"AUD is likely to squeeze out shorts and may rise to .92/93
As discussed in recent reports, the Australian economic data has been much stronger than expected over the last week. The RBA Governor has attempted to discourage the AUD from rising by saying it is historically high. He repeated that today to parliament. However, he has been reluctant to say more.
He has emphasised that the RBA currently expects a long period of stable rates. In fact he has suggested…
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
"EUR/USD – new influences
Since the end of last year investors have had to contend with a whole host of extraordinary events. The Fed has started to taper its monthly asset purchases, emerging markets have…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"CAD – has it bottomed?
On the last day of January USD/CAD hit 1.1224. This was the highest level since 2009. Although there was another attempt at 1.12 last month, the USD/CAD spent most of February trading…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"EURUSD BULLISH The important trendline resistance at 1.3830 held well last Friday to prompt a setback. Only a close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.
USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions…
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:54am — No Comments
Today the fx markets opened with gaps facing down mainly due to the recent events in Ukraine and Russia, where intense situation almost escalated into a war. Almost...but the chance that we could be on the brink of war still remains.
Today I recommend watching the Ukraine news, as those could be the key to fx market changes that could even surpass the findamental economical PMI news from Europe and US.
We sold GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY on Sunday night when the 169.60 and 90.66 levels…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on March 3, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
Promising, short-term technical signals in USDCAD noted mid-week failed to deliver the upside extension we expected and price action has turned a little heavy again through the end of the week as the USD slips back to the upper 1.10s. We rather think weakness should remain limited from here, however, and tentatively…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 5:09am — No Comments
Yesterday we sold EUR/USD, GBP/USD and EUR/JPY.
For today I recommend selling EUR/USD again from 1.3691 level. Reason for entry is quite simple: 123 strategy (High – low – high – broken low), and broken uptrend lower channel line, which indicates that EUR/USD could be going down. If 1.3691 level is broken and hourly candle stays below, we could see the price going for 1.3644 first (first profit target) and then possibly to 1.3600. Anyway, I suggest moving stop loss order of…Continue
"AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced
Confirmation arrived overnight that Australian miners expect to cut back their investment spending sharply during the next financial year (July 1 2014 - Jun 30 2015).
A decline had been expected but not on such a scale. The raw estimates - which admittedly are only informed guesses - anticipate a 25.2% y/y decline in mining investment. Looking at the track record of these guesses and adjusting accordingly softens the blow…
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 8:55am — No Comments
EUR/USD has broken the daily support at 1.3685, which also served as the last week low. With this in mind, we will be selling this pair, unless it comes back above 1.3700. I suggest selling it from 1.3681 with stops above 1.3703. First profit target is near 1.3640.
I also suggest selling GBP/USD from 1.6671 with stops at 1.6711. Sell two positions and the first has to be closed near 1.6630. GBP/USD is currently in a descending channel and unless it breaks the 1.6730…Continue
"Markets Searching for Direction, Latch on to Geo-Politics…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 5:56am — No Comments
"Price action in equities and USTs during the Asian and London morning sessions suggest ‘risk off’. We suspect participants have been watching moves in CNY closely. The recent activity in the CNY suggests PBoC is aiming for more ‘two-way’ flows which are directly linked to macro economic developments. …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 25, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments
Yesterday we bought EUR/USD from 1.3745 and EUR/JPY from 140.93. I suggest holding those trades with the same profit and stop targets like I described yesterday.
In case EUR/JPY starts reversing, wait for the pair to break the support barrier at 139.00 and sell only then. I still think that we will hit the weekly top at 145.47, make a double top and only then we might retrace a bit further.
GBP/JPY is stuck in the same whipsaw channel between 171.80 and…Continue
"Too soon to rebuild AUD longs
Japanese investors have systematically run down their exposure to Australian bonds over the past two years. These outflows have finally cooled, but have yet to reverse decisively. Figure 1 for example shows that Japan’s Toushin (mutual fund) industry has steadily whittled down its AUD longs. Exposure stood at just 12.4% of total currency holdings at end-Jan and now seems to be stabilising, but well below the 22.2% high. Figure 2 shows portfolio flows by…
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 9:13am — No Comments
We bought EUR/JPY from 140.93 and GBP/JPY from 171.20 on Friday. GBP/JPY didn’t work out, even though I still believe we will see this pair coming up.
EUR/JPY didn’t fall that much and we’re still in a EUR/JPY buy trade from 140.93 with the same stops at 139.93. First profit target is at 141.93. If you haven’t bought this pair, I suggest doing it now, from lower levels (currently it’s at 140.54)
I would recommend buying GBP/JPY if it breaks current resistance level at…Continue
Added by Thom Grey on February 24, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
"Beware of Breakouts
The technical outlook for the dollar against the major currencies is not clear. Yet, given the key events over the next two weeks, we are suspicious of the market's willingness to sustain breakouts. This seems…
" USDJPY has slipped into neutral. The USD has found steady support around the base of ichimoku “cloud” through February after initially recovering from the 50% retracement support derived from the late 2013 rally. But USD gains gave stalled in the upper 102 range and the track higher in the market since the start…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments
" EURUSD’s short-term bias is constructive, with spot holding above key short and medium-term moving average signals. But we are struggling to really get too excited about topside prospects from here. Daily trend momentum is positive though the oscillator studies are rather flat and are not really displaying the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
"The USD is broadly higher on the day, with the GBP the only major currency able to resist the USD’s advance so far. The CAD is a notable under-performer on the session ahead of today’s key data releases. The offshore Chinese yuan has fallen sharply on the day so far, with weakness here spilling over a little into industrial metals. Asian and European equities are mostly positive. US futures are…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 21, 2014 at 12:26pm — No Comments
The real yield spread suggests USD/JPY can trade to new long term cyclical highs. Rapid trade balance deterioration further undermines JPY. EM tensions have helped boost JPY, but in light of clear fundamental shifts against the JPY, we see significant upside potential.
Rapid deterioration in JPY fundamentals
We thought the market might be more unsettled by the weak Chinese flash PMI. However, after the initial reaction there was little follow through in Asia and EM…
FX Set-up: FOMC Stays the Course, So Bad is not Good
Much as expected, the FOMC minutes gave short shrift to anyone expecting policy makers to flinch in the face of wobbly data or wobblier emerging…Continue