Francesc Riverola's Blog (2,729)

RBS - We continue to favour more downside in the EUR

Royal Bank of Scotland - "Cyprus has further delayed the reopening of its banks until Thursday and is planning capital controls, anticipating capital flight. It has further reduced the daily limit on ATM withdrawals to EUR100. The Cyprus economy is likely to rapidly deteriorate and require a further bailout at some point. Eyes should be opening to see the declining appetite across Europe for bailouts.

Banks across Europe will fear recent events in Cyprus and further retrench their…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments

UBS - AUDUSD Bullish, setbacks will be limited; USDCAD Bullish, scope for resumption of upside

UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH The pair bounced sharply yesterday after testing important support at 0.9359. While this holds on closing basis, there is scope for a move higher to 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing north, setbacks will be limited. There is no major resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0333.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 1.0181 holds, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 1.0285 ahead of 1.0342."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments

Leaprate: Cyprus final bailout agreement is worse for the FX brokers

Cyprus final bailout agreement is worse for the FX brokers by Gerald Segal at Leaprate

Unlike the original proposal, uninsured depositors will likely lose around 40% (not 10%) at Cyprus' two largest banks.

Cyprus flag The new (and seemingly final) Cyprus bailout agreed to Sunday night by senior Cyprus government…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 9:02am — No Comments

Forex Oracle of the Week Contest - Do You Know Friday's London Open Time For Cable? Place Your Bets Here!

Hi guys... time to have some fun again! :)

Let's see who is going to be this week's "Forex Oracle", this case in GBPUSD also known as Cable.

Attention to a new rule: In case of a tide of traders winning, there will not be multiple winners anymore. The trader that makes the call first wins... So we will apply here the famous FIFO principle, first in first out or what it is the same, first calling for a price wins in case of…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 3:30pm — 55 Comments

HSBC - GBP: Policymakers deploy parachute

HSBC - "GBP weakness is likely to persist, but policymakers are already working to ensure that the fall lower in GBP does not turn into a nasty dive. Rhetoric from the Bank of England regarding currency weakness has recently shifted.

The policy parachute has been deployed to slow GBP’s descent. The earlier emphasis on the potential boost to net exports is increasingly being overshadowed by warnings against excessive GBP weakness. The adverse repercussions for real spending power likely lie… Continue

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 2:59pm — No Comments

TD Securities - We are constructive EUR/USD near-term, move so above 1.30 and outright bullish technically above 1.3137

TD Securities - "We have been anticipating a test of the 1.28/1.29 area since the loss of support in the mid 1.32s. With that move complete, the next issue is will there be much of a bounce in EUR/USD from here? We think the chances of a rally are decent. The 200-day has held (weekly breaks are more reliable guides for breaks of this benchmark) and the market is trying to close the gap at 1.2990/00 left open by Monday’s lurch lower. Resistance at 1.30 is reinforced by (revised) channel…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 12:18pm — No Comments

3 New FX Trade Recommendations From Danske Bank

Danske Bank - "Trade recommendation #1: Sell CHF/NOK spot @ 6.1700

We recommend to sell CHF/NOK spot @ 6.1700 for an 5.92 objective with stop at 6.29. The position yields an indicative annual carry of 1.4%.

Trade recommendation #2: Sell 3M GBP/CAD 1.5000/1.5640 call spread

We recommend to express the ‘Carney trade’ via a bearish 3M GBP/CAD call spread. We recommend to sell 1.5000 call and buy 1.5640 call, as we do not think the downside in the cross is massive from current…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 11:48am — No Comments

BNZ - NZD/USD & NZD/AUD: Buy a Dip

Bank of New Zealand - "NZD/USD

Outlook: Buy a dip

ST Resistance: 0.8400 (ahead of 0.8505)

ST Support: 0.8325 (ahead of 0.8305)

Negative momentum has run out of steam and the daily close above the 200d.ma. was a bullish signal. Weak resistance will be encountered at 0.8400.

NZD/AUD

Outlook: Buy a dip

ST Resistance: Buy a dip 0.8010 (ahead of 0.8060)

ST Support: 0.7915 (ahead of 0.7880)

The emphatic rejection of 0.7900…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 11:14am — No Comments

BBH - Drivers for the Week Ahead

Brown Brothers Harriman - "1. The focus remains squarely on Cyprus

2. The deal with Cyprus appears to avoid the worst of the potential contagions

3. Reports indicate that it may be several weeks for the Cyprus plan to be formally approved and the country may not get its first aid tranche until early May.

4. Lastly, Russia is unlikely to be pleased.

5. Technically, the US dollar looks vulnerable.

6. We do not place much significance on the pre-weekend decision by…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:59am — No Comments

Rabobank - We continue to expect the AUD/USD1.03 to 1.05 area to contain most activity this year; The March low awaits around USD/CAD1.0181

Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments

NAB - EUR, AUD & JPY Key Ideas and Targets

National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas: While EUR should gain further support on a Cyprus resolution, a return to USD1.3150 and 1.3310 will require much better economic and political news across continental Europe.

We cut our AUD/USD short from 1.0330 for a 1.1% loss having squared our NZD/USD long at break-even. We are firm believers that the NZ economy is building up a head of steam, drought notwithstanding, and come back for more with an AUD/NZD short @1.2525.

We’ve used the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:12am — No Comments

BTMU - Cyprus Uncertainty Easing May Result in EURUSD Drifting Higher To 1.3200

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The Cyprus agreement should help to support the euro in the near-term helping to prevent a more sustained EUR/USD break below the 1.3000-level. According to our short-term valuation model uncertainty in Cyprus has resulted in EUR/USD becoming modestly undervalued in the near-term. An easing of that uncertainty in the coming months may result in the pair drifting higher towards our three month forecast of 1.3200. The latest IMM report confirmed that recent…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:00am — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD The latest strength does not change the bearish picture

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The latest strength does not change the bearish picture and there is a strong resistance at 1.3107. Support is at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662.
USDJPY BULLISH There is a strong support at 93.57/11. While these hold, there is scope for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 96.71 ahead of 97.79.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5321 ahead of 1.5424 - which should hold any upside. Support is at 1.5166 ahead of 1.5027."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:49am — No Comments

BBH - US Dollar Poised to Correct Lower

Brown Brothers Harriman - "With a relatively light event and data schedule, and a reasonable chance of some closure on Cyprus that removes it from the headlines, in the week ahead, we think the US dollar is poised to correct lower. Many investors use the Dollar Index as a rough and ready proxy for the US dollar in general, even though it is heavily weighted toward Europe and does not include two of the top four trading US partners (China and Mexico).

The Dollar Index actually peaked on…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Sell into euro relief rallies if Cyprus secures its bail-out

A must read...

Francesc



UBS - "Late on Friday, Cypriot parliamentarians passed nine bills on capital controls and winding down insolvent banks. That helped push the euro back to 1.30 against the dollar as financial markets anticipate Cyprus striking a deal with the European Union and the IMF to recapitalise its banks and avert Monday's European Central Bank deadline to cut off emergency liquidity assistance.

Any further relief rallies in the euro though are likely to be… Continue

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments

Societe Generale. G10 Forex Short Term View

Societé Generale - You know guys that I am not a trader, but I find this a must read... correct me if I am wrong.

Francesc…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments

RBS - Our strongest currency view globally is to buy/own US dollars

Royal Bank of Scotland - "Our strongest currency view globally is to buy/own US dollars. Enthusiasm for long dollars partly reflects relative US cyclical optimism. The US has come further in terms of household deleveraging and is further down the track (compared with Europe in particular) towards growth recovery.

Still, with the US debt sequester ongoing and economists busy salami slicing growth expectations again, we are reluctant to overdo the cyclical optimism story. More realistic is…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:35pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - We fear another Euro Area shock wave this spring

Societé Generale - "A deal can still be made on Cyprus, and that would lead to a relief risk rally. We’d use that to sell the euro, as we see a worrying deterioration in the EU political environment, causing ongoing economic under performance.

(...) We fear another euro area (EA) shock wave this spring, but it will be smaller than last year’s. And the global economy is better equipped to fight it. With monetary policy differentiation increasingly patent, the traditional high-beta G10…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:11pm — No Comments

Danske Bank - Buy EURJPY

Danske Bank - "EUR/JPY - pressure to increase on 126.03-127.71 for 132.04 next

Strategy summary - buy for gains to 132.04 next. Suggest placing a stop under either 118.74 or 116.47.

Resistance

134.54 4 December 2009 high

132.04 50% retrace of the negative August 2008 to July 2012 cycle

130.94 18 January 2010 high

127.95 29 March 2010 high/2013 high– 6 February 127.71

126.03 12 March 2013

Support

120.36 1 March 2013 low

118.74 25…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 2:23pm — 1 Comment

Glory to Haitham653 and Andrew Lewis!, our Forex Oracle of the Week

Hi guys..... 84 traders participated in our first casual contest "The Forex Oracle of The Week"...

Become our Forex Oracle of the Week and Let's Have Some Fun. Place Your Bets Here!

Price…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 11:44am — 7 Comments

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