By the beginning of the year, the euro crisis gathered all of the market attention, with Greece ready to leave the euro zone, Italy and Spain joining the club of the intolerable high yields and bailout needs, and European authorities lost without an answer. Crossing the ocean, US monthly employment readings surprise strongly up 3 months in a row, and market started screaming growth! The EUR/USD, fell as low as 1.2161 this July. However, while the EU crisis continues, at least the EU…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on July 19, 2012 at 9:42pm — No Comments
That market evolvs constantly is no news. The thing here is if we are able to adapt fast enough to survive on it. What will then, this 2012 bring? More banking jitters, higher chances of default in Europe, and more runs to the dollar on a continuous improving economy would be my educated guess.
Correlations may stay, or may change; I’m seing the beginning of a return to the dollar/stocks correlation we had before the 2007 crisis, yet is early to comfirm it. Maybe tomorrow’s…Continue
Buy the rumor, sell the fact. At least, that’s what we are seeing in the EUR/USD, that lose over 100 pips in less than an hour and after posting an intraday high of 1.3197 trading now below 1.3100 as European stocks erase daily gains and turned red. The ECB 3 years refinancing auction that exceed expectations and reached 489.2B, was the trigger of the latest fall.
Strong retracement from mentioned high suggests the recent bullish rally may have been just corrective, and the…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on December 21, 2011 at 1:40pm — No Comments
Corrective Thursday that's it. Dollar is slightly lower against major rivals, as stocks soar on US positive news. But both technically and fundamental, movements will likely remain limited. I will rescue Angela Merkel's words from yesterday, saying there is no easy or fast way out of the European crisis.
Both the EUR/USD, and the GBP/USD are trading below their 4 hours 20 SMA that act as dynamic resistance intraday. Anyway, here is the short term outlook for majors for current…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on December 15, 2011 at 2:56pm — No Comments
The EUR/USD is being continuously sold against major rivals, either if we have bad news, or no news at all. Is a “just in case” thing now; investors can’t trust no more in the EU authorities, and here we are, breaking below 1.3000 by the time of writing. It won’t be easy to see the common currency regaining the upside beyond some corrective movements in the upcoming weeks; is no longer a matter of sentiment, but of trend.
Quoting around 1.2980, the next obvious big figure is the…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on December 14, 2011 at 12:15pm — No Comments
Hi everyone! While dollar keeps extending gains, European stocks struggle to remain in green today, after a positive start, now off daily highs. Data coming from the Euro zone, and the UK continues disappointing, while improving in the US; despite Wall Street opened slightly red, I do still believe that is dollar time: the worst seems to be over in the US, while just starting at the other shore of the Atlantic. Intraday short term corrections against it, will be just be seen as…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on November 16, 2011 at 2:41pm — No Comments
Fears continue spreading all over the euro zone, as the differential in between Spain and German yields reached the widest since 1995. Europe has taken too long to pay attention to the debt issues and now will pay the consequences. In the meantime, new Prime Ministers are having a hard time just starting: Greek Lucas Papademos has Samaras, the opposition leader that would not sign the written pledge the EU requires before releasing the next trance of aid, while Italian Mario Monti, is…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on November 15, 2011 at 2:30pm — No Comments
Hi everyone! Week opened with a touch of optimism, as if the failure of Papandreou was something to cheer about. In the meantime, data of the euro zone come out worse than expected, with confidence down, as well as retail sales and industrial production. Not a minor data that shows a slowdown in consumption and so, in economic recovery.
And while Greece woes seems endless, Italy is now adding to the euro bearish case, as rumors of a Berlusconi resignation (lately denied) hit…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on November 7, 2011 at 2:35pm — No Comments
Hi everyone ! Friday again, with another NFP; and ahead of the news, I have a couple of thoughts to share. First, the Canadian employment data was just released and was terrible bad, not just worse than expected, but really negative. Canada and the US are closely related and reports tend to come in line. Chances of a negative reading in the US have just increases exponentially.
On the other hand, I have been covering live this report for centuries with Fxstreet, and…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on November 4, 2011 at 11:22am — No Comments
Good morning to a new day in forex paradise!
Optimism is up this morning, with dollar losing ground since early European morning, despite Italian 10-Year Bond Yield rose to a new record in the euro era, at 6.399%, and that Greece won’t be able to pay wages for state workers and pensions next month without a planned injection of £8 billion of EU cash. The aid has been suspended by the EU and IMF until the referendum planned for Dec 4th is done.
I was expecting market…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on November 3, 2011 at 11:30am — No Comments
Tuesday is all about risk, as Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou called a referendum and a parliamentary confidence vote, risking pushing the country into default if rejected by voters. I swear, he does it on purpose! Really, what can be on a man's mind taking such decission in current situation? I´m really starting to suspect Greece wants dracma back.
Jokes a side, the greenback soars across the board on US Treasuries demand, and stocks are pointing for a selloff session in the…Continue
Hi everyone, and welcome back to a new week in this crazy forex market. BOJ intervention past Asian session is old news right now, yet still a hot topic: would a standalone intervention will be enough to keep weakening the yen? Check the “From the editors’ desk in the Beginners corner: there is a full article that includes FinMin Azumi statements, saying that they intervened in FX market to take firm steps against speculative action, adding that they will continue to intervene until…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 31, 2011 at 12:00pm — No Comments
Dollar soars across the board as ECB member Stark claims the crisis is far from over. I don't know, maybe I'm to naive, but honestly was not expecting nothing different.
EUR/USD trades at 1.3827, with 1.3850 now as immediate resistance, and looking for a test of the 1.3770 area.
GBP/USD will remain bearish as long as below 1.5960, and I would expect more loses below 1.5910, nearing 1.5850, roof of the broken triangle.
USD/JPY is immune to…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 26, 2011 at 2:49pm — No Comments
Hi guys! I updated the Beginners Corner with some interesting data you may want to check, ahead of the EU summit. A first fundamental overview, followed by a couple of trading strategies for both, forex and indexes today.
If however, you are interested in learning along with being informed of what may happen today, I would particularly recommend the Black Swan article posted in the Fundamental Overview in the "From the Editor's Desk" section.
Here is the…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 26, 2011 at 9:39am — No Comments
Hi everyone! I have been working lately to improve the Beginners Corner, and I would really appreciate any feedback on it. I want it to be a bit more interactive, and provide useful information for the intraday trader. Go and take a look here:
Impressive rallies for breakfast, this European morning, after EUR/USD took the 1.3700 level. Mrket explode, risk game is on and US stocks opened strongly up, approaching September monthly highs, not a minor data.. Keep an eye on US indexes as if they break higher, dollar will keep sliding.
Whether if this optimism, triggered by hopes the EU announcement will show firmer action on the debt crisis developments is enough to save Greece from default and strenghten banks, is something I…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 12, 2011 at 1:39pm — No Comments
Optimism, pessimism risk appetite, risk aversion, up and down there we go. Besides being an expert in macroeconomic, today to follow forex market you will need also a degree in psychology.
Jokes aside, sentiment is still ruling the forex market, and as easy we can see optimism rise, we can see it fade. So fasten those stop loss if you trade short term! ;)
EUR/USD daily chart shows that regardless bullish momentum continues building up, the pair remains capped by the…
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 11, 2011 at 11:30am — No Comments
The EUR/USD is about to test a key level, the 1.3660 area; take a look at the daily chart:
I would expect a small retracement if reached, yet if we consolidate nearby, we may see a break higher in the pair, with 1.3800 area as next strong resistance zone. Here is the technical update of…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 10, 2011 at 11:39am — No Comments
Today’s ECB meeting, will be important, not only because market expectations regarding latest economic policy, yet also because is the end of Mr. Jean Claude Trichet mandate. Up to now, and despite not his favorite roll, he managed to kept euro zone away from collapse, with emergency measures. But those measures, particularly the purchases of troubled governments' bonds, mean long-term risks for the bank's credibility. And the collapse is not that far away: Greece default is still pending…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 6, 2011 at 9:23am — No Comments
Yesterday's strong recovery against greenback was limited by strong midterm levels in several major crosses, suggesting up to now, movement has been corrective.
While the EUR/USD was halted at the 76.4% retracement of this year bullish run around 1.3360, GBP/USD topped at 20 SMA in the 4 hours chart, still bearish and today at 1.5490.
The EU looking for a coordinate recapitalization of financial institutions was not the only factor that triggered the strong come back in…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 5, 2011 at 1:26pm — No Comments