Key interim support at 1.6250 managed to hold firm and allow for a further GBP push into the historic sell zone above 1.6500 with previous highs of 1.6750 and 1.7040-50 acting as targets.
Slippage will remain critical with the trend appearing strong but highly extended. Dips should hold above 1.6600 (ideally…
Added by Daologic on February 20, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
"GBP Another big day for UK data, with BoE minutes and…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 19, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at
1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.
USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.
GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments
"Trading Summary | Stay with stronger EUR/USD as the ECB dithers on easier policy and US data fizzles. With event risk from the BoE Inflation Report now passed, GBP strength can continue. We reaffirm our 1.69 end-Q1 target for GBP/USD, but see increased overshooting risks for the coming month. NOK price action remains constructive, with a move back in line with its traditional drivers ongoing. Further outperformance is likely on a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:37am — No Comments
"Dollar Remains Out of Favor
The US dollar fell against all the major currencies over the past week. Helped by speculation that the Bank of England will likely hike rates before it currently envisions, sterling rose to its highest level since…
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments
The best way I can describe what GBP buyers are up to is to use Carl Sandburg’s words: “ I’m an idealist. I don’t know where I’m going but I’m on my way”. For those of you who don’t know who Mr Sandburg is, I will just tell you he was an American writer and poet, winner of three Pulitzer prizes.
Mark Carney, the BoE governor, revolutionized the UK’s monetary policy by introducing the forward guidance, linking it to the unemployment in the same way as FED did. Only that in the…Continue
Notwithstanding the jump in GBP post BoE inflation report, we see pressure building for further gains. The market may be reluctant to buy at the top of its recent range, but may be left scrambling if it breaks through. The recent strong UK data and outlook from the BoE suggest it is moving closer to hike than other central banks, albeit trying to keep rate hike expectations in check.…Continue
"All about the GBP this morning. GBP and EURGBP vols are in panic-buy mode right now. Overnight GBP trading up around 15-16%, 1wk paid at 8.5%, 1mth 7.25%, feels like the market is short and also fancies buying topside as there are plenty of interests to buy 1-2wk area 1.66-1.67 strikes. It looks like the danger is Carney doesn’t give the market so much of an excuse to buy Cable and we trade back lower.…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 1:42pm — No Comments
"The BoE inflation report tonight may keep the GBP in check. RBS expects the BoE to introduce some direct forecasting of its policy rate into the report in order to counter market expectations of a rise in rates too soon. The chart below shows an estimate of cash rate expectations in the major economies over the next three years. The UK has one of the steeper curves, although rate hikes are not expected to really begin until Q1-2015, still a year away. Rates are expected to be around 1% in…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 6:33am — No Comments
"Look for Market to Push Back Against Carney
The Bank of England's Quarterly Inflation Report will be released tomorrow, followed by comments Governor Carney. He is expected to signal that despite…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 2:30pm — No Comments
"Ahead of the UK inflation report on Tuesday, the UK BRC retail sales monitor showed a sharp jump in the pace of sales in Jan (5.4%y/y, up from 1.8%y/y in Dec). Like for like sales rose 3.9%y/y in Jan, above 0.8% expected, up from 0.4%y/y in Dec, the fastest rate since Apr-2011. The rise was led by non-food up 4.0%y/y).
On Monday, the Lloyds employment confidence survey balance rose from -12 to -2, a high since 2005. The data suggests that the recovery in the UK remains robust.…
Added by Daologic on February 11, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments
"USDCAD’s drop below short-term support in the 1.1040/45 area points to more weakness for the market in the near-term at least. The recent pattern of trade looks toppish on a number of technical fronts. From a short-term point of view, the 6-hour chart shows trends support break, pullback support break and a Head…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 10, 2014 at 8:22am — No Comments
"The UK economy expanded by 1.9% YoY in 2013. This growth rate is far greater than the expectations that persisted at the start of last year. While this is welcome it needs to be put into perspective. The ONS
estimate that in 2013Q4 the economy was still 1.3% smaller than the peak in 2008Q1. From peak to trough the UK economy shrank 7.2%. The recovery is also not well balanced with the export sector remaining soft. Further growth in business investment would also be welcome. This…
Added by Daologic on February 4, 2014 at 4:09pm — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL MACD has breached the zero line in favour of the bulls. Potential test of resistance at 1.3746 ahead of 1.3893. Support is at 1.3623.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The much expected recovery has finally commenced as the pair tests resistance at 103.67, ahead of 104.84. Support is at 102.078.
As bullish conditions persist, there’s further upside potential to resistance at 1.6747. A break above which would open the way to 1.7043. Support is at 1.6447 ahead of…
Added by Daologic on January 29, 2014 at 7:29am — No Comments
Despite the recent sharp recovery, the MACD is still below its zero line which is a bearish condition. Only a close above resistance at 1.3746 would extend the strength. Support is at 1.3623 ahead of 1.3508.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair has been consolidating over the past few weeks, with support at 101.63 ahead of 99.96. Resistance is at 103.30 ahead of 104.84.
As bullish conditions persist, there’s further upside potential to resistance at 1.6747.…
Added by Daologic on January 28, 2014 at 8:12am — No Comments
Based on the weekly chart and based on the weekly bearish PinBar I am short at 1.6511, SL at high of the pinbar at 1.6667, target at 1.63 and 1.6175.…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 27, 2014 at 6:54am — No Comments
"The FT has a remarkable article saying BoE Governor "Carney Signals scrapping of forward guidance". The report comes from comments from Carney at the World Economic Forum in Davos in a series of TV interviews. In particular, it suggests Carney is considering scrapping the 7% unemployment threshold. The FT reports that he will outline his views fully in a speech on Friday (Carney speaks and text will be released at 12:05 GMT).
When asked whether the BoE was about to decrease the…
Added by Daologic on January 24, 2014 at 4:09am — No Comments
With the trending indicators bearish, there’s scope for more downside in the near-term to test support at 1.3458 and then onto 1.3296. Resistance is at 1.3604 ahead of 1.3699.
As broader bullish trend firmly in place, focus is on resistance at 104.92, a break above which would open the way to critical 105.75. Support is at 103.86 ahead of 102.86.
GBPUSD BULLISH The recent sharp advance reinforces the bullish picture. Resistance focus is
Added by Daologic on January 23, 2014 at 8:08am — No Comments
FX Set-up: EURUSD Heavy But Stuck in A Range, Cross Flows May Weigh
No follow through selling after last week’s late EURSUD sell-off leaves the market in limbo because there is clearly little interest…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 22, 2014 at 12:31pm — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL With the momentum falling, our support focus is at 1.3524. A close below which would be a bearish development, opening the way to 1.3458. Resistance is at 1.3656.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair is resuming its strength bringing our focus on critical resistance at 105.75. A close above which would trigger further acceleration to 110.74. Support is at 103.91 ahead of 103.09.
GBPUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.6317, there's scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.6502…
Added by Daologic on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments