UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH Initial resistance is at 0.9463, a break above would open 0.9513, and a closing breach above this would be the next bullish development. Support is at 0.9352.
AUDUSD BEARISH The latest strength appears to be limited, with strong resistance at 1.0300 which should hold. The important support is at 1.0103 ahead of 0.9980.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 1.0211 holds, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 1.0310 ahead of 1.0366."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 5, 2013 at 10:11am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "I see the odds of a cut by the ECB on Thursday as not insignificant, and are prepared to say go short EUR ahead of the meeting since few if anyone expect a cut. The EUR should weaken in any case if they do not cut, because it represents a central bank that is taking excessive risks on not easing enough in a region that is experiencing deteriorating political conditions that will dampen business confidence. A decision not to cut, even though not expected, will not…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 5, 2013 at 9:56am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "While we believe that GBP fundamentals have deteriorated further, and this will keep the pressure on GBP/USD, we do expect a kicker from a stronger USD tone from concerns over Italy. This may mean that EUR/GBP falls at the same time as GBP/USD falls. The USD part has led us to lower our assumed profile for GBP/USD. We now see GBP/USD moving into a 1.45-1.55 range, with risks skewed to the downside."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 6:55pm — No Comments
A new feature at FXstreet.com is born... Now it is just an MVP (minimum viable product) in words of the best seller Lean StartUp, but soon it can become something really important for our community of traders
Current Trading Positions: Know how other traders are situated
Soooo many analysts, soooo many trading ideas, soooo…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 3:18pm — No Comments
Michael... well more than Michael his beautiful wife Adi had today their first son!
Adi and the baby…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 2:30pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The JPY has room to extend its latest gains within its broader 4th wave recovery
Given the break below first Fib.-support at 119.41 (minor 38.2 %) in EUR/JPY we see additional downside to 117.25 (38.2 % on higher scale) where the market would offer the perfect risk-reward to bet on a still missing 5th wave advance towards 132.04 (50 %). Similar setups are given in USD/JPY and in various JPY-Crosses where we see good JPY selling opportunities against 89.78 and 88.78/04 (int.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Given our bullish USD view for the rest of the year, we’re turning bearish EUR/USD. Even if Fed QE continues throughout 2013, US 2-year yields will turn up this summer and there’s little additional good news that can be priced into the euro. EUR/USD should lag broad dollar moves however, as the Euro-area’s external accounts look good, suggesting most EUR-crosses are likely to hold up. We’re looking for 1.20 over the course of H2.
(...) For the last three years, the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 11:17am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "I could buy dollars because US growth recovery is (relatively) more robust than elsewhere. Just don't mistake that for a 'US hits escape velocity growth' dollar story. As the debt sequester kicks in, it's more a 'US muddles along, Europe (including UK) does worse', story. (My name is Cliff Fiscal. I can be volatile. As of March 1st I am reality ....)
I will buy dollars because the world is still a fundamentally risky place. That's a world in which the dollar…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 10:56am — No Comments
Danske Bank - "AUD/USD – Corrective structure nearing completion
Strategy summary – Buy at 1.0150 for an objective of 1.0857. Place stop at .9950.
US 2v10 - year yield spread – Minor triple top caps
Strategy summary – Enter into a flattener with scope towards 145, possibly 134. Place a protective stop above 175."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 10:49am — No Comments
BBH - "Euro: The month-long slide is carrying into March. The euro broke below $1.30 for the first time since mid-December. While momentum indicators are getting stretched, there is not divergence. Our next target is near $1.2880, the 50% retracement of the gains scored after ECB's Draghi promised to do whatever it took (within his mandate, broadly interpreted). The 200-day moving average is a bit lower, near $1.2840. A break there signals a move toward $1.2700. On the…Continue
Societé Generale - "The US sequester, softer Chinese non- manufacturing PMI data, and on-going Italian political uncertainty are giving us, again, a somewhat risk averse start to the week. We’re in a slightly strange market where risk aversion rules, but major equity indices are in a bull market all the same, thanks to Fed policy. For all that though, starting the week long USD against GBP, AUD, and a raft of other over-priced European currencies (EUR, CHF, NOK) seems the right strategy.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH A closing break below 1.2998 would be an important bearish development, exposing 1.2877. Resistance is at 1.3162.
USDJPY BULLISH The recent strength reinforces the broader bullish theme and focus is on resistance at 94.77, a break above this would open 97.79. Support is at 92.01.
GBPUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. The support focus is at 1.4949, a break below would expose 1.4687. Resistance is at 1.5104 ahead of 1.5222."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 4, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments
Wells Fargo - "U.S. Outlook:
ISM Non-Manufacturing • Tuesday
Previous: 55.2 Consensus: 55.0
Wells Fargo: 55.1
Trade Balance • Thursday
Previous: -$38.5B Consensus: -$43.0B
Wells Fargo: -$43.0B
Employment • Friday
The January employment report showed that hiring activity finished 2012 on a strong note. Job gains for November and December were revised higher by a net 127,000 jobs to an average of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2013 at 5:44pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2013 at 12:57pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2013 at 12:42pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 2, 2013 at 7:00pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "EUR/JPY has edged back from its recent highs. Yen weakness remained a theme in February though the unit has adopted a more stable footing against both the EUR and the USD. The likelihood that the BoJ will again step up policy accommodation suggests that yen will remain on the defensive in the months ahead. That said, the yen has moved closer to fair value and there is some concerns within Japan about the pace of the recent move in the currency. Consequently there is good reason…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 1, 2013 at 3:39pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "A more prolonged period of political uncertainty (Italy) which could emerge if all parties fail to reach an agreement to form a workable government, resulting in fresh elections being called, poses the main downside risk to our view that EUR/USD will continue to trade for the majority of the time above the 1.30-level over the next three to six months. A potential economic slowdown in the US heading into the second quarter driven by fiscal tightening from the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 1, 2013 at 12:48pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Given challenges in Europe, we would be looking for levels to sell EUR/USD. We are now back at resistances 1.3140/70. It may be worth selling here with stops above 1.3320, the high before its recent slide on the Italian news. Targeting 1.280"…Continue
These survey's findings are quite shocking to me... I know that the probability of crash is still high, but I was not expecting that it was so high!
Societé Generale - "Survey of crash expectations. The probability of a crash is 33% in the next 3 months and 43% in the next 6 months according to a survey with 106 respondents. This is much higher than what is priced into the option market over 3 months, while the equity market is far more fairly…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 1, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments