Oasis's Blog (126)

Considering a short on NZDJPY

As you can see from the daily chart below, price has been in a range (91.85 - 88.00) since mid Feb. Also note that the 200 SMA has done a pretty decent job of acting as a s/r level during the last few months. I am interpreting price action during the last 10 days as break below the SMA followed by a few retests, the last one being on Fri. My downside bias is further strengthened by the bearish pin bar formed on Friday.

To be fair, it is certainly possible for price to stay within the…


Added by Oasis on May 23, 2015 at 9:34pm — No Comments

Looking to short GBPCAD

I have never had much luck with this pair but will give this another shot. Starting with the daily chart I see price almost made it to 1.9000 but was shot down. A pin bar formation at an important level is significant to me. The 1.8900 level was also a rejection level on 17 and 31 March and price has just moved below that level on Fri. Do we have sellers in that area? It does seem possible.…


Added by Oasis on May 17, 2015 at 12:44am — 11 Comments

Thank you Forexstreet.net

It was a bit of a shock to read that our daily hangout will be closing down soon. Somehow I had taken it for granted that forexstreet would always be here for us.

From a personal perspective I can say that I have benefited a lot here. I came here quite raw, unsure and with no confidence as a trader. I have had quite a turn around in this regard. Just being here reading the blogs of other traders, asking questions, watching the webinars or going through some of the educational material…


Added by Oasis on May 15, 2015 at 11:18pm — 11 Comments

Waiting to short NZDUSD

This trade may require some patience and therefore the title. Starting with the weekly chart, the trend is seen as bearish. Price is well below the 200 SMA. Last week candle has formed a shooting star look alike, so further downside should be likely. Not to forget RBNZ saying last week that price was too high.

Central Banks don't always get what they want, not…


Added by Oasis on May 2, 2015 at 10:00pm — 3 Comments

Continuing with EURGBP short.

Each week I try to post 1 trade that I feel more confident about but this week it has been a challenge to do that. I remain bullish on the USD simply because the US although has had quite a few 'missed expectations' kind of data released, it is without doubt ahead of anyone else in the recovery phase. Many pairs that I looked at are in retracement/consolidation phases, so moving away from USD pairs I am considering again EURGBP. 

This was a trade I took earlier this month and I still…


Added by Oasis on April 25, 2015 at 8:27pm — 5 Comments

Be the one in control !!

Over the past few months I have been approached by a few people seeking help in trading. First of all I do not consider myself any kind of expert in this business. I therefore cannot accept the responsibility of managing your account or trading with your money. I am also not qualified to provide any education in how to trade.

The purpose of this post is however to offer some advise on how to start the process of becoming better and more consistently profitable traders. Yes, it…


Added by Oasis on April 24, 2015 at 3:39am — 2 Comments


Starting at the weekly chart, we can see a downtrend although the previous 11 weeks have been bullish. The 0.7683 area that used to be support has been now acting as resistance however, having successfully resisted an upward continuation 2 times in the last 4 weeks.

Switching to the daily view further confirms this. We can see price well below the 200SMA that…


Added by Oasis on April 18, 2015 at 5:20pm — 6 Comments

Looking for a long entry on USDCAD

Despite the confusion in the timing of interest rate increase in the USD, I think everyone agrees that the US will be the first one to increase rates. Keeping in view current trends and this fact, it seems prudent to keep a long bias towards the USD. Shorts on EU, AU and GU are obvious trends that may well continue but I am also looking to find a low risk new position and think that USDCAD may be the one to provide that.

The weekly view shows consolidation for the last 9 weeks in a…


Added by Oasis on April 12, 2015 at 3:50pm — 1 Comment

Short setup on EURGBP

I am looking at the daily chart and it is obvious that 0.73800 has shifted from being a support to a resistance level. It defended the level on 26 March and then again today 03 Apr. Price has fallen back about 40 pips today.

Zooming in, now on the H12 chart, I get a better sense of price rejection at 0.73800 and I am of the opinion that a reversal is going to…


Added by Oasis on April 4, 2015 at 2:41am — 12 Comments


Let us start with a monthly view. We see that the downtrend that started in Nov 2008 retraced to the 1.5500 level. It then tried another leg up but was held at the 38.20% level and the trend is down again for the last 3 months.

Now let us take a look at the weekly. Price was being supported by the trend line (green) until 2 weeks ago when it broke through to…


Added by Oasis on March 21, 2015 at 6:27pm — 6 Comments

Looking for high probability trades during week of 16 March

It is my intention to avoid USD and most EUR trades this week - just not comfortable with the prolonged USD strength and EUR weakness. I am wary of pullbacks that may not be very shallow. After scanning a few pairs it is my opinion that we may be about to see some strength return to GBP and continued weakness in AUD. Here is a summary of the pairs that I am watching for opportunities.


Take a look at the weekly chart. Note that we are below the 200SMA (also…


Added by Oasis on March 15, 2015 at 3:52am — 5 Comments

Trading the weekly chart AUDJPY

I have never found it easy to trade the weekly chart. The biggest challenge for me is to have the patience to see the trade through to the end and often end up taking profit too early. This time I have demo traded a short on AUDJPY.

As you see in the chart below, we had almost 3 weeks of bullish action followed by 2 weeks where indecision was the main sentiment. I entered short this week, was late by a day but the trade is valid. For target there looks like a nice confluence at 90.00…


Added by Oasis on March 11, 2015 at 2:13pm — 2 Comments

Looking for high probability trades during week of 09 March

It's always nice to trade with the trend. I find comfort in the fact that by using small trading positions I can compensate for early (bad) entry by having the ability to hold on for longer. Unless the trend reverses completely I can avoid a loss.

Friday's NFP numbers leave no doubt in my mind that the USD will continue to strengthen, so I am looking for options to benefit from that. When price reaches extreme levels not seen in years I find it difficult to trade, partly…


Added by Oasis on March 7, 2015 at 4:51pm — 24 Comments

Risky AUDNZD long

AS you know I am big on market giving me a price action signal before I trade but I broke my own rule and took this long. I based it purely on the multi year low level that can easily be broken.

I took a small position because of this and even though it is up 37 pips, I know it can easily reverse. Testing the waters with a small position is not too bad as if…


Added by Oasis on March 5, 2015 at 4:19am — 12 Comments

Sometimes it is good to just stay away

As always there is a lot of interest in the forum in AUDUSD. The picture on the daily looks quite clear. The blue trend line has been respected, a bounce occurred earlier today. The overall trend is down, price is well below the 200SMA  so going short looks a safe bet.

Switching to the H4, you will see the box that has largely contained recent moves. But there…


Added by Oasis on March 4, 2015 at 5:35pm — No Comments

Looking to short XAUUSD

My apologies for drawing my trend lines the way that fits what I am thinking. But the variation if you draw them your way will not be too far from mine.

I am looking to go short on gold once it breaks below 1204.70. First target will be the blue trend line.

In case price goes the other way. a break above the red trend line perhaps with a retest will be the signal to enter long.

Either way this is a tight corner and a break out is imminent. My own bias is to the short…


Added by Oasis on March 1, 2015 at 5:08pm — 4 Comments

GBPUSD short

At the end of June 2014 began a downtrend in the cable that lasted until mid Jan 2015 losing 2,300 pips in this process as the weekly chart below shows. Since then the GBP has recovered a bit making it to 23.6% retracement level last week.

Next I take a look at the daily chart. Price has been well contained by the 20 EMA both during the downtrend and now again…


Added by Oasis on February 21, 2015 at 10:11pm — 20 Comments

A look at NZDUSD

Let us start by looking at the weekly chart. The bearish action has been very powerful with a few strong candles. There was some choppy price action between Sep and Dec and then strong bearish action followed again. the last 2 weeks have seen some decent recovery and so the question is how much recovery will the bulls be able to achieve.

Now we can go down to…


Added by Oasis on February 14, 2015 at 4:30pm — 11 Comments

Patience is a key ingredient for traders

First of all I need to say that I am no expert in trading. Like most people here, I am a student but a keen student developing my skills. Lessons are learnt each day in the forex market and it is important not to forget them. The purpose of this post is just to share one such lesson.

I recently took a long GBPJPY trade that is posted separately, so I will not go into details of how that trade progressed but will talk about it to highlight my subject of patience.

Take a look at…


Added by Oasis on February 11, 2015 at 5:00pm — 1 Comment

Possible Short on EURAUD

I start with the monthly chart to establish the flow in the market. I see a massive down move during Feb 2009 to July 2012, followed by retracemt that lasted till Jan 2014. Now the down trend is in play again.

Switching to the weekly chart, we seem to be at a good point to enter short. I am looking to sell 5 pips below Fri close with stop above that day's…


Added by Oasis on February 7, 2015 at 11:14pm — 4 Comments


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