Francesc Riverola's Blog (2,660)

Rabobank - GBP Enough is enough?

Rabobank - "BoE Governor King may have had a preference for more QE at last month’s policy meeting but his remarks yesterday suggest that he has become unsettled by the extent of sterling’s drop this year and potentially by the accusation that he has specifically tried to weaken the pound. If the MPC do judge that the falls in sterling in recent weeks have been ‘too far too fast’ there is reason to expect that the committee may collectively decide to delay further policy stimulus. This…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 12:21pm — No Comments

Westpac - EM Asia: USD/KRW, USD/SGD & INR/IDR

Westpac - "EM Asia: USD/KRW: Risks to USD/KRW still appear skewed to the upside and while we should see more selling interest emerge in the pair on moves above 1120, it certainly doesn't fell like we have reached a top yet.

USD/SGD: We maintain our bias to buy dips in USD/SGD. Data momentum remains soft and if next week's inflation data is benign, we see scope for easier policy at the April MAS meeting. We would look to…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments

BTMU - USD/JPY will find it difficult to sustain these levels once the BOJ takes its first monetary steps

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "Our view is unchanged – we suspect yen weakness can carry on over the coming weeks into the first meeting, possibly through the second meeting but beyond then we expect the yen to correct stronger. Our three-month USD/JPY forecast is currently 92.00. With little sign of any major shift in risk appetite amongst Japanese households and with Life Insurance Companies more likely to reduce hedging ratios only gradually by buying on dips, we suspect USD/JPY will find it…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 9:24am — No Comments

Societe Generale - Three themes, one king

Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.

Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 9:11am — No Comments

JP Morgan - American energy independence and the dollar

JP Morgan - "The multi-year boom in US oil and gas production has spawned bold forecasts, such as eventual American energy independence and long-term dollar appreciation. The logic is simple and powerful: since America’s energy trade deficit has accounted for 30% to 50% of the country's overall trade deficit over the past decade, becoming a net energy exporter could improve the current account substantially and transform the dollar from a generally counter-cyclical asset like the yen to a…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 8:49am — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD Focus is on the support at 1.2876; USDJPY Scope for further strength in the near-term

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. Focus is on the support at 1.2876, a break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3074 ahead of 1.3134.

USDJPY BULLISH There is scope for further strength in the near-term. A break above 96.71 would open 97.79 and then 99.875. Support is at 95.45 ahead of 94.48.

GBPUSD BEARISH Yesterday's sharp advance does not change the broader bearish picture. Important resistance is at 1.5199. Support is at 1.4912 ahead of…

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 15, 2013 at 8:37am — No Comments

Forex Person of the Year 2012 – Finalists: Tradency, Tradable, cTrader & Conversion Pros/Forex Magnates

For the second year, FXstreet.com will nominate its “Forex Person of the Year”. The idea is to pay tribute to a person, a team of people or a project that has positively contributed to make the Forex world a better place in 2012. The market is huge and full of professionals…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 10:24pm — No Comments

BTMU - Factors behind our longer-term USD bullish view

Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "Our current forecasts in large part show the dollar strength partially reversing over the coming months before a more sustained pronounced period of dollar appreciation takes hold later in the year out to twelve months. The partial reversal of dollar buying is more related to cyclical developments with the payroll tax hike, sequester and rising gasoline prices impacting consumer spending and reducing the current level of enthusiasm for the dollar. However, we…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 4:00pm — No Comments

HSBC - Dollar Bloc: CAD headwinds, AUD going down under & NZD on a slippery slope

HSBC - "Dollar Bloc:

CAD headwinds – Recent developments have proven problematic for the CAD, from a more sluggish economy and slippage in some commodity prices, to yet another downscaling of the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias. Moreover, the less favourable shift in the fundamental backdrop suggests less CAD strength than we previously expected, and we have adjusted our forecasts accordingly.

AUD going down under – The AUD has been…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 3:44pm — No Comments

ING Bank - For EUR/USD - 1H event risks and a 2H Fed QE3 exit supports our 1.20 forecast

ING Bank - "For EUR/USD we retain a negative view, targeting a non-consensus 1.20 by year-end. Political/event risks are an important, negative theme into mid-year, with a market unfriendly election result in Italy prominent. US debt ceiling discussions into a mid-May deadline are also a potential source of higher risk aversion. However, we also look for debate surrounding ECB and Federal Reserve policy to gain traction over coming months. For the ECB, the possibility of an interest rate cut…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 12:43pm — No Comments

Danske Bank - EUR/JPY Buy at 123.97 for 126.03, stop at 123.23; EUR/GBP Long at .8697 for .8842, stop at .8645

Danske Bank - "EUR/JPY BUY AT 123.97 FOR 126.03 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT 123.23 S4 122.45 S3 122.85 S2 123.23 S1 123.80 R1 124.90 R2 125.23 R3 125.78 R4 126.03
EUR/GBP LONG AT .8697 FOR A .8842 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT .8645 S4 .8589 S3 .8621 S2 .8633 S1 .8645 R1.8745 R2 .8793 R3 .8815 R4 .8842
EUR/SEK SHORT AT 8.4590 FOR 8.2100; REVISE STOP AT 8.4090 S4 8.1750 S3 8.1780 S2 8.2020 S1 8.2100 R1 8.3400 R2 8.3625 R3 8.3890 R4 8.4090"

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 12:22pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - Absolute USD or a cocktail of relative values?

Societé Generale - "One has the choice between a brutal long USD position across the board or trading relative values, e.g. NOKSEK, AUDNZD or EURGBP. Weighting the decision between this core portfolio allocation in USD and relative positioning is likely to become tricky.

In a lower level of volatility, we typically see a greater dispersion as currencies can be driven by a different motor (interest rate, fx policy, terms of trades…). We are reaching extremes in some of the crosses.…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 12:11pm — No Comments

UBS - EURUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. Focus is on the support at 1.2876

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. Focus is on the support at 1.2876, a break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3074 ahead of 1.3134.
EURGBP BULLISH The latest setback does not change the bullish picture as long as support at 0.8589 holds. Resistance is at 0.8831, a break above would open 0.9021.
EURJPY BULLISH Initial resistance is at 126.04, a break above would open strong area at 127.71-127.92. Support is at 122.39."

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 14, 2013 at 10:30am — 1 Comment

Real-Time Economic Calendar: More Countries Added

Good news. We at FXstreet.com have added three new countries whose main economic data are covered: Hong Kong, Singapore and Colombia. Hong Kong and Singapore in particular brought increasing traffic to our website and we wanted to offer more to traders from these countries.…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 5:09pm — No Comments

Last Call for New York's FXIC on March 20th 2013

Hi guys

If you were thinking into attending New York's FXIC on March 20th 2013, here you have some last call information for you.

Francesc

................................

Next week on March 20th FXIC 2013 will take place in NYC. Over 300 industry professionals have confirmed their attendance including 60+ buy side hedge funds. Keynote speakers will include Jim Trott, the former Chief Dealer at…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 12:51pm — No Comments

Societe Generale - How Far We Could Run To The Topside in EURGBP Before It Peaks?

Societé Generale - "(...) now UK economic surprises are at almost their most negative level ever suggesting we are closer to a turning point. Surely Carney will do what must be done to ease so that event is yet to happen. The question is how far we could run to the topside in EURGBP before it peaks. From a valuation point of view, we are unsurprisingly getting to extremes as is typical in a regime break. The models then tend to follow and lag spot. More importantly, we moved to the more…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments

BBH - Price Action Today: Consolidative Tone Persists

Brown Brothers Harriman - "Price action: The main characteristic of the global capital markets is one of consolidation. EUR/USD is trading at 1.3015. The two weakest currencies against the dollar, sterling and the yen, are trading firmer today. Sterling, which finished the North American session on a firm note after falling to new 3-year lows, saw follow through short-covering, which lifted it to a three day high of 1.4970. After running out of steam in Asia on Tuesday, profit-taking saw the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 11:01am — No Comments

Rabobank - EUR/USD to trade mostly within a jittery range in the 1.32 to 1.29 region

Rabobank - "While we revised up our USD forecasts modestly on the back of last Friday’s better jobs data, relative to the consensus, we remain cautious on the outlook for the USD going forward. In his recent testimony, Bernanke made it very clear that he was concerned about the impact on growth from fiscal headwinds. He warned that budgetary consolidation that was currently drawn into law in the US could equate to the loss of 750K potential jobs this year. This tone implies that the Fed will…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 10:48am — No Comments

ANZ - We retain our constructive view on Asian currencies

ANZ - "When the US dollar strengthens against major currencies, USD/Asia typically follows suit. However, this correlation has broken down in recent weeks. Despite the broad based strength in the US dollar, as measured by the DXY Index, USD/Asia has stayed relatively steady. Since early February, the DXY has risen by 4.2% but USD/Asia has only seen a marginal 0.1% increase.

In our view, the reason for the correlation breakdown is the positive performance of global equities, reflecting…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 10:41am — No Comments

Danske Bank - GBP/USD Short at 1.4910 For 1.4767, Stop at 1.4970; Gold Spot Buy at 1589.00 For 1619.65, Stop at 1574.00

Danske Bank - "USD/JPY LONG AT 95.65 FOR 96.71 OBJECTIVE, STOP 94.95 S4 94.77 S3 94.95 S2 95.25 S1 95.50 R1 95.69 R2 96.11 R3 96.27 R4 96.71
GBP/USD SHORT AT 1.4910 FOR A 1.4767 OBJECTIVE, STOP AT 1.4970 S4 1.4767 S3 1.4803 S2 1.4822 S1 1.4832 R1 1.4970 R2 1.4985 R3 1.5016 R4 1.5047
Gold Spot BUY AT 1589.00 FOR 1619.65, STOP AT 1574.00 S4 1554.35 S3 1560.80 S2 1574.00 S1 1579.65 R1 1592.70 R2 1614.50 R3 1619.65 R4 1625.80"

Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 10:30am — No Comments

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