Francesc Riverola's Blog (2,724)

BTMU - BoE comments help to stabilize pound in the near-term

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has rebounded modestly over the past week with GBP/USD rising from an intra-day low of 1.4832, and EUR/GBP declining from an intra-day high of 0.8794 both recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent rebound follows heavy selling during early 2013 which has resulted in the BoE’s nominal trade-weighted pound index declining by just over 5.0% reaching its lowest level since the middle of 2011.

The pound has found support in the near-term from both a…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 3:26pm — No Comments

Rabobank - Near-term outlook for Sterling has improved but the head winds are still significant

Rabobank - "The BoE’s remit has been changed. However, the move was not as aggressive as it could have been insofar as the 2% inflation target remains the central focus of policy. The news that the BoE will have to include forward guidance with respect to its expectations with respect to policy has the fingerprints of soon-to-be Governor Carney all over it. This is reassuring in the sense that it reasserts the independence of the BoE over a government which is desperate to stimulate growth.…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:20pm — No Comments

Westpac - Trade Recommendation: Sell AUD/NZD

Westpac - "We have sold AUD/NZD at 1.2560, targeting 1.2300 with a trailing stop-loss initially at 1.2690. We will also sell another unit at 1.2590 if that’s reached.

Our main rationale is fundamental. We expect the RBNZ to start tightening around year end while the RBA appears to be on hold pending further economic information, further easing a possibility.

(...) Further, relative commodity prices have moved significantly in the NZD’s favour recently, with the supply-induced boost…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments

UBS - EURGBP A closing break below 0.8445 would be a bearish development; EURJPY A break below 121.15 would expose 118.73

UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2305 ahead of 1.2398. Support is at 1.2167 ahead of 1.2120.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8445 - a closing break below this would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 0.8615 ahead of 0.8684.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term support is at 121.15, a break below would expose 118.73. Resistance is at 126.04 ahead of 127.71."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - Downside in EURUSD rising

Societé Generale - "Downside in EURUSD is rising. 1.28 and then 1.26 would be what our models would see as attractors. We continue to sell EURGBP topside to finance it. Downside protection in USDJPY continues to make sense. Our USDCAD short still hasn't kicked in waiting for bad news at the 1.0450 level.

Case for ECB easing is rising rapidly. The problem with recession in Europe when savings have been balkanized is that those most in need of lower rates suffer the most. They pay an even…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 10:32am — 3 Comments

ANZ - UK Budget Neutral For GBP At Best

ANZ - "• UK budget at best neutral for GBP, but focus on monetary activism implies further, near-term easing in monetary policy.

• Sub-trend economic activity and an absence of wage inflation (real wages are actually falling), suggest that any inflation feedback from the exchange rate will prove temporary. With inflation expectations broadly stable, sterling's weakness should not be an obstacle to further easing.

• The pound has benefitted from the crisis in Europe and a shake out of…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 6:02pm — No Comments

The Rob Booker Trading For A Living Tour - A Trip We Will Closely Follow Here at FXstreet.com/Forexstreet.net

Hi everyone

Our friend and colleague Rob Booker is going to travel across the USA in April 2013, to talk to traders about trading for a living.

On April 1, Rob is going to start a drive across the USA and try to live from the profits on a $10,000 trading account. During the trip he is going to meet and interview many traders. He will be podcasting and doing…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 5:56pm — 4 Comments

Top Forex Social Content For This Month: Gissachance, Jasmine, Peter JCP, Haitham653, Vladimir, Chris BCN and Oasis

Of course we must be cautious with this top content of the month as we all know that Ning's software - the software that runs this community - algorithm to measure top content is quiet a disaster, but as I found some good blog posts that must not be forgotten I have decided to share it here with you all

Francesc

Top Content  This Month

Rank…
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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 3:13pm — No Comments

Goldman Sachs - Yen Move Sustained If BoJ Reinforces Its Rethoric With Firmer Communication and Forceful Action

Goldman Sachs - "The Yen has weakened significantly since late September on the back of PM Abe’s rhetoric about the need to defeat deflation in Japan. This is reflected in a rapid build-up of short Yen positions. In order for the move in the Yen to be sustained, we believe that the BoJ and the Japanese administration need to reinforce their rhetoric with firmer communication and forceful action. While the BoJ did adopt a 2% inflation target at the January meeting, the Bank did not…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 11:48am — No Comments

FXstreet.com Most Viewed Webinars for the week of March 12th to 18th 2013: Sam Seiden, Brandon Wendell, Steve Patterson

FXstreet.com Most Viewed Webinars for the week of March 12th to 18th 2013:

#1 Sam Seiden - Trade Like A Bank

#2 Brandon Wendell - Intraday Trading Tactics for The Forex…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 10:39am — No Comments

M&G Investments - I predict a CypRIOT

M&G’s Ben Lord - I predict a CypRIOT: The three major implications for the European and UK banking systems

Stefan blogged earlier this week about the landmark sovereign bailout occurring in Cyprus, and about some of the interesting issues this raises. Sure enough, the parliament did not approve the package in the form talked about at the weekend. The reason? The taxes were felt too painful for the poor and too lenient for the more wealthy. This harks back to a…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 10:03am — No Comments

FM: Cyprus’ FX and Binary Industries Await Official Ruling – Do They Have A Future?

very interesting read....

Francesc

Cyprus’ FX and Binary Industries Await Official Ruling – Do They Have A Future?

by Andrew Saks McLeod at Forex Magnates

The developments relating to the proposed bailout of Cyprus and the implications that it is likely to have on the established forex and binary options industry…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:57am — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on the next major support at 1.2662; USDCAD BULLISH The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on the next major support at 1.2662, a break below this would be a bearish development in the long term. Resistance is at 1.2996 ahead of 1.3107.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL Only a closing break above strong resistance at 1.0414 would confirm the recent strength, opening 1.0458 and then 1.0599. Support is at 1.0300.

USDCAD BULLISH The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. A break above 1.0296 would open 1.0366 and then 1.0477A. Support is at 1.0214…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:39am — No Comments

RBS - USD Strength Continuing in the Near Term

Royal Bank of Scotland - "As discussed this week, the EUR has developed a consistent down-trend since its peak on 1 Feb. It has continued to grind lower over the last few weeks, working its way through levels it traded in over most of Q4 last year. This weakness is telling and is wearing down the confidence of the bulls that might have viewed the EUR as back in the buy-zone.

Global contagion from Europe has a higher hurdle than in past episodes, with the market underpinned by more…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:26am — No Comments

Rabobank - Cyprus, what next?

Rabobank - "According to several Eurozone officials the ball is firmly in Cyprus’ court.  The Troika are unwilling to lend more than EUR10 bln to the island on the basis that a larger amount would make Cyrus’ overall debt just too high.  If Cyprus cannot levy a tax on smaller depositors it must find another way of raising the necessary funds.  There are reports that at 10 GMT the Finance Minister will announce the outcome of his meetings in Russia.  The existing EUR2.5 bln loan from Russian…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:18am — No Comments

TD Securities - EUR/USD Tests 200-DAY MA At 1.2874

TD Securities - "There’s a lot of focus in the market on the 200-day MA in EUR/USD which is under pressure around the 1.2875 area today. It is noteworthy that the 200-day MA has perhaps been a slightly better support/resistance marker in the past five years than a break up/down signal, however. (...) A weekly close below 1.2874 should be a strong enough of a signal to indicate an likely extension of the weak trend in the EUR towards 1.2650 or so at least."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 6:30pm — No Comments

BofAML - Fund Manager Survey Finds Investors Increasingly Confident in U.S. Outlook and The Dollar

Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "Investors are long assets driven by US growth (Discretionary, Banks, Equities, Real Estate, the US$) and short assets driven by inflation & China (Cash, Energy, Materials, Commodities). So the biggest downside risks to investor positioning is anything that weakens the bullish dominance of the US domestic demand story or a surprise jump in commodity prices and rates.

QE has brought “peace” to the financial world. Investors say “liquidity conditions”…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 6:00pm — No Comments

Fidelity - Will law makers in Cyprus call the Troika's bluff?

Fidelity Worldwide Investment - “It is highly unlikely that the ECB would carry out its threat to cut off the Cypriot banks in the event of a ‘no’ vote as that would precipitate an immediate collapse of Cyprus' banking system and much more serious contagion risk for deposits across the Eurozone. It will therefore be tempting for law makers in Cyprus to call the Troika's bluff. A ‘no’ vote would more likely be followed by further horse-trading, with the Troika possibly upping the amount they…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 5:37pm — No Comments

Westpac - EUR/AUD 1.2350 is the next target

Westpac - "The return of genuine political concerns in the Eurozone should continue to chip away at EUR/USD multi-week while AUD/USD trades broad ranges, leaving EUR/AUD biased to further decline near term. EUR/AUD 1.2350 is the next target but Nov’s 1.22 lows are probably just out of reach so long as Australia’s domestic outlook is soft enough to keep the RBA warning of further monetary easing. The ECB’s bond market backstop plan also argues against substantial further EUR/AUD…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 12:44pm — No Comments

Danske Bank - US Recovery: this time is different

Danske Bank - "We believe the economy will finally be able to reach sustained growth above trend. Fundamentals in the private sector have improved, the housing market should be a significant positive factor and business caution last year has left pent-up demand in investments. Fiscal contraction will weigh on growth, but the fiscal drag is no larger than last year and fundamentals are better.

Consumers have not yet reacted to the significant tax increase imposed in January and we…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 12:37pm — No Comments

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