"Still looking for the opportunity to be long USD/JPY
Our strategy is to look for a buying opportunity in USD/JPY. In the current environment, it may mean waiting for 100, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the previous low in October last year before it rallied to its peak above 105 around the turn into this year. However, we would be watching closely to see if it looks to be holding the low this year in Feb near 100.75.…
Added by Daologic on May 21, 2014 at 5:02am — No Comments
In addition to BoJ decisions there are a couple of other factors which could prove to be crucial in determining the path of USD/JPY through the remainder of the year and beyond. The first is geo-political risk. There is currently a risk that investors are treating the crisis in Ukraine with too much complacency. Further deteriorating in the region could lead to safe haven demand for the yen. Also,…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 19, 2014 at 10:43am — No Comments
"1. Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies
The dollar is primed for a major rally following this month's Federal Open Market Committee meeting. The FOMC met expectations by cutting the Fed's pace of asset purchases by another $10bn to $55bn a month. But policymakers surprised on several other counts.
First, the FOMC dropped its forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to specific levels of unemployment. The guidance had become increasingly irrelevant as…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments
USDJPY rallied firmly from the 101.20 area this week but the rebound stalled right on “cloud” chart resistance. Technically, the gains look potentially bullish on the daily and weekly chart but, in both cases, these developments constitute the barest minimum in terms of bullish price signals that we could…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 7:03am — No Comments
USDCAD price action is unequivocally bullish across a range of time frames. While the hourly chart does suggest some potential for an intraday stall in rally seen over the past 24 hours, the overall impression from the short, medium and long-term charts is very constructive for the USD…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 21, 2014 at 3:47am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | While the air above is thinning, we hold to our long EUR/USD tactical view. GBP/USD has more upside and this may pressure EUR/GBP lower. European currencies remain favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. Stay with long GBP/JPY as the BoE falls further behind in the Race Not to Tighten First. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads.…Continue
"USDJPY looked in good technical shape through the end of last week but the bind tone has quickly vanished. Losses this week have dumped the USD back below “cloud” chart support, with the confirming cross lower in the “tankan” span indicating a bias towards more weakness from here. The USD is just about holding on…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:17am — No Comments
"The break below 101.90 broke the last (short-term) vestiges of a positive USD/JPY profile and highlighted the counter likelihood that a corrective rebound off 100.75 completed on the test of 103.75. USD/JPY, as shown in Figure 3, is now approaching rising (flag?) support at 101.40. A break of this level could trigger a swift test of 100.00 if not a measured move to 99.00-10.
A swift rebound back above 102.50 is needed to negate the current downside bias, though, as with EUR/JPY, a break…
Added by Daologic on March 15, 2014 at 7:34am — No Comments
"Sharp moves in New York hours washed out short-term positions and structures which had favoured JPY weakness.
EUR/JPY has not triggered stops (140.10), but was the key protagonist in the moves which triggered stops in USD/JPY (101.90) and GBP/JPY (169.90).
Broader patterns have not turned JPY positive, as yet, but have become mixed or neutral into the end of this week.
Price action next week will be critical in determining directional bias for Q2’14.…
Added by Daologic on March 15, 2014 at 7:28am — No Comments
Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at
1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would
extend the strength to 1.4052.
The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above
this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48
ahead of 101.20.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t change…
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
The short-term USDCAD charts are not telling us much we don’t already know. The USD remains capped below short-term resistance in the low 1.11 area and, after a firmer start to the North American session, USDCAD has slipped modestly back towards support in the upper 1.10 zone. We see limited downside for the market…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:03am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at 1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would extend the strength to 1.4052.
The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48 ahead of 101.20.
As bullish conditions persist, there’s…
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:56am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:37am — No Comments
"Japan has reported some disappointing data, but the BOJ is unlikely to move when its 2-day meeting concludes on Tuesday. Surveys suggest the expectations for additional easing have been pushed from Q2 into Q3. This will allow officials time to assess the impact of the retail sales tax increase and the ongoing efforts to bolster inflation. …Continue
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
USDCAD gains early Friday saw a little more follow through interest subsequently though gains have stalled in the early part of Monday’s trading session—right around short-term trend resistance at 1.1126. Trend momentum has picked up a little more positively again on the 6-hour chart and we look for firm support…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 7:22am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | We see further upside for EUR/USD and GBP/USD. European currencies are favoured over Asia FX as investors chase risk-adjusted carry returns in a vol crushed world. We believe GBP/JPY has upside on the 'winners and losers in the Race Not to Tighten First' theme. USD/CAD to trade lower initially as spot catches up with rate spreads. However, the medium-term outlook is still one of likely appreciation on ultimately…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 10, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
"IMM positioning in the major currencies was little changed in the week overall for the most part. The biggest and most obvious shift was in EUR positioning, with CTAs and speculative investors boosting net long EUR positioning ahead of the ECB meeting from the net long of +13.9k contracts in the week through February 25th to a net long of +23.4k contracts this week. That helped the implied aggregate long USD position held by the market slide to USD 11.2bn, the lowest since early…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 10, 2014 at 6:26am — No Comments