Oasis's Blog (95)

NZDUSD short is hard to resist

In my opinion this is a pair where the fundamentals and price action are in sync. Neither side wants a rise in price.

The monthly view below shows us how high the price has been of recent and desire of RBNZ to bring it down is known to everyone.

Taking a look at the daily chart, we see that…

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Added by Oasis on November 22, 2014 at 3:02pm — No Comments

Will you buy this pair?

Take a look at the daily chart

Now see the zoomed in H4…

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Added by Oasis on November 8, 2014 at 3:32am — 10 Comments

Expecting NZD weakness 03-07 Nov

Just thinking aloud, not recommending any trade. Let us take a look at NZDUSD on the daily. The downtrend that started in July halted in the end of Sep and then began a period of consolidation that has a mix of red and white days. The bulls made some ground but the bias has shifted to the down side again. The counter - trend line (blue) has been broken rather convincingly last Fri and I am thinking that a big move down is not far away.…

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Added by Oasis on November 1, 2014 at 7:00pm — No Comments

Possible short on EURCAD

The 6 hour chart is quite clearly showing what I am thinking. First target is not shown but will be just above 1.41177. I invite your comments.…

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Added by Oasis on September 11, 2014 at 9:58pm — 3 Comments

EURGBP should continue its fall

Earlier today I commented that taking quick profits is a wise strategy these days. Time and again we have been seeing the market make a logical move but then quickly reverse. However when I look at EURGBP chart (see H12 chart below) the 20EMA has held price really well. A retracement also seems to have been completed today (Fri 18 July).…

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Added by Oasis on July 19, 2014 at 2:22am — 2 Comments

Possible long CADJPY

Some of the Yen crosses are showing bullish signs. I like CADJPY the most for a few reasons:

1) Price has moved above 200sma.

2) Recent high at 94.700 has been broken.

3) Price has tested that level over the last few days and it has held as support.

4) Bullish pin bars have formed at that level during the last two days.

See daily chart below.…

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Added by Oasis on June 27, 2014 at 11:48pm — 1 Comment

The cleanest price action chart I could find for the week of 16 June

I have never traded DJ30 but the daily chart below is really clean and crisp. Price action is so measured with minimal shadows. It does point to a move higher.

Perhaps someone who trades this can give an opinion?…

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Added by Oasis on June 14, 2014 at 1:32am — No Comments

USDJPY - decision time again !!

For the 12th time this year, UJ is back to 101.30-101.50 zone. Each of the previous visits have resulted in a bounce up, although they have been declining in magnitude recently. The 200MA is a level that most traders consider a buy/sell line and price is still above it.

I was not able to…

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Added by Oasis on May 18, 2014 at 2:39pm — 3 Comments

CADCHF long?

This is not a very popular pair but see daily chart below. The 20ema has been a pretty good guide of the trend and it appears to me that the down trend may be over. I am looking for a pull back to/close to the 20ema and an appropriate signal to go long.…

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Added by Oasis on May 8, 2014 at 9:40pm — 6 Comments

Who is in control of the market?

I recently had the opportunity to watch one of Nick B's free webinars. For those who have not heard of him, he is a price action trader with clean charts and only s/r zones that he plots on his charts.

His trading method is looking for price reversals at s/r zones using H4 and higher time frames only. Sorry this is not a promo for Nick but I wanted especially newer traders to have a bit of background about what I wanted to really say in this blog. 

The one thing…

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Added by Oasis on April 12, 2014 at 1:10am — 1 Comment

Is the AUD headed down next week?

I just finished looking at some daily charts and this is what I see:

AUDCAD - tried to penetrate MR1 at 1.0058 and did, but got rejected. The last attempt to break that level was in Oct 2013 and did not succeed either. Is this pair headed down?

AUDCHF - This pair is already in a downtrend and I am attaching this chart. Note the symmetry in price action between 17 Dec and 07 Mar (today). …

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Added by Oasis on March 8, 2014 at 3:28am — 1 Comment

AUDNZD - looks like another opportunity might come

There was an opportunity to go long in this pair on 27/28 Jan. But even though price went this low for the first time since Dec 2005, I was still not sure. The price action signal was also there, yet there was hesitation in my mind. See daily chart below.

Price did go up about 300 pips, but…

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Added by Oasis on March 1, 2014 at 2:06am — 64 Comments

The extra extraordinary AUDNZD

I have never seen a chart like this one. Shown below is a monthly view. The 20 EMA you see is useless. I put on the Ichimoku even though it is perhaps the most lagging of them all. For the first time I saw price below the cloud on all time frames, even the 1 minute. I am sure any oscillator will only show oversold status.

I am a price action trader and cannot at this moment see a trade. While the 4 hour view shows a double bottom, a continuation down cannot be ruled out or rather is…

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Added by Oasis on December 14, 2013 at 2:18pm — 2 Comments

Time for GBP to rollover?

As you can see from the attached 4 hour GBPAUD chart, the 20EMA did a fairly good job of holding up price since 05 November. Dips below the 20EMA were not deep and did not last long either, indicating that the bears had no strength.

This seems to be changing now as evidenced by the pin bar of…

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Added by Oasis on December 7, 2013 at 1:56pm — 5 Comments

Please give me a second chance

Having missed some of the recent run on USDJPY, my thought was damn, another opportunity lost!! But they say that the market usually gives you a second chance to hop onboard. This is what I think I am seeing in the chart below.

How much lower will price get to, I have no idea - perhaps to my horizontal green line. But my thought is to watch the 1 hour chart and take my cue from there since I do believe that the bull run is far from over.…

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Added by Oasis on November 22, 2013 at 2:38pm — 28 Comments

This has educational value

You all have seen price action on CHFJPY just now - price shot up to beyond its highs and then bounced off the monthly resistance level. When you see this happen at significant levels you must be alert. It is possible that smart money actually wants to bring the price down and is influencing and manipulating it to go high instead.

Why do they do this? Quite simply if they want to sell they need to have buyers to sell it to. So pushing price up does 2 things - Firstly…

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Added by Oasis on November 19, 2013 at 4:22pm — No Comments

Why is the quality dropping here at fxstreet.net

I wonder if anyone else has noticed but this is a fact. It used to be customary for trade related blogs to be based on some analysis showing why a trader thought price would move in a particular direction. We used to see charts and explanations and this generated a lot of debate and exchange between members was healthy and sometimes even became heated. But the result was good quality content.

It is therefore unfortunate that sub standard content is now being encouraged. I see…

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Added by Oasis on November 19, 2013 at 2:24am — 15 Comments

USDSEK - Possible short

Perhaps some of you liked my demo trade of USDNOK last week. Here is an identical setup on USDSEK. I think the message here is quite clear:

- Serious price rejection at 6.6520 over last 2/3 days.

- Bounce off the monthly R2

see chart attached.

I have no idea of spreads on this…

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Added by Oasis on November 16, 2013 at 11:30pm — 5 Comments

The value of patience

Before everyone gets too impressed let me tell you that this is a DEMO trade. However the lesson to be learnt is valid. I was watching this USDNOK pair for a few days wondering if it was a good pair to trade. I noticed the bullish move on Tues and wondered if price would get to the high of 05 July. If it did I decided to short it hoping for repeat of 08 July bearish move. This did not happen and the pair started falling. I waited until market close yesterday before going short. I now had 3…

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Added by Oasis on November 15, 2013 at 9:00pm — 1 Comment

Is this going to be the week of the CAD

Scanning the weekly and daily charts of the week gone by, somehow drew my attention on the CAD. From a news perspective there is no CAD related announcement before Thu., so that is good.

AUDCAD - See weekly chart below. 1.00150 seems like an important level that could not be breached again and a strong pin bar suggests that the bears are once again in control.…

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Added by Oasis on November 9, 2013 at 2:34pm — 11 Comments

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