"EUR/USD – how high?
EUR/USD is holding just above the EUR/USD1.3700 this morning, propelled by the soggy tone in the USD. The dollar…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at
1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.
GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments
1. Remember to place here you calls for EUR/USD price for Friday 21 February- 2014 London Open at 7:00AM GMT.
2. Just place ONE forecast, example: EUR/USD at 1.3585.
"Trading Summary | Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:37am — No Comments
"EURUSD is displaying a little more obvious strength this week as the market has pushed through, and held above, the 100-day MA and minor resistance off the late December high. What it still lacks though is a stronger sense of conviction that this move up will prove durable. On the face of it, moves are positive.…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 16, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: EURUSD—Aimless
If EURUSD manages to stay better supported today and close out the week positively, it will be the first time since mid-December that there have been two…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments
Yesterday we were selling EUR/USD from 1.3658. Stop loss was moved to 1.3653 and it was hit shortly after my signals. Well, better safe than sorry...We still got 5 pips.
EUR/USD has reached daily tops near 1.3705 after yesterday’s quick climb up from 1.3563. Today is Friday and I suggest using the opportunity and selling it again from lower level near 1.3668. Sell two positions with stop loss at 1.3706. Initial profit target must be placed near 1.3630. Don’t sell guessing tops, as it…Continue
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from 1.3658 and closed one position at our initial profit target at 1.3610. First target was hit bringing us 48 pips of profit. Right now I suggest keeping your last position with the same profit target at 1.3500. Move stops to 1.3653, in case EUR starts appreciating against the USD aggressively.
I also recommended selling USD/JPY and EUR/JPY…
We sold two USD/JPY positions from 102.37 with first profit target fixed at 102.02. It was…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 13, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
USDCAD: Corrective Bias Persists
Open 1.1001 Range 1.0976/1.1025 Prev. Close 1.1003…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 1:49pm — No Comments
"The big event today is the BOE's Quarterly Inflation Report and the updated economic assessment and forward guidance. We noted yesterday that the implied yield of the March 2015 short-sterling had fallen by about 30 bp since January 23 as the market priced in Carney's push back against early tightening expectations. While Carney continues to argue against the need for an…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 12:24pm — No Comments
"The recent improvement in domestic data, together with the RBA shifting to a neutral bias, has supported the AUD in recent weeks, but we remain strategically bearish.
Overnight the ECB struck a more neutral tone than anticipated as inflation remains low, but growth and lending conditions continue to improve.
Long EUR/AUD provides an opportunity to go short AUD with a good risk/reward profile. It should outperform in either an environment of rising US yields, or in one where risk…
Added by Daologic on February 7, 2014 at 7:10am — No Comments
"There are three reasons why negative ECB rates can have a large impact on the euro.
First, even in a ZIRP world, the FX market remains very sensitive to short-end rates. Running regressions across all tenors, the correlation between EUR/USD and rate…Continue
"On the eve of the ECB meeting EUR/USD and EUR/GBP have firmed a little. The market may be expecting some dovish noises from the ECB, and can see some possible steps, although favours no action at this meeting. RBS is calling for a cut in the refi rate to 10bp from 25bp. But this would largely be to counter the modest rise in cash rates as the excess liquidity in the system (ECB balance sheet) has dwindled as banks have steadily paid back emergency term loans under the LTRO programs.…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 6, 2014 at 7:22am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Risk On/Off Correlations Tighten
G-10 FX risk correlations continue to tighten (safe havens correlating negatively with US stocks, see chart, over). We noted earlier in the week that risk…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 5, 2014 at 12:45pm — No Comments
"The UK economy expanded by 1.9% YoY in 2013. This growth rate is far greater than the expectations that persisted at the start of last year. While this is welcome it needs to be put into perspective. The ONS
estimate that in 2013Q4 the economy was still 1.3% smaller than the peak in 2008Q1. From peak to trough the UK economy shrank 7.2%. The recovery is also not well balanced with the export sector remaining soft. Further growth in business investment would also be welcome. This…
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 4:09pm — No Comments
"The recent slew of Japanese economic data releases suggest that policy stimulus is having an effect. In December the national CPI inflation rose at its fastest pace in 5 years (1.6% YoY), the jobless rate dipped to 3.7% and industrial production bounced back by 1.1% MoM followed its modest contraction the previous month. While the data may signal that Abenomics is working, they also play down the risk that
the BoJ will announce further stimulus in the coming months. The combination of…
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments
"The unexpected drop in eurozone CPI inflation to 0.7% YoY has rekindled speculation the ECB could see fit to consider fresh simulative policy action. The EUR has softened on the back of this talk and has tested the ground below the EUR/USD1.3500 level for the first time since November. That said, the EUR has been giving back ground to the USD only reluctantly. Indeed, on the back of the sharp sell-off in EM
currencies in late January the EUR has been showing some safe haven properties.…
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 3:30pm — No Comments
"Provided we have really seen a big countertrend rally top at 1.3893 and a minor wave 1 low at 1.3507 we are still dealing with the uncertainty of potentially missing another corrective leg up to 1.3802 (minor 76.4 %) as long as key support at 1.3507/06 (last low/daily Ichimoku-lagging) is not taken out. Below the latter though, confidence would grow that a broader downtrend is on its way which would however require final confirmation via breaks below keysupport at 1.3436/1.3378 (minor 76.4…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 7:27am — No Comments
EURCAD continues to soften. Weakness below 1.4995/00 has opened up the downside for the cross a little more in the near-term for a drop towards the high 1.48s (note 28-day MA at 1.4861) in the near-term. EURCAD needs to get back through 1.5140/50 to stabilize/improve from here. The bias looks lower in the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 7:02am — No Comments
"Act III, Scene I
The FX market’s most liquid currency pair does not fall easily. In 2010, it took the threat of a Greek sovereign default to trigger a sharp decline in EURUSD. In 2012, the inconclusive outcome of the first of Greece’s two general elections did the damage. This time around, the threat of Eurozone deflation – and the policy response which might be provoked to avoid it – has the potential to push EURUSD closer to our end- 2014 forecast of 1.25. To be clear, UBS economics…