ING Bank - Quarterly Foreign Exchange Forecasts

Very interesting view from Capital Economics... do you agree?

Francesc

Capital Economics - "Recent actions by euro-zone policymakers and the ECB in particular have prompted some commentators to conclude that the region has turned a corner. But we still expect the crisis to deepen again soon, perhaps resulting in the start of some form of euro-zone fracturing next year. Italian and Spanish government bond yields have dropped sharply since Mario Draghi’s pledge to do…

Rabobank - "For the FX market the net result of QE is that the USD will likely continue to perform poorly as investors seek out higher yields.  Since the start of the Eurozone crisis Fed policy has ensured that periods of USD weakness have taken the edge off downside pressure in EUR/USD and provided the currency pair good support.  On a 1 year view we expect risk appetite will continue to find support and while the Eurozone crisis is still worthy of provided dips in EUR/USD we expect that…

BBH - "Euro: Look consolidative to weaker activity.

Yen: Yen weakness ahead of the election, which could still see "sell the rumor buy the fact" type of activity afterwards.

Sterling: Consolidaitve trading is the most likely scenario.

Swiss franc: The franc may outperform the euro.

Canadian dollar: The technical condition is among the strongest of the major currencies.

Australian dollar: Impressive resilience. Yield pick up remains…

congratulations Brian!

Francesc

Interview with Brian Twomey

By DailyFX.com

Brian Twomey is a full-time trader, author of “Inside the Currency Market” published by Wiley and a new upcoming book, “Using the Z-Score to Trade Foreign Exchange and Other Financial Instruments”. Brian has a very unique…

FXstreet's main competitor is re-branding to investing.com... uhmmm, I am not sure if I should start applying for a job or to be happy.... let's see.

For many years ForexPros was a copycat of FXstreet.com. The sites were so alike that they seemed like  twins. As a pure FX portal, they had a huge problem that was FXstreet.com.

Then they took their own way moving away from pure FX. The tipping point for the move was to incorporate real-time stocks prices through CFDs from an…

Capital Economics - "If it were not for the euro-zone crisis, world economic growth would probably gather pace next year. Prospects for the US are brightening, there has been significant progress with private sector deleveraging and we think oil prices are more likely to fall than rise. However, in practice, we expect a deepening of the euro-zone crisis, continued public sector austerity and a structural slowdown in key emerging economies to keep global growth weak in 2013-2014."

(...)…

UBS - "We continue to prefer the dollar amongst the major currencies. Foreign exchange markets are already largely discounting the Fed easing policy further when 'Operation Twist' finishes this month. But they are not reflecting additional easing from the world's other major central banks in 2013. This week's key points for currencies are:

- dollar already pricing in upcoming Fed easing

- euro bulls should heed ECB, Bundesbank downgrades

- USDJPY bulls shouldn't exit after…

Danske Bank - "NZD/USD – Breaking above 16-month trendline resistance

Strategy Summary – Buy at .8310 for an objective of .8842. Place stop at .8160.

US 5v10Yr Yield Spread – Awaits break below 95 targeting 84/75

Strategy Summary – Sell into any near-term widening towards 107 for a return to test supports at 84, possibly 75. Place stops over 115 and consider going long on a break of 121.

Cash Gold – Is the current dip a…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP/USD: Some disappointing follow through from the break-out of the channel last week, but the sentiment remains that GBP should step up to be the outperformer from the USD, EUR and GBP group. Still the longer-term picture is for GBP/USD to remain below the 1.6306 level into Q1 of next year and still looking for the downside targets of either 1.56 or 1.53 before the bounce occurs. This channel break only looks like a short-term squeeze to 1.6176…

The Four Musketeers of Forexstreet.net: Do Not Miss Their Work Every Day!

Alexandre Dumas first serialized his Musketeer novel in March 1844. The swashbuckling adventures of 4 inseparable friends - D'Artagnan, Athos, Porthos & Aramis. French Musketeers who live by the motto - "All for one. One for all."…

Westpac - "FX: The prospect of the Fed boosting QE3 by at least $25bn should weigh on USD this week, though European news flow might help limit USD/Europe losses at least while positioning should constrain the dollar bloc.

• AUD/USD: The pair emerged stronger despite the RBA cut and soggy GDP but the 1.0520 area remains hard work given stretched positioning. The calendar suggests any range-break will be to the top…

BBH - We highlight 10 market drivers ahead of the holiday:
1. Italian Politics
2. Fiscal Cliff
3. FOMC
4. Greece’s Bond Buy-Back
5. Canada’s Decision on Foreign Investment
6. Chinese Economic Data
7. Swiss National Bank Meeting
8. European Summit
9. Juncker to Step Down
10. Japanese Elections

Goldman Sachs - Central Bank Watch…

UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As trend indicators are bullish, there is scope for the pair to resume strength. Resistance is at 1.2973 ahead of 1.3127. Support lies at 1.2840.
EURGBP NEUTRAL While support at 0.8032 holds, watch for a resumption of upside. Resistance is at 0.8082 ahead of 0.8169."

NAB - FX Strategy Targets

07/12/2012 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13

Australian Dollar AUD/USD 1.0487 1.03 1.01 1.00 0.99 0.99

New Zealand Dollar NZD/USD 0.8333 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.81 0.81

Japanese yen USD/JPY 82.36 86 84 87 89 90

Euro EUR/USD 1.2942 1.33 1.34 1.37 1.36 1.35

British Pound GBP/USD 1.6034 1.63 1.61 1.63 1.62 1.60

Swiss Franc USD/CHF 0.9334 0.92 0.92 0.91 0.92 0.93

Canadian Dollar USD/CAD 0.9891…

Rabobank - "The resignation of Italy’s technocrat PM Monti at the weekend has re-awakened fears of a return to old style political theatre in the country and brought some fresh downside pressure for the EUR.  Italy, which could go to the polls in February, will not be the only country to stage an election next year. (...) The notion that Eurozone politicians are more open to the idea of fiscal union has clearly been supportive for the EUR in recent months.  So too has the mere existence of…

Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD: Finally some aggressive moves in the foreign exchange markets and finally they move in line with my forecast! The resistance level proved too much between 1.3066/3172 which was the area around the previous highs from the 17th of September and the 17th of October. Now the downside should start in earnest and the cluster of lows and retracement levels between 1.2876/2893 is the stand out obstacle before the range lows at 1.2662. To enter trades here is hard…

Deutsche Bank -

• G10: We remain bullish EUR and bearish USD into year-end as we believe the Fed is likely to ease and the ECB unlikely to cut the deposit rate. The wider flow picture is also supportive for the euro:

• We see the dollar staying soft around the turn of the year. We don’t believe the ECB will cut deposit rates. As such we remain bullish EUR/USD though our 1.35 year-end target…

National Bank Financial - "Peering over a cliff can give vertigo and this is what seems to be happening to the US economy. Growth stateside is set to decelerate sharply in Q4 partly due to the damage caused by storm Sandy, but mostly because of the uncertainty brought by the fiscal cliff. We suspect that risk aversion could make a comeback as markets price-in a higher probability of a US recession. The US dollar can therefore rebound over the next few months at the expense of the euro and…