UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH Bullish trend conditions are in place and a break above resistance at 93.28 would extend the strength to 94.77. Support is at 90.62.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist and any upside must be limited. Resistance is at 1.5321 which should hold. Support is at 1.5073 ahead of 1.4949.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 1.0149 ahead of 1.0103. Any upside should be limited, with strong resistance area at 1.0343 and 1.0375.
USDCAD BULLISH The pair posted a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 1, 2013 at 8:41am — No Comments
You can agree or disagree with their conclusions..., but for me, this is a brilliant piece of analysis... Bravo for HSBC!
Deutsche Bank - "Almost all currencies appeared to have peaked against the dollar, and the more recent rise in USD/JPY suggest the broad dollar is embarking on a multi-year uptrend. Superior US growth should support the rotation from bonds to equities that will help the dollar. Abenomics shows the scope central banks outside of the US have to weaken their currencies against the dollar. China rebalancing away from investment provides a downside risk to the China-linked currencies that have…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 28, 2013 at 12:45pm — No Comments
"• A trifecta of factors suggests the bottom of the range is likely in for AUD/USD
• These are: positive CAPEX data; RBA indifference around current AUD levels; large reserve managers holding AUD in their portfolios
• We are long AUD/NZD to reflect this view"
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 28, 2013 at 12:42pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR/USD: Tuesdays piece commented on the fact that this level at 1.3040 should be supportive and I’m further buoyed by yesterday’s price action that was a good solid positive day following the reversal pattern witnessed on Tuesday. I think this opens up a short term move back to the trend line break area around 1.3275 and the important Fibonacci retracement level above there at 1.3296. Note too that the fairly distinct head and shoulders pattern looks like it had…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 28, 2013 at 10:14am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair is under recovery following the recent sharp sell-off. The main resistance is at 1.3283. Support at 1.2998 ahead of 1.2877.
EURGBP BULLISH The recent strength brings focus on momentum tools as a closing cross higher would be bullish. Resistance is at 0.8696 ahead of 0.8831. Support is at 0.8576.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The immediate risk appears to be for extension of the consolidation phase. Resistance is at 122.16 ahead of 124.28.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 28, 2013 at 9:15am — No Comments
After 5 consecutive dreadful quarters (Q4 2011 to Q4 2012), it seems that Q1 2013 is trying to go back on track. We all have read here that volatility and volume are progressively coming back in the Interbank market so we were wondering if that was happen in the Retail Forex market as well... If we accept FXstreet.com main site (English) traffic data as an appropriated indicator of the health of the Retail FX, then we can say that we have inputs of back to business as usual…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "How fast is Australia’s mining investment boom set to recede? And are the non- mining sectors of the economy ready to step into the breach? On Thursday February 28th we should get answers to both questions when the capex survey is published. It is arguably Australia’s most important data release for all of this year and we believe the outcome to be pivotal for the Australian dollar. (...) Beware of downside risks, though − if the survey shows spending intentions closer to A$130 bn…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 2:43pm — No Comments
BBH - "The dollar's push to almost JPY94.80 on Monday seemed to complete the multi-month advance. The JPY90 level seems to be the key to whether there is a broad side ways consolidation of a outright correction. A correction can see the dollar slip back to the JPY88.00 area and possibly JPY86.00. This would be broadly consistent with a protracted period of political uncertainty in Europe and soft US yields."
Marc Chandler, Global…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 1:51pm — No Comments
Most Viewed Forex Webinars for the week of February 19th to 25th 2013
#1 Sam Seiden - Using Key Market Correlations For Precise Market Timing
#2 Greg Michalowski - Having the Mindset of a Forex…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 11:46am — No Comments
ANZ - "Early February’s faltering test of 1.3710 is considered to have completed an interim up-leg within a broad consolidation off last year’s test of 1.2030-40. This suggests that EUR/USD will be range bound for much of this year. However, the near-term bias will be for a ratcheting slide to retracement and previous support during H1. The anticipated path is outlined in Figure 6. A near-term rebound and close above 1.3160 is needed to avoid an early spike towards 1.2880 (50% of rebounds…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 9:46am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "In general, everything that has happened will tend to play USD positive on a multi-month basis, to the extent that individual negative currency fundamentals related to the JPY, GBP and CAD have not changed, and now the EUR has largely excluded itself as a possible alternative to the USD as a medium-term long versus these currencies. Equally, particularly now that the USD's natural anti-pole has become less attractive, there is some sense that USD strength is continuing to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. I want to be short AUD/USD, GBP/USD, and why not have a fling with some long CAD/JPY for a 'risk-on' bounce in honour of the great and might Ben Bernanke. A hyper-defensive EM strategy approach seems wise given risks and valuations, and in honour of the awfulness of the Transatlantic economic divide, a day's pause in the Tsy/Bund spread may be replaced by fresh widening imminently... …Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback does not change the bullish picture. Support is at 90.62 ahead of 88.78. Resistance is at 93.28 ahead of 94.77.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist and any upside must be limited. Resistance is at 1.5219 ahead of 1.5321. Support is at 1.5073 ahead of 1.4949.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong resistance at 0.9389 - which is the 'last significant high' of the bear trend, a closing break above would be positive. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 8:52am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The outlook for the GBP remains weak after a dovish speech by BoE’s Fisher and as BoE members in testimony reiterated the views discussed in the recent MPC meeting that they were prepared to take further measures to spur growth. The UK press reports that Deputy Governor Tucker discussed the possibility of charging banks for leaving cash on deposit at the central bank, which appears to mean targeting negative cash rates.
GBP continues to trade below a key…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2013 at 8:36am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The GBP/USD forecast profile has been changed to 1.50 for Q1, 1.47 for Q2, and 1.51 for Q3 and Q4. We would stress that it is sentiment that has turned rather than fundamentals – these were always negative even as GBP appreciated throughout the euro crisis. We expect further downward pressure on GBP, particularly as uncertainty around monetary and fiscal policy intensifies around the budget (March 20) and the change of BoE governor (July 1).
(...) The strong reversal right…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 4:59pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "We expect the full spending sequester to kick in on March 1, with most of the cuts sticking.
(...) The sequester cuts $1.2 trillion of budget authority over a 9-year period (2013- 1). Netting out about $200bn in savings from lower interest payments, that works out to about $109bn in reduced budget authority per year.
(...) The shock to GDP growth will be equally noticeable. The CBO…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 2:18pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "There is, as ever, a super correlation between peripheral European bond spreads and the Euro. Picture in the FX update attached of BTP/Bund for a laugh. The 10yr BTP/Bund spread is at its widest since December, and the Euro at its weakest level since the start of January. Has the bond spread over-reacted, or are we at the start of a longer widening trend? The Euro's low at USD 1.2060- was reached when the yield…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 12:30pm — No Comments
HSBC - "The UK has lost its AAA rating for the first time in its history, following the one notch downgrade by Moody's overnight. The implications for GBP are negative, the more pronounced impact likely to be evident when Asian markets reopen on Monday. We have previously highlighted the downgrade danger as one of the factors behind our bearish stance on GBP. We retain our 2013 year-end forecasts of 1.48 on GBP-USD and 0.91 on EUR-GBP.
(...) We started the year as one of the most bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 26, 2013 at 12:15pm — No Comments
A nice Quiz I found today at FXstreet.com Facebook Page.... What do you say?
It's Quiz Time!
In the below chart, price action has been omitted; only indicators are visible. Which Stochastic crossovers from overbought/oversold conditions would you take as entry signals taking into account the position of the moving averages?…