"EURUSD BULLISH The important trendline resistance at 1.3830 held well last Friday to prompt a setback. Only a close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.
USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions…
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:54am — No Comments
Today the fx markets opened with gaps facing down mainly due to the recent events in Ukraine and Russia, where intense situation almost escalated into a war. Almost...but the chance that we could be on the brink of war still remains.
Today I recommend watching the Ukraine news, as those could be the key to fx market changes that could even surpass the findamental economical PMI news from Europe and US.
We sold GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY on Sunday night when the 169.60 and 90.66 levels…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on March 3, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
"CADJPY traded heavily earlier this week but the rebound in the market today (potential bullish outside range day) may stem some of the pressure that has been building on the cross after the market reversed lower from the upper 93 area. The broader range base is still providing some traction for the CAD.…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 5:21am — No Comments
CADJPY continues to chop around the low end of the broader range in place in the past few months. We still rather think early February price action signaled a technical low for the cross (and, therefore, the likelihood of a rebound to mid-range levels around 95). But the CAD can get little traction at the moment and…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 4:14pm — No Comments
"Beware of Breakouts
The technical outlook for the dollar against the major currencies is not clear. Yet, given the key events over the next two weeks, we are suspicious of the market's willingness to sustain breakouts. This seems…
" USDJPY has slipped into neutral. The USD has found steady support around the base of ichimoku “cloud” through February after initially recovering from the 50% retracement support derived from the late 2013 rally. But USD gains gave stalled in the upper 102 range and the track higher in the market since the start…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Risk Appetite Still Questionable
The better undertone to US and global stocks through the latter part of the week has percolated through to the FX market, with USDJPY well…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 21, 2014 at 12:29pm — No Comments
The real yield spread suggests USD/JPY can trade to new long term cyclical highs. Rapid trade balance deterioration further undermines JPY. EM tensions have helped boost JPY, but in light of clear fundamental shifts against the JPY, we see significant upside potential.
Rapid deterioration in JPY fundamentals
We thought the market might be more unsettled by the weak Chinese flash PMI. However, after the initial reaction there was little follow through in Asia and EM…
"Japan’s January trade deficit reached a record JPY2.8 trln yen, higher than expected. Imports rose 25.0% y/y, mainly due to increased energy imports given the troubles with Japan’s nuclear reactors. Exports rose 9.5% y/y, partly driven by motor vehicles. Of note, both imports and exports prices were higher by 15.7% y/y and 9.7%, respectively. So far, it seems as if…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 20, 2014 at 12:25pm — No Comments
The extent of pullbacks from the test of 105.50-60 and the roll over in momentum indicators are bound to raise concern over the risk of more substantial period of consolidation.
However, dips are still considered to be forming relatively contained corrections. The 99.90-101.50 area is now considered to be a…
Added by Daologic on February 20, 2014 at 6:08am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at
1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.
GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments
"Case Builds For Further BoJ Easing
Suddenly it all seems to be going wrong for USDJPY. An interview with GPIF President Mitani in the weekend press suggests that any diversification of the pension fund’s portfolio away from JGBs is likely to proceed very gradually. Elsewhere, media reports claim new language could be inserted into the upcoming G20 communique, to discourage the practice of conducting monetary policy with the intention of affecting
exchange rates. Then finally, adding…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:37am — No Comments
"USD weakness takes USD/JPY into buy zone
In characterizing recent trends in FX, the most obvious is broad-based USD weakness which accelerated last week particularly in many of the emerging currencies that earlier in the year had fallen sharply, but also extended to a firmer JPY. Nevertheless, USD/JPY may be poised to recover if investors continue show improved confidence in EM and commodity currencies.
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:28am — No Comments
"Dollar Remains Out of Favor
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies over the past week. Helped by speculation that the Bank of England will likely hike rates before it currently envisions, sterling rose to its highest level since…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
"Strategy Desk Comment
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
"USD/JPY is starting to reveal a bit of support, having testing below 102 overnight and rebounded relatively quickly. This helps establish its credentials, building on the recovery since the lows below 101 two weeks ago. It looks poised to potentially make a move back to the 103/105s from earlier in the year provided global risk appetite can retain its relative stability.
The market may be reluctant to take on a more positive risk attitude going into a weekend when China is to release…
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 6:42am — No Comments
"Sterling's gains, extending yesterday's rally, are more understandable. Simply put, the market is pricing in risk that the BOE hikes rates earlier than the BOE thinks, though the debt market is consolidating after big moves yesterday. There is a relatively wide premium over Germany for 10-year bonds. The BOE and CBI have revised higher growth forecasts. The 3-year…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 12:27pm — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3556, a break below which would extend the weakness to 1.3477. Resistance is at 1.3685 ahead of 1.3739.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.47 ahead of 100.76.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair resumed its broader bullish trend and resistance focus is at 1.6668. A break above which would open the way to 1.6747. Support is at 1.6426.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8903. A break through this level…
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
"All about the GBP this morning. GBP and EURGBP vols are in panic-buy mode right now. Overnight GBP trading up around 15-16%, 1wk paid at 8.5%, 1mth 7.25%, feels like the market is short and also fancies buying topside as there are plenty of interests to buy 1-2wk area 1.66-1.67 strikes. It looks like the danger is Carney doesn’t give the market so much of an excuse to buy Cable and we trade back lower.…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 1:42pm — No Comments