UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
Current upmove should be ended around 1.3804 - 1.3827. Any correction consolidation should find support in 1.3767 - 1.3752 zone.
irregular flat correction up 1.3877
Warning: Imminent end of bullish move
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments
The yen was the easily the strongest of the major currencies, gaining almost 2% against the dollar. The Swiss franc (0.6%) would have been the second strongest, but the hawkishness of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand helped push the Kiwi ahead of it (0.8%). Our technical work had identified the Australian dollar as particular vulnerable. It and sterling were…Continue
"The early March reversal in USDBRL has extended modestly this week and while the market has struggled to push through 2.36/2.37 (55-day MA at 2.3741 today), gains are enough to suggest to us that the track higher is more likely to extend further. Daily patterns are positive and weekly price signals are…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:26am — No Comments
"USDJPY looked in good technical shape through the end of last week but the bind tone has quickly vanished. Losses this week have dumped the USD back below “cloud” chart support, with the confirming cross lower in the “tankan” span indicating a bias towards more weakness from here. The USD is just about holding on…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:17am — No Comments
"EURUSD hesitated only briefly early this week, respecting the “shooting star” top noted last week for a day or two, before pushing on to new cycle highs Thursday. The drop back in spot from the high 1.39 area Thursday—close to the top of the daily channel—alerts us to the risk of a deeper turn lower in the week…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:14am — No Comments
Disappointing Chinese date is weighing heavily on Australian dollar sentiment. New vehicle sales and RBA minutes scheduled for Sunday/Monday respectively. Disappointing data and dovish minutes will compound negative investor sentiment, and could drive the AUD/USD towards January lows. Positive data and hawkish minutes would likely create some short term strength in the AUD/USD, but may not be enough to reverse the longer term downtrend. Keep in mind the reason the Australian Dollar had such…Continue
Added by Daniel Elo on March 14, 2014 at 4:00pm — No Comments
Some periphery spread widening since mid-week, lower EUR yield spread, increasing risk of fall-out from Ukraine crisis, and dovish comments from Draghi suggest that the recent bullish trend in EUR is at least due a correction.
Technical outlook for EUR suggest room for a retracement
The technical outlook for the EUR is not a compelling sell. But it may appear to have lost some upside momentum suggesting at least a pull-back…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 14, 2014 at 6:58am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: AUD Slips on Risk Off…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 11:53am — No Comments
Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at
1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would
extend the strength to 1.4052.
The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above
this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48
ahead of 101.20.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t change…
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
The short-term USDCAD charts are not telling us much we don’t already know. The USD remains capped below short-term resistance in the low 1.11 area and, after a firmer start to the North American session, USDCAD has slipped modestly back towards support in the upper 1.10 zone. We see limited downside for the market…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — No Comments
"FX Set-up: EUR Gains Stall…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 12:11pm — No Comments
"Inflows trickling back into AUD
Japanese investors are making a tentative return to Australian bonds markets. That’s the clear message from portfolio flow data released last week, which includes activity up to end-January. That’s quite a reversal of sentiment given Japanese investors spent most of the past 18 months as net AUD sellers. It seems FX valuations have now fallen back to somewhat attractive levels again – low enough to pique investor interest once more. These inflows have…
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:15am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:03am — No Comments
Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at 1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would extend the strength to 1.4052.
The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48 ahead of 101.20.
As bullish conditions persist, there’s…
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 8:49am — No Comments