Francesc Riverola's Blog (2,660)

BTMU - Possibility of Some Dollar Reversal After Recent Strong Gains?

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The US data has impressed, which has been helping the dollar but our view

is that this impressive run of data may be less so over the coming months as the payrolls tax, the sequester and rising gasoline prices eat into discretionary spending power. The IDB/TIPP Consumer Confidence fell sharply last week and gasoline prices advanced 16% from the middle of January to the middle of February raising the risks that consumer spending takes a hit. The retail sales…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 10:12am — No Comments

Goldman Sachs - We raise our FTSE 100 targets, to 6,600, 6,800 and 7,200 over 3, 6 and 12 months

Goldman Sachs - "Given the move down in sterling and the fall in real interest rates we raise our FTSE 100 targets, to 6,600, 6,800 and 7,200 over 3, 6 and 12 months respectively. Our previous targets were 6,200, 6,300 and 6,500 respectively. Our revised 12 month target gives a price return of 10% from current levels and would put the UK market above its previous peak of 6930. Although measuring the price index in dollar terms the market would still be c.25% below peak. We would also prefer…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 9:47am — No Comments

UBS - USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0186 holds, there is scope for a break above resistance at 1.0296

UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH As long as support at 0.9394 holds, watch for a closing cross higher in momentum tools to signal resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9552.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0357 ahead of 1.0414. Support is at 1.0267 ahead of 1.0202.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0186 holds, there is scope for a break above resistance at 1.0296, opening 1.0366. Near-term support is at 1.0235."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 8:35am — No Comments

ANZ - Few Reasons to Buy Sterling and Many Reasons to Sell It

ANZ - "At present, there appear to be few reasons to buy sterling and many reasons to sell it. Whatever the short run dynamics of market positioning are and being wary of chasing currency trends, a retest into a 73.3-75.0 range on the narrow measure of the effective exchange rate is conceivable. That would imply another 5% to 7% depreciation from current levels, taking GBP/USD to the low 1.40s and EUR/GBP into the low 0.90s."…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 4:23pm — No Comments

ANZ - AUD/NZD: Looking To Extend Further

ANZ - "· Look to re-instigate AUD/NZD longs at 1.2440, targeting a move to 1.2650. Set a stop at 1.2330 (we took profit on our long AUD/NZD trade at 1.2470, instigated 19 February at 1.2240)

· In New Zealand the risks look poised to the downside as the market focuses on the developing drought, and on Thursday’s RBNZ MPS.

· By contrast, Australian data this week is likely to exhibit strength, with the NAB Survey likely to reflect gains seen in the AiG survey, and February employment…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:49am — No Comments

NAB - RBA now expected to cut by 50bps ahead (prevously 75bps)

National Australia Bank - "We have changed are rate cut call to two 25 bps cuts for a cumulative 50bps, from our previous forecast of a cumulative 75bps cut. We still see a case for significantly easier monetary policy ahead but acknowledge there have been early signs that lower interest rates are already getting some traction in housing and equity markets, plus the RBA’s expressed ‘comfort’ with current activity, and finally that wholesale funding costs have fallen recently. Given these…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:40am — No Comments

Danske Bank - EUR/USD Short @1.3043 for 1.2886, stop 1.3102; USD/CHF Long @.9472 for .9609; stop .9389

Danske Bank - "EUR/USD SHORT AT 1.3043 FOR 1.2886 OBJECTIVE, STOP 1.3102 S4 1.2886 S3 1.2955 S2 1.2980 S1 1.3007; R1 1.3054 R2 1.3080 R3 1.3102 R4 1.3135
USD/CHF LONG AT .9472 FOR .9609; STOP AT .9389 S4 .9389 S3 .9410 S2 .9454 S1 .9466 R1.9503 R2 .9528 R3 .9552 R4 .9609
AUD/USD BUY AT 1.0270 FOR 1.0375; STOP AT 1.0228 S4 1.0155 S3 1.0182 S2 1.0202 S1 1.0228 R1 1.0341 R2 1.0375 R3 1.0400 R4 1.0416"

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:35am — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD BEARISH A break below 1.2955 would expose 1.2876 ahead of 1.2662

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2955, a break below would expose 1.2876 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3134.

USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength posting new recovery highs. Resistance is at 97.79 ahead of 99.875. Support is at 95.89 ahead of 94.79.

GBPUSD BEARISH The pair extends weakness posting a new corrective low. Support is at 1.4687 ahead of 1.4347. Resistance is at 1.4993 ahead of…

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:27am — No Comments

Rabobank - Where next for the NZD?

Rabobank - "Not a single forecaster on the Bloomberg survey expects anything other than steady rates from the RBNZ this week. However, with New Zealand currently in pole position to be the first G10 country to suffer a rate hike this cycle, there will be plenty of attention steered towards the quarterly Monetary Policy Statement. A key element of this report will be the Bank’s outlook on the housing market. Back in the December Statement the RBNZ warned that “if the housing market continues…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 12, 2013 at 10:19am — No Comments

M&G Investments - Asian currency wars; is China really the ‘currency manipulator’?

M&G Investments - Ever since the Asian financial crisis in 1997, Asian economies have generally engaged in a policy of maintaining artificially cheap currencies in order to generate export-led growth. This led to substantial political pressure being placed on Asian countries, primarily from the US, to allow their currencies to appreciate.

The problem facing export dependent Asia is that this growth model has now broken. Firstly many of Asia’s currencies no longer appear that cheap…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 6:58pm — No Comments

JP Morgan - Technical View For The Day: USDJPY Corrective Retracements Viewed As Buying Opportunities

JP Morgan - "JPY is the key focus following last week’s bearish action and breakout for USD/JPY. With the push through the important 94.77/95.00 resistance zone (includes the 2010 high), the focus is now on the 97.00/97.80 zone (includes the Aug ’09 high). In turn, corrective retracements are viewed as buying opportunities as pullbacks should find support at 94.75/94.10 and 93.50. Still, given the potential momentum divergences, the upside is likely to be more of a grind to new highs. Cross…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 3:41pm — No Comments

HSBC - Renminbi (RMB) fully convertible within five years

HSBC - "(...) given the country’s enormous global clout China’s currency is still severely under-represented in global trade and capital markets. To become a global currency requires full convertibility. Although this will be done gradually, Beijing policy makers are now more confident than ever about speeding up the process. China’s trade imbalance has been corrected and the RMB’s exchange rate is much closer to its equilibrium level. There is evidence that interest rate liberalisation and…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 3:19pm — No Comments

RBS - We retain our negative GBP bias and expect GBP/USD to move into a 1.45-1.50 trading range

Royal Bank of Scotland - "GBP/USD Still the market slides since the important 1.5300 level was broken, 1.5115 and now 1.4907 have been breached too; expect these to morph into resistance levels should the market manage to rally.

The market continues to slide unabated and it seems that none of the important support levels are managing to halt this slide that has accelerated through the big support level at 1.5300. 1.4907 was the 38.2% retracement from the April ’10 rally and below there…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 2:44pm — No Comments

FOREXSTREET.NET WEEKLY NEWSLETTER: 6 Forex Lessons With David Pegler

FOREXSTREET.NET WEEKLY NEWSLETTER

 

1. Six Forex Lessons by David Pegler

David Pegler is a member of our community and a Currency Coach at FxBootcamp.com and was a claimed guest speaker at the latest…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 1:00pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - Consolidation

Societé Generale - "The market went through a large scale adjustment of its CFTC funding position by switching out of their USD shorts into a USD long position as of last Tuesday. It suggests that the market is continuing to bet that whether in a risk off environment or a risk on environment the USD has more chances to rise vs mature economies such as those of the UK, EU or Japan. This is in line with another attempt at a break higher in US Treasury 10 year yields.

The divergence…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 11:31am — No Comments

Deutsche Bank - Calling for a strong dollar against the majors by the end of the year; Sell SGD

Deutsche Bank - "The DB FX strategy team is calling for a strong dollar against the majors by the end of the year (1.20 for EUR/USD, 1.41 for GBP/USD and 100 for USD/JPY). We believe most currencies have peaked against the dollar and superior US growth will lead to a “great rotation” from bonds to equities that will be dollar positive. Moreover, G10 rate differentials and implied volatility have collapsed, making dollar hedging through both forwards and options comparatively less…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 11:15am — No Comments

UBS - We look for further USDJPY upside and keep our year-end forecast at 100

UBS - "A second wave of USDJPY buying is due. Japanese real money is still waiting in the wings and the life insurance industry in particular still has yen to sell.

Lifers maintain FX hedges worth about US$340 bn but one-by-one the incentives to trim these are falling into place. Admittedly, hedging costs are still very low. But yield spreads are rising, lifer risk tolerance has improved, and the yen has embarked on what we believe is a long-term downtrend.

Scope: A return to…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments

Westpac - FX Strategy Views: The near term outlook for USD/Asia is likely to biased to the topside

Westpac - "FX: Strategy Views

  • AUD/USD: The substantial reduction in rate cut pricing for RBA easing has helped the Aussie avoid a break of 1.0100. However, with GDP distinctly sub-trend and key commodities trending lower, there is a limit to how far this repricing will proceed. 1.0115-1.0380 the range for now.
  • NZD/USD: Near term weakness is expected. The unwinding…
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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 10:55am — No Comments

NAB - Our sell recommendation on AUD/USD at 1.0330 remains in place

National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas: The USD could extend its gains in the post NFP report mood, leading to a 1.2750-1.3310 EUR/USD range. Trade this.

Our sell recommendation on AUD/USD at 1.0330 remains in place but it may take some significant upside surprises in the coming week’s business and consumer confidence surveys or Thursday’s employment report to offer us the entry level.

We remain committed AUD/NZD bears over the medium term. Though our short established at…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 11, 2013 at 10:40am — No Comments

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