UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
Current upmove should be ended around 1.3804 - 1.3827. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.3767 - 1.3752 zone.
irregular flat correction up 1.3877
Warning: Imminent end of bullish move
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
Disappointing Chinese date is weighing heavily on Australian dollar sentiment. New vehicle sales and RBA minutes scheduled for Sunday/Monday respectively. Disappointing data and dovish minutes will compound negative investor sentiment, and could drive the AUD/USD towards January lows. Positive data and hawkish minutes would likely create some short term strength in the AUD/USD, but may not be enough to reverse the longer term downtrend. Keep in mind the reason the Australian Dollar had such…Continue
Added by Daniel Elo on March 14, 2014 at 4:00pm — No Comments
Today the fx markets opened with gaps facing down mainly due to the recent events in Ukraine and Russia, where intense situation almost escalated into a war. Almost...but the chance that we could be on the brink of war still remains.
Today I recommend watching the Ukraine news, as those could be the key to fx market changes that could even surpass the findamental economical PMI news from Europe and US.
We sold GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY on Sunday night when the 169.60 and 90.66 levels…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on March 3, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/JPY.
For today I recommend selling EUR/USD again from 1.3691 level. Reason for entry is quite simple: 123 strategy (High – low – high – broken low), and broken uptrend lower channel line, which indicates that EUR/USD could be going down. If 1.3691 level is broken and hourly candle stays below, we could see the price going for 1.3644 first (first profit target) and then possibly to 1.3600. Anyway, I suggest moving stop loss order of…Continue
EUR/USD has broken the daily support at 1.3685, which also served as the last week low. With this in mind, we will be selling this pair, unless it comes back above 1.3700. I suggest selling it from 1.3681 with stops above 1.3703. First profit target is near 1.3640.
I also suggest selling GBP/USD from 1.6671 with stops at 1.6711. Sell two positions and the first has to be closed near 1.6630. GBP/USD is currently in a descending channel and unless it breaks the 1.6730…Continue
Yesterday we bought EUR/USD from 1.3745 and EUR/JPY from 140.93. I suggest holding those trades with the same profit and stop targets like I described yesterday.
In case EUR/JPY starts reversing, wait for the pair to break the support barrier at 139.00 and sell only then. I still think that we will hit the weekly top at 145.47, make a double top and only then we might retrace a bit further.
GBP/JPY is stuck in the same whipsaw channel between 171.80 and…Continue
We bought EUR/JPY from 140.93 and GBP/JPY from 171.20 on Friday. GBP/JPY didn’t work out, even though I still believe we will see this pair coming up.
EUR/JPY didn’t fall that much and we’re still in a EUR/JPY buy trade from 140.93 with the same stops at 139.93. First profit target is at 141.93. If you haven’t bought this pair, I suggest doing it now, from lower levels (currently it’s at 140.54)
I would recommend buying GBP/JPY if it breaks current resistance level at…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 24, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
We sold GBP/USD from 1.6705 yesterday and our stop loss was set at 1.6755. Stop loss wasn’t hit and now we have a floating 13 pips of profit. I suggest moving your stop loss order to break even and waiting for the profit target at 1.6620. In case the price starts moving in a whipsaw pattern, it’s better to stay on the safe side.
EUR/USD is also moving north without even falling back and I suggest buying this pair on dips. One such opportunity is just near 1.3713 level (daily…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 19, 2014 at 7:42am — No Comments
EUR/USD has been moving near resistance levels for three days already without clear or aggressive movement north or south. I suggest selling it only after it breaks current daily support at 1.3688 with stops above 1.3726. Sell two positions with profit targets at 1.3650 and 1.3620. In case the price moves in a whipsaw pattern and pushes out our stops, don’t sell this pair anymore. EUR/USD may as well be in the accumulation mood looking for higher highs.
GBP/USD is also…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 18, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
Yesterday we were selling EUR/USD from 1.3658. Stop loss was moved to 1.3653 and it was hit shortly after my signals. Well, better safe than sorry...We still got 5 pips.
EUR/USD has reached daily tops near 1.3705 after yesterday’s quick climb up from 1.3563. Today is Friday and I suggest using the opportunity and selling it again from lower level near 1.3668. Sell two positions with stop loss at 1.3706. Initial profit target must be placed near 1.3630. Don’t sell guessing tops, as it…Continue
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from 1.3658 and closed one position at our initial profit target at 1.3610. First target was hit bringing us 48 pips of profit. Right now I suggest keeping your last position with the same profit target at 1.3500. Move stops to 1.3653, in case EUR starts appreciating against the USD aggressively.
I also recommended selling USD/JPY and EUR/JPY…
We sold two USD/JPY positions from 102.37 with first profit target fixed at 102.02. It was…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 13, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD from upper downtrend channel line at 1.3658 with stops at 1.3703. We sold two positions with the first profit target fixed at 1.3610.
Today I suggest moving your stop loss order for both positions to break even in case of reversal and holding them until they reach our predefined profit targets, which remain the same (1.3610 and 1.3500).
We were also selling USD/JPY from 102.62 and 102.22, but the price retraced and touched our entry…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 12, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
There are initial signs of a good corrective recovery to at least 1.3817 or even above 1.3860. Supports at 1.3714 and 1.3654 zone.
extended impulse wave up 1.3846
It should trade lower to 1.3677 or 1.3647 in extension while 1.3697 - 1.3708 offer resistance. A break of 1.3725 will damage this bearish view.
I try to sell under 1.3725 of cource in bigger view we can try to sell under 1.3780 but for now if breakout above 1.3730 so going to 1.3780 and if breakout under 1.3720 we back to 1.3670 till 1.3620…Continue
preferred outlook is for a drift down to 1.3643 or below 1.3620. Resistances are at 1.3667 and 1.3679. A rise above 1.3702 would delay but not abort this expected fall.
After last Buy , i going to start sell from now under 1.3705/10 i looking for 1.3640/20 as target , and continue to sell under 1.3620 but we have correction there…Continue
Added by benyamin fard on December 26, 2013 at 10:27am — No Comments
Current rise should end around 1.3706 or 1.3718. Objectives of this downmove are 1.3672 or 1.3648. A rise above 1.3741 is again bullish.
flat correction up 1.3765…