Our core view is that even in the event of a very strong employment result, FOMC QE tapering is still likely to be a 2014 event. Relatively illiquid market conditions near year-end, risks of another government shutdown in January, concerns about the effects of the previous shutdown on longer-term business and consumer confidence, and uncertainty over the strength of consumer spending going into the holiday season all make the case for a December taper less compelling. Even as…Continue
Added by Daologic on December 6, 2013 at 5:34am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL There is a strong resistance at 1.3627. Only a close above this would be positive, opening the way to the 1.3832. Support is at 1.3497 ahead of 1.3421.
USDJPY BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, there’s scope for further upside in the near-term to test the resistance at 103.74 and then 105.75. Support is at 101.18.
With the MACD above its zero line, any downside will be corrective and limited to support at 1.6288. Resistance is at 1.6443, a…
Added by Daologic on December 5, 2013 at 6:30am — No Comments
"We still rather think CAD/JPY’s trend higher is running out of gas. Firstly, the November rally has developed within a rising wedge pattern—a classic sign of weak or weakening momentum. Secondly, the broader trend here is sideways and we expect strong resistance in the low 97 area. Thirdly, the rally is becoming unstable, with choppy price action reflecting more balance between buyers and sellers. Short-term price trends are turning modestly bearish—with weak/bearish price signals emerging…Continue
Added by Daologic on December 3, 2013 at 7:24am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair extended its recovery and is held by strong
resistance at 1.3627. A close above which would be positive, opening the
way to the next major 1.3832. Support is at 1.3558 ahead of 1.3490.
USDJPY BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, there's scope for further
upside in the near-term to test the resistance at 103.74 and then
105.75. Support is at 100.96.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair continues to move higher and is trading within
Added by Daologic on November 29, 2013 at 7:26am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair extended its recovery and is held by strong resistance at 1.3627. A close above which would be positive, opening the way to the next major 1.3832. Support is at 1.3490.
USDJPY BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, there's scope for further upside in…
Added by Daologic on November 28, 2013 at 8:10am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair extended its recovery and is approaching strong resistance at 1.3627. A close above which would be positive, opening the way to the next major 1.3832. Support is at 1.3490.
USDJPY BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, there's scope for further upside in the near-term to test the resistance at 103.74 and then 105.75. Support is at 100.28.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 1.6260, a break through which would be positive as it would indicate…
Added by Daologic on November 27, 2013 at 6:36am — No Comments
"The recent trend higher in CAD/JPY is showing some tentative signs of fatigue. The daily pattern of trade (potential reversal signal forming) reflects the tendency we expected for the market to look at gains towards the 97/98 range as an opportunity to fade CAD strength. This is more evident on the short-term charts where a lot of indecision is evident in the mid 96 area over the past 24 hours, suggesting that the move up has stalled."…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 27, 2013 at 6:06am — No Comments
FX Set-up: EUR Squeeze into Year-end?
Seasonal factors haven’t been that good in highlighting market risks in the past few months—the “sell in…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 26, 2013 at 1:04pm — No Comments
"(...)The euro rose to a four-session high just above $1.3570, helped by supportive comments from Chinese officials. The PBOC’s Zhou acknowledged that the euro is an important PRC reserve currency and mentioned French bonds, in particular. This is consistent with the general market understanding. Zhou's comments followed remarks by Premier Li Leqiang, affirming that it…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 26, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
"EURUSD: Strong selling driven by hedge funds and asset managers. Private client and corporate sales also strong
USDJPY: Upside interest still elusive on an aggregate basis; hedge funds and corporate interest offset by asset manager selling
EURJPY: Flat on week, hedge fund buying offsetting asset manager sales
USDCHF: Asset managers engage in strongest selling since June, slightly offset by hedge fund interest
EURCHF: Asset manager and hedge funds lead…
Added by Daologic on November 4, 2013 at 1:33pm — No Comments
"EURUSD BULLISH The recent setback is staged from the critical resistance
at 1.3833. This move lower is viewed as a correction within a bullish
trend and downside will be limited. Support is at 1.3695 ahead of
USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 99.07, a break above which would open
100.61. Support is at 97.46 ahead of 96.57.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest weakness does not change the broader bullish
picture. Any further downside should find strong support at…
Added by Daologic on October 31, 2013 at 7:53am — No Comments
"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 1.3833. There's scope for a setback to unwind the overextended upside conditions from here, with support at 1.3742 ahead of 1.3695.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 96.57 ahead of 95.81. Resistance is at 98.48 ahead of 99.07.
GBPUSD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.6260. A break through which would open the way to the critical 1.6381. Support is at 1.6116.
USDCHF BEARISH The immediate risk is for a…
Added by Daologic on October 28, 2013 at 7:17am — No Comments
"EUR/USD retains a firm undertone around the 1.38 zone. Weaker than expected IFO data from Germany helped pull the EUR off new, YTD highs in the low 1.38 area but sanguine comments from ECB board member Asmussen on the exchange rate (“not a specific worry”) have failed to restore a bid to the market. Asmussen is one view on the ECB but, in this respect, Draghi’s is the most important with the EUR TWI around similar levels now to where he…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 25, 2013 at 11:42am — No Comments
The symmetrical triangle is formed when the market makes lower highs and higher lows and is commonly associated with directionless markets as the contraction of the market range indicates that neither the bulls nor the bears are in control. If this pattern forms in an uptrend then it is considered a continuation pattern if the market breaks out to the upside.
Ian Shepherdson of Pantheon Macroeconomics notes that later today we will have…
Added by Arenoosh on October 22, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
"On some measures the correlation between USD/JPY and the Nikkei is declining sharply,
This confirms that the domestic drivers of USD/JPY have become less important relative to external drivers,
And suggests USD/JPY will continue to struggle, at least until US bond yields turn higher."
Added by Daologic on October 22, 2013 at 6:22am — No Comments
"Focus: unsynchronised fiscal tightening is affecting the outlook for G3 currencies.
The Eurozone's austerity, America's budget battles and Japan's impending sales tax rise have led to fiscal policy being tightened at different times in the G3 economies over the last few years. This is affecting the
outlook for currencies as the major central banks accommodate budgetary consolidation by expanding their balance sheets. Textbook economics suggests fiscal tightening combined with…
Added by Daologic on October 21, 2013 at 7:26am — No Comments
"(...)Through mid September to early October the yen strengthened against the USD. This was consistent with signs that the JPY was benefitting from safe haven demand. However, since then the currency pair has not been exhibiting strong direction. Having bounced off the 200 day sma earlier this month, USD/JPY pushed modestly higher. In the past few hours USD/JPY have given back some ground. We maintain our long…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 9:04am — No Comments
"(...)The first (and seemingly perpetual) theme is still USDJPY. Although Kuroda has asserted several times this month that more easing is not imminent, many in markets are still willing to challenge this view as the recent deterioration in global growth - especially in the US - may require an offset. This is a valid view, but we caution against expecting too much at month end from the BoJ, while 'governmental' drivers such as the current Diet session and the November review on pension fund…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 8:15am — No Comments
"(...)Our AUD/USD forecasts envisage the currency declining to 90c by the end of this year, and to 85c
by the end of 2015. While the very near-term forecasts seem a little pessimistic against the improvement in domestic conditions and given the likely delay in tapering until Q1 2014, we retain our
view that 95/96 is likely to be the top of the range, and the currency is likely to decline from there over
Added by Daologic on October 17, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
EURUSD: Net bought overall. Strongest buying pressure from asset
managers in over a year. Leveraged accounts were sellers though.
USDJPY: Hedge funds were net sellers for a fourth week in a row, but
buying from other client categories kept the pair in net bought territory.
USDCHF: Leveraged names were surprise buyers despite the deepening
US fiscal crisis.
EURCHF: Net buying hit an 8-week high, with all client segments
joining in and pushing in the same…
Added by Daologic on October 8, 2013 at 6:55am — No Comments