Valeria B Bednarik's Blog – June 2011 Archive (20)

Dollar can’t find relief

Hi everyone! Last day o the month and the dollar can’t find relief yet on contrary, sinks further. Usually profit taking last day of the month sees movements against dominant trend, more when we are closing first half of 2011. Still only currency showing weakness against dollar is the poor Pound, still weighted by latest BOE Minutes.



As commented yesterday in the Live Daily Wrap up webinar, Australian dollar was the most interesting pair to trade: AUD/USD soared to 1.0750, and…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 30, 2011 at 11:47am — No Comments

Best pair to trade now: USDCHF

Swiss Franc is no doubts, the strongest currency across the board. Quoting at record highs against the dollar there are no signs of exhaustion or reversal in the long term, yet on contrary, daily indicators point for further slides:

 

However, and in the short term, pair may show some interesting…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 29, 2011 at 10:38am — No Comments

Euro faces its destiny today

Hi everyone! So the day has come! Today Greek Parliament will decide either to pass or not latest austerity measures. As far as I know will start at 12 GMT, yet how long will it last, not sure. Market will probably stay on hold waiting for the result. As you may know risk appetite/aversion has ruled the market based upon sovereign debt woes in the euro zone, and headlines regarding the bailout coming from the EU and the IMF: how much, when, how, why, etc, etc.



While market…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 29, 2011 at 9:59am — No Comments

Beginners' Corner latest video

Here is the Beginners' Corner latest video, regarding moving averages, with some trading tips you may enjoy:

 

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 28, 2011 at 1:53pm — No Comments

Ranges, lack of definition...SUMMER!

Majors had been up and down since the start of the week, with no much of a longer term definition, despite dollar highs. Ther is something of bipolar behaviour lately when it comes to market sentiment, as risk aversion switchs no risk appetite back and foward, sometimes more than a couple times a session.  Still,  is not that easy as blaming it on summer: investors are running out of safe havens, and my bet goes for gold, and a recovery there, as when it comes to currency, record highs in…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 28, 2011 at 12:42pm — No Comments

Dollar gains extend; Pound may suffer more

Hi everyone! Dollar started a bullish rally past American afternoon that even moved USD/JPY 30 pips higher and that's a lot to say.  While investors had already priced in QE3,Bernanke stated as usual that the pace of unemployment decline is frustratingly slow, yet he also played down QE3 comparing current economic developing with the one 1 year ago.

 

Stocks and commodities not just halted recent gains yet also reversed lower, strongly down in the day and giving dollar further…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 23, 2011 at 12:00pm — No Comments

Dollar under pressure, Euro strong

Dollar remains strongly down across the board, I would say gold above $ 1550/oz is among the reasons. Strong stocks  after recent US opening, seems to be also favoring risk appetite, and even the Pound is managing a rebound from daily low @ 1.6090.

 

Here is the major's hourly outlook for current American session:

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 22, 2011 at 1:47pm — No Comments

USD/CAD not yet reversing

Watching the daily chart, there is no much more to recent rally to the upside, than a correction of the long term bearish trend the cross is in. Daily chart shows indicators pretty bearish, and the upside capped by 200 EMA; I believe that only IF we overcome parity, we can talk about a bottom and a long term reversal in the cross.

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 22, 2011 at 11:12am — No Comments

GBP/USD down on dovish BOE

Hi everyone! Good mood seen yesterday in markets seems to be fading as at this time of the European morning, stocks and commodities struggle around the opening levels, showing no much aims to extend gains.



Pound sunk more than 100 pips already and will probably continue lower, as latest BOE Minutes shocked the market: 7 out of 9 members voted to keep rates on hold as the majority believes more bond purchases may be needed because of potential downside risks to growth and…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 22, 2011 at 9:49am — No Comments

Starting the day

Hi everyone! The dollar finally found a top yesterday against major rivals, after a couple of days’ of strong rises, supported by risk aversion. Commodities however remain pretty bearish with oil below $ 94 a barrel, and gold hovering around the $ 1525/oz price zone. Stocks, that managed a recovery yesterday halting dollar gains, are struggling today to remain positive.



The greenback is losing ground, with EUR/USD reaching fresh daily highs above 1.4230. Despite early news show…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 17, 2011 at 9:59am — No Comments

GBP/USD aiming lower

Pound seems ready to be next selloff, once below daily low. the pair left a small gap around 1.6160 after recent UK data, again much below expectations. I see the pair now heading towards 1.6060, past May monthly low. If below, the side may extend to the 1.5970 area in the short term.

 

 

Here…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 16, 2011 at 11:32am — No Comments

EUR/USD: head and shoulders pointing to 1.3900

The Euro continues losing ground against major rivals, as risk turns back to aversion, and while there are still no much fundamental reasons for dollar strong gains, the EUR/USD is forming a head and shoulders figure, and struggling with the neck line:

 

Here are the technical levels, and the target of…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 15, 2011 at 11:38am — No Comments

Beginners Corner latest webinar recording

Here is the latest video of the beginners corner, where we discussed continuation figures. Enjoy!

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 14, 2011 at 3:15pm — No Comments

AUD/USD Daily symmetrical triangle

AUD/USD develops inside a daily symetrical triangle, following a previous bullish trend. That suggest the pair should continue to the upside in the mid/long term, if the figure is of course, broken to the upside. The only thing that is discouraging about it, is that price is quickly approaching to the vertex, so the range may extend and the figure should be discarded. Long term, firm gains above the roof at 1.0710 should lead to a retest of recent daily highs around 1.0770. Clearly above, we…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 14, 2011 at 10:32am — No Comments

Starting the day

Hi everyone! Dollar is marginally lower against major rivals, except Swiss Franc, as local share markets post quite large gains, and despite yesterdays’ strong slide in commodities: oil remains trading around $ 97.00 a barrel, while gold struggles to hold the $ 1520/oz level. Commodity currencies, are the overall winners so far today against the greenback, with AUD/USD quoting at 1.0650 (the pair has a descendant daily trend line that needs to break to regain longer term bullish momentum…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 14, 2011 at 9:28am — No Comments

Beginners Corner Figures Webinar

Another Friday, another Beginners Corner webinar! We are going to talk today about continuation figures, how to trade them and when, where to place stops, limits and why, and which are the most reliable ones. I will also leave the last 15 minutes for any kind of technical doubt.

 

Here is the…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 10, 2011 at 2:58pm — No Comments

Starting the day

Hi everyone! Dollar is up across the world this European morning, extending yesterday’s gains particularly against Euro and Pound at fresh multi-week lows. Despite Trichet hint a rate hike past Thursday, yet he also expressed the ECB concerns about sovereign debt issues, plus stated that the bank won’t “pre-commit” to rate hikes, sending Euro diving over 150 pips.



Dollar continues advancing with local share markets fighting to stay positive, with euro under strong pressure on…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 10, 2011 at 11:17am — No Comments

Commodities bounce, Dollar fades

Commodities had made quite a comeback just before US opening, as the OPEC meeting breaks up with no deal on raising the quota, with oil jumping back above $ 100 a barrel. gold recovered $ 10 in less than an hour, back above $ 1540/oz after reaching $ 1530 daily low. Dollar is then erasing recent gains across the board, although still limited against yen and swissy.

Here is the majors' outlook for current American session:

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 8, 2011 at 1:45pm — No Comments

USD/CHF seeking for fresh lows

USD/CHF continues its long term bearish trend, with no signs of reversing; funny, when we saw risk aversion the pair sunks, yet on risk appetite times, the upside remains quite limited, a great reason to support further falls. Dollar is not attractive, less after yesterday's comments from Ben Bernanke, FED´s President, talking about monetary policy remaining acommodative, and a slow and hard growth road for the US economy.

 

Daily  chart shows an acceleration of the bearish…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 8, 2011 at 12:10pm — No Comments

Starting the day

Hi everyone! Was thinking of how to start this post, without stating that the market continues searching for a clear direction; early year bearish dollar momentum is not over, yet unable to resume. Risk sentiment dominates the currency market, with most majors dancing at the swing of stocks and commodities, with the exception of Swiss Franc and Yen that hold their long term bullish trends against the dollar.



Recent recovery in Euro was capped by 1.4700 price zone, and despite the…

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Added by Valeria B Bednarik on June 8, 2011 at 10:49am — No Comments

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