Deutsche Bank - "After a period in the doldrums, FX has spent the last 6 months front and centre, and the relative implied vols for different asset classes bear this out. DB’s CVIX 1m implied FX vol measure as a ratio of 1m implied Bond vol (the MOVE index) is up in the 99th percentile for the last 19 years. The CVIX1m / VIX ratio is in the 93rd percentile.
There is some sense that the Fed is an important part of this vol divergence. The Fed is squashing bond vol notably at both extremes…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 4:08pm — No Comments
Most Viewed Webinars Week of May 13th -19th 2013
#1 Navin Prithyani - Pivot Points Reintroduced
#2 Sam Seiden - …Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 3:47pm — No Comments
M&G Investments - "Knowing how poor the central banks have been at forecasting economic indicators, and having analysed the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:58am — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "we continue expecting the EURUSD at 1.25 by the end of this year. Indeed, the market is now moving in this direction and our projection does not seem as out of the consensus as it seemed earlier this year. We believe that a EUR weakening beyond our projection would require a new shock from the periphery, or the ECB moving aggressively into unconventional policy territory, both of which are unlikely in the short term in our view.
(...) We prefer to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "EUR has been supported by a rapidly improving current account surplus that is now at a Euro-era record. It has been supported by less ECB QE as banks have repaid some LTRO funds. It has been supported by a steady rebound in periphery assets (Spain and Italian 10 year spreads over bunds are around the lows since July 2011, and their outright yields are at lows since July 2010). However, it has been weakened by an ECB rate cut and a preparedness to discuss negative…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 10:11am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.
AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: A large head and shoulders pattern is being carved out. The neckline is seen near the late March and early April lows around $1.2740. Below there is the low from last November near $1.2660, which is just below the $1.2680 retracement objective ($1.2680) of Draghi's OMT induced rally. The measuring objective of the head and shoulders pattern would carry the single currency below $1.20, our year-end target. The euro's 50-day moving average has…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "We expect the Euro outlook in the next few months to be determined by ECB policies and market expectations for their direction compared with FED policies. In turn, we believe that the impact of ECB policies on the Euro will be determined by the balance between monetary policy loosening to address weakness in the core
Eurozone economies and deflation risks on the one hand, and policies to address the continued credit crunch in the periphery on the other.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:11am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "On the road seeing clients is always most enlightening, always the best way to take the market pulse. But the road can be a tricky place from which to develop detailed strategy ideas – too much distance from day-to-day detail.
So just a few bullets on broader, thematic, directional, conviction: In three words, keep buying Dollars.
(...) Yen is still your number (1) funding currency as Japanese foreign bond buying begins in semi earnest and on the critical…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 11:02am — No Comments
I found this nice article...talking about me!!! :)
What an honor ;)
Forex Thought Leaders: Francesc Riverola, Founder and President FXstreet.com
by Paul Milnes
Francesc Riverola is one of the foremost thought leaders in the world of forex trading, being founder and President,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 3:17pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
Our commitment at the FXstreet is to create exceptional opportunities for professional growth so that our members and associates can fulfill their highest potential.
A start-up company TradeSlide with an equal passion for high standards and an appealing vision has approached us. They believe that the best retail traders…
Societé Generale - "Following a small correction in late April, the dollar is rallying with a vengeance. A pause may be due, but recent moves confirm the shape of things to come: dollar gains will be far bigger in H2, as the Fed exit debate heats up. The worst performers in May are mostly G10 currencies, both high beta and low beta.
The AUD sell-off looks overdone. For now the AUD/USD looks like a falling knife; we start with a more cautious long in AUD/NZD. The peripheral debt rally-a…
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s rally from the 1.0014 low last week struggled at the 50% retracement point before the advance resumed and we largely expect a similar pattern of trade as the market stalls around the 76.4% retracement resistance now. A minor consolidation in the market should be followed by renewed gains through the 1.0225 resistance area (intraday pivot as well as retracement resistance). We look for good support intraday to the mid 1.01 area (some risk of a slip back to the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:17pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The pound has outperformed over the last two months with the trade-weighted index increasing by 3.0% from its recent low point recorded on the 12th March. The pound’s recent outperformance followed a period of heavy selling in early 2013 when the trade-weighted index declined by close to 7.0%. Despite the recent corrective rebound, the trade-weighted pound still remains around 3.9% lower than at the end of last year. The pound’s recent upward momentum now appears…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:13pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "United States Outlook: We expect below-trend annual growth of 2.0% in 2013 followed by an acceleration to 2.9% in 2014. Growth should then remain slightly above that rate in 2015 and 2016. On an annualised sequential basis, we expect a slowdown to 1.8% and 2% in 2013Q2/Q3, before a pick-up to 2.5% in the last quarter of the year. Looking into 2014 and beyond, we expect above-trend growth at around 3%- 3.5%.
Key Issues: Our forecast for near-term weakness but long-term…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 4:12pm — No Comments
Two thumbs up for FXstreet.com team! and specially for Gus Farrow the leader of the project along the Greenwich Business School in London.... It is a new step towards quality and to quest for quality is a MUST here :)
Way to go guys!
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers and Harriman - "The dramatic sell-off of the Australian dollar is the latest of a series of price developments that have surprised the market. (...) The Australian dollar was the market's darling. It was an accessible even if not perfect way to get exposure to China and its vociferous demand for commodities. It was one of the few triple-A rated countries left standing after the financial crisis. Its interest rates were relatively higher in an environment in which there was a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments