Oasis's Blog (105)

AUDNZD short based on a novice's understanding of Ichimoku

I have just a basic knowledge of Ichimoku so would welcome any comments from experienced users.

The weekly chart above shows me the following:

- Price is under the Kumo.

- Price came close to the Kumo and fell back. The Kumo is a bit thick so may not be easy to penetrate.

-…

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Added by Oasis on January 24, 2015 at 11:51pm — 3 Comments

NZDUSD short

As the daily chart below shows, the price squeeze is unmistakable. I will be looking for a short entry signal on H4 time frame to go to the bottom of the range. Will a breakout occur and when will it happen if at all is a tough call for me at this point.

In any event there should be at least about 100 pips to ride this pair down.…

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Added by Oasis on January 18, 2015 at 12:00am — 1 Comment

Weekly trade - Short GBPAUD

If you don't mind trading the weekly chart, you may want to consider taking this short. The best entry was 100 pips earlier, but this still looks good with R/R 1 to the first target.

You may even get a better entry today as price may retrace up as it often does on Monday.…

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Added by Oasis on January 4, 2015 at 6:39pm — 1 Comment

How much are you willing to risk in the market ??

It is my opinion that this question is of paramount importance. More than fundamentals or technicals and of course indicators etc.

You already know that the market can do anything at any time. If you don't know that, then take it from me - that is true. Protection of your capital needs to come before any images of fantastic gains that you may or may not make.

Acquire the ability to see the market turn around against you. have confidence in your analysis and make sure your…

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Added by Oasis on January 2, 2015 at 5:00pm — No Comments

Best wishes to all

Tomorrow we open a new blank 365 page book. So write a good one!

Wish everyone a very prosperous and happy 2015.

Added by Oasis on December 31, 2014 at 3:21pm — 1 Comment

Understanding the flow in the market can be difficult

We are all aware of the dangers of seeing in the charts what we want to see. But sometimes even if we have no bias it can be difficult. I am going to use AUDJPY to illustrate my point.

Looking at shorter time frames say H4 you should be convinced that price will continue its downward journey. Yes there is some resistance coming up at 96.500 area but the major one seems to be about 160 pips away.A short taken now will have a good R/R so all looks good for a short. The AUD is…

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Added by Oasis on December 20, 2014 at 3:59pm — No Comments

Welcome to the new members (and a reminder to the old ones)

Welcome to the traders who are joining this forum every day. First of all I am not an admin or holding any other responsibility here. Just know me as an old member who has been here for a while. I have learnt a lot and tried to give something back as well. I care about the continued success of forexstreet.net and that is why I am taking a few minutes to write my personal thoughts here.

The membership here I think runs into tens of thousands, perhaps the largest of such forums.…

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Added by Oasis on December 16, 2014 at 7:12pm — 2 Comments

Risky EURNZD short

This is risky and goes contrary to popular opinion that is screaming 'go long'. I like this short based purely on price action and will take a small position if I get an opportunity at current or higher levels.

Caution is advised.…

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Added by Oasis on December 14, 2014 at 9:03pm — No Comments

Short GBPCAD

I already took a small position and here is what I am seeing. Taking a monthly view, I see that a 38.20% retracement in the down move already completed.

The weekly view seems to confirm this with what looks like a lower top already established in the down move.…

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Added by Oasis on December 6, 2014 at 3:40pm — 1 Comment

Looking for a short NZDCAD

NZDCAD and GBPCAD have been lagging their USD counterparts last week. Usually they do tend to move in a similar direction and so I am expecting some CAD strength next week. See H12 chart for NZDCAD below. My choice of taking a short is NZDCAD simply because I believe there is lot of room for NZDUSD to fall.…

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Added by Oasis on November 29, 2014 at 11:55am — 7 Comments

NZDUSD short is hard to resist

In my opinion this is a pair where the fundamentals and price action are in sync. Neither side wants a rise in price.

The monthly view below shows us how high the price has been of recent and desire of RBNZ to bring it down is known to everyone.

Taking a look at the daily chart, we see that…

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Added by Oasis on November 22, 2014 at 3:02pm — No Comments

Will you buy this pair?

Take a look at the daily chart

Now see the zoomed in H4…

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Added by Oasis on November 8, 2014 at 3:32am — 10 Comments

Expecting NZD weakness 03-07 Nov

Just thinking aloud, not recommending any trade. Let us take a look at NZDUSD on the daily. The downtrend that started in July halted in the end of Sep and then began a period of consolidation that has a mix of red and white days. The bulls made some ground but the bias has shifted to the down side again. The counter - trend line (blue) has been broken rather convincingly last Fri and I am thinking that a big move down is not far away.…

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Added by Oasis on November 1, 2014 at 7:00pm — No Comments

Possible short on EURCAD

The 6 hour chart is quite clearly showing what I am thinking. First target is not shown but will be just above 1.41177. I invite your comments.…

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Added by Oasis on September 11, 2014 at 9:58pm — 2 Comments

EURGBP should continue its fall

Earlier today I commented that taking quick profits is a wise strategy these days. Time and again we have been seeing the market make a logical move but then quickly reverse. However when I look at EURGBP chart (see H12 chart below) the 20EMA has held price really well. A retracement also seems to have been completed today (Fri 18 July).…

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Added by Oasis on July 19, 2014 at 2:22am — 2 Comments

Possible long CADJPY

Some of the Yen crosses are showing bullish signs. I like CADJPY the most for a few reasons:

1) Price has moved above 200sma.

2) Recent high at 94.700 has been broken.

3) Price has tested that level over the last few days and it has held as support.

4) Bullish pin bars have formed at that level during the last two days.

See daily chart below.…

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Added by Oasis on June 27, 2014 at 11:48pm — 1 Comment

The cleanest price action chart I could find for the week of 16 June

I have never traded DJ30 but the daily chart below is really clean and crisp. Price action is so measured with minimal shadows. It does point to a move higher.

Perhaps someone who trades this can give an opinion?…

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Added by Oasis on June 14, 2014 at 1:32am — No Comments

USDJPY - decision time again !!

For the 12th time this year, UJ is back to 101.30-101.50 zone. Each of the previous visits have resulted in a bounce up, although they have been declining in magnitude recently. The 200MA is a level that most traders consider a buy/sell line and price is still above it.

I was not able to…

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Added by Oasis on May 18, 2014 at 2:39pm — 3 Comments

CADCHF long?

This is not a very popular pair but see daily chart below. The 20ema has been a pretty good guide of the trend and it appears to me that the down trend may be over. I am looking for a pull back to/close to the 20ema and an appropriate signal to go long.…

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Added by Oasis on May 8, 2014 at 9:40pm — 6 Comments

Who is in control of the market?

I recently had the opportunity to watch one of Nick B's free webinars. For those who have not heard of him, he is a price action trader with clean charts and only s/r zones that he plots on his charts.

His trading method is looking for price reversals at s/r zones using H4 and higher time frames only. Sorry this is not a promo for Nick but I wanted especially newer traders to have a bit of background about what I wanted to really say in this blog. 

The one thing…

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Added by Oasis on April 12, 2014 at 1:10am — 1 Comment

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