The USD/JPY is the key to the boom and doom of the global economy, this carry trade determines each point to which a global economic crisis is likely to take place.
If you watch the USD/JPY carefully from 1985, you will notice lower highs forming. With each peak of the high is the date where the recession had already taken place, where as if you measure the peaks for each lower high you could precisely predict when the next recession would have taken place, and following the…Continue
I think that the yen will rise to 107.00 area based on the weekly chart and will represent the fifth wave since the yen rise from 76.00 area.
what about you?
"The euro and the 'old' yen (pre-Governor Kuroda) are becoming more alike, and today's dataflow could invite even closer comparisons between the two.
Japan's economy was traditionally characterised by a current account surplus and the presence of weak, or even absent, inflation. Now, the Eurozone also boasts a comfortable current account surplus.
Disinflationary pressures are asserting themselves inside the Eurozone as well -- a fact noted in the US Treasury's semi-annual report on…
Added by Daologic on October 31, 2013 at 8:01am — No Comments
S&P Futures market is moving higher at the moment, now trying to break above 100% Fibonacci level on the intra-day basis and possibly will extend up to 161.8% extension which is a typical target for wave iii) of an impulsive trend from an Elliott Wave perspective. In such case we should look for further gain on stocks futures in impulsive formation. USDJPY is then expected to stay bullish based on latest correlation. This view would change only if S&P would fell back below 1647.…
Added by Gregor Horvat on October 10, 2013 at 1:20pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar is entering a perfect storm that should see the currency rallying this year to 1.20, 110, 1.41 and 1.03 against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc respectively.
First, June's payrolls shows the Federal Reserve is on track to start tapering its asset purchases from the September 17-18 Open Market Committee meeting. Second, the European Central Bank in contrast announced an important dovish shift in policy, signalling interest rates would remain at present levels or…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 7, 2013 at 5:52pm — No Comments
These days there is a lot of talk about Japanese equities, bonds and currency.
The below charts are just an intermarket view on the recent developments.
This first is a plot of the Nikkei and the Yen, with chart analytical tools. See how the confirmation of clear on the recent breakout, as compared to a failed attempt in the past.…Continue
Added by Gonçalo Moreira on June 13, 2013 at 11:07am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 7:36pm — No Comments
UBS - "We continue to prefer the dollar amongst the major currencies. Foreign exchange markets are already largely discounting the Fed easing policy further when 'Operation Twist' finishes this month. But they are not reflecting additional easing from the world's other major central banks in 2013. This week's key points for currencies are:
- dollar already pricing in upcoming Fed easing
- euro bulls should heed ECB, Bundesbank downgrades
- USDJPY bulls shouldn't exit after…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 10, 2012 at 3:20pm — No Comments
UBS - "We expect the dollar to be the best-performing major currency next year. UBS expects the US to grow by 2.3% in 2013 while the Eurozone, UK and Japan suffer stagnation or weak growth at best. Financial markets have largely priced in the Federal Reserve's third round of quantitative easing, while the European Central Bank, Bank of England and Bank of Japan are likely to undertake further balance-sheet expansion in 2013. Dollar diversification over the past decade by US fund managers,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 23, 2012 at 8:25am — No Comments
UBS - "This week we discussed our bullish dollar view with forty clients in London, Stockholm and Paris. We found hedge fund managers ready to short the yen but real money managers often unwilling to sell Japan's currency given fears over America's 'fiscal cliff'. That suggests positioning is not extreme despite the yen hitting six months lows against the greenback.
We continue to see the yen falling to 85 over the next three months. We also remain sceptical about the Australian dollar…
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 20, 2012 at 7:20pm — No Comments
Added by Curt Wehrley on November 5, 2012 at 1:53pm — No Comments
FX - EURO
The EURO closed lower on Friday as it consolidated some of last week's rally. The lowrange close sets the stage for a steady to lower opening on Monday. Stochastics and the RSI remain neutral to bullish signalling that sideways to higher prices are possible nearterm. If it extends this…
Added by HY Markets on October 22, 2012 at 7:19am — No Comments
Although price action was mostly muted across the major currency pairs following notable London session moves, some logical trade setups which yielded modest profits did materialize during Monday's New York morning trading session. In this video, I review the analysis I conducted in our New York FX Training Room today which supported the cases for EUR/JPY and…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on October 15, 2012 at 7:30pm — No Comments
The feature currency on the first day of the new trading week was arguably the Japanese yen, which continued its recent retreat against multiple major currencies. The GBP/JPY currency pair rose 110 pips from its New York morning session low, then straddled the 128 level during the final two hours of the European trading day.
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 18, 2012 at 2:00am — No Comments
While sorting through the longer-term charts for the major pairs and reflecting on the 10-14 September FX trading week, the euro's five-day rise of 2.5 percent against the US dollar -- its largest weekly advance against the greenback in 33 weeks -- certainly caught my attention. As I scanned the daily charts for the yen crosses, it quickly became apparent to me that the eye-popping move of the week was the Japanese currency's two percent drop against Europe's single currency on Friday 14…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 16, 2012 at 6:13pm — No Comments
Two conditions historically conducive to weakness in Japan's currency have been building since the start of this month. During the week of 13-17 August, the yen responded.
When government bond yields in developed economies start rising, Japanese investors tend to shift more money overseas. In our New York FX Training Room earlier in the week, I mentioned the recent rise of benchmark yields in the bond markets which had previously benefited from strong inflows on the back of concerns…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on August 20, 2012 at 1:56am — No Comments
The Bank of Japan (BOJ) is scheduled to announce its latest policy decision and release its semi-annual economic outlook report sometime during Friday's Asian trading session.
Japan experienced extreme inflation immediately following World War II due to ballooning government debt fueled by war spending and other expenditures. Over the 30+ years since the country's 1986-91 asset price bubble, Japan has seen a 20-year period of general disinflation (deceleration in rising prices)…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on April 27, 2012 at 2:30am — No Comments
My pick for this week's feature foreign exchange market trade could evolve into a long-term carry trade for currency traders who saw the opportunity, took it, and held it.
Three weeks ago today, I discussed in this post some factors behind the rough start the Japanese yen has had this year, and suggested that "it has…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on April 21, 2012 at 12:07am — No Comments
Europe's common currency established a new multi-year low against the Japanese yen and a new 11-month low against the greenback during today's New York morning session.
Watch a 9-minute video tour of our members-only website…Continue
Added by FX BOOTCAMP on December 28, 2011 at 10:30pm — No Comments