While most of us were enjoying the weekend, Mario Draghi – the ECB president – hold a press conference in Washington DC. The key of his statement was that a further strengthening of the euro exchange rate would require more loosening in the European Central Bank's monetary policy to keep the overall policy stance as accommodative as it is now. This is the reason for the today’s eur/usd gap.
As usual, he gave no numbers, no thresholds to guide us to understand how much is too much. "I…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on April 14, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
Current upmove should be ended around 1.3804 - 1.3827. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.3767 - 1.3752 zone.
irregular flat correction up 1.3877
Warning: Imminent end of bullish move
In my last analysis about Gbp/Usd I was saying that the RSI on the daily chart indicates that the bulls are somehow tired. Today the cable made a new lower low and this intrigued me: why is the GBP sold? It is not only against USD but against all the other currencies. There was no surprising bad numbers lately, no dovish statements, no nothing. If you ask me, the British economy is the only one in the world that at this moment is really recovering. If the selling would have come in a general…Continue
For more than one month, I build a strong case for shorting the euro, bringing many fundamentals to support my idea, as also some technical patterns who were suggesting that it “might work”. I, as many other traders, were waiting for Mr Draghi to pull the trigger during his press conference, yesterday. However, something really strange happened yesterday morning, six hours before the ECB press conference: the euro-bund dropped from 144.67 till 142.45. How is it possible to sell so…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on March 7, 2014 at 12:23pm — No Comments
In the last few days, I tried to understand better the Crimea conflict and mostly why Putin sent his Panzers there. Asking around, I got this answer:
A Frenchman, a German and a Russian were bragging about their countries.
The Frenchman: we have modern cars. We use Renault to travel in France and the Peugeot when we go outside of France.
The German: we have modern cars too. We use Volkswagen when we travel in Germany and Mercedes when we go…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on March 4, 2014 at 11:02am — No Comments
Today the fx markets opened with gaps facing down mainly due to the recent events in Ukraine and Russia, where intense situation almost escalated into a war. Almost...but the chance that we could be on the brink of war still remains.
Today I recommend watching the Ukraine news, as those could be the key to fx market changes that could even surpass the findamental economical PMI news from Europe and US.
We sold GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY on Sunday night when the 169.60 and 90.66 levels…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on March 3, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/JPY.
For today I recommend selling EUR/USD again from 1.3691 level. Reason for entry is quite simple: 123 strategy (High – low – high – broken low), and broken uptrend lower channel line, which indicates that EUR/USD could be going down. If 1.3691 level is broken and hourly candle stays below, we could see the price going for 1.3644 first (first profit target) and then possibly to 1.3600. Anyway, I suggest moving stop loss order of…Continue
I have to say it’s been a while since I haven’t looked at eur/jpy. I did it today though. But only because I wanted to check if the eur/usd drop from yesterday was because of a strong usd or because a weak eur, so I controlled all the eur/crosses. The conclusion was that seems there is an increasing pressure on the single currency.
Next week, on 6th of March the ECB is meeting again to discuss the monetary policies and the latest inflation numbers force the speculators to…Continue
Added by Arenoosh on February 27, 2014 at 3:48pm — No Comments
EUR/USD has broken the daily support at 1.3685, which also served as the last week low. With this in mind, we will be selling this pair, unless it comes back above 1.3700. I suggest selling it from 1.3681 with stops above 1.3703. First profit target is near 1.3640.
I also suggest selling GBP/USD from 1.6671 with stops at 1.6711. Sell two positions and the first has to be closed near 1.6630. GBP/USD is currently in a descending channel and unless it breaks the 1.6730…Continue
Yesterday we bought EUR/USD from 1.3745 and EUR/JPY from 140.93. I suggest holding those trades with the same profit and stop targets like I described yesterday.
In case EUR/JPY starts reversing, wait for the pair to break the support barrier at 139.00 and sell only then. I still think that we will hit the weekly top at 145.47, make a double top and only then we might retrace a bit further.
GBP/JPY is stuck in the same whipsaw channel between 171.80 and…Continue
We bought EUR/JPY from 140.93 and GBP/JPY from 171.20 on Friday. GBP/JPY didn’t work out, even though I still believe we will see this pair coming up.
EUR/JPY didn’t fall that much and we’re still in a EUR/JPY buy trade from 140.93 with the same stops at 139.93. First profit target is at 141.93. If you haven’t bought this pair, I suggest doing it now, from lower levels (currently it’s at 140.54)
I would recommend buying GBP/JPY if it breaks current resistance level at…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 24, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
Before I expose my view about this pair please understand that my analyze is for long term - meaning the expectations to see the following scenario are for the next weeks and not for the next hours. For those of you having problems to establish the trend I recommend you to read the Dow's Theory - it's the best way you can establish a trend.
According to the Dow Theory:
(1) The "main movement", primary…
We sold GBP/USD from 1.6705 yesterday and our stop loss was set at 1.6755. Stop loss wasn’t hit and now we have a floating 13 pips of profit. I suggest moving your stop loss order to break even and waiting for the profit target at 1.6620. In case the price starts moving in a whipsaw pattern, it’s better to stay on the safe side.
EUR/USD is also moving north without even falling back and I suggest buying this pair on dips. One such opportunity is just near 1.3713 level (daily…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 19, 2014 at 7:42am — No Comments
EUR/USD has been moving near resistance levels for three days already without clear or aggressive movement north or south. I suggest selling it only after it breaks current daily support at 1.3688 with stops above 1.3726. Sell two positions with profit targets at 1.3650 and 1.3620. In case the price moves in a whipsaw pattern and pushes out our stops, don’t sell this pair anymore. EUR/USD may as well be in the accumulation mood looking for higher highs.
GBP/USD is also…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 18, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
Yesterday we were selling EUR/USD from 1.3658. Stop loss was moved to 1.3653 and it was hit shortly after my signals. Well, better safe than sorry...We still got 5 pips.
EUR/USD has reached daily tops near 1.3705 after yesterday’s quick climb up from 1.3563. Today is Friday and I suggest using the opportunity and selling it again from lower level near 1.3668. Sell two positions with stop loss at 1.3706. Initial profit target must be placed near 1.3630. Don’t sell guessing tops, as it…Continue
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from 1.3658 and closed one position at our initial profit target at 1.3610. First target was hit bringing us 48 pips of profit. Right now I suggest keeping your last position with the same profit target at 1.3500. Move stops to 1.3653, in case EUR starts appreciating against the USD aggressively.
I also recommended selling USD/JPY and EUR/JPY…
We sold two USD/JPY positions from 102.37 with first profit target fixed at 102.02. It was…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 13, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from upper downtrend channel line at 1.3658 with stops at 1.3703. We sold two positions with the first profit target fixed at 1.3610.
Today I suggest moving your stop loss order for both positions to break even in case of reversal and holding them until they reach our predefined profit targets, which remain the same (1.3610 and 1.3500).
We were also selling USD/JPY from 102.62 and 102.22, but the price retraced and touched our entry…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 12, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
Year of the USD?
We may only be a few days into it but so far the USD is having a decent year. Compared with the other…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 6, 2014 at 10:35am — No Comments
There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery to at least 1.3817 or even above 1.3860. Supports at 1.3714 and 1.3654 zone.
extended impulse wave up 1.3846
It should trade lower to 1.3677 or 1.3647 in extension while 1.3697 - 1.3708 offer resistance. A break of 1.3725 will damage this bearish view.
I try to sell under 1.3725 of cource in bigger view we can try to sell under 1.3780 but for now if breakout above 1.3730 so going to 1.3780 and if breakout under 1.3720 we back to 1.3670 till 1.3620…Continue