Francesc Riverola's Blog (2,724)

TD Securities - We are constructive EUR/USD near-term, move so above 1.30 and outright bullish technically above 1.3137

TD Securities - "We have been anticipating a test of the 1.28/1.29 area since the loss of support in the mid 1.32s. With that move complete, the next issue is will there be much of a bounce in EUR/USD from here? We think the chances of a rally are decent. The 200-day has held (weekly breaks are more reliable guides for breaks of this benchmark) and the market is trying to close the gap at 1.2990/00 left open by Monday’s lurch lower. Resistance at 1.30 is reinforced by (revised) channel…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 12:18pm — No Comments

3 New FX Trade Recommendations From Danske Bank

Danske Bank - "Trade recommendation #1: Sell CHF/NOK spot @ 6.1700

We recommend to sell CHF/NOK spot @ 6.1700 for an 5.92 objective with stop at 6.29. The position yields an indicative annual carry of 1.4%.

Trade recommendation #2: Sell 3M GBP/CAD 1.5000/1.5640 call spread

We recommend to express the ‘Carney trade’ via a bearish 3M GBP/CAD call spread. We recommend to sell 1.5000 call and buy 1.5640 call, as we do not think the downside in the cross is massive from current…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 11:48am — No Comments

BNZ - NZD/USD & NZD/AUD: Buy a Dip

Bank of New Zealand - "NZD/USD

Outlook: Buy a dip

ST Resistance: 0.8400 (ahead of 0.8505)

ST Support: 0.8325 (ahead of 0.8305)

Negative momentum has run out of steam and the daily close above the 200d.ma. was a bullish signal. Weak resistance will be encountered at 0.8400.

NZD/AUD

Outlook: Buy a dip

ST Resistance: Buy a dip 0.8010 (ahead of 0.8060)

ST Support: 0.7915 (ahead of 0.7880)

The emphatic rejection of 0.7900…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 11:14am — No Comments

BBH - Drivers for the Week Ahead

Brown Brothers Harriman - "1. The focus remains squarely on Cyprus

2. The deal with Cyprus appears to avoid the worst of the potential contagions

3. Reports indicate that it may be several weeks for the Cyprus plan to be formally approved and the country may not get its first aid tranche until early May.

4. Lastly, Russia is unlikely to be pleased.

5. Technically, the US dollar looks vulnerable.

6. We do not place much significance on the pre-weekend decision by…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:59am — No Comments

Rabobank - We continue to expect the AUD/USD1.03 to 1.05 area to contain most activity this year; The March low awaits around USD/CAD1.0181

Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments

NAB - EUR, AUD & JPY Key Ideas and Targets

National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas: While EUR should gain further support on a Cyprus resolution, a return to USD1.3150 and 1.3310 will require much better economic and political news across continental Europe.

We cut our AUD/USD short from 1.0330 for a 1.1% loss having squared our NZD/USD long at break-even. We are firm believers that the NZ economy is building up a head of steam, drought notwithstanding, and come back for more with an AUD/NZD short @1.2525.

We’ve used the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:12am — No Comments

BTMU - Cyprus Uncertainty Easing May Result in EURUSD Drifting Higher To 1.3200

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The Cyprus agreement should help to support the euro in the near-term helping to prevent a more sustained EUR/USD break below the 1.3000-level. According to our short-term valuation model uncertainty in Cyprus has resulted in EUR/USD becoming modestly undervalued in the near-term. An easing of that uncertainty in the coming months may result in the pair drifting higher towards our three month forecast of 1.3200. The latest IMM report confirmed that recent…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD The latest strength does not change the bearish picture

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The latest strength does not change the bearish picture and there is a strong resistance at 1.3107. Support is at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662.
USDJPY BULLISH There is a strong support at 93.57/11. While these hold, there is scope for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 96.71 ahead of 97.79.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5321 ahead of 1.5424 - which should hold any upside. Support is at 1.5166 ahead of 1.5027."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:49am — No Comments

BBH - US Dollar Poised to Correct Lower

Brown Brothers Harriman - "With a relatively light event and data schedule, and a reasonable chance of some closure on Cyprus that removes it from the headlines, in the week ahead, we think the US dollar is poised to correct lower. Many investors use the Dollar Index as a rough and ready proxy for the US dollar in general, even though it is heavily weighted toward Europe and does not include two of the top four trading US partners (China and Mexico).

The Dollar Index actually peaked on…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Sell into euro relief rallies if Cyprus secures its bail-out

A must read...

Francesc



UBS - "Late on Friday, Cypriot parliamentarians passed nine bills on capital controls and winding down insolvent banks. That helped push the euro back to 1.30 against the dollar as financial markets anticipate Cyprus striking a deal with the European Union and the IMF to recapitalise its banks and avert Monday's European Central Bank deadline to cut off emergency liquidity assistance.

Any further relief rallies in the euro though are likely to be… Continue

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments

Societe Generale. G10 Forex Short Term View

Societé Generale - You know guys that I am not a trader, but I find this a must read... correct me if I am wrong.

Francesc…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments

RBS - Our strongest currency view globally is to buy/own US dollars

Royal Bank of Scotland - "Our strongest currency view globally is to buy/own US dollars. Enthusiasm for long dollars partly reflects relative US cyclical optimism. The US has come further in terms of household deleveraging and is further down the track (compared with Europe in particular) towards growth recovery.

Still, with the US debt sequester ongoing and economists busy salami slicing growth expectations again, we are reluctant to overdo the cyclical optimism story. More realistic is…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:35pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - We fear another Euro Area shock wave this spring

Societé Generale - "A deal can still be made on Cyprus, and that would lead to a relief risk rally. We’d use that to sell the euro, as we see a worrying deterioration in the EU political environment, causing ongoing economic under performance.

(...) We fear another euro area (EA) shock wave this spring, but it will be smaller than last year’s. And the global economy is better equipped to fight it. With monetary policy differentiation increasingly patent, the traditional high-beta G10…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:11pm — No Comments

Danske Bank - Buy EURJPY

Danske Bank - "EUR/JPY - pressure to increase on 126.03-127.71 for 132.04 next

Strategy summary - buy for gains to 132.04 next. Suggest placing a stop under either 118.74 or 116.47.

Resistance

134.54 4 December 2009 high

132.04 50% retrace of the negative August 2008 to July 2012 cycle

130.94 18 January 2010 high

127.95 29 March 2010 high/2013 high– 6 February 127.71

126.03 12 March 2013

Support

120.36 1 March 2013 low

118.74 25…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 2:23pm — 1 Comment

Glory to Haitham653 and Andrew Lewis!, our Forex Oracle of the Week

Hi guys..... 84 traders participated in our first casual contest "The Forex Oracle of The Week"...

Become our Forex Oracle of the Week and Let's Have Some Fun. Place Your Bets Here!

Price…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 11:44am — 7 Comments

TD Securities - Trade Recomendations: Buy EUR/USD, Sell CAD/JPY

TD Securities - "Trade Recommendations:

Buy EUR/USD at 1.2910 Target of 1.3350; Stop of 1.2810

Cyprus has weighed on the EUR this week but, assuming a deal is reached allowing a bail out to proceed, we think risk/reward favours long positions versus the USD at current levels.

Sell CAD/JPY at 91.90 (stop entry) Target of 86; Stop of 93.90

Without many potential positive catalysts for the CAD, its rebound should not run much deeper. The JPY,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 8:58am — 1 Comment

UBS - Tracking The Big Dollar Turn

UBS - "This year the dollar is leading the other major currencies. But on a broad trade-weighted basis, including emerging market and commodity currencies, the greenback remains close to its all-time lows.

Dollar bulls - looking for a multi-year greenback rally like those of 1978-1985 and 1995-2002 - are anticipating the Federal Reserve will start scaling back its quantitative easing this year. That appears the most likely trigger for a broader dollar recovery in 2013.

But for a big…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments

And the Forex Person of the Year 2012 is… Andrey Pavlov and Ilya Holeu for cTrader

And the Forex Person of the Year 2012 is… Andrey Pavlov and Ilya Holeu for cTrader

After long conversations to choose a name among the finalists for  the Forex Person of the Year 2012 title, we finally got the name… well, we should say the names:

Andrey Pavlov and…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 7:30pm — 1 Comment

Deutsche Bank - Dollar to Benefit Yet From a Turn in FDI

Deutsche Bank - "The theme of US and Swiss outflows and Eurozone, UK and Australian inflows continues. The US has seen USD -34bn outflows over the last three months, suggesting that the dollar has yet to benefit from a turn in FDI. Outflows out of Switzerland reached 9bn over the same period.

The UK’s inflows continue, but excluding the one off takeover of Virgin Media by Liberty global in January, they have slowed from last year. Eurozone inflows have reached nearly USD 15bn over the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 6:34pm — No Comments

BBH - EURUSD Risk is on the downside, where our next target is in the $1.2680-$1.27009 area

BBH - "Although our medium term outlook is for a weaker euro ($1.20 for year end), we suspect that once there is closure on Cyprus, one way or the other, the euro may bounce.  We continue to place technical significance in the gap on the bar charts created by Monday's sharply lower opening,  The gap now  extends from  last Friday's low of $1.30 to yesterday's high near $1.2980.  A move above the gap would be constructive and suggest another 1-2 cent advance.  Until that gap is closed though,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 3:50pm — No Comments

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