Asad rizvi's Blog (235)

GoLd PricE FoReCasT UntiL DecEmbeR 2015

GOLD @ $ 1223.50 =

While India look poised to overtake China as World's largest consumer of gold due better economic condition, but Indian growth needs to climb 7 pct and beyond to remain on top. This drop could be due to economic slow down in China, but one cannot ignore the fact that Chinese Central Bank is making every effort to push up its…

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Added by asad rizvi on May 17, 2015 at 6:06pm — No Comments

Uk ELecTion 2015 & GbP's NexT MoVe

Big change and last minute surprise in voters mood in the UK general elections is clearly visible that has upset all the pre-poll forecast.  Miliband like every politician did not talk differently and was extremely surprised by the election result, which is won by the Tories.
On economy David Cameron's policy was on track, but on the subject of austerity, which was the main focus of (Cameron & Miliband)…
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Added by asad rizvi on May 10, 2015 at 4:30pm — No Comments

BooK ProfiT oN GoLD $ 30 - EurO 255 Pips - GbP 115 pipS

Though FED minutes hinted mixed response from its members about the timing of rate hike stretching from June until year end, but they did sound positive on growth prospects. However, there is no second thought about the timing of US rate hike, which in my view should not happened before last quarter. 
One thing is for sure that Central Bank's monetary policy is based on economic results/data. Impact of…
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Added by asad rizvi on April 9, 2015 at 7:30am — 1 Comment

ImPacT oF PooR US JobS DaTa wiLL bE shOrt LiveD

Softer US payroll data was certainly against market expectations. But batch of US data released earlier from USA was clearly hinting weak jobs report, though it is believed that severe winter could be the spoiler, also hitting construction business badly.

It is expected that change in weather condition in coming months will help US economy to pick its lost pace in the 2ndquarter and so will jobs numbers. Despite poor…

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Added by asad rizvi on April 5, 2015 at 5:08pm — No Comments

EurO’s NexT MovE (MeDiuM TeRm DiRecTioN)

EURO @ 1.0495 =

On March 5, in my note “Mario Draghi was Too Disappointing”. I gave reasons why Euro will hit 1.05 levels. ( http://www.forexstreet.net/profiles/blogs/mario-draghi-was-too-disappointing?xg_source=activity  ;). My target…

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Added by asad rizvi on March 15, 2015 at 6:44pm — 4 Comments

OiL PRiceS CouLD PLunGe

It was quiet and eventful week, as ECB maintained its extremely loose monetary policy stance that was followed by Draghi’s press conference, which unlike past carried less weight and was ineffective. ECB boss was clearly directionless, as market paid no heed to his higher future growth forecast. Market is more concerned about the disagreement between ECB and Greece, which remains a threatening issue.

Furthermore,…

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Added by asad rizvi on March 9, 2015 at 2:40am — 1 Comment

MaRio DrAGhi wAs ToO DiSapPoiNtinG

What next for EURO",  I made a downward revision of European currency after hitting my target 1.1250 comfortably to 1.0950. Further, I said that baseline support is at 1.08 and breach of this level would risk test of 1.05.
Today, European Central Bank (ECB) announced launching of…
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Added by asad rizvi on March 6, 2015 at 3:30am — No Comments

Fx & GoLD - DaiLy OuTLooK - FeB 4

EURO @ 1.1470 = The up move should exhaust around or below 1.1490-00 or else breach of levels could witness a final surge towards 1.1560 before down again. Needs to clear 1.1420-40 support level for 1.1375 
GOLD @ $ 1265 = Gold is likley to hold $ 1260-62 for a a move and break of $ 1270, break…
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Added by asad rizvi on February 4, 2015 at 7:41am — 3 Comments

EuRoPe CluELeSs afTeR GrEEce ElecTioNs !

Market is stuck is a range trading and trying to determine next direction, as it is still clueless about the outcome of Greece elections. I suspect that neither Greece's newly elected government nor European policymakers are willing to confront on pending or coming issues unless it is necessary to intervene. Both are well aware of the consequences and the high price Europe may have to pay if separation or divorce takes place. …
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Added by asad rizvi on February 3, 2015 at 7:30am — 14 Comments

ProSpEctS fOR GoLd & CuRReNciEs (fEB 2-6)



Last week FED's stance on economy remain unchanged with some hint of earlier rate cut. Though in my view this may not happen too soon, but growth prospect for the time being is expected to be encouraging that should provide momentum to the US currency.

This week, market will obviously focus on US inflation data for future interest rate guidance, but major concentration by the weekend will shift towards Non-Farm…
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Added by asad rizvi on February 1, 2015 at 1:00pm — 5 Comments

whAT nEXt FoR EurO ?

@asadcmka

 

In my previous note “Why SNB Opted for Unconventional Monetary Policy” I made a closing remark about ECB quantitative easing plan and said that if the QE amount ranges around Euro ½ to ¾ Trillion, it may not be very effective, as European economy is required to bet on larger size.

The current size of ECB bond buying that will begin in March is surely more than expectation. ECB announced that it will make a monthly purchase…

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Added by asad rizvi on January 23, 2015 at 9:00am — 7 Comments

wHy SnB OpTeD FoR UnConVenTioNaL MoNEtaRY PoLicY ?

@asadcmka 

SNB move was sudden and had impacted global foreign exchange market and investors in many ways. The surprise decision to terminate the floor surely caught everyone wrong footed impacting currencies, stocks, gold, oil, brokerage houses and traders or businesses that has Swiss connection.One such example are the CHF borrowers opting for loan due to zero interest rate policy. Swiss National Bank introduced EURO/CHF floor of 1.20 CHF per Euro on…

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Added by asad rizvi on January 16, 2015 at 12:00pm — No Comments

wHy ANaLYst/EcoNOMisT & tHe RiCh cLASs HaTe TaLKinG abOut BeaR MaRkeT ?



@asadcmka

I am sure this note may be upsetting for all the richest class of the society and each one of them would disagree with me. But the real truth is that Analysis, Theories and Economic Logic's are tailor made to protect the Shareholder/Investors/Fund Managers Money or else many of them would be frequently seen loitering empty hands on the roadside due to incurring of losses caused by their bad/poor decision or investment adventurism.

Why ? Take example of…

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Added by asad rizvi on January 14, 2015 at 10:00am — 1 Comment

OuTLoOK 2015 !

GLOBAL ECONOMY Announcing end of quantitative easing in USA was the first sign of confidence in economy. With favourable economic fundamental America is easily looking most ideal place for the investors. US regulators should get credit for the hard work that is reaping good results.



With China slowing down, Europe is struggling because Germany is unable to carry Eurozone…

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Added by asad rizvi on January 2, 2015 at 8:52am — 2 Comments

Fear of Oil Glut could lead to ME Real Estate & Economic Collapse !

 

I consider today’s OPEC announcement very important development that will provide further guideline about future global economic…

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Added by asad rizvi on November 27, 2014 at 8:35am — 4 Comments

FeD HaS tO DEciDE “FronT SeaT or BacK SeaT” ? jAn 27-31

Focus this week will be on FED Monetary Policy announcement, which is one of the major event of the month. Market is fearing further reduction in FED bond purchase amount that has caused turbulence in emerging markets.China is blamed to have given the lead after fall in its manufacturing sector. Extraordinary growth in China has helped emerging market and to some extent developed markets to sustain growth during crisis period, as its economy since last 3-decades…
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Added by asad rizvi on January 27, 2014 at 3:00am — No Comments

GloBaL CuRReNcY & gOLd OuTLooK - 2014

I am not sure if the performance of global stock market should be taken, as benchmark for economic recovery as stock market of Japan, USA and Europe made record gains that undoubtedly outpaced global economic growth. However, since 2008 financial crisis, which is considered worst after 1930 crisis, it was comparatively a much stable year, as some of the major global issues were forcefully managed by unconventional monetary and fiscal policies.

Europe, USA, Japan…

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Added by asad rizvi on January 3, 2014 at 2:00am — No Comments

CuRReNCiEs & GoLD tO gAiN bEforE eAsiNg - aUg 12 - 16

Last week US economic data have once again showed healthier growth, but release of Euro zone economic numbers depicted better picture of the region’s economy, as orders came from Paris show that gave boost to Germany’s manufacturing sector. Similarly, Euro zone’s manufacturing PMI entered growth zone, as German and Italian factories/industries performed well.…

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Added by asad rizvi on August 11, 2013 at 5:23am — 2 Comments

WheN tO PaUSe iS FeD’s PreROgaTive aNd nOt maRKet chOice ! aUg 7

In my weekly outlook I wrote that FED officials would continue to confuse the market with their statements on FED’s asset purchase plan and this what Charles Evans and Dennis Lockhart have exactly done. Both seemed to be quite happy with economic progress, which I consider another signal to the market to get ready before it occurs. The debate about the timing to pause is irrelevant, as it is Fed’s prerogative and not the market choice.



Market is surely…

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Added by asad rizvi on August 7, 2013 at 2:46am — No Comments

WheN tO PaUSe iS FeD’s PreROgaTive aNd nOt maRKet chOice ! aUg 7

In my weekly outlook I wrote that FED officials would continue to confuse the market with their statements on FED’s asset purchase plan and this what Charles Evans and Dennis Lockhart have exactly done. Both seemed to be quite happy with economic progress, which I consider another signal to the market to get ready before it occurs. The debate about the timing to pause is irrelevant, as it is Fed’s prerogative and not the market choice.



Market is surely…

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Added by asad rizvi on August 7, 2013 at 2:46am — No Comments

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