"Never Knew How Poor I Was Until I Started Making A Little Money - Bud Fox, Movie Wall Street 1987."
14th July 2014. The Portuguese banking system continues to make headlines and the equity markets have come off a little. Will the ECB come and rescue them? They…Continue
Added by Gary on July 14, 2014 at 8:09am — No Comments
“Stock market bubbles don’t grow out of thin air. They have a solid basis in reality, but reality as distorted by a misconception.” George Soros 9th July 2014.
We are seeing the first few down days in a row for the S&P in some time. Should the markets correct…Continue
Added by Gary on July 9, 2014 at 7:11am — No Comments
1st July 2014. The last 24 hours has seen a wave of selling against the buck with key pairs now looking quite stretched. GBPUSD is now weekly, daily and was briefly hourly overbought. EURUSD seems to be making that move up towards 1.37 that seemed on the cards a few days ago. USDJPY seems to be…Continue
26th June 2014. If you recall Q1 in the United States was all about the bad weather and the restraining effect that was having on economic activity, but that was a terrible Q1 GDP number out of the states yesterday. I am starting to have some sympathy for Janet Yellen’s “catch 22”. …Continue
Added by Gary on June 26, 2014 at 8:19am — No Comments
“To serve as Prime Minister while being too mindful of the approval rating is like serving as Prime Minister on a roller coaster. What is important, I believe, is that I really act on promises that I make and leave results. Leave a track record and show to the Japanese public, who will,…Continue
“The ability to foresee that some things cannot be foreseen is a very important quality” – Rousseau
June 16th 2014. Last week was bitter sweet. While I managed to make significant progress in my own account it came at the expense of seeing the Kiwi Dollar reverse…Continue
Added by Gary on June 16, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
Outlook in USDJPY has turned to the upside this week , the weekly closing above the 102.35 is supposed to pave the way towards the 104.12 levels , further upside will aim the 104.86 levels ahead of 105.43 levels.
On the downside , support comes at the 101.74 levels ahead of 100.43 ( main) , sustained trading – weekly closing – below the 100.43 will open 98.92 levels before the next rise , below this level will turn focus on the 96.56 levels.
In all , as long as support 100.43…Continue
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Our strategy is to look for a buying opportunity in USD/JPY. In the current environment, it may mean waiting for 100, the 61.8% retracement of the rise from the previous low in October last year before it rallied to its peak above 105 around the turn into this year. However, we would be watching closely to see if it looks to be holding the low this year in Feb near 100.75. Perhaps the strategy is to look for supports to hold and signs of it breaking its recent…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2014 at 9:04am — No Comments
In addition to BoJ decisions there are a couple of other factors which could prove to be crucial in determining the path of USD/JPY through the remainder of the year and beyond. The first is geo-political risk. There is currently a risk that investors are treating the crisis in Ukraine with too much complacency. Further deteriorating in the region could lead to safe haven demand for the yen. Also,…Continue
Added by Daologic on May 19, 2014 at 10:43am — No Comments
UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments
The USDJPY continued its bearish momentum last week , topped at the 102.35 levels , and bottomed at the 101.30 levels .Now pressure will be on the key support 101.30 …
The USDJPY will have to hold below the 101.30 levels on a weekly closing basis to push the market for further downside losses , If seen , It will target the the 100.00 levels , a halt is likely , but losing the 100.00 levels on a weekly basis will open 98.80 levels, further downside will aim…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on May 19, 2014 at 6:18am — No Comments
The USDJPY maintained a bearish momentum yesterday , printed resistance at the 102.18 levels .This development leaves the pair targeting the 101.00 levels where a breach will turn focus on the 100.55 levels , further downside will aim the 100.00 levels.
On the upside , resistance comes at the 101.86 levels ahead of 102.18 (main), break of 102.18 levels on a daily basis would recapture the 103.11 levels , If this resistance is taken out , expect the pair to strengthen further…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on May 7, 2014 at 9:33am — No Comments
“Victorious warriors win first and then go to war, while defeated warriors go to war first, and then seek to win”. Sun Tzu, The Art of War
May 6th 2014. I would say SPX 1800, USD/JPY 100.75 and EUR/CHF 1.2100 are those major areas you want to pay…Continue
Added by Gary on May 6, 2014 at 9:24am — No Comments
"To me a wise and humane policy is to occasionally let inflation rise even when inflation is running above target". Janet Yellen, chairwomen, US Federal Reserve.
April 30th. Today is not just the end of the month where additional flows can cause…Continue
Added by Gary on April 30, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments
“In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can’t perceive any risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can go wrong”
April 22nd. I’m back this morning after a week away and market liquidity should be back after yesterday’s holiday.…Continue
The United States:
Our good friends South of us have some good outlooks for us to look forwards to, the United States from what I've seen with Yellen cares a lot for the Unemployment rate.
(Source: Federal Reserve - February Monetary…Continue
USDJPY’s slide to the low end of the Feb-Apr consolidation range leaves the USD looking delicately poised. With daily cloud support failing to hold the market this week, the gently rising range (bear flag) developed over the past few weeks may be heralding more pronounced USD weakness ahead. A clear push below…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:24am — No Comments
Correlations between USD/JPY and Japanese equities have become more erratic. But Nikkei's 2.4% decline today brings Year-to-date falls above 14%. Anticipate more pressure on those sitting more in hope than expectation on remaining JPY shorts.
Potentially a downside risk for USD/JPY next few days is a higher USD/CNH and USD/CNY. Levels of complacency have been running high that (a) the USD/China up move stalls…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 10:24am — No Comments
“It is the change in the major trend that hurts most speculators”. Jesse Livermore 1877-1940 Speculator and stock trader.
April 11th. The S&P turned lower again, breaking support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February and the 38.2% Fibonacci…Continue
Added by Gary on April 11, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments