AUDUSD reversed perfectly lower from 1.0380/1.0400 resistance region that we have been focusing on last week with our members. Notice that market made a very sharp fall from that level, clearly in impulsive fashion through the lower line of a corrective channel that has been tested as a resistance on Friday after the NFP report. We believe that was just a sharp corrective retracement, labeled as wave (ii) that is part of incomplete bearish cycles. With that said, we think that AUDUSD will…

Oil made a nice pull-back from 85.60 in the past few days, which we still think it represents part of a black wave 4. Notice that oil moved slightly above wave (a) swing high before price turned bearish in the last two hours. Thats very typical formation in expanded flats, so we like idea of a completed black wave 4 and wave 5 headed beneath 85. However, we need more aggressive sell-off and daily close below 87.45 to confirm the bearish view for this market.

Oil…

Silver

Liquidity and volumes were definitely lower today with most pairs and instruments playing in a tight range today.  In the process, Silver has formed back to back inside bars, or an ii pattern, and this will not go on for much longer.

Although the precious metal is trying to form a base, it has yet to show any bullish legs,…

EURUSD

Staying put inside a channel/triangle, the Euro continues to oscillate virtually on a weekly basis since early Sept.  Since we are still midway through the triangle, I expect it to continue as we generally do not exit triangles till later on in the pattern.  That plus the elections in the US will likely keep things tamed down a bit for the next few weeks.

It should be noted the last 6 weeks of price action have all been …

EURUSD has formed three patterns

1. Triangle pattern 

2. double bottom pattern

3. regular bullish divergence 

Above pattern has formed above trendline and RSI(14) IS ABOVE 50

i feel fed will not change it's policy before presidential election in US on November 6, 2012

LONG TERM VIEW IS BULLISH TOWARDS 1.3300 BEFORE MID NOVEMBER …

NZDUSD has formed falling wedge pattern and triangle pattern

Pair finds Support zone between Fibonacci level 38.2% and level 50% As shown in chart below 

If pair manage to break trendline@ 0.82 coming from 2nd Oct,2012 ' high then it opens target towards 0.85

Alternate view 

If pair breaks Strong Support level 0.8140 then pair may test support @0.800…

AUDUSD

In keeping with the Aussie which is one of my favorite pairs, the Antipodean currency has retreated from the major swing high resistance level parked at 1.0612 lately, selling off over the last two days towards the 1.0400 level I mentioned from yesterday.  In the process the pair formed a pin bar pattern off the…

EURUSD

Climbing for both 7 for the last 8 days and 7 of the last 8 weeks, the Euro has looked impressive being given the go-ahead from Bernanke and the German Court.  With the trend being so strong, I'm really looking for longs.  However, the price action is feeling a bit parabolic and climactic at this point.

Usually …

EURJPY

After the upside breakout of the 12 day range, the EUR/JPY soared for two days straight jumping about 200pips in the process.  However, some of that bullish momentum today waned as the pair formed an inside bar pattern on the daily charts, along with closing below the 100 figure in the process.  This might be ideal though as the pair could…

Today I am going to give a lesson on how to find some of the best support and resistance levels in the market.  If I had to say - I think there are three types which are the best support and resistance levels you could find.  But it would take a long time to go into each type, what are the characteristics of each, what they mean from an order flow perspective, and how to trade each type.

So I am going to cover in today's lesson, what are some of the most critical variables to…

AUDUSD

As we wrote about in our forex market commentary yesterday, the AUDUSD formed both a pin bar and dueling swords pattern, initially rejecting off of parity.  The markets gapped higher on the open from the Spanish Bank bailout of €100B, which has already seen its luster come off.  Is it now to the point that €100B…

EURUSD

As we wrote last week in our forex market commentary, expected price to go higher from the bullish engulfing bar setup off the yearly lows and higher the pair went.  Aided by a Spanish bank bailout announcement over the weekend, and the pair has gapped higher following a bullish …

**I am doing a Free webinar on The Trading Mindset this Thurs. at 14.00GMT so make sure to come.

Gold

After rocketing up $72 from the dismal NFP number, gold has trotted in place for the last two days forming an ii pattern (or a double inside bar pattern).  Although we are…

Spain, Greece and the Horror with No End...For Now

Although markets were calm today from the US Memorial Holiday, Spain today asked the EU to act in providing support for fiscally frail gov'ts (read 'Spain is begging for help') as its fiscal gaps and banking system (but, but...Bankia is fully solvent you said) are getting pummeled with soaring yields which are punishing the rates on bonds.  Again, Spain is 4x larger than Greece so if Spain…

China Slowing Down, Fear & Loathing in Europe



Prior to the London open, the China HSBC Flash Manufacturing came out worse than expectated, alarming investors globally since the motherland slowing down is a big concern as the weakening output affects all.  This initially sent the AUD and NZD lower but both recovered shortly after to hold modest gains throughout the day.

 

The situation did not get any better with German manufacturing also…

Euro Hits Near 2-Yr Low, Grexit Fears Persist



The Euro got hammered in NY trading dropping 120+pips in about 3 hours as the EU summit didn't really calm any fears of an eventual Grexit from the EZ.  Of course EZ officials telling members of the currency bloc to prepare contingency plans for an exit are not helping. 



Oh yeah, did we forget to mention European banks have the highest loan-to-deposit ratio in the world (3x that of the US banks)?…

In conjunction with FXStreet, I am doing a webinar whereby you get to choose the topic!



Just go to the facebook page for the webinar here;

Chris Capre FXStreet.com Facebook Webinar Choose the Topic



Choose from any subject related to trading so make sure to cast your vote.



You have from May 28th to vote so make sure to do it soon.



The webinar will be on Thursday June 7th…

I am going to start this article with a question which could signify a major portion of your current level of success or failure in trading.

 

The question is;



Do you believe willpower (and specifically - your willpower) is a limited resource, and if so, what do you think it limits you to learn, achieve and accomplish?  

 

A follow up question to this is:



If you work on a difficult task,…

In one of my most recent webinars on price action forex trading, I talked about a key method for detecting when a trend is over-extended, which is to look for a climax or exhaustion reversal bar.  I had mentioned how from an order flow perspective why these exhaustion and climax bars tend to represent a high probability reversal coming based on the various…