- USD/TRY (Turkish Lira)
- USD/IDR (Indonesian Rupiah)
- USD/EGP (Egyptian Pound)
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 9, 2013 at 5:42pm — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- upcoming FOMC forecast round key for dollar strength
- ECB inaction to support euro on the crosses
- the new BoJ won't disppoint USDJPY bulls
- MPC waits for Budget BoE review, stay short Cable
- SNB to stay on hold in the week ahead, watch USDCHF
- Norges Bank also to remain unchanged next week
- Australian jobs, RBNZ meeting should temper AUDNZD rally"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director &…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 9, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments
Westpac - "We have opened a short EUR/USD position at 1.3012, targeting a run at the 1.27-1.28 zone.
As today's price action following the decent US payrolls shows, the USD appears to be in the midst of a correlation shift that gives it the look and feel of a pro-cyclical growth currency that responds positively to good US news. We have reservations around seasonal biases which tend to inflate the US data early in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 2:38pm — No Comments
ING Bank - "February has presented an unambiguously good US nonfarm payrolls report, with both the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate pushing in very encouraging directions. Non-farm payrolls rose 236K, up from 119K, which was part of a 15K net downward revision to the previous month’s data.
(...) The near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally (especially against the JPY and GBP). With the Fed committed to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 2:13pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "Our long-term views are driven by our structural bearish stance on the USD. The weak balance of payments of the US vs. the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area still implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Following the announcement of the ECB’s OMT programme in September, there was a strong rally in the EUR due to a perceived reduction in Euro area tail risk. In the last month however, EUR has fallen due to uncertainty resulting from the Italian election. While…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 1:08pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "USD/JPY: The biggest loser against the USD overnight was the JPY. USD/JPY broke the 95.50 barrier to trade at a 3 ½ year high. The move has stirred talk that the JPY could be entering into weaker phase. The bearish yen outlook is supported by the view that while the BoJ left policy on hold at this week’s policy meeting, more monetary policy stimulus is widely expected to be announced on April 3-4 on the anticipation that Kuroda will have taken up the position of BoJ…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 12:44pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.3162 holds, the pair remains vulnerable. Support is at 1.2965, a break below would pave the way for weakness to test 1.2877.
EURGBP BULLISH Yesterday's sharp advance confirmed the momentum crossing higher again. Focus on resistance at 0.8831 ahead of 0.8886. Support is at 0.8576.
EURJPY BULLISH With the MACD threatening to cross above its zero line, the risk is for resumption of bull trend. Resistance is at 127.71. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 9:42am — No Comments
UBS - "Traditionally, the dollar's moves against the euro and yen gain the most attention. But investors who share our view that the greenback will rally broadly this year should track the dollar's value against the Swiss franc.
(...) This year we expect the dollar to appreciate to 1.20 against the euro, 100 against the yen and 1.41 against the pound. The US economy is outperforming its peers.
(...) investors should keep a close eye on USDCHF as the currency market's true compass. As…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 8:35am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "With all due respect to industrial production data in Sweden and Germany, and to Swiss CPI, the focus is on US payrolls. ADP and the weekly claims figures point to an above-consensus gain. And the ISM employment indices suggest the data could be excellent. SG's forecast is at the top end of the range. This should be dollar supportive. I'm going high in the office sweep and I hope to persuade everyone else that possibility of good data has bene over-hyped, and the smart…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD Bias: The global appetite for USD despite aggressive Fed QE and a sluggish US economy makes it tough for AUD/ USD to break above 1.0380. Key commodity prices also remain unimpressive regardless of China property scares. The domestic story is mixed, not soft enough for the RBA to deliver on its easing threat but enough for markets to keep leaning towards at least one more cash rate cut. But underlying demand for risk assets is persistent (MS Asia-Pac shares at…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "The TD View: Trading Vias:
US: Position for long term USD gains. Buy short term dips.
Canada: Look to sell CAD rallies.
Europe: Sell EUR rallies below 1.3250.
Asia/Pacific: Both AUD and NZD are sagging below our mid-year targets but yield-seeking will prevail again
LatAm: We like short BRLMXN, targetting 6.34, or 6.16 if central bank comments support a sharp adjustment in rate expectations.
EMEA: We like short EUR/PLN, targetting 4.07. USD/RUB cheap…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 5:00pm — No Comments
HSBC - "The dollar has risen materially on an index basis since the end of January and is higher against all other G10 currencies. While many would probably dismiss this move as reflecting no more than the effect of the negative stories that have afflicted the euro, the yen and sterling, there is a growing risk that its rally could be extended. A significant surprise in Friday’s payrolls, either positive or negative, could both see the dollar rise.
US activity data have been generating…
National Bank Financial - "The US dollar just had its best month since May 2012. While last May concerns about the European sovereign debt crisis lifted the greenback, this time it was politics that prompted flows towards the world’s reserve currency. Congress failed to avert the automatic spending cuts, something which raised doubts about the US economic outlook this year. European politics also curbed investor enthusiasm with Italian elections yielding no clear winner and setting the stage…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 1:49pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "(...) The above is shifting the platelets in favour of the USD. It's happening now. It is happening before Bernanke ends QE, because Bernanke has established his credibility, because the US is closer to the exit game even if it may be another year away. It is happening long before there is any rate rise in the US. The dollar will rally now because if China or Europe falters we will need its safe-haven status. It will rally now because Japan and the UK are two steps…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 1:19pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As the pair closed below the support at 1.2997, this is a major bearish development, paving the way for weakness to 1.2877. Resistance is at 1.3080.
USDJPY BULLISH With trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, watch for a break above resistance at 94.77, opening 97.79. Support is at 92.92 ahead of 92.01.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair extends weakness posting a new corrective low. Support is at 1.4949 ahead of 1.4687. Resistance is at 1.5110 should hold any…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 7, 2013 at 1:09pm — No Comments
UBS - "This year we have been bearish on the yen and the pound's near term outlook. Over a three month timeframe we have projected declines to 95 and 1.53 against the dollar respectively. Recent events have resulted in these short run forecasts being met and suggest that the longer term picture will remain challenging. As a result we downgrade our end 2013 forecasts for both currencies. We now expect USDJPY to trade at 100 by the end of the year, compared to 85 previously, and for GBPUSD to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 6:02pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "On the short side, our models are most negative JPY, closely followed by GBP, CHF and CAD on which we are all bearish. On the long side, the models are long NZD, Scandis and the USD. This basket has already returned 7% this year. We’d stick with the trend, because we think this year marks the beginning of a bull market for currency investing..."…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 10:20am — No Comments
In an effort to offer information for a wider range of currency pairs, we recently added pairs related to four emerging markets on our Currencies At a Glance tool. These are:
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
ANZ - "• The recent dollar rally reflects little more than a pause in flows into risky assets.
• We expect the dollar to remain soft as the global economy heals, and the US’s large basic balance deficit becomes more difficult to fund.
• China’s pre-emptive tightening suggests the RMB will continue to do well, though at the margin takes out some of the upside for regional asset markets.
• The FDI balance is the most likely source of improvement in the US’s external accounts, and…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 9:14am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "EUR/USD is barely holding above 1.3000. The dynamics have changed in the FX market and the change bodes well for the US dollar. However, the ECB decision tomorrow when we expect rates to be left unchanged should limit EUR/USD downside risk for now.
We believe one of the key factors for the dollar performing well is the open-ended nature of QE3 and its linkage to incoming economic data that has been better than data elsewhere. With that in mind, the ADP…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments