First, the range. Friday March 8, the range prices were 1.3133 high minus 1.2954 low = 179 pips, divide by 2 and my range is 89.1 pips, divide by 3 and my range is 59.2, multiply 179 by 2 = 358, True Range Average, 1.3043. Are we any smarter by this information, no.
How about measurement of a candlestick or sets of candles, no help either unless candles are measured for what they are and that is the Boxcar Average separated by either an average or Median Line to represent…Continue
Here's a bunch of Non Farm Payroll data, a series that dates historically to 1939. Current data dates from 2003 - present March 2013 because it appears a series change occurred either in the calculation or different manner to look at the data, inclusion of additional data possibly. Not sure regarding this point.
My highly non scientific forecast for today's release is 173,010 and a high of 179,340. This number shouldn't be held in any regard. Most important is…Continue
I last reported an historic average Feb 22 at 1.21186. Today's average now sits at 1.21229, a difference of 43 pips.
Last reported target was 1.2830, now 1.2832, 2 pip difference and a level that must break in order to see lower prices. Last reported upper end price target was 1.4002, today's change is now targeted at 1.4001, a 1 pip difference.
Further upper end targets next season: 1.3542 and 1.4252. Last reported targets were 1.3542 and 1.4254, a 2 pip…Continue
The fact that EU broke the all important line of demarcation that signifies long to short at 1.3214 Wednesday after the release of the FOMC minutes, now says we have a short EU market. We are now in sell rally mode.
Many tout the 1.3240 level to sell corrective pullbacks. This level is a minimum pullback since its only the 5 day average target. 1.3188 was yesterday's 50 day average target so hence the reason for its technical significance today. More importantly, 1.3185 was…Continue
For the past two days, we experienced comments from European officials in attempts to raise the price of the Euro at the same time we heard rumblings from French Finance Minister Moscovici's concerns over a weak Euro. Draghi settled the argument with his statement that the Euro is trading within its long term average which says the ECB is satisfied with EU at current prices. Jon Claude Trichet, former long time head of the ECB, in my memory never uttered one word regarding the…Continue
A special recognition to my friend Lois Sperling at Insideinformation.com of Edmonton Alberta Canada to win the prestigious USA Competitor Analysis Consultancy Firm of the Year Award from Acquisition International Magazine at the M & A awards dinner. Acquisition International is a U.K high quality publication specializing in corporate finance news.
Lois Sperling founder of Insideinformation provides expert and high quality analytical research reports for Business…Continue
Added by Brian Twomey on January 25, 2013 at 10:58pm — No Comments
EUR/GBP. With a distribution average 5- 253 days at 0.8181, I'm presently looking at a reversal at 0.8575 back to at least 0.8312 with a longer term target from MA's back to 0.8225..With an 0.8181 average considered the mean and neutral point, a break changes the structure longer term short. Current prices are approaching the 95% confidence interval from 0.8181 and currently far overbought.
EUR/CAD. Distribution average of 1.2995 and looking for a reversal at…Continue
To move EUR/GBP up, we must buy Euros, sell GBP's. Why buy Euros rather than GBP's? Interest rates, 0.75 Eurozone vs 0.50 UK. Higher interest rate currencies always outperform the lower currency. But as EUR/GBP rises, GBP/EUR falls. To understand exchange rates is to look at the morning United States Fix,
Jan 22, EUR/GBP was fixed at 1 EUR = 0.83965 while 1 GBP cost or = 1.19097, a Fix price of 0.70501 but a market price 0.8400 thereabouts.. GBP/EUR consequently was Fixed…Continue
We are in the vicinity of day 14 with a stuck EU trading within 100 pips of its range. I'm as concerned as the rest so I worked out a few forecasts. I'll skip the blah blah long winded methodologies except to offer preliminaries. But know these forecasts are mathematically correct and represent exact standard deviations so a break of any points in this distribution up or down represent important statistical significance. A break above says we're heading higher while a break below…Continue
When EU achieved the 3300 level, its been contained in a dead neutral zone hence the reason for its 100 pip range bound movement over the past 9 trading days. The dead neutral zone is the 50% confidence interval zone drawn from the 2800 to 3800 95% confidence interval parameters around Jan 1st. At 1.3300, 500 hundred pips separates the upper and lower boundaries of the range and leaves our EU stuck dead center. When EU hit its 1.3044 lows Jan 4th?, it didn't have a choice but to…Continue
USD/JPY currently sits at 81.21 and is seriously overbought at these levels from all longer and intermediate term levels. The current EU levels reveal nothing in terms of future direction except for shorter term 5 and 10 day averages that will correct from 1.2800 to 1.2755 with a Mathematical Stop, my benchmark at 1.2760. So to look at USD/JPY for a EU view reveals EU appears to be heading higher which will support and resolve my 1.2850 long trade with either a profit or…Continue
Trade Recommendation # 15 Sell GBP/NZD at 1.9572 to Target = 1.9517, + 55
Mathematical Stop, My Benchmarks = 1.9555, 1.9553, 1.9524,
Posted trades here are part of an educational experiment to prove math predicts market prices and targets. Trades for me are live as part of this experiment to honor my committment to trades and targets. Please manage your trades and stops based on account levels.
So far, this experiment has yielded 11 closed trades…Continue
Trade Rec 13 Long NZD/USD 0.8100 Target = 0.8153, + 53
Mathematical Stops, Benchmarks= 0.8118, 0.8123, 0.8148
Trade Rec #14 Sell NZD/JPY 65.83, Target= 65.05, + 78
Mathematical Stops, Benchmarks = 65.74, 65.62, 65.36,
This is an educational exercise, please manage your own trades as to your own comfort levels. My trades are live here.
11 trades closed since Oct 25, + 900. 1 Trade ongoing.
Trade recommendations posted here are educational to prove that math predicts markets. To honor my recommendations, I take these trades so my own dough rides with their success or possible failures. Failures are rare days but it occurs.
Posted here are trades 11 and 12 of 20. All trades posted must have minimum targets of 50 pips which I honored. The goal is 1000 pips in 20 trades without a loss. So far, 9 trades closed for 730 pips banked.
2 trades are open, # 8…Continue
I invite all to view the individual forecasts in the "Expert Poll" and notice only two are EUR/USD bullish 1 week from this Friday;s close. One has a PHD in Applied Statistics, the other holds the view of a 1.2835 forecast while I remain wedded to 1.2850. Go back and compare those 1.2600, 1.2500 and 1.2400 forecasts this Friday when closing prices report. I know exactly what you will find.
I employ 7 averages, 5, 10, 20 , 50, 100, 200 and 253. Associated with each average…Continue
Trade Recommendation 9 ---Sell EUR/USD at 1.2850 to 1.2922 is ongoing and for now will remain ongoing. This trade was recommended on NFP Day, Nov 2. When a clearer picture becomes evident, I will immediately post.
Trade Recommendation 10-- Long EUR/USD at 1.2750 to 1.2850 remains as the 1.2850 target will hit for + 100. All will see 1.2851 hit but only target 1.2850. At this time, I will reevaluate Trade recommendation # 9 at the 1.2850 entry. If the 1.2850 entry trade is…Continue
Written here without a prior plan, I hopefully bring enlightenment to those interested.
Here's my question. What type of traders exist. Let's begin with Waves and cycles. We must go back to three market greats to investigate, Charles Dow, Elliott and the ultimate great in my opinion William Delbert Gann.
Charles Dow in the early 1900's found markets correct to 1/3 of price based on his mathematical calculations. Born was the first trend line charted to catch 1/3…Continue
Buy EUR/USD at 1.2850 to 1.2922, + 72 pips.
The targets are 5, 10 and 20 day averages particularly the 5 day which reached its maximum distance.
Mathematical Stop, my benchmark is found at 1.2887. This is a hot trade that I call my Paris Hilton in the motorcyclwe outfit.
This trade says no problem with the GBP/CHF target at 1.5034. My trades are actual and real to put my honesty and sincerity into this exercise with my friend Peter
Added by Brian Twomey on November 2, 2012 at 1:36pm — No Comments
Sell GBP/CHF at 1.5088 to 1.5034, + 54 pips.
This pair is considered a "Dollar pair" , a US dollar since essentially it moves in conjunction with US Treasury Bonds. Further its a combination pair that matches Swiss Confederate Bonds with UK Gilts. Therefore a "safe " currency trade that lacks risk elements such as the EURo, GBP, AUD and NZD.
Current averages are positive except for the 50 day which is slightly negative. The target here is the 20 day average that…Continue