Deutsche Bank - "The spike in correlation between G10 FX and equities beginning in 2008 and lasting through the present is unprecedented in the free float era. Next year may finally see the breakdown in this correlation for three reasons.
1. Global yield compression and light positioning has unwound carry trades: FX positioning has been reduced in large part because carry-to-vol ratios were not compelling; currencies such as EUR and CAD were still behaving like risky…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 2:39pm — No Comments
Fidelity - "My overall view is that a world of low growth, accompanied by low interest rates and substantial liquidity, should provide a favourable environment for equity investment. Liquidity is not just a reflection of central bank measures such as QE but is also due to large investor cash balances, which are currently sitting on the sidelines earning very low returns. We have already seen how this has driven up the prices of bonds across…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 12:14pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The prospects for a broader EUR recovery have improved but decisive breaks to confirm are still outstanding. JPY has provided additional strong evidence that a broader and sustainable downtrend has been launched but having reached key-supports in form of preceding lows, a temporary pause is likely before the downtrend resumes. Stay long CAD/JPY, TRY/JPY, USD/NOK, USD/ZAR and EUR/CZK, and short EUR/INR, NZD/CAD, EUR/CAD, EUR/KRW, EUR/MXN and NZD/NOK."
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 11:58am — No Comments
UBS - "GBPUSD BULLISH The pair continues to extend its strength and is currently testing resistance at 1.6217. The next critical resistance is at 1.6309. Support lies at 1.6153.
USDCHF BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. A break below first support at 0.9115 would signal extension of weakness to 0.9041. Resistance is at 0.9240."
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 11:05am — No Comments
Rabobank - "One of the most noticeable features of the FX market this year has been the resilience of AUD/USD. At the start of this quarter the market consensus was in favour of a push lower in AUD/USD to 1.02 by the end of the year. Within the consensus many forecasters were noticeably more bearish on the AUD. Today, the market has edged higher its consensus view modestly but most forecasters are still of the opinion that AUD/USD is trading near its highs and that it will end 2013 below…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 18, 2012 at 11:02am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We see downside risks to GBP/USD. To a large extent this is based on our negative view on future developments in the Euro area that are seen weighing more broadly on European currencies against the USD. Deteriorating long-term UK fundamentals is also seen adding further grist to the mill. At the same time we see a more constructive outlook for the USD given the relatively better cyclical position of the US economy. While in the past this may have led to a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 17, 2012 at 6:32pm — No Comments
Thank you all guys for the great feed-back given regarding my request for help to find a new tagline for our social site…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 17, 2012 at 11:39am — No Comments
BBH - "US Dollar: The greenback's technical tone has deteriorated. The euro and sterling appear to have convincingly broken above significant down trend lines. With the holiday season upon us, there seems to be no compelling technical reason not to look for a continuation of dollar weakness into the end of the year. Few are incentivized to fight the trend. (...)
Euro: (...) The euro broke through two key trend lines. The first is the longer-term trend that goes…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 17, 2012 at 11:00am — No Comments
I hope you enjoy this special offer for our visitors from an old collaborator of the house Mr. Ian Coleman.... Let me know what you think about his webinar and his service.
What to expect for 2013? A gift for all our FXstreet.com listeners
Tue, Dec 18 2012 13:00 CET
Duration: 45 min
Moderator: Vicky Ferrer…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 17, 2012 at 10:54am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the closing break above 1.3150, the risk is now for extension of the strength to 1.3284 and then 1.3491. Support lies at 1.3041.
USDJPY BULLISH This month's rally has cleared 84.18, indicating more upside to 85.00 ahead of critical level at 85.32. Support lies at 83.32."
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 17, 2012 at 10:32am — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "Top Trade recommendations for 2013
No.Trade / Opening Level / Current Level / Target / Potential Return (%) / Stop / Annual volatility
1 Short AUD/NOK 5.90 5.95 5.00 18 6.35 9.1
2 Long risk on CDX HY 506 bp 468 bp 450 bp 5 550 bp 5.7
3 Long Commodity Carry Basket 100.0 98.0 112.0 12 94.0 15.0
4 Long Spanish 5-yr Sovereign Bond 4.29% 4.31% 3.50% 8 5.50% 12.0
5 Long Large Cap US Banks 49.0 49.5 58.0 18 44.0 23.0
6 Long Current…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2012 at 12:37pm — No Comments
UBS - "(...) The Fed's new policies are likely to keep the dollar constrained as the new year starts but will support the currency in 2013 as the US economy keeps recovering. That means the greenback is likely to stay at current levels of 1.30-1.32 against the euro for now but recover back to 1.15-1.20 next year.
(...) In our last comment here for 2012, the key points for currencies are:
- new Fed policies tempering dollar for now, to bolster it later
- ECB watchers should…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2012 at 12:00pm — No Comments
BBH - "We expect the dollar to remain in broad trading ranges against the euro and sterling. The prospects of more aggressive expansion of the Fed’s balance sheet and the protracted fiscal cliff self-created crisis, even as Europe muddles along, could see the dollar begin 2013 in a softer phase. This could see the euro trade toward $1.35 and sterling toward $1.65. We look for the dollar to recover subsequently. We anticipate the US economy will strengthen after Q1 and that the European debt…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 15, 2012 at 1:19pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - BofA Merrill Lynch analysts outlined 10 macro calls on which they are basing their 2013 outlook:
· The global economy grows 3.2 percent, gradually improving through the year, led by China and the U.S.
· Fiscal austerity in the U.S. and Europe offsets monetary stimulus from central banks.
· The U.S. housing recovery builds momentum.
· Flares, not wildfires in Europe.
· China should lead emerging market growth.
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 14, 2012 at 5:00pm — No Comments
hi guys... I have reinstated Vineeth membership as he has promised that he will offer his "amazing" EA to the community for free... told him that if he tries to sell something again he will be quicked out forever... if you see him selling, please report me asap.
A reminder of our Basic Rules:
1. Treat others the way you wish to be treated
2. Do not come to fish traffic to your site; Do not come…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 14, 2012 at 3:41pm — No Comments
Danske Bank - "USD/JPY - Above 84.18 to confirm a multi-month base for gains to 93.35
Summary - Stay long or buy into any short-term dips for gains to 87.47 and 90.00. Further out, 93.35 expected. Place a stop under either 81.63 or key 80.63.
USD/PLN - Risks break of 9M triangle support to expose 3.0040/2.9160
Strategy Summary - Look to sell into near-term corrective strength for an eventual break under triangle support near 3.0835…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 14, 2012 at 3:15pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Sell GBP/USD, targeting 1.5050. stop 1.6640. Spot ref 1.6117
GBP benefited from its “relative” safe haven status from the Euro area stresses in 2012. The rebalancing of the economy has been significantly slower than expected and twin fiscal and current account deficits appear to present significant challenges to that safe haven status over the coming quarters. While the US has its own fiscal problems, current account dynamics are considerably…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 14, 2012 at 3:06pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "USD/JPY – bullish bias – (82.00-85.00)
USD/JPY has just broken above key long-term technical resistance at just below the 83.0-level heading into the Japanese elections on Sunday. The technical break has opened the door for a retest of the intra-day high from the 15th March at 84.18. Yen selling is likely to remain in vogue heading into and initially following the election although scope for further near-term weakness is constrained by…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 14, 2012 at 3:00pm — No Comments
Cast your vote!
Casey Stubbs at http://www.winnersedgetrading.com is selecting what he considers the best FX blog of the year.
On one hand, I am very happy to see Yohay Elam and Chris Capre among the finalists. Also, happy to see Michael Greenberg in the list. We work with all of them! :)
On the other, I am missing many names that should be there for the value they give day after day.... Anyway, it is Casey's criteria so I…Continue