Sell EURAUD at 1.5330
Target of 1.45; Stop of 1.5510
"The ECB is not easing but it’s not tightening for a long time either. Meanwhile, better Australian data point to more focus on RBA policy prospects (we expect rates to move up late this year). Narrowing spreads risk pulling EURAUD sharply lower through the balance of the year and technical signals point to a possible trend reversal. Sell into modest EURAUD gains from here."
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:27am — No Comments
The week ahead could very well be the most important week of the month. Four central banks from the high income countries meet, the latest purchasing managers surveys will be released and the latest reading on the US labor market will be announced.…Continue
EURCAD squeezed out a marginal new cycle high earlier but the EUR’s push through the previous peaks in the low 1.53 area is not –yet—sticking. We still think the short-term trend here is positive—the underlying trend dynamics are positive, keeping the market pushed up against the ceiling of the 2014 consolidation…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 5:13am — No Comments
"GBP – how much further?
Since Bank of England Governor Carney outlined the new forward guidance in the February Inflation Report, a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/JPY.
For today I recommend selling EUR/USD again from 1.3691 level. Reason for entry is quite simple: 123 strategy (High – low – high – broken low), and broken uptrend lower channel line, which indicates that EUR/USD could be going down. If 1.3691 level is broken and hourly candle stays below, we could see the price going for 1.3644 first (first profit target) and then possibly to 1.3600. Anyway, I suggest moving stop loss order of…Continue
EUR/USD has broken the daily support at 1.3685, which also served as the last week low. With this in mind, we will be selling this pair, unless it comes back above 1.3700. I suggest selling it from 1.3681 with stops above 1.3703. First profit target is near 1.3640.
I also suggest selling GBP/USD from 1.6671 with stops at 1.6711. Sell two positions and the first has to be closed near 1.6630. GBP/USD is currently in a descending channel and unless it breaks the 1.6730…Continue
"Markets Searching for Direction, Latch on to Geo-Politics…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 5:56am — No Comments
EURCAD trapped in a tight range just below the recent peaks. We had expected limited weakness in the cross despite the minor top/reversal signals seen here last week (shooting start signal) as the broader foundations of the rally in EURCAD remain positive—strong underlying trend momentum evident across a range of…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 3:57pm — No Comments
Yesterday we bought EUR/USD from 1.3745 and EUR/JPY from 140.93. I suggest holding those trades with the same profit and stop targets like I described yesterday.
In case EUR/JPY starts reversing, wait for the pair to break the support barrier at 139.00 and sell only then. I still think that we will hit the weekly top at 145.47, make a double top and only then we might retrace a bit further.
GBP/JPY is stuck in the same whipsaw channel between 171.80 and…Continue
We bought EUR/JPY from 140.93 and GBP/JPY from 171.20 on Friday. GBP/JPY didn’t work out, even though I still believe we will see this pair coming up.
EUR/JPY didn’t fall that much and we’re still in a EUR/JPY buy trade from 140.93 with the same stops at 139.93. First profit target is at 141.93. If you haven’t bought this pair, I suggest doing it now, from lower levels (currently it’s at 140.54)
I would recommend buying GBP/JPY if it breaks current resistance level at…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 24, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
"Beware of Breakouts
The technical outlook for the dollar against the major currencies is not clear. Yet, given the key events over the next two weeks, we are suspicious of the market's willingness to sustain breakouts. This seems…
It’s interesting to note that the AUD is shaping up positively on another key cross—versus the EUR. Reversal signs here are not quite so unequivocal as in AUDNZD but EURAUD doe appear to be carving out a potential Head & Shoulders top (neckline trigger currently 1.4972—coinciding with the major high/low pivot…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:57am — No Comments
" EURUSD’s short-term bias is constructive, with spot holding above key short and medium-term moving average signals. But we are struggling to really get too excited about topside prospects from here. Daily trend momentum is positive though the oscillator studies are rather flat and are not really displaying the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
Overlapping price action since the test of 1.3890 could be seen as a consolidation before a push through declining resistance (now 1.3850) and a burst towards at least 1.40 or even 1.45.
However, momentum is unconvincing and the overlapping price action could equally indicate that a broad and frustrating…
Added by Daologic on February 20, 2014 at 6:11am — No Comments
We sold GBP/USD from 1.6705 yesterday and our stop loss was set at 1.6755. Stop loss wasn’t hit and now we have a floating 13 pips of profit. I suggest moving your stop loss order to break even and waiting for the profit target at 1.6620. In case the price starts moving in a whipsaw pattern, it’s better to stay on the safe side.
EUR/USD is also moving north without even falling back and I suggest buying this pair on dips. One such opportunity is just near 1.3713 level (daily…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 19, 2014 at 7:42am — No Comments
"The EUR continues to trade strongly as a vehicle to express a weaker USD and risk haven from emerging currencies that appear to have had a set-back with evidence that China is tightening policy to control credit growth. This has been discussed and predicted in recent days by my China strategy colleague Gao Qi. He continues to see upside pressure on Chinese rates as discussed in his report (Next 24 hrs in Asia).
The external balance data for the Eurozone remains very strong. Reported on…
Added by Daologic on February 19, 2014 at 7:20am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Searching For Direction
EURUSD is nudging back towards the upper end of the recent trading range but without much of a strong sense of conviction; German data today was a little disappointing…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 18, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments
EUR/USD has been moving near resistance levels for three days already without clear or aggressive movement north or south. I suggest selling it only after it breaks current daily support at 1.3688 with stops above 1.3726. Sell two positions with profit targets at 1.3650 and 1.3620. In case the price moves in a whipsaw pattern and pushes out our stops, don’t sell this pair anymore. EUR/USD may as well be in the accumulation mood looking for higher highs.
GBP/USD is also…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 18, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
"While the tone of last week's BoE Inflation Report was as dovish as we had expected, we clearly didn't get the change to the guidance framework that we had anticipated. The BoE chose to abandon 'explicit' forward guidance, prompting a repricing of market policy rate expectations. We have not changed our forecast for Bank Rate (first hike in Q3:15) but acknowledge that the risks have shifted towards an earlier move (Q2, or even Q1, 2015). Our colleagues in UK Economics conclude that the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 2:14pm — No Comments