César B.Leiceaga's Blog – March 2011 Archive (119)

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EUR/USD Skyrocketing

Propelled by big size buy stop orders above 1.4200 and the March euro zone inflation that came in at 2.6% against 2.3% consensus. Next in line comes this months highs in 1.4250/60 region. Expect good size offers around that zone with buy stops above it.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 9:24am — No Comments

GBP/USD Technical View

Cable edging higher and guided by the 30min 21 EMA flow from institutional players that are now sidelined after booking profits around 1.6150 barrier. Bids are said to be waiting down at 1.6090 - 1.6110 region. Can it push higher to the 50% Fib retracement zone in 1.6200s??

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Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 8:37am — No Comments

EUR/USD Asian Central Bank buying

ACB buying linked to rebalancing following overnight local interventions combined with talk of USD negative sales into the month/quarter-end.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 8:11am — No Comments

EUR/USD Bullish continuation

After solving the recent consolidation triangle the pair seems to point at todays R2. Maybe its too late to enter long for an intraday trade but it also maybe be soon for a medium term move above interim highs located in 1.4250s...…

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Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 8:00am — No Comments

Banks increasing standing facilities

Banks borrowed EUR2.837 billion from ECB's 1.75% margin facility lending on Wednesday. Marginal lending  by the ECB surged to double - digit billions in February  as a result of Ireland's efforts to wind down nationalized  lenders Anglo Irish Bank Corp and Irish Nationwide Building Society.

The banks parked EUR26.143 billion at the ECB's deposit facility on Wednesday compared with the EUR2.025 billion the previous day.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 7:49am — No Comments

Implied Volatility


Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 7:34am — No Comments

All eyes on the Spanish banks

Uncertainty surrounding the Spain's troubled savings after the collapse of a planned creation of a new bank, Banco Base, from four Cajas - saving banks.

Although from a spanish trader's point of view the market has largely discounted the news.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 7:13am — No Comments

RETAIL POSITIONING - LONG/SHORT

  1. USD/CAD
    72.90% 27.10%…
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Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 6:37am — No Comments

EUR/USD About to hit significant offers

Offers spotted between 1.4175 and 1.4200. Price recently tapping daily R1 in 1.4165.

Support zone in  1.4140 - 1.4150 ahead of Asian low.

Pivots:

R2:1.4203

R1:1.4165

PP:1.4108

S1:1.4069

S2:1.4012

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 6:27am — No Comments

AUD/USD Rumour

Offers option players ahead of barriers 1.0350 with more offers in 1.0400, stops above it.

Good size bids between 1.0275 - 1.0300

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 6:17am — No Comments

OPTIONS EXPIRIES - Thursday 31st March 2011

USDJPY 81.65 81.85 82.00 83.15

EURUSD 1.3900, 1.4000, 1.4050, 1.4080, 1.4085, 1.4125, 1.4150, 1.4250

GBPUSD 1.6315

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 6:10am — No Comments

Ireland's Stress Tests

Ireland is planning to merge EBS and AIB after the banks stress tests according to the newspaper Irish Independant.

Exists the possibility of tests stress revealing a funding gap of 20 to 25 billion in 4 Irish banks while the ECB hasn't yet decided the medium term funding for the banks.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 6:06am — No Comments

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY Rumours

Sovereign bids ahead of 1.4000 with offers layered around 1.4150. Dealers reporting there's EUR/JPY buying interest.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 31, 2011 at 5:53am — No Comments

Japan's MOF Igarashi

Quotes: "Doesn't make sense for the dollar to fall vs the yen now" adds on saying Kan's government is likely to issue more debt than previously planned in the fiscal year starting April to fund a series of supplementary budgets to reconstruct quake hit-regions.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 10:32am — No Comments

ECB's Comments

ECB's Bini Smaghi: backs "hands on" approach to bank regulation

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 9:34am — No Comments

USD/CHF 1bln option expiry

1billion USD/CHF 0.9200 strike for the 10am NY Cut sould go along way to contain the pair over the session.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 9:18am — No Comments

EU Bonds

10 year German Bund drifting lower amid light volume with 169K futures trading accompanied by 142K Schatz.

Traders are waiting for the the outcome of the 3 month LTRO from the ECB, the Italian BTP Auctions and results from the Irish and Spanish banks.

 

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 9:06am — No Comments

Tepco's nationalisation

Bankers think that most likely scenario could involve Tokyo Electric Power issuing new shares to the government.

Tepcos six month and one year CDS were trading this morning at over 550bp while the 3 yr CDS blew out to a new record wide of 510bp in a reflection of the bond markets concern over the companys near term future.

 

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 8:48am — No Comments

USD/JPY Recap

Currently below 83 handle, massive activity seen via voice brokers in Asia, with nearly 400million done through them in the spike to 83.01.

Japanese retail names are the main sellers above 83.00. Said to be offers between 83.20-83.50 and ahead of 84.00 (pivot level)

77% positively correlated with the Nikkei 225 Index on a 30 day basis.

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 8:19am — No Comments

FX Options AUD/USD

Volumes firmer with spot, 1.0350 is the next upside obstacle.

Implieds firmer - 1mth ATM now at 11.3 while at the other end of the curve 1year ATM is 13.85

Risk reversals to note:

1mth 25 delta reversals matched levels seen yesterday at 1.75

2mth 25 delta at 2.1

3mth 25 delta paid at 2.5 and 2.55 puts.

6mth 25 delta reversals traded 3.0 puts today.

 

Added by César B.Leiceaga on March 30, 2011 at 8:09am — No Comments

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