UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The latest strength does not change the bearish picture and there is a strong resistance at 1.3107. Support is at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662.
USDJPY BULLISH There is a strong support at 93.57/11. While these hold, there is scope for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 96.71 ahead of 97.79.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5321 ahead of 1.5424 - which should hold any upside. Support is at 1.5166 ahead of 1.5027."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:49am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "With a relatively light event and data schedule, and a reasonable chance of some closure on Cyprus that removes it from the headlines, in the week ahead, we think the US dollar is poised to correct lower. Many investors use the Dollar Index as a rough and ready proxy for the US dollar in general, even though it is heavily weighted toward Europe and does not include two of the top four trading US partners (China and Mexico).
The Dollar Index actually peaked on…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments
Societé Generale - You know guys that I am not a trader, but I find this a must read... correct me if I am wrong.
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 23, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Our strongest currency view globally is to buy/own US dollars. Enthusiasm for long dollars partly reflects relative US cyclical optimism. The US has come further in terms of household deleveraging and is further down the track (compared with Europe in particular) towards growth recovery.
Still, with the US debt sequester ongoing and economists busy salami slicing growth expectations again, we are reluctant to overdo the cyclical optimism story. More realistic is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:35pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "A deal can still be made on Cyprus, and that would lead to a relief risk rally. We’d use that to sell the euro, as we see a worrying deterioration in the EU political environment, causing ongoing economic under performance.
(...) We fear another euro area (EA) shock wave this spring, but it will be smaller than last year’s. And the global economy is better equipped to fight it. With monetary policy differentiation increasingly patent, the traditional high-beta G10…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 3:11pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "EUR/JPY - pressure to increase on 126.03-127.71 for 132.04 next
Strategy summary - buy for gains to 132.04 next. Suggest placing a stop under either 118.74 or 116.47.
134.54 4 December 2009 high
132.04 50% retrace of the negative August 2008 to July 2012 cycle
130.94 18 January 2010 high
127.95 29 March 2010 high/2013 high– 6 February 127.71
126.03 12 March 2013
120.36 1 March 2013 low
TD Securities - "Trade Recommendations:
Buy EUR/USD at 1.2910 Target of 1.3350; Stop of 1.2810
Cyprus has weighed on the EUR this week but, assuming a deal is reached allowing a bail out to proceed, we think risk/reward favours long positions versus the USD at current levels.
Sell CAD/JPY at 91.90 (stop entry) Target of 86; Stop of 93.90
Without many potential positive catalysts for the CAD, its rebound should not run much deeper. The JPY,…
UBS - "This year the dollar is leading the other major currencies. But on a broad trade-weighted basis, including emerging market and commodity currencies, the greenback remains close to its all-time lows.
Dollar bulls - looking for a multi-year greenback rally like those of 1978-1985 and 1995-2002 - are anticipating the Federal Reserve will start scaling back its quantitative easing this year. That appears the most likely trigger for a broader dollar recovery in 2013.
But for a big…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 22, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
After long conversations to choose a name among the finalists for the Forex Person of the Year 2012 title, we finally got the name… well, we should say the names:
Andrey Pavlov and…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "The theme of US and Swiss outflows and Eurozone, UK and Australian inflows continues. The US has seen USD -34bn outflows over the last three months, suggesting that the dollar has yet to benefit from a turn in FDI. Outflows out of Switzerland reached 9bn over the same period.
The UK’s inflows continue, but excluding the one off takeover of Virgin Media by Liberty global in January, they have slowed from last year. Eurozone inflows have reached nearly USD 15bn over the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 6:34pm — No Comments
BBH - "Although our medium term outlook is for a weaker euro ($1.20 for year end), we suspect that once there is closure on Cyprus, one way or the other, the euro may bounce. We continue to place technical significance in the gap on the bar charts created by Monday's sharply lower opening, The gap now extends from last Friday's low of $1.30 to yesterday's high near $1.2980. A move above the gap would be constructive and suggest another 1-2 cent advance. Until that gap is closed though,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 3:50pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has rebounded modestly over the past week with GBP/USD rising from an intra-day low of 1.4832, and EUR/GBP declining from an intra-day high of 0.8794 both recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent rebound follows heavy selling during early 2013 which has resulted in the BoE’s nominal trade-weighted pound index declining by just over 5.0% reaching its lowest level since the middle of 2011.
The pound has found support in the near-term from both a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 3:26pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The BoE’s remit has been changed. However, the move was not as aggressive as it could have been insofar as the 2% inflation target remains the central focus of policy. The news that the BoE will have to include forward guidance with respect to its expectations with respect to policy has the fingerprints of soon-to-be Governor Carney all over it. This is reassuring in the sense that it reasserts the independence of the BoE over a government which is desperate to stimulate growth.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:20pm — No Comments
Westpac - "We have sold AUD/NZD at 1.2560, targeting 1.2300 with a trailing stop-loss initially at 1.2690. We will also sell another unit at 1.2590 if that’s reached.
Our main rationale is fundamental. We expect the RBNZ to start tightening around year end while the RBA appears to be on hold pending further economic information, further easing a possibility.
(...) Further, relative commodity prices have moved significantly in the NZD’s favour recently, with the supply-induced boost…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2305 ahead of 1.2398. Support is at 1.2167 ahead of 1.2120.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8445 - a closing break below this would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 0.8615 ahead of 0.8684.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term support is at 121.15, a break below would expose 118.73. Resistance is at 126.04 ahead of 127.71."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 21, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Downside in EURUSD is rising. 1.28 and then 1.26 would be what our models would see as attractors. We continue to sell EURGBP topside to finance it. Downside protection in USDJPY continues to make sense. Our USDCAD short still hasn't kicked in waiting for bad news at the 1.0450 level.
Case for ECB easing is rising rapidly. The problem with recession in Europe when savings have been balkanized is that those most in need of lower rates suffer the most. They pay an even…
ANZ - "• UK budget at best neutral for GBP, but focus on monetary activism implies further, near-term easing in monetary policy.
• Sub-trend economic activity and an absence of wage inflation (real wages are actually falling), suggest that any inflation feedback from the exchange rate will prove temporary. With inflation expectations broadly stable, sterling's weakness should not be an obstacle to further easing.
• The pound has benefitted from the crisis in Europe and a shake out of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 6:02pm — No Comments
Our friend and colleague Rob Booker is going to travel across the USA in April 2013, to talk to traders about trading for a living.
On April 1, Rob is going to start a drive across the USA and try to live from the profits on a $10,000 trading account. During the trip he is going to meet and interview many traders. He will be podcasting and doing…Continue