300, the upside is still quite possible. If the price stays above 1.3300 until the american session start , H1 model shows another test of 1.3360-80 is possible. Progress above that will be hard as there is no important news…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 19, 2013 at 5:47am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 16.08.2013

After the volatile Thursday EUR trades calmly above 1.3340. Yesterday the EUR did a false downmove and quickly reversed to the upside reaching 1.3362 in the late american session. Currently the EUR battles with the Senkou Span A of the positive Ichimoku on H4. With the beginning of the european session some news will be released the forecasted values can support the EUR, but i think we are going towards 'double top' or 'lower top' scenario today. Losing 1.3280 level will open the way to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2013 at 6:19am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 15.08.2013

EUR was well supported by the good economic data from EU yesterday as teh market was disappointed from the US data releases too. These didn't allow the price to break 1.3240 lower and today's trade started  with recovery towards 1.3300. Currently the EUR upside is capped by the intermediate resistance zone between 1.3290-1.3310, on breaking above my yesterday's long position will be triggered. If you remember i was long above 1.3330 with SL 1.3310. Today's economic releases are expected to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 15, 2013 at 4:30am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.08.2013

EUR has finally escaped the price trap and turned south as expected. Seems that the news from the USA influenced the market stronger than these from Germany. Today GDP values for Germany will be released and Producer price index for the US, to the outlook will be the same as yesterday - rising first and then sell. Currently EUR is trading below the resistance area of 1.3270-80. To restore the upside we need a H4 close above 1.3320 which i think will be hard. Today's target will be 1.3175-85…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 14, 2013 at 5:04am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 12.08.2013

EUR has opened the new week with a downside gap. This is a good signal that probably we have reached a top at 1.3400 and will be no more upside. On Daily we have a great need of correction move lower. First support is 1.3295. Today we have no so important economic data, except the Federal budget. Better than expected value will increade the downside pressure over the EUR. On Tuesday we shall have the consumer price index for Germany, Germany's ZEW and US retail sales releases - some very…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 12, 2013 at 5:19am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 06.08.2013

EUR is still looking for a direction. This morning the currency is under a slight downside pressure but still manitains the price levels above 1.3200. All indicators on H4 and H1 are going flat, giving no clue to where will the price go in the hours ahead. If we are not able to break and close above 1.3300 today, EUR will come under selling pressure with first target 1.3205 and then 1.3170 and finally 1.3140. The market is waiting for Germany's Factory Orders data release later today and…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 6, 2013 at 6:52am — 7 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 05.08.2013

After the volatile Friday EUR trades calmly this morning around 1.3275. First resistance is a little above at 1.3310, then 1.3345 and finally 1.3405. This week is full of economic data from the Eurozone and the expected values are better than previous which have to support the currency. But we shall see what will be the actual values. On Daily all indicators point to the upside, except Stochastic. On Weekly we can see something interesting - if this week we have a bearish candle, that will…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 5, 2013 at 5:03am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 02.08.2013

Mr.Draghi did not say anything new, but only repeated his previous statement. The key phrase was that the interest rate will be kept at this level or lower for an extended period of time. However the market showed no reaction till now, the price has bounced from the 1.3260 resistance but the downside was capped by 1.3205. The false break to 1.3190 was short lived and the price quickly returned above the 1.3205 support. Yesterday's ISM release was a lot better than expected but despite that…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 2, 2013 at 5:21am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 01.08.2013

EUR has moved in both directions yesterday as in the end of the month such volatility is normal. This figured out the main support and main resistance levels. Main support is 1.3210 and main resistance is 1.3345. Today the market will look for any hints about the next rate cut by mr.Draghi at the ECB's pressconference. My technical outlook doesn't seem so bullish. I think it is time to test 1.3050 once again and maybe to drop below. Since 16.06 we are not able to record a new top, so i think…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 1, 2013 at 4:26am — No Comments

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