In the last few days, I tried to understand better the Crimea conflict and mostly why Putin sent his Panzers there. Asking around, I got this answer:
A Frenchman, a German and a Russian were bragging about their countries.
The Frenchman: we have modern cars. We use Renault to travel in France and the Peugeot when we go outside of France.
The German: we have modern cars too. We use Volkswagen when we travel in Germany and Mercedes when we go…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on March 4, 2014 at 11:02am — No Comments
Today the fx markets opened with gaps facing down mainly due to the recent events in Ukraine and Russia, where intense situation almost escalated into a war. Almost...but the chance that we could be on the brink of war still remains.
Today I recommend watching the Ukraine news, as those could be the key to fx market changes that could even surpass the findamental economical PMI news from Europe and US.
We sold GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY on Sunday night when the 169.60 and 90.66 levels…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on March 3, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/JPY.
For today I recommend selling EUR/USD again from 1.3691 level. Reason for entry is quite simple: 123 strategy (High – low – high – broken low), and broken uptrend lower channel line, which indicates that EUR/USD could be going down. If 1.3691 level is broken and hourly candle stays below, we could see the price going for 1.3644 first (first profit target) and then possibly to 1.3600. Anyway, I suggest moving stop loss order of…Continue
I have to say it’s been a while since I haven’t looked at eur/jpy. I did it today though. But only because I wanted to check if the eur/usd drop from yesterday was because of a strong usd or because a weak eur, so I controlled all the eur/crosses. The conclusion was that seems there is an increasing pressure on the single currency.
Next week, on 6th of March the ECB is meeting again to discuss the monetary policies and the latest inflation numbers force the speculators to…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on February 27, 2014 at 3:48pm — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from upper downtrend channel line at 1.3658 with stops at 1.3703. We sold two positions with the first profit target fixed at 1.3610.
Today I suggest moving your stop loss order for both positions to break even in case of reversal and holding them until they reach our predefined profit targets, which remain the same (1.3610 and 1.3500).
We were also selling USD/JPY from 102.62 and 102.22, but the price retraced and touched our entry…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 12, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
USDJPY’s sell-off has steadied around the 38.2% retracement/short-term channel base support; intraday weakness below the 102.20 Fibonacci level has not been sustained so the potential for a stabilization in the slide is there. It probably can’t be delayed though. Short-term trend studies are bearish and the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 1, 2014 at 7:55am — No Comments
With the momentum falling, our support focus is at 1.3524. A close below which would be a bearish development, opening the way to 1.3458. Resistance is at 1.3656.
The pair is resuming its strength bringing our focus on critical resistance at 105.75. A close above which would trigger further acceleration to 110.74. Support is at 103.91 ahead of 103.09.
GBPUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.6317, there’s scope for more upside. Resistance
Added by Daologic on January 15, 2014 at 10:48am — No Comments
"DXY: daily – The reversal from the December low suggests an increased risk for additional upside; the 81.48/55 zone is the key hurdle and should confirm the developing bullish backdrop.
The upside risks for the USD are on the rise given the bullish trending bias since late-December.
Importantly, this follows the impulsive reversal from the October lows which effectively held critical support
levels including the 79.00/78.60 area (Feb’13/Sept’12 lows), as well as the medium…
Added by Daologic on January 13, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments
"USD/JPY: Daily – The MT uptrend is back on track with the break above 103/104; key test enters at the 105.50/106.75 zone.
The medium term rally phase for USD/JPY is back on track following the reversal from the October/November lows. The push above the 103/104 resistance zone (May peak) and break from the sixmonth consolidation phase has confirmed a continuation of the bull trend from the 2011 cycle low. While the current overbought setup and extreme positioning are short term…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 13, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments
Year of the USD?
We may only be a few days into it but so far the USD is having a decent year. Compared with the other…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 6, 2014 at 10:35am — No Comments
"USDJPY had seen nine consecutive weeks of net gains prior to the current one so a correction of some sort was perhaps due. Price action Thursday signaled a peak, confirmed by losses today, albeit with developments occurring in thin and illiquid trading (Japan remains closed). The risk of a deeper pullback cannot be excluded; the USD rally looks over extended and the market has not corrected the bare minimum of the 97/105 rally seen through late 2013. Trend channel support highlighted above…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 6, 2014 at 8:32am — No Comments
"In another overnight session with poor liquidity, as Japan is still on holiday, global equity markets took their cues from the slide in stocks that began during the latter half of yesterday’s European session, with Asian equities all in the red. FX markets were more of a mixed bag though, with AUD and NZD outperforming and USD/JPY continuing yesterday’s slide lower, hitting its lowest level since the 23rd of…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 3, 2014 at 8:02am — No Comments
I remember a few weeks ago someone said: "The problem with bubbles is that if you sell stocks before the bubble bursts, you look foolish, but you also look foolish if you sell stocks after the bubble bursts." I don't remember exactly who that person was but the stock market is not the reason of this article, as I feel we have a similar situation on the Forex market. If you call now a reversal in the usd/jpy you might look foolish but also you might loose the…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on January 2, 2014 at 4:32pm — No Comments
"CADJPY is camped out below the 97.65 area that marks the range ceiling over the past 6 months. Solid interest to sell any sort of short-term JPY bounce this week had served to keep CADJPY underpinned on dips to the 97 area. The short-term trend remains well-entrenched and while the market continues to track higher in broad terms (higher highs and higher lows), a bullish break through the upper 97 area—and out of the sideways range—remains on the cards."…Continue
Added by Daologic on December 19, 2013 at 4:51pm — No Comments
"Today’s clear break above 103.10 (38.2% of the range of the past 20 years) and May’s 103.75 high opens the potential for extending gains.
A series of upside retracements (105.60, 110.00 and then 111.60) should now act as strong attraction levels as the USD/JPY uptrend gains traction.
A declining trendline (currently 106.90) off the 1998 high may also gain interest, but the near-term uptrend should be seen as a broader change in trend.
Weekly momentum is now very supportive…
Added by Daologic on December 19, 2013 at 7:11am — No Comments
"USD/CAD trade has turned a little choppy on the short-term charts. The rally in spot last Thursday signaled to us a break from the late November/early December consolidation (wedge), with the market having bottomed out right around the 50% retracement support of the 1.04/1.07 rally. While the implications of the wedge are clearly bullish—calling for a repeat of the 400 tick or so rally from the break out point (1.0590) in relatively quick order—the rebound has struggled to gain…Continue
Added by Daologic on December 16, 2013 at 5:19pm — No Comments
The USD/JPY is the key to the boom and doom of the global economy, this carry trade determines each point to which a global economic crisis is likely to take place.
If you watch the USD/JPY carefully from 1985, you will notice lower highs forming. With each peak of the high is the date where the recession had already taken place, where as if you measure the peaks for each lower high you could precisely predict when the next recession would have taken place, and following the…Continue
Added by Jay Khanna on December 8, 2013 at 9:33pm — No Comments