EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
Start of the downtrend: 1.3655
Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB comfort levels (2-3%).
Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.
EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments
EUR continues free fall and indicators on H4, Daily and Weekly are extremely bearish. Seems that still noone is going to take profit from Short, and this tells me that more slide is to come. Today mr.Draghi will speak, but tomorrow will be the PMI data release and if it is weak again EUR will possibly drop below 1.2805 support. On Wednesday we shall have the Germany's IFO which is expected to be worse than previous too. On Thursday the most important news will be the US jobless claims report…Continue
EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…Continue
EUR continues the free fall and nothing seems to stop it. Target is set to 1.2805 and even below to 1.2765. Correction higher is needed, but still noone takes any profit, this means they expect more drop.Correction will start once we have over 60 pips upside H4 candle. Indicators on all time frames except M5 and M15 are extremely bearish. Maybe today we shall see some profit taking.
GOLD again is hit by the strong dollar and reached the support area 1254. If we don't see any EUR…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 9, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
Deeper and deeper EUR goes with another gap lower opening week. Finally the big players sold the EUR they have since close to 1.4000 levels. Where EUR is going to stop - it is not clear yet, but somewhere around 1.3066 we have a support area. We are currently some 200 pips below the weekly Senkou Span B price of the positive Ichimoku,however we have broken it lower too early and we have to make some significant correction higher before this break to be confirmed. The dollar is extremely…Continue
EUR dropped to 1.3185 this morning and opened the week with a huge downside gap. Today the pair may consolidate around 1.3200, and tomorrow to start a recovery. This week is the end of the month trade, so i expect some profit taking from Short after Wednesday. Weekly, Daily and H4 indicators are bearish but are already turning flat to bullish, so i think we are going to have a recovery soon, although opening with such a gap lower is not a good sign.
GOLD was not able to close the week…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 25, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments
EUR has lost almost 200 pips since Monday and the pair despreately needs a correction but still there are no any signs of a possible correction. EUR is in a free fall state, after bad data from the EU and Germany, and better news from the US. Dollar is stronger than ever but i wonder if this is a temporary strength or the start of continuous EUR weakness. The pair needs a correction at least to 1.3330-50, and maybe more next week. But first we need to deal with the 1.3290-1.3310 resistance…Continue
After several failed attempts to break 1.3400, te EUR slided down below the 1.3330 support reaching 1.3312 by the moment of writing. The area between 1.3295-1.3310 seems well protected and it will be difficult to break before tomorrow's FED decision. I think that the market is currently consuming tomorrow's news. So it is quite possible to witness a risk aversion tomorrow, reaching 1.3470-1.3500.
GOLD is trying to stay above 1292 support but breaking below will increase the downside .…Continue
The sequence of 3 up weeks ended with the market unable to sustain prices beyond a 50% correction of the fall from this year’s top, 1.0949. The most negative performance for 7 weeks resulted from this price action. This downside stalled on Friday around the 13/100/200 day moving averages and this introduces a note of caution but sentiment is left negative with only the…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 18, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
EUR did not succeed to close daily trade above 1.3380 the whole week. It moved in a small range between 1.3340 and 1.3415.Breaking of either will boost the further move in the same direction. However for now the pair seems locked inside.
GOLD has made a quick test of 1292 support but returnes fast above the previous 1305 support.Any drop below 1300 again may cause further drop to 1276 and 1254 for example.
NZD preserves the chances of upside recovery as long as the price is…Continue
The forecast has come true and the players intentions are revealed.
Yesterday in my Asian session webinar I have explained how the players are expected to make upward extended stop hunt move and drop below the initial low and continue the drop as intentional move.
The typical downward shift in trading zone. - they make the rise to appear that GBP could go higher,then suddenly use some excuse or data release or speech as trigger and drop about…Continue
Added by Dr. Sivaraman on August 13, 2014 at 10:49am — No Comments
Although a new 2 month low was posted in early trading yesterday, Monday’s indecisive price action was followed by profit taking. This bounce created a Bullish Hammer on daily candle charts which, especially ahead of a key 50% correction point, leaves immediate sentiment as positive. The bounce is likely to be temporary, especially while the 13 day average is intact, but sentiment is assessed as positive with potential to 1.6825, 1.6847 and 1.6866.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 13, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments
An initial move to 7 month highs proved temporary. Profit taking was attracted above .9100 and the resulting pullback left prices virtually unchanged on the week – the 2nd such week in a row. It is the upside rejection though that has given technical signals a negative tone, although the stalling on Friday at the 13 day moving average is a concern. So potential exists for a profit taking setback to .8971/91 or even .8916.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on August 11, 2014 at 6:35am — No Comments
EUR recovery has reached 1.3430 but the bullish power was not enough for something more, so the pair made a pullback to 1.3400, just above the support area 1.3380-90. Breaking below will test 1.3320-30 once again. We have a great chance for this because tomorrow's ZEW for Geermany is expected to be far worse from the previous value, and economic growth data for the eurozone on Thursday is also expected to be worse than previous. So i expect more slide till the end of this week.
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 11, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments
EUR lost 1.3400 again ahead of ECB meeting tomorrow. As i have said in my previous forecast we have two support areas below 1.3330 and 1.3300. Currently EUR is far below the negative Ichimoku and it is expected the pair to make a big upside correction till the end of this week. The recovery move may be a part of tomorrow's high volatility too. Daily indicators are negative while smaller ones are mixed to positive. To the upside recovery is limited by 1.3610-20 resistance and i do not expect…Continue
EUR has made a small upside correction following 1.3370 drop from last week. The pair on Daily, H4 and H1 is bullish, but on other time frames is bearish. So i think that the current recovery is just a small correction and still we have no solid ground below. Such solid support is 1.3300, for nor this seems away below, but we have the ECB meeting this week and soon EUR may become under selling pressure. We have also the PMI, EU retail sales and Germany's factory orders this week too, so it…Continue
Dollar gained much strength these days as FED continues to cut the stimulus program. USD has made significant advance against everything, but it seems that after yesterday's decision it is time for profit taking, so we have some pullback eveywhere. I expect the EUR to try to recover back to 1.3450-65 today or tomorrow. Another dollar push below 1.3375 may take the pair down to 1.3330. There we have a strong support area which is not going to be brokens soon, so you may enter LONG close to…Continue