EUR has made a small upside correction following 1.3370 drop from last week. The pair on Daily, H4 and H1 is bullish, but on other time frames is bearish. So i think that the current recovery is just a small correction and still we have no solid ground below. Such solid support is 1.3300, for nor this seems away below, but we have the ECB meeting this week and soon EUR may become under selling pressure. We have also the PMI, EU retail sales and Germany's factory orders this week too, so it…Continue
Dollar gained much strength these days as FED continues to cut the stimulus program. USD has made significant advance against everything, but it seems that after yesterday's decision it is time for profit taking, so we have some pullback eveywhere. I expect the EUR to try to recover back to 1.3450-65 today or tomorrow. Another dollar push below 1.3375 may take the pair down to 1.3330. There we have a strong support area which is not going to be brokens soon, so you may enter LONG close to…Continue
Following a week of indecisive trading, last week saw a renewal of investor demand. This continued the rally from this month’s low and took USDCAD to the highest levels for 5 weeks. This move was dominated by Friday’s powerful gains and although a failure to break through the 200 day avg or the Marabuzo line created 5 weeks previously concerns, the support offered by the 13 day avg last week, and a move to the top of a rising Keltner channel gives scope for the upside to extend to 1.0857 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 28, 2014 at 7:58am — No Comments
EUR dropped below 1.3450 support and now consolidates inside the main support area between 1.3420 and 1.3450. It is expected the pair to test 1.3400. EUR is bearish on all time frames except Weekly and Monthly. The resistance area is 1.3445-1.3455 and if broken the target will be 1.3475-85. To the downside breaking of 1.3400 may lead to another drop to 1.3300.
GOLD bounced from the Senkous Span B price last week and currently continues recovery above 1294. At the moment of writing the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 28, 2014 at 4:51am — No Comments
EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.
GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments
EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.
The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments
EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…Continue
EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…Continue
EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
A sequence of 2 up weeks ended last week despite initial upside reaching the most positive levels for 6 weeks. This was achieved at the beginning of the week but prices were unable to be sustained above the 200 day moving average and 4 consecutive daily losses were posted into Friday’s close. With the 13 day moving average breached and medium-term signals turning increasingly negative we look for the downside to deepen further.
Potential exists to 1.3477 and even towards 1.3369, a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 7, 2014 at 6:51am — No Comments
A break of 1.3580 may setup a test of the 1.3500 level.
Closing above the 1.3695-1.3705 level may setup a test of…Continue
Added by Futuristic on July 4, 2014 at 4:06pm — No Comments
Today is the ECB meeting and the central bank will have to decide wheather to implement additional tools to stimulate inflation or not. As the price is above 1.3630 EUR/USD is bullish. First target is 1.3725 and the second one is 1.3780, finally 1.3840-50, where a correction to the downside must appear. Bearish scenario is if 1.3630 is broken, first target will be 1.3590-1.3600 support area, if broken next target will be 1.3510-1.3485. Remember that tomorrow US markets will be closed because…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 3, 2014 at 6:16am — No Comments
As expected EUR moved to the upside reaching 1.3700-1.3710 resistance area which bounced back the price on first attempt. This upside recovery may reach some more highs, but i think that by the end of the week we shall have a reversal and drop below 1.3650 again. Currently the price is supported by the 1.3680-1.3670 support area and we are bullish as long as the price is above that support area. My model shows that the upside may even reach 1.3810 on some fundamental news, before the…Continue
A 2nd down week in succession was posted last week but the real story was the weakness of rally attempts. The topside was easily capped by the 13/200 day moving average with the week finishing with increased selling pressure that took USDCHF to the most negative levels traded for 6 weeks.
In addition, strength indicators (RSI) are negative and so we look for this gradual deterioration to deepen in the coming days with potential to .8862, .8825 or even .8776.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 30, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
EUR is creating some artificial volatility while waiting for the end of the month. Soon the summer holidays will start and the volatility will be low.Everybody is now waiting for the end of the month and the next ECB meeting to see wheather mr.Draghi will implement further stimulus. We remain in an ascending channel despite yesterday's spike to the H4 Senkou Span B price of the positive H4 cloud. Of course it was too early to break it lower and the price quickly reversed, but i think big…Continue
The consolidation above the 13 day moving average turned to more significant buying interest yesterday as the average platformed gains. 2 week highs were posted and although almost half of that upside was reversed into the close, the move leaves intraday sentiment more positive. With this underlying tone, but with caution,there is scope for the market to focus on 1.3670 and 1.3694.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 26, 2014 at 6:28am — No Comments
EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments
A 3rd up week in succession was posted in CABLE last week although the scope of the upside was significantly less than the preceding week.
That was due to profit taking attempts above the psychological level of 1.7000, at the highest levels traded since Oct 2008 and with signals for sentiment at overbought extremes.
But although the…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on June 23, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments
EUR finished the week at 1.3600 support after a quick test of 1.3550-60. The price bounced back to the upside and the pair is now bullish on all time frames. This means the recovery will continue and with the help of good PMI and IFO on Monday and Tuesday for EU and Germany the pair may reach easily 1.3750-1.3820. Breaking of 1.3650 will be the signal for this. Downside may be restored only below 1.3540, but for now we are far from that and expected fundamental data is in favor of the EUR.…Continue