A 2nd positive weekly performance in a row last week took the cross to the most positive levels traded for 4 weeks. Although the peak was produced in the middle of the week, the subsequent setback found buyers at the key 13 day moving average and the focus remains on the topside, especially with the daily Keltner channel clearly positive.
Scope exists to test an important .7387/.7412 area and the risk is .7219.…
Added by Alan Collins on March 30, 2015 at 6:59am — No Comments
Yesterday saw the market use the13 day average as a platform for further gains. This resulted in a 2nd up day in a row and the most positive close for 12 days. Intraday signals are at overbought extremes but although that does add a note of caution profit taking setbacks are currently temporary and limited with scope to 1.0975 and 1.0992.
Only below 1.0868 negates this scenario.…Continue
There was limited movement in EURGBP Monday with price action caught within similar parameters to Friday. Initial upside stalled, and reversed, below the 13 day line, and although prices closed little changed it is that upside failure, coupled with a still negative Keltner channel that leaves signals bearish going into this morning targeting .7103 and .7088.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 17, 2015 at 6:58am — No Comments
Confirming the weakness of the rally from January’s low point, selling pressure deepened last week. A 3rd down week in a row took EURUSD to the lowest levels traded since 2003. Oversold extremes remain a concern but last week's price action saw profit taking remain temporary and limited. In addition the market continues to track the lower end of falling daily & weekly Keltner channels and so, allowing for a reaction to oversold extremes, we look for the downside to continue to develop …Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 16, 2015 at 8:00am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 down days ended yesterday despite a marginally new 12 year low. There was little net movement for EURUSD as prices consolidated rather than continue selling pressure or attract significant profit taking. However, Asian price action has seen a renewal of the downside – a move that keeps prices hugging the lower end of a declining Keltner channel with scope for further downside to 1.0767 and 1.0735.The risk is…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 10, 2015 at 6:55am — No Comments
Wednesday’s decline extended yesterday. This move took EURUSD to new 12 year lows and maintained a hugging of the lower end of a falling Keltner channel. However with intraday sentiment oversold, the lows were not held and, coupled with positive divergence in Momentum indicators, the immediate outlook is counter trend bullish with potential to 1.1051 and 1.1085.…Continue
Volatile trading in the European afternoon yesterday. An initial gradual improvement, building upon Tuesday’s downside rejection reversed. The subsequent decline of more than 1 big figure was aggressive and resulted in a 2nd down day in a row and a close below the 13 day average. Despite an Asian bounce, this leaves intraday signals for sentiment negative with scope to 1.2414 and 1.2385.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 5, 2015 at 7:07am — No Comments
EURGBP was sold at lower levels for a 4th day in succession Thursday. This took EURGBP to new 7 year lows and to the bottom band of a falling Keltner channel. The scope of this week's moves – more than a big figure – means intraday signals are over-stretched but, currently, profit taking is likely to remain temporary and limited. So, coupled with bearish momentum and strength indicators we look for lower levels to continue to…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 27, 2015 at 7:02am — No Comments
Yesterday saw the negative sentiment highlighted by Tuesday’s Inverted Hammer extend. A 2nd down day in a row cemented prices beneath that 13 day moving average. The scope of the turn in USDCAD means sentiment is oversold but currently there is no sign of anything other than temporary intraday rallies with potential through 1.2402 to 1.2361 and 1.2328.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 26, 2015 at 6:56am — No Comments
Initial price action Monday continued the setback from last week's top. But this downside was, expectedly, temporary and found fresh demand near the key 13 day moving average. This resulted in strong buying that produced the highest closing level of the month. Asian trading has seen a modest reactive move but sentiment is positive with potential to 1.5481 and 1.5519.
The risk level is below 1.5398.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 24, 2015 at 7:00am — No Comments
EURUSD continues to fluctuate around the 13 day average. Initial trading yesterday reversed Tuesday’s gains but in late price action the bulk of this downside was regained. Limited net movement means signals for sentiment cannot be strong but the downside rejection coupled with demand in Asia above the average means studies are positive with potential through 1.1449 to 1.1487.…Continue
Against a background of bearish signals for sentiment for this week, there was only minor movement yesterday. But price action remains close to the bottom of a declining Keltner channel and an early attempt to rally found sellers at lower levels. With no sign of an end to this gradual deterioration in sentiment, and a new 7 year low posted in Asia, further downside is anticipated towards the 2008 low at .7342.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2015 at 6:58am — No Comments
A trend of higher weekly CABLE lows which have been posted since January’s 18 month base at 1.4951 and a weekly close above the 13 day average rate kept last week’s signals pointing higher. These were confirmed as the sequence of higher weekly lows has been extended to 3 and with gains of almost 2 Big Figs. There is no sign that the demand to buy dips is ending so we continue to look to the topside with potential to 1.5560 or even 1.5621.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 16, 2015 at 9:30am — No Comments
After 3 days of consolidation/limited net movement buying interest was attracted to EURUSD yesterday. This took prices to test the key 13 day moving average and although that point was not clearly breached, the underlying positive tone has been reinforced by Asian demand this morning with potential to retest this month's highs in the coming days.
Intraday targets are 1.1458 and 1.1487 with a risk of 1.1371.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 13, 2015 at 7:02am — No Comments
Against a background of negative signals for sentiment for this week, yesterday saw EURGBP continue to hug the lower end of a declining daily Keltner channel. But after posting a new 7 year low, profit taking, from oversold extremes, developed. That move is counter trend and must be treated with caution but the recovery of virtually the entire initial fall produced a Bullish Hammer targeting .7462 or even towards .7493.
Only below .7401 negates this bullish outlook.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 12, 2015 at 7:01am — No Comments
Against a background of positive signals for sentiment for this week, yesterday saw a return of buying interest. After 2 days of decline the trend defining 13 day moving average was untested and buyers emerged around the 1.5200 level. Monday’s net fall was regained but the highs were not maintained and Asia has attracted some further downside. Nonetheless, temporarily and cautiously, sentiment is assessed as positive and so our call is Cautiously Bullish while above 1.5197, yesterday's low.…Continue
Despite the previous week's 7 year low being unbroken . Initial profit taking stalled, and attracted fresh selling, at the key 13 day moving average – a level that has held for almost 2 months. Wednesday’s Marabuzo line, and the 13 day moving average, is now capping rallies and so although intraday price action is likely to remain volatile we look for rallies this week to be limited by .7521 with potential to .7377 and .7342.…Continue
Asian downside yesterday extended Wednesday’s strong rejection of the 13 day moving average. Europe reacted from those lows but the bounce was a limited one – capped comfortably by Wednesday’s Marabuzo line. While the unchanged close does reflect a degree of investor indecision it is the weakness of the rally that, coupled with a declining Keltner channel, keeps the focus on the downside targeting .7455 and .7435.…Continue
Like EURUSD this week's signals highlight a lack of clear immediate signals for sentiment. This was confirmed by limited net movement yesterday and similar ranges to Friday’s indecisive trading. So, despite remaining under the 13 day average and the Keltner channel being bearish, immediate studies have to be assessed with caution. Nonetheless lower levels in Asia keep the focus on the downside with potential to 1.4989 or even 1.4951. The risk level is currently assessed as…Continue
This week's consolidation continued yesterday. Little net movement has been seen over 3 days of trading but it is the weakness of profit taking attempts coupled with a still declining Keltner channel than emphasises that the underlying tone remains negative with potential through .7427 to .7405.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 29, 2015 at 7:03am — No Comments