Oasis's Blog (113)

Risky AUDNZD long

AS you know I am big on market giving me a price action signal before I trade but I broke my own rule and took this long. I based it purely on the multi year low level that can easily be broken.

I took a small position because of this and even though it is up 37 pips, I know it can easily reverse.…


Added by Oasis on March 5, 2015 at 4:19am — 3 Comments

Sometimes it is good to just stay away

As always there is a lot of interest in the forum in AUDUSD. The picture on the daily looks quite clear. The blue trend line has been respected, a bounce occurred earlier today. The overall trend is down, price is well below the 200SMA  so going short looks a safe bet.

Switching to the H4, you will…


Added by Oasis on March 4, 2015 at 5:35pm — No Comments

Looking to short XAUUSD

My apologies for drawing my trend lines the way that fits what I am thinking. But the variation if you draw them your way will not be too far from mine.

I am looking to go short on gold once it breaks below 1204.70. First target will be the blue trend line.

In case price goes the other way. a break above the red trend line perhaps with a retest will be the signal to enter long.

Either way this is a tight corner and a break out is imminent. My own bias is to the short…


Added by Oasis on March 1, 2015 at 5:08pm — 4 Comments

GBPUSD short

At the end of June 2014 began a downtrend in the cable that lasted until mid Jan 2015 losing 2,300 pips in this process as the weekly chart below shows. Since then the GBP has recovered a bit making it to 23.6% retracement level last week.

Next I take a look at the daily chart. Price has been well…


Added by Oasis on February 21, 2015 at 10:11pm — 20 Comments

A look at NZDUSD

Let us start by looking at the weekly chart. The bearish action has been very powerful with a few strong candles. There was some choppy price action between Sep and Dec and then strong bearish action followed again. the last 2 weeks have seen some decent recovery and so the question is how much recovery will the bulls be able to achieve.…


Added by Oasis on February 14, 2015 at 4:30pm — 11 Comments

Patience is a key ingredient for traders

First of all I need to say that I am no expert in trading. Like most people here, I am a student but a keen student developing my skills. Lessons are learnt each day in the forex market and it is important not to forget them. The purpose of this post is just to share one such lesson.

I recently took a long GBPJPY trade that is posted separately, so I will not go into details of how that trade progressed but will talk about it to highlight my subject of patience.

Take a look at…


Added by Oasis on February 11, 2015 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Possible Short on EURAUD

I start with the monthly chart to establish the flow in the market. I see a massive down move during Feb 2009 to July 2012, followed by retracemt that lasted till Jan 2014. Now the down trend is in play again.

Switching to the weekly chart, we seem to be at a good point to enter short. I am…


Added by Oasis on February 7, 2015 at 11:14pm — 4 Comments

A question for you

I have stayed away from any CHF pair since you know when ...

This one caught my eye today so I would like to ask if you would go short.…


Added by Oasis on January 31, 2015 at 8:07pm — 17 Comments

AUDNZD short based on a novice's understanding of Ichimoku

I have just a basic knowledge of Ichimoku so would welcome any comments from experienced users.

The weekly chart above shows me the following:

- Price is under the Kumo.

- Price came close to the Kumo and fell back. The Kumo is a bit thick so may not be easy to penetrate.



Added by Oasis on January 24, 2015 at 11:51pm — 8 Comments

NZDUSD short

As the daily chart below shows, the price squeeze is unmistakable. I will be looking for a short entry signal on H4 time frame to go to the bottom of the range. Will a breakout occur and when will it happen if at all is a tough call for me at this point.

In any event there should be at least about 100 pips to ride this pair down.…


Added by Oasis on January 18, 2015 at 12:00am — 1 Comment

Weekly trade - Short GBPAUD

If you don't mind trading the weekly chart, you may want to consider taking this short. The best entry was 100 pips earlier, but this still looks good with R/R 1 to the first target.

You may even get a better entry today as price may retrace up as it often does on Monday.…


Added by Oasis on January 4, 2015 at 6:39pm — 1 Comment

How much are you willing to risk in the market ??

It is my opinion that this question is of paramount importance. More than fundamentals or technicals and of course indicators etc.

You already know that the market can do anything at any time. If you don't know that, then take it from me - that is true. Protection of your capital needs to come before any images of fantastic gains that you may or may not make.

Acquire the ability to see the market turn around against you. have confidence in your analysis and make sure your…


Added by Oasis on January 2, 2015 at 5:00pm — No Comments

Best wishes to all

Tomorrow we open a new blank 365 page book. So write a good one!

Wish everyone a very prosperous and happy 2015.

Added by Oasis on December 31, 2014 at 3:21pm — 1 Comment

Understanding the flow in the market can be difficult

We are all aware of the dangers of seeing in the charts what we want to see. But sometimes even if we have no bias it can be difficult. I am going to use AUDJPY to illustrate my point.

Looking at shorter time frames say H4 you should be convinced that price will continue its downward journey. Yes there is some resistance coming up at 96.500 area but the major one seems to be about 160 pips away.A short taken now will have a good R/R so all looks good for a short. The AUD is…


Added by Oasis on December 20, 2014 at 3:59pm — No Comments

Welcome to the new members (and a reminder to the old ones)

Welcome to the traders who are joining this forum every day. First of all I am not an admin or holding any other responsibility here. Just know me as an old member who has been here for a while. I have learnt a lot and tried to give something back as well. I care about the continued success of forexstreet.net and that is why I am taking a few minutes to write my personal thoughts here.

The membership here I think runs into tens of thousands, perhaps the largest of such forums.…


Added by Oasis on December 16, 2014 at 7:12pm — 2 Comments

Risky EURNZD short

This is risky and goes contrary to popular opinion that is screaming 'go long'. I like this short based purely on price action and will take a small position if I get an opportunity at current or higher levels.

Caution is advised.…


Added by Oasis on December 14, 2014 at 9:03pm — No Comments


I already took a small position and here is what I am seeing. Taking a monthly view, I see that a 38.20% retracement in the down move already completed.

The weekly view seems to confirm this with what looks like a lower top already established in the down move.…


Added by Oasis on December 6, 2014 at 3:40pm — 1 Comment

Looking for a short NZDCAD

NZDCAD and GBPCAD have been lagging their USD counterparts last week. Usually they do tend to move in a similar direction and so I am expecting some CAD strength next week. See H12 chart for NZDCAD below. My choice of taking a short is NZDCAD simply because I believe there is lot of room for NZDUSD to fall.…


Added by Oasis on November 29, 2014 at 11:55am — 7 Comments

NZDUSD short is hard to resist

In my opinion this is a pair where the fundamentals and price action are in sync. Neither side wants a rise in price.

The monthly view below shows us how high the price has been of recent and desire of RBNZ to bring it down is known to everyone.

Taking a look at the daily chart, we see that…


Added by Oasis on November 22, 2014 at 3:02pm — No Comments

Will you buy this pair?

Take a look at the daily chart

Now see the zoomed in H4…


Added by Oasis on November 8, 2014 at 3:32am — 10 Comments


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