All Blog Posts Tagged 'USD' (1,293)

BMO FX Strategy Daily:USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

No data today from Canada, and there was another tight range in Asia too, so it looks like another slow day is likely. Key support still lies around the 1.0700 area and it feels like that level should be tested at some point this week. To the topside we would expect to find…

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Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 11:34am — No Comments

RBS:Fundamental case for selling EUR vs USD builds

"Viewpoint

Further fundamental deterioration of EUR vs. USD evident in lower PMI in Europe and stronger PMI in US (high in the Markit series since 2010). Dovish talk from the ECB continues. There will be several Fed speakers this week, they may be less dovish. GBP event risk starts tonight with BoE parliamentary testimony. The risks are for a pull-back in the GBP, but its yield support, trend and solid global risk appetite suggest…

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Added by Daologic on June 24, 2014 at 7:06am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 24.06.2014

EUR is continuing consolidation below 1.3600, and yesterday's attempt to break that resistance has failed because of the worse than expected PMI data. Today the IFO data will be released and if it is also worse like yesterday's then the EUR may drop again to 1.3550 or 1.3510. Currently the price is above the H4 negative cloud and going deep below it is not likely. Recovery to the upside will continue once the price is above 1.3600, until that one or several downside tests may appear. Daily…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 24, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments

BMO FX Strategy Daily: USDCAD

"Support 1.0700 Resistance 1.0750

The Canadian data releases last Friday, both Retail Sales and CPI came in well above expectations, and was enough to send USDCAD lower, with the key support at 1.0800 finally giving way. The move through the 200 day MA at 1.0781 seemed to entice further sellers and this…

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Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:45am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook USDCAD

"Still, as the dust settles after the CPI report, this feels a bit like a back to the drawing board moment for us, as long-time CAD bears and we clearly have to lower our sights for the USDCAD outlook in the near-term at least.  The slide back to the low 1.07s in USDCAD tales back about half of the rally seen from September last year—technically, a…

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Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 11:40am — No Comments

GBPUSD: Keltner Channels Guide Prices Higher

A 3rd up week in succession was posted in CABLE last week although the scope of the upside was significantly less than the preceding week.

That was due to profit taking attempts above the psychological level of 1.7000, at the highest levels traded since Oct 2008 and with signals for sentiment at overbought extremes.

But although the…

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Added by Alan Collins on June 23, 2014 at 7:51am — No Comments

RBS:The patience game

" Viewpoint

We would buy USD vs. EUR and JPY even though it feels like a patience trade. As discussed last week, we think the market is underpricing the risk of hikes in the US, whereas policy is likely to generate low rates in the Eurozone and Japan for much longer. The GBP has had a run on higher rate expectations; the risk is that this cools somewhat after the lower-than-expected inflation reported last week and focus on…

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Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 7:04am — No Comments

BNZ: NZDUSD sell the rally

Outlook: Sell the rally

ST Resistance: 0.8780 (ahead of 0.8840)

ST Support: 0.8600 (ahead of 0.8530)

The dovish FOMC meeting was enough to push NZD/USD through 0.8700, but the air appears to be thin up there. Currently struggling to hold above the figure, a push through weak support at 0.8680 will see…

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Added by Daologic on June 23, 2014 at 4:00am — No Comments

FOREX update 22.06.2014

EUR finished the week at 1.3600 support after a quick test of 1.3550-60. The price bounced back to the upside and the pair is now bullish on all time frames. This means the recovery will continue and with the help of good PMI and IFO on Monday and Tuesday for EU and Germany the pair may reach easily 1.3750-1.3820. Breaking of 1.3650 will be the signal for this. Downside may be restored only below 1.3540, but for now we are far from that and expected fundamental data is in favor of the EUR.…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 22, 2014 at 5:54am — 2 Comments

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014

Société Générale's Top 10 forex trade recommendations for the second half of 2014



Here are SocGen's top 10 for the second half of this year. Verbatim.

1- Long USD, NOK and GBP vs CHF, SEK and EUR.

Easy money continues to support risk taking, but the FX carry trade needs to be selective, i.e. avoid trades where valuation is stretched (e.g. risk/reward in NZD/JPY isn't great). This portfolio exploits central bank policy differentiation. An alternative is to be long USD, NOK…

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Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 4:05pm — No Comments

TD:USDCAD Retesting Recent Lows

"Open 1.0818     Range 1.0814/1.0826     Prev. Close 1.0818

Given the persistent heavy tone displayed by funds over the last two weeks, an on-consensus inflation print will most likely take USDCAD…

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Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments

BMO: USDCAD

"Support 1.0800 Resistance 1.0850

Tight ranges again yesterday and overnight, but the market is hovering above the key support near 1.0800, and if we get strong data today we should see a concerted break lower. Crosses look fairly stable for now, with EURCAD sellers seen ahead of 1.4800. 1.4650 remains the key…

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Added by Daologic on June 20, 2014 at 11:27am — No Comments

Rabobank: More of the same

"Last night's FOMC meeting and accompanying press conference managed to address the old question, "What do you give the market who already has everything?": the answer appears to be "more of the same." In short, the Fed managed to navigate through what some had expected to be a potentially tricky announcement by providing further fuel for both equity and Treasury market bulls - quite an achievement given both are already at levels that leave skeptics perplexed; the S&P closed at a new…

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Added by Daologic on June 19, 2014 at 7:31am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 19.06.2014

EUR has made a shy move to the upside following the FED's decision to keep the interest rate unchanged and to continue with reducing stimulus program. This decision was expected and the market was not surprised, so the dollar lost positions against almost everything. However we lack enough power to break through the important 1.3600 resistance. Once above the price will easily go to 1.3660, but for that we need at least one H4 candle closed well above 1.3600. For now the pair seems uncapable…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 19, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments

TD: Morning FX Outlook-USDCAD

"We see USDCAD is being anchored in a tight 1.0830/1.0890 range for the moment.  No change in the Fed’s message today may see the USD slip back to the lower zone of supported noted above but we see no strong incentive to push the USD significantly lower.  We consider USDCAD to be quite significantly undervalued relative to our fair value assessment currently (nearer 1.12).  We still rather think modesty USD losses towards…

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Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 11:39am — No Comments

Rabobank:We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion.

"(...)

We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion. In the accompanying statement we expect substantial revisions of the economic projections of FOMC participants. While the Committee is likely to reduce its GDP forecast for 2014, the expected downward revision of unemployment and upward revision of inflation are likely to lead to a hawkish shift in policy rate projections. After all, if labor market slack has decreased faster…

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Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 7:21am — No Comments

RBS:Moving up and down the curves supports the USD

"As we approach the FOMC minutes we see increasing risk that recent yield rises in the US could filter down the curve and recent yield falls in the Eurozone could filter up the curve. We already see the deep falls in the EUR/USD yield spread as sufficient to support a developing downtrend in the EUR and expect further yield moves to generate a case for a lower EUR. Similarly, we note yield spreads moving in favour of the USD/JPY. There is a range of other distractions that may delay…

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Added by Daologic on June 17, 2014 at 6:00am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 17.06.2014

EUR has made a test of 1.3510 yesterday before reversing to the upside and breaking of the 1.3550 took the price to 1.3580-85 as expected. However we are still below the important for further recovery 1.3600 resistance. Breaking of the 1.3600 may take the price to 1.3650-60 quickly, but there a storng resistance is placed and moving futher to the upside will be very hard. But first we need to break above 1.3600, until that we are bearish.

GOLD didn't reached my thirs target from last…

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Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 17, 2014 at 4:59am — No Comments

BBH: FOMC's subtle change in forward guidance

"When the Federal Reserve meets this week, there is little doubt of the outcome. This deflects investors’ attention from a change in policy to a change in the forward guidance, subtle and otherwise.  The Fed will likely indicate that its highly accommodative stance is still needed.  It seems to want that to be the main take-away.  However, what will likely be evident from the…

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Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 11:22am — No Comments

Rabobank: 17-18 FOMC forecast

"The primary economic focus for the week will be the June 17-18 FOMC. This meeting will include an update of the economic projections and a press conference by Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another $10bn, evenly split between US treasuries and agency MBS. This would reduce the purchases of treasuries in July to $20bn (from$25bn) and the purchases of agency MBS to $15bn (from $20bn). This will bring the total monthly amount of…

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Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments

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