All Blog Posts Tagged 'USD' (1,277)

Rabobank FX: Happy days

"If the EUR/USD resilience implies that the ECB is still under the shadow of the Fed, then those ‘other’ European central banks are under the influence of the ECB.   Following the ECB’s rate cuts last month, the SNB, Riksbank and the Norges Bank all became much more aggressively dovish.  In order to counter the risk that low rates will accentuate excessive risk taking (specifically in the mortgage market), these banks are…


Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments

RBSM: Australian Macro Views - RBA much more reactive to AUD above .95

"We interpret the speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens this week as evidence that the RBA is much more reactive to the exchange rate above .95. It may lean towards either an easing bias or threaten intervention if it were to rise above this level, especially if its key commodity prices remain weaker. There is clearly evidence of a global reach for yield that has pushed the AUD up recently (along with other currencies such as the KRW). However, we see the USD strengthening on a firming…


Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments

BNZ:NZD to remain elevated until traction seen on US, volatility

"The NZD has largely ignored the precipitous decline in dairy prices, instead choosing to focus on NZ’s interest rate advantage. Simply put, carry remains king. On a risk-adjusted basis, the return from a USD-funded carry trade into NZD continues to improve. This will not change until we see some movement towards pricing in US Fed Funds hikes in H1 2015 or a lift in volatility. We’re not counting on either to happen much before September. The Fed is due to update its staff projections then,…


Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 5:57am — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 03.07.2014

Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD/JPY, how low can it go?


 Currently, USD/JPY is positioned at the top on the weekly cloud at 101.40.  A close below this level this week would also hint at further downside potential towards the 100.80 area initially. 

  While USD/JPY could…


Added by Daologic on July 1, 2014 at 9:04am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 01.07.2014

As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 1, 2014 at 5:16am — 2 Comments

USDCHF - Capped by key Average - losses to deepen

A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.

In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…


Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments

BNZ: NZDUSD Buy the dip


Outlook: Buy the dip

ST Resistance: 0.8800 (ahead of 0.8840)

ST Support: 0.8660 (ahead of 0.8610)

NZD/USD continues to grind higher, but closed last week just below the 6 May high of 0.8780. Upward momentum remains intact, with a push through the big figure 0.8800 exposing the post-float high of…


Added by Daologic on June 30, 2014 at 6:38am — No Comments

UBS FX Comment - Dollar Softness Temporary

"The dollar is trading soft into the summer against higher yielding currencies as investors expect the Federal Reserve will continue to keep interest rates unchanged far into 2015. US yields at 2.53% for ten year paper remain well below the 3.00% levels seen at the start of 2014.(...)

Counting Petrodollars, Seeking Risk - and near record low levels of currency market volatility are encouraging investors to use the dollar as a funding currency for carry trades. But the softness in the…


Added by Daologic on June 30, 2014 at 5:39am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 27.06.2014

EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 27, 2014 at 4:56am — 1 Comment

BMO FX Strategy Daily - USDCAD

"USDCAD has drifted lower all morning, following a similar tone in the price action during the Asian session.  This as much reflects the positioning and ‘stop hunt’ pressures we’ve alluded to earlier in the week as it does a generally soft USD.  The deviation of USDCAD from its key drivers is still very sizeable and USDCAD snap back risks are not exactly small here.  But it’s now pretty safe to conclude that…


Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:31pm — 1 Comment

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USD Remains Under Pressure

"The USD is still trying to make up for the ground it lost yesterday following the release of a very disappointing Q1 GDP revision.


Against the backdrop of yesterday's GDP surprising further tumble, even an on consensus PCE core…


Added by Daologic on June 26, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments

EURUSD- Average platforms gains towards 1.3694

The consolidation above the 13 day moving average turned to more significant buying interest yesterday as the average platformed gains. 2 week highs were posted and although almost half of that upside was reversed into the close, the move leaves intraday sentiment more positive. With this underlying tone, but with caution,there is scope for the market to focus on 1.3670 and 1.3694.…


Added by Alan Collins on June 26, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook: USDCAD-Little Changed

"Open 1.0739  Range 1.0738/52  Prev. Close 1.0745

The short term charts suggests a somewhat heavier tone unfolding for USDCAD as our session gets underway; failure to progress much through the mid 1.07s overnight leaves funds looking technically heavy and prone to a…


Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments

RBS:Diverging trends in rates warn against FX complacency


We continue to see downside pressure building on EUR rates and upside pressure for US rates. The sharp fall in Australian rates has narrowed the AUD/USD yield advantage to a low since August last year. It is difficult to get behind a broad rally in Asian currencies, which have so far failed to benefit much from rising risk appetite, but we see scope for MYR outperformance on the recent rise in Malaysian rates. Given the…


Added by Daologic on June 25, 2014 at 7:17am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily:USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

No data today from Canada, and there was another tight range in Asia too, so it looks like another slow day is likely. Key support still lies around the 1.0700 area and it feels like that level should be tested at some point this week. To the topside we would expect to find…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 11:34am — No Comments

RBS:Fundamental case for selling EUR vs USD builds


Further fundamental deterioration of EUR vs. USD evident in lower PMI in Europe and stronger PMI in US (high in the Markit series since 2010). Dovish talk from the ECB continues. There will be several Fed speakers this week, they may be less dovish. GBP event risk starts tonight with BoE parliamentary testimony. The risks are for a pull-back in the GBP, but its yield support, trend and solid global risk appetite suggest…


Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 24.06.2014

EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily: USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

The Canadian data releases last Friday, both Retail Sales and CPI came in well above expectations, and was enough to send USDCAD lower, with the key support at 1.0800 finally giving way. The move through the 200 day MA at 1.0781 seemed to entice further sellers and this…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD

"Still, as the dust settles after the CPI report, this feels a bit like a back to the drawing board moment for us, as long-time CAD bears and we clearly have to lower our sights for the USDCAD outlook in the near-term at least.  The slide back to the low 1.07s in USDCAD tales back about half of the rally seen from September last year—technically, a…


Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:40am — No Comments


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