Vladimir Mihaylov's Blog – January 2013 Archive (21)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 31.01.2013

EUR has reached all my 3 targets for the long forecast scenario from yesterday, bulls have gained power again and pushed the price in the sky. All charts are bullish and do not give any signs of reverse. This means that a new top is going to be made. The question is how long this would continue and what price will be reached. We are currently above MA200, and any weekly close above will open the way for 1.40- 1.41, but i think that even the current price is too high and soon the baloon will…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 31, 2013 at 5:46am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 30.01.2013

EUR reversed yesterday making a new top at 1.3496 after dropping to 1.3414 in the mornig. In this way my long and short forecast have been trigered and i hope that you have made some good pips. For bulls is harder and harder to make a new progress, as we have opened yesterday at 1.3455 and reached only 40 pips higher. After the huge drop in amercan consumer conficence today the eurozone consumer confidence wll be released. But the top news for today will be from the USA again - ADP…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 30, 2013 at 5:33am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 29.01.2013

EUR keeps trying to find any futher direction and performed a range trade yesterday between 1.3425 and 1.3475, currently trading @ 1.3450. For today i am expecting a correction move for the EUR with targets 1.3405 and 1.3365-70. There is a few news today and i think that many traders will prefer to take part of the profit made by the recent rally. GOLD is in a correction move again with target 1670.

For today:

SHORT EUR below 1.3460 SL1.3475 TP 1.3405-1.3465



Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 29, 2013 at 5:30am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 28.01.2013

EUR rally continues well supported by mr.Draghi's speech at Davos, and the promise that european banks will pay back the money given to them as a financial help. Everything in Europe turns good with a promise only. This is the unique characteristic of the eurozone - if anything goes wrong, tell the markets it will be alright and all are going to believe you, and european leaders are similar to Gods. Over the Atlantic things are not good, but there are signs of stabilizing the house market…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 28, 2013 at 5:28am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 25.01.2013

We have closed the day above 1.3360, but seems that is not enough for the EUR to break 1.3400. Reaching the resistance many of the bulls became uncertain and prefered to wait. We have made a triple top at 1.3400. The major news for today will be the German's IFO business climate. If the release is better we may test the 1.3400 again. I doubt whether EUR will gain enough power to go above 1.3410, and that will be consideres as a fail to break the 1.3404 resistance and if the price after…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 25, 2013 at 5:49am — 7 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 24.01.2013

EUR is performing a consolidation within 1.3260-1.3360 range and on H4 entered the positive Ichimoku, and if in the next 48h from the time of writing the price is not able to close above 1.3360, then it will face the risk to drop 1.3170 and maybe below to 1.3060-30. The support remains 1.3260-70 if we have a daily close below that - then sell with a first target 1.3200 and second 1.3170, third 1.3120 and fourth 1.3060.

On the upside go long above 1.3360 with first target…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 24, 2013 at 4:41am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 23.01.2013

We had some big moves yesterday as i am calling such moves 'tennis'. EUR was locked in a pretty wide range a little bit over 100 pips and finally moves around 1.3310. Techincally the bullish outlook is not changed and all indicators on Daily still point to the upside, however a break below 1.3230 will change this, so be careful and below 1.3250 exit any longs. On H4 EUR is facing a large positive Ichimoku cloud, which it will try to break to the downside, but i think any attempt will be…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 23, 2013 at 5:20am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 22.01.2013

EUR remained in a very narrow range yesterday as noone wants to risk anything and prefered to wait for Martin Luter's day to pass as the markets in the USA were closed. Today with the Asia open EUR started climbing reaching my first long target from yesterday and heading for the next. Today's ZEW in Germany is expected to be better than the previous and market is encouraged to take more risk. Any ZEW value below expectation may cause EUR drop, so place stop loss and trail stops to guarantee…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 22, 2013 at 5:46am — 8 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 21.01.2013

EUR managed on Friday to break the 1.3400 resistance, but bulls prefered to take the profit and the currency dropped even below 1.3300. Now we are back to the comfortable 1.3320-30 area, where EUR feels good enough, and where bulls start making plans again. It is interesting to see that despite a huge drop on Friday, still indicators point to the upside and nothing has changed almost on all time frames. So i am bullish as long as the EUR price is above 1.3250. Once broken, EUR will drop 100…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 21, 2013 at 5:45am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 18.01.2013

EUR recovered from mid week losses and now is just below week's top at 1.3404. It is expected to make a new top today. The absolute target is MA200 @ 1.3485 but i am not sure if we shall reach it or somewhere below the bulls will start profit taking. Yesterday the EUR price was well supported by the good results of Spain's auction and the far more bad Philadelphia's index, even decreasing the jobless claims couldn't stop the desire of the bulls for a new top. Where will be the new top - well…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 18, 2013 at 5:30am — 6 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 17.01.2013

We have a range trade yesterday between 1.3250 and 1.3325, for now it is still present and breaking on one of these levels will take us at least 50-60 pips more in same direction. Today there aren't many news that can move hardly the market, so i suppose the two levels of the range to be tested again. We are going to have again choppy trade with a slight bullish tone as the price is above 1.3250. Below that the things may go to 1.3200 and even to 1.3170. 

GOLD moves in a very narrow…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 17, 2013 at 5:54am — 6 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 16.01.2013

Late yesterday EUR has reched my short target and continued to the downside. Evening star model was confirmed by the huge negative candle yesterday and the close price 1.3304. It is expected today to test the 1.3250 support and i don't see it to be broken so a new move upside will develop at least to 1.3340 and may be above. If the price goes again above 1.3350 then 1.3404 will be attacked and will be broken with target 1.3450-85. Top resistance level is 1.3485 where MA200…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 16, 2013 at 5:16am — 4 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 15.01.2013

EUR opened the new week with a gap higher, and after the strong bullish moves last week we had a small body candle on Monday. The price coudn't move higher above 1.3404 and this makes me think that a local top has been made. Look carefully on Daily now - this reminds me of so called "evening star" pattern. This is a high reliability bearish reversal pattern, which will be confirmed if we have a long bearish candle today with the close price within 1.3280-1.3310. This will confirm that bulls…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 15, 2013 at 6:00am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.01.2013

EUR continued its rally from the end of last week, and in early Asia reached 1.3404. Bulls are stronger than ever, and it's better not to stay against them. Of course the price can go even higher, but i don't think there is much space for this, maybe later this week,  but for today i think 1.3440 will cap any further movement with pullback to 1.3405. H4, Daily are extremely bullish - there is no sign of pullback too, H1 slightly is turning over a correction with first support @ 1.3360, then…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 14, 2013 at 5:34am — 8 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 11.01.2013

Yestarday EUR bulls showed everyone they are not dead, just sleeping. EUR has cleared all the loss during the first week of the year supported by the mr.Draghi's speech after the expected ECB decision and S&P release. Also pressure over the USD made the increase of the jobless claims which shows that more stimulus are needed to stabilize the weak american recovery. And in the time where we can see a weak recovery in the USA, there is no any like this in the EU - on the one side is…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 11, 2013 at 5:30am — 6 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 10.01.2013

EUR finished yesterday below the open price and today's morning Asia dropped 30 pips more, as a whole EUR is trading calm close to the 1.3030 support. Next important zone is 1.2975-80 breaking of which will take us 50 pips more down or even to 1.2900-1.2880. To the upside first resistance is 1.3090 followed by the 1.3140-50 and then 1.3220. Abobe only 1.3300 but for today it's too far and i will not comment it further. On Daily second shoulder of the H&S model is still developing, but…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 10, 2013 at 6:00am — 12 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 09.01.2013

Yesterday EUR bounced from 1.3145 resistance and tested the support @ 1.3050. I think EUR will remain locked within 1.3070-1.3145 range until the ECB's decision about interest rate tomorrow. It is expected ECB to keep the rate unchanged, but i think there will be a rate cut in february or march. Keeping rate unchanged in January will support the EUR and breaking above 1.3150 will take us to 1.3230 and from there to test 1.3300 again, however another fail of 1.3150 may take the price below…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 9, 2013 at 5:59am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 08.01.2013

SHORT EUR below 1.3170 SL 1.3185 TP 1.3030 - 1.2980 and below

we have a flag formation on H4 frame, so we may have another EUR rally, you may try also

LONG EUR above 1.3120 SL 1.3100 TP 1.3170-80 - 1.3225 but with great attention

Gold still negative, and prepaired to make another dive

SHORT GOLD below 1646 SL 1650 TP 1632- 1625 and below

LONG GOLD only above 1770 SL 1665 TP 1685

Good luck!

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 8, 2013 at 5:45am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.01.2013

EUR has dropped 40 pips this morning in early Asia reaching again the support line @ 1.3030 and seems to continue its further fall in the beginnning on this week. First important support is 1.2970-80 if broken we are going to 1.2900 where is the second important support. The final support is 1.2780 but that won't be reached today. Below the last EUR will enter in a free fall mode and will reach 1.2600. 

GOLD has made a huge drop and a huge recovery, which means that everybody used the…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 7, 2013 at 5:53am — 10 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 04.01.2013

Yesterday EUR reached all the three targets in my forecast, and GOLD has reached also the short target in early Asia today. I hope you've made a good profit. So the big question is what next. Answers for the EUR and the GOLD are different i think. Let's first take a look on EUR. Today plenty of data for the EU will be released starting with Germany's. Later today over the Atlantic we shall wait for NFP and ISM. These will be the market movers today. On the charts interesting things are…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 4, 2013 at 6:00am — 13 Comments


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