The rally from last month’s 2 year low extended last week. This 2nd up week in succession was a tentative move dominated by Monday’s gains and uncomfortable above .7900. In fact the last 5 trading days have oscillated around the important 13 day moving average. Although this clearly highlights a degree of uncertainty, and Friday’s close was marginally below the average line, 3cA studies are left mildly positive with potential through .7900 to .7932.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on October 13, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
The sequence of 3 up weeks ended with the market unable to sustain prices beyond a 50% correction of the fall from this year’s top, 1.0949. The most negative performance for 7 weeks resulted from this price action. This downside stalled on Friday around the 13/100/200 day moving averages and this introduces a note of caution but sentiment is left negative with only the…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 18, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
Although a new 2 month low was posted in early trading yesterday, Monday’s indecisive price action was followed by profit taking. This bounce created a Bullish Hammer on daily candle charts which, especially ahead of a key 50% correction point, leaves immediate sentiment as positive. The bounce is likely to be temporary, especially while the 13 day average is intact, but sentiment is assessed as positive with potential to 1.6825, 1.6847 and 1.6866.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 13, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments
An initial move to 7 month highs proved temporary. Profit taking was attracted above .9100 and the resulting pullback left prices virtually unchanged on the week – the 2nd such week in a row. It is the upside rejection though that has given technical signals a negative tone, although the stalling on Friday at the 13 day moving average is a concern. So potential exists for a profit taking setback to .8971/91 or even .8916.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 11, 2014 at 6:35am — No Comments
Although the bulk of last week's price action showed marginal movement, the week ended with a powerful move higher. Friday’s gains – the most aggressive daily performance since March – dominated price action breaking an important Marabuzo line, testing the top of a now rising Keltner channel and, most importantly, completed a Bullish Morning Star pattern on weekly charts. This formation often signals a complete change of sentiment and so we see potential through .8011 to .8050 with .8124…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 4, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
Following a week of indecisive trading, last week saw a renewal of investor demand. This continued the rally from this month’s low and took USDCAD to the highest levels for 5 weeks. This move was dominated by Friday’s powerful gains and although a failure to break through the 200 day avg or the Marabuzo line created 5 weeks previously concerns, the support offered by the 13 day avg last week, and a move to the top of a rising Keltner channel gives scope for the upside to extend to 1.0857 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 28, 2014 at 7:58am — No Comments
The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments
This patterns works good after all.…Continue
Added by Octavio Dolores on July 8, 2014 at 3:33pm — No Comments
A sequence of 2 up weeks ended last week despite initial upside reaching the most positive levels for 6 weeks. This was achieved at the beginning of the week but prices were unable to be sustained above the 200 day moving average and 4 consecutive daily losses were posted into Friday’s close. With the 13 day moving average breached and medium-term signals turning increasingly negative we look for the downside to deepen further.
Potential exists to 1.3477 and even towards 1.3369, a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 7, 2014 at 6:51am — No Comments
A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.
In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
The consolidation above the 13 day moving average turned to more significant buying interest yesterday as the average platformed gains. 2 week highs were posted and although almost half of that upside was reversed into the close, the move leaves intraday sentiment more positive. With this underlying tone, but with caution,there is scope for the market to focus on 1.3670 and 1.3694.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 26, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
A 3rd up week in succession was posted in CABLE last week although the scope of the upside was significantly less than the preceding week.
That was due to profit taking attempts above the psychological level of 1.7000, at the highest levels traded since Oct 2008 and with signals for sentiment at overbought extremes.
But although the…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 23, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments
Last week saw an aggressive rejection of 4 month lows after the market corrected 38% of the 2013-14 gains.
That renewal of demand is, in our assessment the key background element to EURUSD despite the last 3 trading days all producing losses and the 13 day moving average continuing to cap.
In addition, bullish divergence in 3cA studies also suggests the likelihood of a rally from close to current levels. with potential to 1.3578 and 1.3603/13.…Continue
The gradual decline from April’s top stalled, and reversed last week. These gains, although dominated by Monday’s turnaround in investor sentiment, regained more than 3 weeks of downside, traded and sustained levels above the 13 day avg and took USDCAD to the top of an increasingly positive Keltner channel.
A note of caution is introduced by the last 2 days stalling but signals for sentiment are assessed as positive with potential towards 1.1022 and 1.1054.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 9, 2014 at 6:31am — No Comments
Although the upside extended, in a sharp spike, higher than assessed initially yesterday, gains were not maintained. Instead the market continued to fluctuate above the daily Ichimoku Cloud but without sustaining prices beyond last Wed’s Marabuzo line - the 3rd day in a row that that point has curtailed demand. It is that failure, coupled with selling interest attracted in Asia that means that intraday signals for sentiment are left negative with potential to 1.6693 and 1.6660.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 4, 2014 at 5:57am — No Comments
Investors bought the cross to higher levels for a 3rd day in succession. However, although the market traded comfortably through the key 13 day avg, levels beyond that point were not maintained into the close. So despite this week's gains so far, it is the failure to extend beyond that point that signals a weakness of demand.
Coupled with the underlying negative tone reflected by the steady decline from March's high we look for a renewal of selling pressure with scope to .8104 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 30, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
The steady decline from last week's highs, and levels beyond the 13 day moving average, deepened yesterday. Net losses were modest but the underlying emphasised by the production of a 3rd down day in a row. Sentiment is oversold and until this month’s base is exceeded signals cannot be strong but sentiment is mildly negative with potential through 1.0814 to 1.0795 and 1.0777.Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 27, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments
The rejection of this month’s 2 ½ year highs, and the break of a trend of higher weekly lows, deepened last week. A 2nd down week in a row took EURUSD to 3 month lows, through the 100 day average and the bottom of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. Although the last 3 days saw consolidation above the 200 day moving average, sentiment going into this week is negative and further downside is targeted with potential to test the 200 day moving average and 1.3600, a 76% correction level.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 19, 2014 at 7:09am — No Comments
Initial trading yesterday saw the demand from this month’s low continued. This latest upside took USDCHF through the top of the rising Keltner channel and to the most positive levels traded for 13 weeks. However, these gains were aggressively reversed, correcting overbought extremes, and bringing prices back to the 100 day avg and the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The failure to break through that area is a concern but the upside rejection dominates the background and so there is…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on May 16, 2014 at 6:33am — No Comments