Jason Sen's Blog (294)

GBPJPY in a longer & short term bull trend.

We have been pausing for breath over the past week to relieve the overbought conditions before the next leg higher. If we can beat last week's high at 178.60/70 we can re-start the bull trend & target trend line resistance at 179.20/25. Above here we look for a retest of September highs at 180.60/66.

The 3 day low of 177.25/10 is key for today. A break lower does look possible & should target support at 176.45/35 for a buying opportunity with stops below 176.00. Go with a…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:37am — No Comments

EURJPY rocketed in the second 2 weeks of September but collapsed last week to lose 50% of the gain.

We have stablised over the past 2 sessions but will only look more positive above immediate resistance at 139.05/15. Be ready to go with a break higher to target 139.42/45. Exit longs & try shorts here with stops above 1.3960. If we can reach as far as 1.3970/75 try shorts again with stops above 139.90.

Failure to hold above 138.70/65 keeps the market under pressure & targets the 2 week low at 138.40/35. Obviously this is key but a break lower looks increasingly likely for…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:36am — No Comments

EURGBP in a 12 month bear trend with no sign of this reversing yet as we approach 2012 lows at 7753.

However we are ranging for 3 days now & this may continue throughout the week to unwind oversold conditions. The 2 day low is 7795 but below here tests September lows at 7781. A break lower always likely in a bear trend & we then look for a test of important 2012 lows at 7753. A yearly low is always going to grab attention. This is also 7 year Fibonacci support BUT last time we bottomed here we also had the 200 month moving average here adding support. This is not the case now.…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:32am — No Comments

USDCHF in a strong bull trend & despite overbought conditions we look for buying opportunities on any weakness.

Immediate support is 9480/76. Try longs with stops below 9460. A break lower then meets the next support at 9440/35 & a low for the day expected if we fall this far. Try longs again with stops below 9420.

Immediate resistance at September highs of 9530/32. A break higher always a strong possibility in this bull trend & should target 9560/65 then 9595/9600 perhaps later in the week.…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments

AUDJPY in a strong 3 week bear trend but has bounced aggressively off 9510/08 in the past 2 sessions.

We could reach as far as strong resistance at 9590/95 today. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 9615. An unexpected break higher however sees 9595/90 act as support for a move towards 9640/50. Again exit longs & try shorts with stops above 9670.

There is a good chance we will be unable to beat 9590 keeping the outlook negative for a return to last week's low at 9540/35. A break below the 2 day low at 9510/08 should trigger stops in the market & targets important key…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments

USDCAD in a 3 month bull run but just developing a short term bull flag pattern as we become overbought.

The parameters of this flag are resistance at 1.1155/60 & support at 1.1110. Trade these levels until we see a breakout. Exit shorts & try longs at 1.1110/00 with stops below 1.1080.

Trying shorts at 1.1155/60 is more risky in a bull trend so keep stops tight at 1.1170. Be ready then to go with a break above 1.1180 for a move towards 1.1220/25 & possibly as far as 1.1245/50 this week to exit any longs. Above we meet this year's high at 1.1278 & can try shorts within…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 30, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments

EURUSD trading sideways as predicted until we unwind the oversold conditions.

Friday we did edge a little higher beating 1.2957/62 to stop just 6 pips from our next target of 1.2986/96. Be aware that this area could hold a rally again today but shorts here need stops above 1.3015 for a move towards 1.3040. Any further gains this week should target 1.3080/85 for a selling opportunity.

We are now just dipping back to the 1.2957/62 level & if we continue lower as seems likely look for a test of support at

1.2915/10. A bounce…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 15, 2014 at 11:48am — No Comments

AUDUSD hits head & shoulders measured target of 8980.

AUDUSD negative head & shoulders pattern continued to dominate with accelerated moves to the downside exactly as

predicted. Last week worked perfectly with losses every day as forecast & 9080 worked perfectly as resistance on Friday. All week we have warned the measured target for this head & shoulders pattern could be 8980!!! Today we have hit 8998 so far!!!

If you followed us and ran shorts it is now time to for profit taking & a…

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Added by Jason Sen on September 15, 2014 at 11:48am — No Comments

WTI Crude made a low last week at 9265/55 as expected.

Friday we hit 9325 to try longs with stops below 9285. This trade worked perfectly as we bottomed at 9282 & hit our 9365/70 level & a potential 40 tick profit. We could retest 9292/82 today but a break lower is more likely. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:16am — No Comments

USDJPY hit our next target of 104.10/15 on Friday & topped exactly here seeing a high for the week exactly as predicted.

The outlook is positive but we are entering overbought territory & over night headed for our next target of 104.50/55 as forecast. The pair topped almost exactly here 104.43 & have sold off aggressively. We need to unwind overbought conditions but a big sell off is not anticipated. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:15am — No Comments

Gold hit our selling opportunity at 1280/81 with stops above 1285 & this trade worked perfectly as we topped at 1283

Gold hit our selling opportunity at 1280/81 with stops above 1285 & this trade worked perfectly as we topped at 1283 & plunged to 1274 for a potential 6 point profit. Outlook remains negative as longs as we hold below 1280/81 so we can try this same trade again today. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:15am — No Comments

GBPUSD held our next downside target of 1.6555/50 to bottom almost exactly here at 1.6559 on Friday.

Failure here today is already targeting our next level of 1.6520/10. If the pair continue lower look for 1.6479/72. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:14am — No Comments

EURUSD saw 1.3250/40 mark the low for last week as forecast.

This important level has been broken this morning however as we close in on our target of 1.3775/70. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:14am — No Comments

AUDUSD hit trend line resistance at 9320/25 & saw a high for the day as predicted.

Outlook is more mixed this week but below 9290 adds pressure to target 9275/70. Full report:

Added by Jason Sen on August 25, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments

USDJPY headed higher as predicted & beat 103.71/78 but fell just short of our next target of 104.10/15.

The outlook is positive but we are entering overbought territory & perhaps we have seen a high for the week. Good support at yesterday's low of 103.70/60 but below here 103.40/35 should hold the downside. However if we continue lower look for a buying opportunity at 103.10. Exit shorts & try longs with stops below 102.95.

Yesterday's high is 103.96 then our next target & resistance at 104.10/15. Be careful in these overbought conditions but if the pair…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 22, 2014 at 9:39am — No Comments

GBPUSD unexpectedly broke 1.6600 & headed for our next downside target of 1.6555/50 to bottom almost exactly here at 1.6561.

Failure here today risks a slide as far as 1.6520/10. If the pair continue lower look for 1.6479/72 which should hold the downside today.

Immediate resistance at 1.6615/30 could hold a move higher. However above is more positive in this oversold market & can lead to higher towards 1.6670/80. A high for the day is expected if we trade up this far. Exit longs & try shorts with stops above 1.6700.…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 22, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments

EURUSD hit our target of 1.3250/40 bottomed exactly here yesterday as predicted.

We have exited shorts to try longs with a very good chance of a low for the week as stated yesterday. This is an important level so we need wider stops, in this case below 1.3210. Just be aware that however that a break lower could target 1.3775/70. 

If we hold 1.3250/40 as expected again today look for a bounce back to our first target of 1.3295. We did already struggle here yesterday as forecast but if the pair can continue higher we should then target 1.3320/25. A…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 22, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments

AUDUSD resumed the 6 week bear trend as forecast & hit our target of 9240/30.

As predicted this did hold the downside & in fact we bottomed exactly here. Any longs here were rewarded with a potential 60 pip profit as the pair shot higher to our 9303/07 resistance & topped exactly here at 9311. We should struggle here again today but above here meets trend line resistance at 9320/25. A good chance of a high for the day but above here look for a selling opportunity at 9335/45 with stops above 9360. 

We are in a short term bear trend &…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 22, 2014 at 9:37am — No Comments

USDJPY has now beaten 7 month trend line resistance at 102.70/75 as we look to target July/August highs at 103.02/08.

Overbought short term so we should struggle here but yesterday's breakout was a very bullish signal. We could therefore continue higher this week & reach for 103.35/40. Any further gains may go as far as 103.71/78.

Immediate support & a buying opportunity at 102.70/75. However an unexpected break lower meets very strong support at 102.50/44. Exit shorts & try longs with little chance of further losses today, but with stops below 102.30.…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 20, 2014 at 9:05am — No Comments

GBPUSD has hit the 23.6% retracement level of 1.6630 from the whole 1 year rally from a low of 1.4812 in July 2013.

This therefore is enormously important support & the best chance bulls have to mount a defense after 7 consecutive weeks of losses. It is worth trying medium term longs here with the risk vs reward heavily in our favour. We need wider stops than usual below 1.6600. Just be aware that the 'stop hunters' could try to push the pair lower today forcing out weak longs, before squeezing prices higher. However a break lower would trigger a lot of stops in the market & target…

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Added by Jason Sen on August 20, 2014 at 9:05am — No Comments

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