Oasis's Blog (119)

Looking for a long entry on USDCAD

Despite the confusion in the timing of interest rate increase in the USD, I think everyone agrees that the US will be the first one to increase rates. Keeping in view current trends and this fact, it seems prudent to keep a long bias towards the USD. Shorts on EU, AU and GU are obvious trends that may well continue but I am also looking to find a low risk new position and think that USDCAD may be the one to provide that.

The weekly view shows consolidation for the last 9 weeks in a…

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Added by Oasis on April 12, 2015 at 3:50pm — 1 Comment

Short setup on EURGBP

I am looking at the daily chart and it is obvious that 0.73800 has shifted from being a support to a resistance level. It defended the level on 26 March and then again today 03 Apr. Price has fallen back about 40 pips today.

Zooming in, now on the H12 chart, I get a better sense of price rejection…

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Added by Oasis on April 4, 2015 at 2:41am — 13 Comments

Short EURAUD

Let us start with a monthly view. We see that the downtrend that started in Nov 2008 retraced to the 1.5500 level. It then tried another leg up but was held at the 38.20% level and the trend is down again for the last 3 months.

Now let us take a look at the weekly. Price was being supported by the…

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Added by Oasis on March 21, 2015 at 6:27pm — 7 Comments

Looking for high probability trades during week of 16 March

It is my intention to avoid USD and most EUR trades this week - just not comfortable with the prolonged USD strength and EUR weakness. I am wary of pullbacks that may not be very shallow. After scanning a few pairs it is my opinion that we may be about to see some strength return to GBP and continued weakness in AUD. Here is a summary of the pairs that I am watching for opportunities.

Short AUDCAD.

Take a look at the weekly chart. Note that we are below the 200SMA (also…

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Added by Oasis on March 15, 2015 at 3:52am — 5 Comments

Trading the weekly chart AUDJPY

I have never found it easy to trade the weekly chart. The biggest challenge for me is to have the patience to see the trade through to the end and often end up taking profit too early. This time I have demo traded a short on AUDJPY.

As you see in the chart below, we had almost 3 weeks of bullish action followed by 2 weeks where indecision was the main sentiment. I entered short this week, was late by a day but the trade is valid. For target there looks like a nice confluence at 90.00…

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Added by Oasis on March 11, 2015 at 2:13pm — 2 Comments

Looking for high probability trades during week of 09 March

It's always nice to trade with the trend. I find comfort in the fact that by using small trading positions I can compensate for early (bad) entry by having the ability to hold on for longer. Unless the trend reverses completely I can avoid a loss.

Friday's NFP numbers leave no doubt in my mind that the USD will continue to strengthen, so I am looking for options to benefit from that. When price reaches extreme levels not seen in years I find it difficult to trade, partly…

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Added by Oasis on March 7, 2015 at 4:51pm — 29 Comments

Risky AUDNZD long

AS you know I am big on market giving me a price action signal before I trade but I broke my own rule and took this long. I based it purely on the multi year low level that can easily be broken.

I took a small position because of this and even though it is up 37 pips, I know it can easily reverse.…

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Added by Oasis on March 5, 2015 at 4:19am — 13 Comments

Sometimes it is good to just stay away

As always there is a lot of interest in the forum in AUDUSD. The picture on the daily looks quite clear. The blue trend line has been respected, a bounce occurred earlier today. The overall trend is down, price is well below the 200SMA  so going short looks a safe bet.

Switching to the H4, you will…

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Added by Oasis on March 4, 2015 at 5:35pm — No Comments

Looking to short XAUUSD

My apologies for drawing my trend lines the way that fits what I am thinking. But the variation if you draw them your way will not be too far from mine.

I am looking to go short on gold once it breaks below 1204.70. First target will be the blue trend line.

In case price goes the other way. a break above the red trend line perhaps with a retest will be the signal to enter long.

Either way this is a tight corner and a break out is imminent. My own bias is to the short…

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Added by Oasis on March 1, 2015 at 5:08pm — 4 Comments

GBPUSD short

At the end of June 2014 began a downtrend in the cable that lasted until mid Jan 2015 losing 2,300 pips in this process as the weekly chart below shows. Since then the GBP has recovered a bit making it to 23.6% retracement level last week.

Next I take a look at the daily chart. Price has been well…

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Added by Oasis on February 21, 2015 at 10:11pm — 20 Comments

A look at NZDUSD

Let us start by looking at the weekly chart. The bearish action has been very powerful with a few strong candles. There was some choppy price action between Sep and Dec and then strong bearish action followed again. the last 2 weeks have seen some decent recovery and so the question is how much recovery will the bulls be able to achieve.…

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Added by Oasis on February 14, 2015 at 4:30pm — 11 Comments

Patience is a key ingredient for traders

First of all I need to say that I am no expert in trading. Like most people here, I am a student but a keen student developing my skills. Lessons are learnt each day in the forex market and it is important not to forget them. The purpose of this post is just to share one such lesson.

I recently took a long GBPJPY trade that is posted separately, so I will not go into details of how that trade progressed but will talk about it to highlight my subject of patience.

Take a look at…

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Added by Oasis on February 11, 2015 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Possible Short on EURAUD

I start with the monthly chart to establish the flow in the market. I see a massive down move during Feb 2009 to July 2012, followed by retracemt that lasted till Jan 2014. Now the down trend is in play again.

Switching to the weekly chart, we seem to be at a good point to enter short. I am…

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Added by Oasis on February 7, 2015 at 11:14pm — 4 Comments

A question for you

I have stayed away from any CHF pair since you know when ...

This one caught my eye today so I would like to ask if you would go short.…

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Added by Oasis on January 31, 2015 at 8:07pm — 17 Comments

AUDNZD short based on a novice's understanding of Ichimoku

I have just a basic knowledge of Ichimoku so would welcome any comments from experienced users.

The weekly chart above shows me the following:

- Price is under the Kumo.

- Price came close to the Kumo and fell back. The Kumo is a bit thick so may not be easy to penetrate.

-…

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Added by Oasis on January 24, 2015 at 11:51pm — 8 Comments

NZDUSD short

As the daily chart below shows, the price squeeze is unmistakable. I will be looking for a short entry signal on H4 time frame to go to the bottom of the range. Will a breakout occur and when will it happen if at all is a tough call for me at this point.

In any event there should be at least about 100 pips to ride this pair down.…

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Added by Oasis on January 18, 2015 at 12:00am — 1 Comment

Weekly trade - Short GBPAUD

If you don't mind trading the weekly chart, you may want to consider taking this short. The best entry was 100 pips earlier, but this still looks good with R/R 1 to the first target.

You may even get a better entry today as price may retrace up as it often does on Monday.…

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Added by Oasis on January 4, 2015 at 6:39pm — 1 Comment

How much are you willing to risk in the market ??

It is my opinion that this question is of paramount importance. More than fundamentals or technicals and of course indicators etc.

You already know that the market can do anything at any time. If you don't know that, then take it from me - that is true. Protection of your capital needs to come before any images of fantastic gains that you may or may not make.

Acquire the ability to see the market turn around against you. have confidence in your analysis and make sure your…

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Added by Oasis on January 2, 2015 at 5:00pm — No Comments

Best wishes to all

Tomorrow we open a new blank 365 page book. So write a good one!

Wish everyone a very prosperous and happy 2015.

Added by Oasis on December 31, 2014 at 3:21pm — 1 Comment

Understanding the flow in the market can be difficult

We are all aware of the dangers of seeing in the charts what we want to see. But sometimes even if we have no bias it can be difficult. I am going to use AUDJPY to illustrate my point.

Looking at shorter time frames say H4 you should be convinced that price will continue its downward journey. Yes there is some resistance coming up at 96.500 area but the major one seems to be about 160 pips away.A short taken now will have a good R/R so all looks good for a short. The AUD is…

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Added by Oasis on December 20, 2014 at 3:59pm — No Comments

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