Vladimir Mihaylov's Blog – March 2013 Archive (20)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 29.03.2013

EUR price went up yesterday for a while because of partly profit taking ahead of the Good Friday holiday. Today most of the markets will remain closed and low volatility is expected. We shall have significant moves next week as the new month starts and after some recovery to the upside more EUR drop will follow. Seems that EUR fall has no end, the news of Cyprus is starting to fade as the country slowly is trying to return to normal life, they have recieved bailout aid, so everything is…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 29, 2013 at 5:50am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast

EUR is again in consolidation after the Moday's drop and currently trades around 1.2840 which is below MA200. Yesterday we have reached 1.2828 and then the price reversed back to 1.2880 then pullbacked to 1.2850. Still no news from the EU, no banks in Cyprus and no money in people's pocket. On the background we have the happy dollar gaining strenght all across the markets. GOLD also is turning south because of the dollar power. Indicators on all time frames point to the downside and i expect…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 27, 2013 at 5:56am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 26.03.2013

EUR has reversed yesterday and a huge drop followed the reverse on fears of possible Cyprus leaving the eurozone. Recovery is less possible from now on, because we have a daily close below MA200 and after some normal pullback downside will continue with next targets 1.2740 and 1.2680. Level 1.2750 is very important because there s the border of the upside recovery from 1.2040, breaking below combined with negative tendency in eurozone will open the way to 1.2040 again. Dark clouds over the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 26, 2013 at 5:30am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 25.03.2013

EUR went up higher on Friday despite the bad IFO data from Germany because many investors prefered to take their profit from SHORT-s and tune up for the correction move higher which has already started. Currently we have a draft agreement between EU-IMF and Cyprus and i think today or early tomorrow to have the final agreement. The overall reaction of the market will be positive i think, and it will be good to be bullish above 1.2970. Below 1.2950 we risk a drop at least to 1.2850 and may be…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 25, 2013 at 5:03am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 22.03.2013

EUR entered again in a stand by mode after the ECB set a deadline for Cyprus until Monday to meet the requirements for the bailout aid or to reject it at all. Today and important IFO release from Germany. The forecasted values are better than previous, but there are rumors that the IFO will be worse, so we may expect another drop before the IFO release. I think that MA200 will not be broken until the final decision for Cyprus is made, so i expect if we have a drop to 1.2840, somewhere around…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 22, 2013 at 5:52am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 21.03.2013

EUR has made a 100 pips recovery move yesterday as ECB decided to delay vote for Cyprus and weakening of the dollar positions due to mr.Bernarke's speech also helped a lot. For now seems that 1.2860 where passes MA200 is strong enough to hold the downside - but another important thing is that if it is broken will be very hard to break it higher, so it may open the way to prices below 1.2700. Today banks in Cyprus will open and people will start to withdraw their deposits. ECB won't let the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 21, 2013 at 4:00am — 5 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 20.03.2013

Cyprus rejected the levy on bank deposits and now its the Troika turn. There is no plan B for Cyprus for now, and in this relation EUR is under a huge downside pressure which pushed it down to MA200 on Daily. The pair is now trading just above MA200 and is ready to break it downside on any EUR negarive news. In other conditions this would be the perfect LONG entry point, but not now as we may drop even furthet by the end of this week. Today is the last day when the banks in Cyprus are…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 20, 2013 at 5:32am — 7 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 19.03.2013

EUR has opened the week with a huge gap downside the price almost reached the MA200 but not at all. Then a retracement of almost 100 pips occured and finally the price was locked around 1.2950. Now traders are looking for more news around Cyprus case and are careful when taking any position on the market. My yesterday's SL was hit, but the market moves were quite unpredictable with the spreading panic and destroyed indicators' outlook. Banks in Cyprus will be closed today and tomorrow so the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 19, 2013 at 5:59am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecst 18.03.2013

Fear has turned into a panic - EUR has lost nearly 180 pips since Friday close as it falls heavily across the board after the bad news from Cyprus. Who will be the first to leave the eurozone - we are waiting for the mrs.Merkel answer. This move has destroyed my short and mid term outlook, now seems we are going to test how strong is the MA200 support which is at 1.2860, if broken we are going to test the 1.2735-40 which is the lower border of the upside trend channel started from 1.2040 and…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 18, 2013 at 5:30am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 15.03.2013

EUR has dropped to 1.2910 yesterday but was unable to reach MA200, then the risk reverted and the pair reached 1.3030 in late amercan session following the better tnah expected jobless claims report. This 120 pips reverse move may be the beginning of the long waited correction move. The price this morning moves just below the resistance 1.3020-30. We have formed something like inverted H&S on H4 with 1.3025 neck line. It's quite possible today the move higher to continue. Immediate…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 15, 2013 at 5:55am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.03.2013

EUR was unable to break the 1.3070 resistance yesterday, and my upside scenario has failed. EUR formed a double top formation and together with the much better than expected economic data from US went deeper below 1.3000, triggering my short strategy. Downside move stopped at 1.2923 with a 50 pips pullback. Currently EUR is testing again 1.2940-50 support zone. Now previous support at 1.2980-1.3000 is clearly broken and has become a resistance. The best chance to break lower is this week and…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 14, 2013 at 5:54am — 13 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 13.03.2013

Another day of annoying consolidation has passed. Below 1.3000 level EUR quickly finds buyers and seems that we are close to a correction higher. For breaking 1.2940-60 we need a catalyzer, but for now there is no any in this situation some investors may wish to take part of the profit from SHORT-s and this will bring the correction in the pair. If we are able today to break successfully 1.3060 the upside move will accelerate and we can reach 1.3140-50, breaking above that will take us to…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 13, 2013 at 5:51am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 12.03.2013

There was an extremely low volatility yesterday, and only during the late american session EUR was able to progress to the upside reaching my first target. Currently the EUR trades around 1.3030 support and is quite vulnerable to another heavy drop. On H4 the price touched the Senkou Span A and was rejected from it and then unhappyly turned south. There is a wide negative Ichimoku above which will be hard to break with the recent news and economic data from the eurozone. Span B passes right…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 12, 2013 at 5:44am — 5 Comments

EUR USD & GOLD forecast 11.03.2013

EUR desperately is trying to find direction as is reached 1.3000 level. From one side we have some better recovery in the USA, but still with a fiscal cliff threat, and from the other side we have a spreading debt crisis in Europe and continuous active financial policy of the ECB with a no rate cut promise of its chairman. So in this situaton is very difficult to make a forecast only on fundamentals. Let's take a techical look. This week is the best chance to break lower if not today then in…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 11, 2013 at 6:01am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 08.03.2013

EUR jumped up higher after unsuccessful attempt to break the 1.2960-1.3000 support zone. It has formed a flag and yesterday's close above 1.3080 has put the EUR in a recovery mode. The recovery may continue as long as the price is above 1.3060, next target is the resstance area 1.3165-75 and above that 1.3220-1.3250. I expect somewhere ahead of 1.3300 to start the next leg down of course if 1.3175 is sucessfully broken - this is the necessary condition. We have the Ichimoku border on Weekly…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 8, 2013 at 6:00am — 8 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.03.2013

EUR preformed badly the recovery yesterday, witha a lot of uncertainty and as the result we have a drop to the lowest level supported by the better than expected US data. We have a tiny time frame of 5-6 days to break lower, so i think the investors will try their chance starting from today. Here i wish to add the forecasts of Societe Generale who expect EUR to fall to 1.2500 in the second quarter of the year, and Deutsche Bank who go even further to 1.1000 till the end of this summer. First…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 7, 2013 at 5:47am — 10 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 06.03.2013

EUR slowly moves to the upside after the huge drop which lasted the whole February. During ths we have cleared all the progress made in January, and now we are very close of breaking even lower. In her's new year's speech mrs.Merkel said there will be more diffuculties to deal with and that crisis in Europe is far from over, and mr.Dragh has said not everything is prefect but EU is already on the right track, debt crisis nears its end and all will be nice forever. I have told you that one of…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 6, 2013 at 5:41am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 05.03.2013

EUR preformed a flat consolidation yesterday and reached my first LONG target with today's Asia open. Currently EUR trades around 1.3030 but the upside seems pretty unstable. We weren't able to record a new low yesterday, so i think we have a temporary bottom for now set at 1.2966. The recovery may extend to 1.3150 at first stage and if broken we may reach even 1.3210 but not today, maybe later this week. We have a diagonal resistance line at 1.3220 which seems to strong to break to the…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 5, 2013 at 5:37am — 6 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 04.03.2013

EUR is still under heavy downside pressure, there are also speculations that ECB has to do a rate cut soon these rumors even have thrown a shadow over the fiscal cliff problem in the USA which seems to be still unsolved. In this situation the dollar firmed its positions against most of the currencies including GOLD too. The precious metal is now prepaired for another dive deeper. This morning's trade started very calmly because we are currently almost in the middle of the rance between…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 4, 2013 at 5:39am — 10 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 01.03.2013

EUR was unable to pass above resistance @ 1.3150-60 and with the bad USD GDP release reversed back to the downside to reach the bottom of the positive Ichimoku on Daily. Currently we are very close to break it lower. We have a good support at 1.2950-60 and i think it will hold the downside this week and will be a good point for a recovery to the upside. Weekly close below 1.3120 wil open the way to attack 1.2900 next week. We may see upside restoring only above 1.3310. There is a lot of…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 1, 2013 at 5:53am — 15 Comments

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