“In a state of overconfidence or euphoria, you can’t perceive any risk because euphoria makes you believe that absolutely nothing can go wrong”
April 22nd. I’m back this morning after a week away and market liquidity should be back after yesterday’s holiday.…Continue
The United States:
Our good friends South of us have some good outlooks for us to look forwards to, the United States from what I've seen with Yellen cares a lot for the Unemployment rate.
(Source: Federal Reserve - February Monetary…Continue
USDJPY’s slide to the low end of the Feb-Apr consolidation range leaves the USD looking delicately poised. With daily cloud support failing to hold the market this week, the gently rising range (bear flag) developed over the past few weeks may be heralding more pronounced USD weakness ahead. A clear push below…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:24am — No Comments
Correlations between USD/JPY and Japanese equities have become more erratic. But Nikkei's 2.4% decline today brings Year-to-date falls above 14%. Anticipate more pressure on those sitting more in hope than expectation on remaining JPY shorts.
Potentially a downside risk for USD/JPY next few days is a higher USD/CNH and USD/CNY. Levels of complacency have been running high that (a) the USD/China up move stalls…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 10:24am — No Comments
“It is the change in the major trend that hurts most speculators”. Jesse Livermore 1877-1940 Speculator and stock trader.
April 11th. The S&P turned lower again, breaking support at the bottom of a rising channel set from mid-February and the 38.2% Fibonacci…Continue
Added by Gary on April 11, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments
"From the Spot Desk
Added by Daologic on April 10, 2014 at 11:00am — No Comments
“Just like in poker, where you have to know which hands to bet on, in trading you have to know when the odds are in your favour”. Victor Sperandeo, trader & author.
Today's video is a strategy session on drivers of the USD.
April 10th 2014 . The Yen decline found…Continue
Added by Gary on April 10, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
“If you have a losing position that is making you uncomfortable the solution is very simple; get out.” Paul Tudor Jones, hedge fund manager.
April 9th 2014 – Yesterdays dramatic sell off in USDJPY once again brings us right back into an area where we begin talking about the 200 period…Continue
Added by Gary on April 9, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
We are in the midst of a powerful re-engagement with emerging markets after a year of under-performance. The USD is broadly under pressure. While the US rates outlook has not changed much recently, the USD is still largely winning the race to the bottom among major currencies. EUR continues to benefit from narrowing periphery spreads, the GBP is benefiting from its higher yields and lacking the dovish punch of the…
Added by Daologic on April 9, 2014 at 4:32am — No Comments
Added by Daologic on April 8, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments
UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments
"Trading Strategy | Continue to look for opportunities to accumulate dollars as the data challenge the Fed's push back on higher market interest rates. Add GBP/USD shorts to existing USD/CHF longs on evidence of widening imbalances and slowing UK growth. Stay short EUR/USD after last week's soft Euro area CPI report and dovish ECB. Add on a break of 1.3645. Square tactical long USD/SEK exposure ahead of this week's Riksbank meeting, but…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
“In Trading, just as in archery, whenever there is effort, force, straining, struggling, or trying, it’s wrong. You are out of sync; you are out of harmony with the market” Charles Faulkner, motivational speaker and trader.
April 7th 2014 – Last week was quite a week for currencies…Continue
Added by Gary on April 7, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments
"USDJPY gains extended this week, with the market rising steadily after pushing through cloud chart resistance in the low 103 area. But the USD rally stalled today in the low 104 area and the USD looks poised to retest cloud support imminently. Weakness back below 1.0310/20 is liable to prompt a quick drop back to…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 7, 2014 at 6:05am — No Comments
The USDJPY continued its bullish momentum last week , bottomed at the 102.78 levels , broke above the 103.42 levels and topped at the 104.12 levels .As a result ; Outlook in USDJPY turns to the upside , note that as long as 100.74 holds , outlook will remain towards the 104.83 levels , that’s in general , to resume the upside offensive , sustained trading above the 103.42 is needed , If seen , focus will be on the 104.83 where a breach will challenge 105.43 levels , further upside will aim…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on April 7, 2014 at 5:38am — No Comments
“Successful traders know that a consistent and systematic review of their daily trading activities is the direct path to growing and improving” Van Tharp Trading Coach & Author.
April 4th 2014 –There is some conflicting price action out there at the moment. The US Dollar looks quite…Continue
Added by Gary on April 4, 2014 at 8:51am — No Comments
“In general, it’s probably best to be somewhere in between a pure discretionary trader and a pure system trader” Monroe Trout, retired hedge fund manager.
April 3rd 2014 – Take note of outside days. When the range of a daily candle from the high to the low is greater than the range of…Continue
Added by Gary on April 3, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
“Casinos make consistent profits day after day and year after year, facilitating an event that has a purely random outcome. At the same time, most traders believe that the outcome of the market’s behaviour is not random, yet can’t seem to produce consistent profits– Mark Douglas, author of Trading in…Continue
Added by Gary on April 2, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Q1 Done, Thankfully…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments
"EURUSD: The pair itself was net sold, but flows through the euro overall
were finely balanced. Hedge fund sellers ran into corporates on the bid.
USDJPY, EURJPY: The yen was net sold in aggregate, but USDJPY flows were
USDCHF, EURCHF: The Swiss franc was net bought, both through EURCHF and
USDCHF. Turnover was only 82% of normal though, and hedge fund…
Added by Daologic on April 1, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments