TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
Westpac - "AUD/USD: Broad USD strength has been punishing AUD more than most, just as the opposite usually holds true. Stronger local data calls into question when the RBA will cut again, helping limit AUD/USD downside. But the cleanout could easily extend to 0.9850/70 near term before bouncing back above 1.00 on stretched short positioning.
NZD/USD: A possible peak in NZ economic momentum and record spec long NZD positions in the futures market dovetail with the stronger USD move to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 2:54pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Early May, (...), has brought better US data and therefore a new least of life for the greenback. Better US data has increased the market’s sensitivity to speculation regarding when the Fed could start to reduce the amount of its monthly $85 bln asset purchases. (...) Despite this better tone, we are sceptical on the ability of the USD to push aggressively higher from current levels. The fiscal consolidation announced in the US this year will continue to have an impact for months…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 2:16pm — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- several US data releases due but claims still key
- ECB to develop an exchange rate policy?
- G7 doesn't criticise Japan, USDJPY a buy on dips
- BoE Inflation Report key in the week ahead
- Swiss deflation, rising stocks to weaken franc
- buy DNTs as Norges Bank keeps krone rangebound
- expect more RBA easing now, stay bearish AUDNZD"
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
Rabobank - "We have been arguing over the past month that while the yen should remain on a weakening trend that the upside potential of USD/JPY would be slowed if the market was paring back the size of its USD positions. This view seems to have been upheld in April though yesterday’s break of the psychologically important USD/JPY100 levels has injected fresh life into the currency pair. Over the coming weeks we continue to expect that the tone of the USD will be key in determining the pace…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 2:55pm — No Comments
UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.
With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.
(...) The dollar has chalked up…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas:
We remain long of USD/JPY from 99.40, looking for a break through 100 in the wake of stronger US data.
Our short AUD, long CAD established at 1.0635 is more than 2 cents in the money and we still target parity.
We have closed our short AUD/NZD position from 1.2525 at 1.2058 for a profit of 3.73%, though we stand ready to re-sell given divergent economic fundamentals and rate profiles.
We are still short GBP/USD from 1.5150, but will…
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The Dollar-Index did rally in the second half of last week, but ran into a wall of offers near 82.50 a key retracement objective of the previous week's drop. Provided this area holds, we are more inclined to see it fall toward 81.20 and maybe 80.70.
The decline in the euro in the second half of last week largely held a trend line drawn off the April 4 and April 24 lows. The trend line comes in near $1.3070 on Monday and $1.3125 by the end of next week. Initial…
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Japan is on holidays today, but I like the way USD/JPY has traded technically and it is time to rebuild a long position, with a stop below the recent lows (97).
USD/JPY rallied essentially with the fall in EUR/USD after the ECB policy announcements. As this was about EUR, arguably it should have had little impact on weakening the JPY. If there was excessive long USD/JPY positioning or a lack of demand, the ECB easing and a weaker EUR could have triggered a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 3, 2013 at 7:39am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.20 ahead of the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468.
USDCHF BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9207 ahead of 0.9150. Near-term resistance is at 0.9310 ahead of 0.9384.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 10:17am — No Comments
Currently we are at 97.12 and the long awaited breakout has occurred . We are looking for a small retracement back to the 618 Fibo@ 97.47 then a continuation first to the top @ 96.83 and then the S5 Support @ 96.18. The current average daily trading range (ATR) is 120 pips.…Continue
Added by Scott Barkley on May 1, 2013 at 1:05pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Insofar as the market has built up heavy USD long positions there is risk that the USD correction still has a long way to go. That said, clearly a lot of risk lies with the tone of US economic data. To date, it seems likely that the fiscal consolidation measures that have been announced in the US since the start of the year haven’t yet has an opportunity to show up in much of the official economic data. This also suggests that the USD’s pullback will have further to run.
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 1, 2013 at 10:16am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We highlighted signs of instability and weakness in the underlying bull trend in USD/JPY in the past couple of weeks (the big, bearish divergence on the daily chart between the spot market and the smoothed slow stochastic oscillator, for example). This week, price action is delivering some concrete signals of an important price reversal via a bearish “engulfing line” on the weekly chart. This is a classic—and usually reliable—candle reversal. The broader move up has been so…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:20pm — No Comments
UBS - "This week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hold their next policy meetings. The recent data flow has been weaker in both America and the Eurozone. But stock markets have remained resilient. The Federal Open Market Committee looks set to continue with its third round of quantitative easing. The ECB's Governing Council is also likely to cut its benchmark refinance rate by 25bps to 0.50% according to UBS Economics.
In short, financial markets are betting that…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 5:07pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.
GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.
USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 29, 2013 at 9:36am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.
USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.
GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The yen has strengthened in response to the unchanged monetary policy decision from the BOJ. The announcement, which came at 0535 BST, resulted in USD/JPY falling back below the 99.00 level.
(...) I think if there is anything to take from today’s BOJ policy meeting it is the fact that the BOJ believes it has made all the announcements necessary in order to achieve its more aggressive inflation target. That may illicit the market questioning what next for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 26, 2013 at 7:49am — No Comments