A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.
1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel. 2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.
3) CHF showing broad strength.
Potential for .8712 and .8676.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments
Monday’s failure at the top of the Ichimoku Cloud proved important yesterday as selling interest returned to the cross. The resulting strong decline- the most aggressive of this month – took EURGBP through the bottom of the Cloud and to the most negative levels for 5 weeks. Intraday signals for sentiment are oversold but rallies should now be temporary and limited with potential to .8215, then .8189.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 9, 2014 at 8:47am — No Comments
The setback from this year’s high continued last week with an expected 2nd down week in a row. This move lower, dominated by selling at the beginning and end of the week, took USDCAD to 4 week lows and consolidated prices within the Ichimoku Cloud. These are not strong signals but supported by negative 3cA studies and with the 13 day m.a capping we look for the downside to develop with potential to 1.0911 and 1.0870.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 7, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
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A sequence of 3 down days ended Mon as profit taking developed at the bottom of the Keltner channel. Gains were limited, after a negative gap on the open, and unable to regain any significant portion of Fri’s decline. This, despite minor gains in Asia, reflects the weakness of demand and while early gains are probable we look for them to be limited. So scope through .8761 to .8739 or even .8712.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on March 11, 2014 at 7:13am — No Comments
Each day last week saw net losses produced in GBPUSD but that setback from 4 year highs has proved temporary.
So at 3cAnalysis we’re looking for higher levels in the coming days with expected intraday dips being bought with potential…Continue
Recent consolidation ended last week with a move that emphasised the importance of buying at a 50% pullback point. Increasing demand resulted in the most powerful weekly gains since Jun and with the highest levels since 2009. The speed of the upside means signals are overbought and prone to profit taking but with prices hugging the top of both weekly and daily Keltner channels, and the 13 day avg supportive there is potential for 1.6878 and 1.7043…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
"Strategy Desk Comment
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
Expected selling pressure last week was confirmed as the rejection of levels near the 50% correction point (1.1236, 2009-11 fall) was shown important. Although the 13 day m.a, and a Marabuzo line from Jan 22nd, held the downside for the bulk of the week, Fri’s selling confirmed a more negative tone. In fact, last week's performance was the most bearish since September and formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern on weekly candle charts.
So, although some volatility must be…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 10, 2014 at 7:28am — No Comments
This year has begun with a volatility evidenced by last week's decline – a move that reversed the preceding week's direction for a 7th consecutive time. However while this price action means sentiment is more difficult to assess, this latest decline took EURUSD to 2 month lows, reversed the prior week’s entire rise and closed below the Ichimoku Cloud, the 13 day and 100 day mvg avgs.
So we look for the downside to remain the focus with potential while below 1.3609 to 1.3400 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 3, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
" EURUSD: Slightly net sold in aggregate, despite hedge funds changing tactics and turning buyers for a change.
USDJPY: Net sold overall, mainly by hedge funds and asset managers. The private client community provided some half-hearted upside interest.
USDCHF: Gentle net buying pressure seen from a broad mix of investor segments.
EURCHF: Modestly net bought overall. Asset managers, corporates and private clients joined forces to gently buy the cross, while hedge funds were…
Added by Daologic on January 28, 2014 at 11:18am — No Comments
For the 3rd day in succession there was limited net movement in USDCAD Monday. This keeps the currency pair consolidating near the top of what is still a positively trending Keltner channel. More importantly last Wed’s Marabuzo line was untested and the lows were firmly rejected. This keeps underlying sentiment as positive and so we look for gradual gains to continue with potential to 1.1137 and 1.1174.…Continue
Initial selling last week took EURGBP to the lowest levels traded for a year. However, those lows were aggressively reversed as profit taking developed at an important 62% correction of the 2012-13 rise.
The resulting bounce regained all, and more, of the early downside, posted a Bullish Hammer pattern on weekly charts and close above the 13 day moving average. Sentiment is, therefore, left positive and we look for the topside to extend this week with potential through .8349 to…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 27, 2014 at 7:17am — No Comments
Unable to extend Tuesday's setback from 9 week highs, renewed demand was seen yesterday. While the net upside was limited prices are supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the 13 day moving average.
In addition the 'golden' cross of the 13 & 100 day averages confirms a trending market with potential for the upside to retest this week's .9156 top and even towards .9192 in the coming days.…
Added by Alan Collins on January 23, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments
Yesterday saw a reaction to Fri’s powerful decline as profit taking developed above this month’s lows. However the rally was severely limited – unable to regain even half of the preceding day’s decline. With that point and the 13 day m.a likely to continue capping, sentiment is mildly negative with potential for .8217 and .8198.…
Added by Alan Collins on January 21, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
This week’s signals for temporary gains have been confirmed with Monday’s strong 1 Big Fig gain and new 4 week high at .9087. The end to a sequence of higher daily lows generated a short position on Tuesday and with no sign that the deterioration is ending there is potential for .8865/75 area.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 15, 2014 at 7:41am — No Comments
Buying interest reasserted last week. This resulted in a 3rd up week from the last 4 and maintained the positive tone reflected by a rising Keltner channel. The preceding week’s entire losses were regained after initial downside, and a strong setback Friday, attracted demand below the 13 day moving average. The volatility means that sentiment cannot be assessed as strong but our call is Cautiously Bullish with potential to 1.6566 and 1.6603.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 13, 2014 at 8:42am — No Comments
Trading in CABLE was volatile yesterday, but within a narrow range. Price action was defined though by the fact that setbacks remained limited and a 2nd positive daily performance in a row resulted – confirming the market back above the key 13 day moving average.
Gains are gradual and signals cannot be strong until last Thursday’s Marabuzo line is broken but sentiment is positive and there is potential to 1.6510/28.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 10, 2014 at 6:58am — No Comments
Against a back of bullish sentiment for this week, continued demand took USDCHF through the 100 day moving average – the 1st time since Sep. A 4th up day from the last 5 days means that the currency pair is trading at the highest levels for 6 weeks. Of course, the speed of gains leaves sentiment overbought but with profit taking remaining limited and CHF weakness in the background,further upside is assessed as likely with potential targets at .9136, .9165 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
Against a background of bullish sentiment for this week, demand resulted in a 4th up day from the last 5 Mon. This maintained the positive momentum from this month’s 11 month low. Signals are approaching overbought extremes but with prices now tight to the top of a bullish Keltner channel and testing the 100 day mvg avg, the underlying tone remains positive. targeting .8455, .8463 and .8481.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on December 17, 2013 at 7:01am — No Comments