Oasis's Blog (86)

Who is in control of the market?

I recently had the opportunity to watch one of Nick B's free webinars. For those who have not heard of him, he is a price action trader with clean charts and only s/r zones that he plots on his charts.

His trading method is looking for price reversals at s/r zones using H4 and higher time frames only. Sorry this is not a promo for Nick but I wanted especially newer traders to have a bit of background about what I wanted to really say in this blog. 

The one thing…

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Added by Oasis on April 12, 2014 at 1:10am — 1 Comment

Is the AUD headed down next week?

I just finished looking at some daily charts and this is what I see:

AUDCAD - tried to penetrate MR1 at 1.0058 and did, but got rejected. The last attempt to break that level was in Oct 2013 and did not succeed either. Is this pair headed down?

AUDCHF - This pair is already in a downtrend and I am attaching this chart. Note the symmetry in price action between 17 Dec and 07 Mar (today). …

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Added by Oasis on March 8, 2014 at 3:28am — 1 Comment

AUDNZD - looks like another opportunity might come

There was an opportunity to go long in this pair on 27/28 Jan. But even though price went this low for the first time since Dec 2005, I was still not sure. The price action signal was also there, yet there was hesitation in my mind. See daily chart below.

Price did go up about 300 pips, but…

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Added by Oasis on March 1, 2014 at 2:06am — 64 Comments

The extra extraordinary AUDNZD

I have never seen a chart like this one. Shown below is a monthly view. The 20 EMA you see is useless. I put on the Ichimoku even though it is perhaps the most lagging of them all. For the first time I saw price below the cloud on all time frames, even the 1 minute. I am sure any oscillator will only show oversold status.

I am a price action trader and cannot at this moment see a trade. While the 4 hour view shows a double bottom, a continuation down cannot be ruled out or rather is…

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Added by Oasis on December 14, 2013 at 2:18pm — 2 Comments

Time for GBP to rollover?

As you can see from the attached 4 hour GBPAUD chart, the 20EMA did a fairly good job of holding up price since 05 November. Dips below the 20EMA were not deep and did not last long either, indicating that the bears had no strength.

This seems to be changing now as evidenced by the pin bar of…

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Added by Oasis on December 7, 2013 at 1:56pm — 5 Comments

Please give me a second chance

Having missed some of the recent run on USDJPY, my thought was damn, another opportunity lost!! But they say that the market usually gives you a second chance to hop onboard. This is what I think I am seeing in the chart below.

How much lower will price get to, I have no idea - perhaps to my horizontal green line. But my thought is to watch the 1 hour chart and take my cue from there since I do believe that the bull run is far from over.…

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Added by Oasis on November 22, 2013 at 2:38pm — 28 Comments

This has educational value

You all have seen price action on CHFJPY just now - price shot up to beyond its highs and then bounced off the monthly resistance level. When you see this happen at significant levels you must be alert. It is possible that smart money actually wants to bring the price down and is influencing and manipulating it to go high instead.

Why do they do this? Quite simply if they want to sell they need to have buyers to sell it to. So pushing price up does 2 things - Firstly…

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Added by Oasis on November 19, 2013 at 4:22pm — No Comments

Why is the quality dropping here at fxstreet.net

I wonder if anyone else has noticed but this is a fact. It used to be customary for trade related blogs to be based on some analysis showing why a trader thought price would move in a particular direction. We used to see charts and explanations and this generated a lot of debate and exchange between members was healthy and sometimes even became heated. But the result was good quality content.

It is therefore unfortunate that sub standard content is now being encouraged. I see…

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Added by Oasis on November 19, 2013 at 2:24am — 17 Comments

USDSEK - Possible short

Perhaps some of you liked my demo trade of USDNOK last week. Here is an identical setup on USDSEK. I think the message here is quite clear:

- Serious price rejection at 6.6520 over last 2/3 days.

- Bounce off the monthly R2

see chart attached.

I have no idea of spreads on this…

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Added by Oasis on November 16, 2013 at 11:30pm — 5 Comments

The value of patience

Before everyone gets too impressed let me tell you that this is a DEMO trade. However the lesson to be learnt is valid. I was watching this USDNOK pair for a few days wondering if it was a good pair to trade. I noticed the bullish move on Tues and wondered if price would get to the high of 05 July. If it did I decided to short it hoping for repeat of 08 July bearish move. This did not happen and the pair started falling. I waited until market close yesterday before going short. I now had 3…

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Added by Oasis on November 15, 2013 at 9:00pm — 1 Comment

Is this going to be the week of the CAD

Scanning the weekly and daily charts of the week gone by, somehow drew my attention on the CAD. From a news perspective there is no CAD related announcement before Thu., so that is good.

AUDCAD - See weekly chart below. 1.00150 seems like an important level that could not be breached again and a strong pin bar suggests that the bears are once again in control.…

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Added by Oasis on November 9, 2013 at 2:34pm — 12 Comments

Possible long AUDCHF this week.

If we look at price action last week, CHF weakness is quite obvious. Only the EUR failed to make any gains against it. Will this continue this week? Who knows but this made me take a look at CHF crosses for opportunities. CADCHF looks great and USDCHF as well. But would it not be better to pick a pair that has not gained a lot of ground already? Even though AUD was not the strongest currency last week, AUDCHF looks a good possibility to me.…

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Added by Oasis on November 2, 2013 at 7:04pm — 4 Comments

AUDUSD - Long

As you can see from the daily chart below, we are currently in a retrace of the overall uptrend. Price is approaching the 23.6% level and I expect it to reverse or perhaps stall and reverse here. The zone marked in blue will be explained in the 4 hour chart.

Now let us look at the 4 hour chart.…

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Added by Oasis on October 26, 2013 at 9:00pm — 21 Comments

Looking to short NZDUSD

This weekend I have watched Sam Seiden's webinar about trading with the smart money. Little knowledge can be quite dangerous so I hope that I have got this right.

As per chart attached,the area between 0.8500 and 0.85600 is a supply zone. Price was in this area in April-May 2013 and dropped quite significantly. I will be looking at lower timeframes for entry signal within the marked zone.…

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Added by Oasis on October 20, 2013 at 2:06pm — 21 Comments

Focus on GBPCAD

My interest this week is going short on this pair. It has risen to levels last seen in Feb 2010 and recent price action indicates (to me) that this run may be over for now.

Starting with the weekly chart, price action over the last 3 weeks is interesting. Week 3 was a nice and convincing bullish action. Week 2 brought a significant move up but forced down by massive selling. Week 1 (just concluded) saw another move up that has largely been negated by the bears.

RSI users can…

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Added by Oasis on October 12, 2013 at 1:28pm — 2 Comments

Short AUDNZD

As you can see from the attached 4 hour chart, price has been rejected off a major s/r level.

The daily chart below also shows a H&S pattern being formed.…

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Added by Oasis on October 11, 2013 at 3:40am — 12 Comments

GBPAUD downtrend continues

I cannot see any reason why a short is not a good idea. See hourly chart attached below. Price below daily pivot 50SMA and 21EMA. It also continues to make lower highs.

A look at the daily chart shows H&S pattern completed. What remains is the break of trendline at the bottom. That event if…

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Added by Oasis on October 10, 2013 at 4:17pm — No Comments

Possible short NZDJPY

I will be looking for signs that a short on this pair is a valid trade next week. Price is currently below the 50 sma and that is usually a good sign for bearish action. It has also been rejected at the upper dynamic trendline several times. I do however would like to see price go below the 21 ema and the daily pivot. The 80.000 area is a good target.

Assuming that there is no gap, the current level is a good price to enter as the stop will be just above the trendline, providing a…

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Added by Oasis on October 5, 2013 at 1:14pm — 10 Comments

Long trade - CADCHF

All my reasons for taking this trade are in the attached chart.

Added by Oasis on October 4, 2013 at 3:45pm — 4 Comments

Building a case for short AUDJPY

A CNBC business news piece says - 

NEW YORK, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The dollar fell across the board on Friday, hitting a 7-1/2-month low against the safe-haven Swiss franc, as wrangling over the U.S. budget and a lack of clarity over when the Federal Reserve will scale back stimulus curbed demand for the greenback.

The dollar also fell against the yen after Japanese Finance Minister Taro Aso said he was not thinking of lowering the effective corporate tax rate now.…

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Added by Oasis on September 29, 2013 at 5:00am — 2 Comments

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