A pair had a top on 105.4. From top, we are in larger wave 4. Last drop was impulse drop and can be counted a first wave in zigzag correction – A. There is very less chance of considering that wave as part of larger impulse move i.e. 1 (marked with red color), but having the probability, I keep that in my daily chart. On 240 min chart, price is well between in the channel, and depend on today close, we find reversal pattern on daily chart.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:58am — No Comments
Current price is testing the uptrend channel, also testing the huge support drawn on daily chart. If this support breaks, we can see more downside towards 1.51, or we can possibly see two possibilities
a) Either we see bounce here, to test median and then fall back to 1.51
b) Or, we will see straight up to 1.546 area.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 22, 2013 at 8:22am — No Comments
EUR didn't move upside much on Friday and returned back below 1.3100 as expected. The price has formed an inverted hammer on Daily which is a low reliability bullish continuation candlestick. However after mr.Weidmann's comments the price will remain under downside pressure and any upside will be limited. The upside is limited also by the huge and thick negative Ichimoku above us on Daily. First support comes at 1.3035, then 1.3000 and then 1.2960.
Some investors prefered to take…Continue
I suspecting, wave 4 is not ended still, as wave 2 was shallow, wave 4 would have deep. Also, as soon as 1.5377 hold good, my earlier count is still valid with very low confidence.
As I suspecting possible new move will have another high for wave 4, and possibly test weekly trend line resistance. This move…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 19, 2013 at 1:30pm — No Comments
EUR has been stopped at the resistance 1.3075-85, currently consolidation continues only a break above 1.3100 may increase the upside pressure to test 1.3140 again if that is broken too we may extend to 1.3180-1.3200. Fail at the top or lower will lead to reverse to the south with first target 1.3000 and then 1.2970. Daily MA200 passes through 1.2920 and will be a target if 1.2970 fails to hold the downside. We have a thick Daily negative Ichimoku at 1.3120 so it is very likely to have a…Continue
Westpac - "Underwhelming Chinese data, elevated ECB easing risk and broad weakness across a swathe of commodities all play to a positive narrative for the USD. Dollar Index could see fresh yearly highs on this run. Fedspeak has been admittedly on the dovish side in the past week but the USD has held up well for some months now in the face of open ended asset purchases.
(...) Advance regional PMI data for April likely to emphasize the case for ECB easing. Italy likely to have new…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 18, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
EUR has reversed at the top 1.3200 and created a mirror image falling 200 pips below to 1.3000 with a 50 pips pullback currently. It is expected the pullback to continue to 1.3070. We have been rejected from the negative Icimoku on Daily as expected because it was too early to break it higher, of course with the help of mr.Weidmann, who set the correct path for the market. More about mr.Weidmann statement you may find on forexstreet.com website. The technical outlook is as follows:…Continue
On weekly chart, Aus$ is in the box trading, tested weekly trendline and close below it. Either we completed wave E @ 1.0110 or, we can see one more downside before reverse higher. I will prefer to be sideline and wait to see this range trading. Primary count suggest wave E completed and can see high very soon, with keep that idea in mind, trader should initiated long with stop loss @ 1.0110 and can target on 1.06 as first target.…Continue
Added by FxMind on April 18, 2013 at 3:31am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman -
"- Sweden's Riksbank kept rates steady at 1.0%, as expected
- Bank of England minutes from the April meeting show that the vote for extending QE remained the same as the March meeting
- Bank of Canada holds its policy meeting today and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0%
- The Fed releases the Beige book report for the upcoming April 30/May 1 meeting
- There is keen interest in how Japanese investors are going to respond to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 2:17pm — No Comments
A Chart update, possibly fifth wave start. On alternate, we might see another small high above 1.5406, possibly 1.5460. I will keep below is my primary count and tracking this pair.
Any short on this pair, should trailed down stop loss to 1.5377
Added by FxMind on April 17, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
EUR has made a huge jump higher after Barroso's speech yesterday and progressed from 1.3030 to 1.3200 which makes 170 pips in one day, then closed the day with almost no pullback. We are inside Ichimoku cloud on Daily but it is too early to break it so i think the price will be rejected back to below 1.3100 till the end of this week or in the beginning of the next. The exciting thing is that Cyprus may recieve an additional financial aid, and that inflation in the eurozone decreased further…Continue
EUR has dropped to 1.3021 yesterday, but recovered 60 pips during Asian session, currently is trading around the resistance 1.3075. With the Boston's explosions i may be expected that some investors will run for shelter, and will get rid of risk currencies like EUR, also a bad ZEW data is expected today from Eurozone. It is quite possible the next target for today to be 1.3000 and even below. However on H4 we are facing a huge positive Ichimoku and i think breaking it lower won't succeed. We…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "EUR/USD is also in a technically corrective phase, and is the most difficult major pair to ascertain what it is trading off: risk or rates, buoyed by reserve recycling, or, buffered by EUR cross trades? The next level for EUR/USD shorts is near 1.3150, but this is a pair that is in search of a clearer rationale before positions will be put on in size. Lastly, negative views on commodities are much better played through commodities than commodity currencies that continue to…Continue
EUR was unable to progress above the resistance area 1.3120-40 and reversed to the downside on Friday, but then recovered to 1.3100. With today's opening the same thing repeated and currently the pair trades around the support 1.3070, next support is 1.3050, then 1.3030 and then 1.3000. The final target for today will be 1.2960. Please watch carefully the situation in Korea, as any state of war will make the investors run away from the risk currencies like EUR and to look for a shelter in…Continue
ING Bank - "In terms of the USD, we are comfortable being trapped in the narrative of a cyclically bullish dollar story. As Rob Carnell highlights, the US economy went into government sequestration on a strong footing. We doubt the US soft patch will weigh too heavily on the dollar (given the weak external environment) and a return to 3% growth in 2H13 can see the market credibly start to question the longevity of the Fed’s QE programme. That should move yield spreads move markedly in favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 12, 2013 at 2:04pm — No Comments
EUR has made another upside attempt yesterday it was unsuccessful though we have a new maximum at 1.3737, then a pullback to 1.3086 support zone and finally bounced back above 1.3100. This morning EUR is calm with bullish mood and ready to make another upside test. If we are unable to record a new maximum with the beginning of the american session, the pair is very likely to suffer profit taking and to turn south unhappily. Today we have also the european finance ministers' summit and some…Continue
EUR progress has been capped by the 1.3120 resistance area border as this area is from 1.3120 to 1.3140. However this is not the end of the upside though we are close to it. And for today the upside scenario will prevail says my model. Let me now explain it - on H1 time frame we are inside a thin Ichimoku cloud, of course it it easy to break it lower, but it seems that the market is going to try 1.3120 once more before breaking lower. Indicators at this time frame are neutral and slowly are…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "We don't believe the last few days' EUR/USD squeeze has legs and remain bearish for three reasons.
First , we think the market is under-estimating the dovishness behind last week's ECB press conference. Had it not been for the more than +10% decline in euro Brent prices in recent weeks combined with exceptionally weak domestic price pressures, Draghi's increasing discomfort with the inflation outlook would be of lesser…
EUR has continued its progress to the upside after moving in wide consolidation range between 1.3060 and 1.3004 almost the whole day and at last in mid american session bulls gathered enough power to break the 1.3070 resistance area. But the progress coudn't reach much higher above. Fuel ended ahead of 1.3100. Asian sesion today didn't offer also something new. The price is moving within an extremely narrow range of 10 pips. A retest of 1.3100 may happen at any moment, if we are not able to…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The euro initially climbed back above the 1.30-level following the weaker than expected US employment report erasing its modest decline driven mainly by recent developments in Cyprus. So far evidence of broader contagion to the rest of the euro-zone from developments in Cyprus in the near-term have been limited helping to support the euro. Government bond yields in Italy and Spain have fallen alongside yields in most other major economies following the BoJ’s…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2013 at 8:58am — No Comments