SHORT EUR below 1.2850 SL 1.2860 TP 1.2800-1.2770
LONG EUR above 1.2860 SL 1.2840 TP 1.2905-1.2925-1.2950
SHORT GOLD below 1370 SL 1375 TP 1300-1290
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 20, 2013 at 4:25am — No Comments
EUR has bounced back from the fibo level at 1.2915 and currently is trading around support of 1.2850. We are in a quite interesting technical situation. 1.2850 is a serios support level, breaking below have to take us far more down, breaking above that again will be hard too. Technically breaking of 1.2850 will take us at least 150 pips down to 1.2700, downside may extend even to 1.2620. One of these both has to bounce and the price will reverse to the upside reaching 1.3000 once again…Continue
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s rally from the 1.0014 low last week struggled at the 50% retracement point before the advance resumed and we largely expect a similar pattern of trade as the market stalls around the 76.4% retracement resistance now. A minor consolidation in the market should be followed by renewed gains through the 1.0225 resistance area (intraday pivot as well as retracement resistance). We look for good support intraday to the mid 1.01 area (some risk of a slip back to the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:17pm — No Comments
Another day - another fall, deeper and deeper we go and seems there is no end. First test of 1.2850 was unsuccessful, there was only about 30 pips pullback for now and maybe another test will follow today, breaking of 1.2850 will lead us quickly to 1.2730-1.2700. Weekly indicators are negative and heavily point to the downside with first target 1.2760. Daily indicators show that soon a correction will follow. H4, H1 and smaller frames show that correction is trying to begin. The correction…Continue
Westpac - "USD strength has been a key theme of late. The bulk of its gains however have been posted against a motley bunch of currencies. In the last month USD strength has been concentrated primarily against the likes of AUD, SEK, NZD and CHF. Over the last week JPY, NZD, AUD and CHF have ceded the most ground to the USD. EUR on the other hand, while lower over both the last week and month against the USD, has weathered the USD’s rally comparatively well.
(...) Our longer term…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
BMO Capital Markets - "We foresee at least two powerful factors acting in favour of the USD over the short-run: improving spreads vis-à-vis the rest of the world and reasonably light US capital outflows relative to the middle of the last decade. On the former point, there is every reason to believe that the concurrent economic weakness in Asia and inside of EMU as well as very low rates in general outside of the US will favour US rates over foreign rates. Despite this short-term…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 10:47am — No Comments
J.P. Morgan - "As has occurred about twice a year during the post-Lehman era, a global rates sell-off is ripping through currency markets. Month-to-date, 10-yr Japan is up 11bp, Germany and Australia +13bp, UK +18bp and US +21bp, while the dollar has rallied versus 70% of currencies (exceptions this month have been NOK, CNY, MXN, MYR and PEN). FX correlations, which had fallen to 2.0% multi-year lows in the presence of numerous country-specific events this year, have popped higher, as one of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 10:09am — No Comments
EUR performed a flat consolidation within a narrow range yesterday and tested once again support 1.2940-50 but quickly recovered showing that around 1.2950 there are a lot of buyers. This morning we have a jump higher reaching the MA200 on H4 @ 1.3025. breaking above that MA200 will take us to 1.3070. However further upside today will be difficult and is very possible the price to reverse this afternoon back to 1.3000. Daily and H4 indicators are bullish, smaller too, just H1 is bearish at…Continue
EUR dropped down on Friday as the second test of 1.3190 was unsuccessful. In fact i was expecting a fail a little above and making a double top. Currently EUR has stopped at the 1.2960 support but the downside pressure is still too strong on H4, indicators on H1 show a close recovery to 1.3020 and drop again to 1.2950 at least. The target will be 1.2860 area, where is the diagonal support line starting from in 1.2050. I think it will bounce this time too, so go long close to 1.2860 and…Continue
Rabobank - "We have been arguing over the past month that while the yen should remain on a weakening trend that the upside potential of USD/JPY would be slowed if the market was paring back the size of its USD positions. This view seems to have been upheld in April though yesterday’s break of the psychologically important USD/JPY100 levels has injected fresh life into the currency pair. Over the coming weeks we continue to expect that the tone of the USD will be key in determining the pace…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 2:55pm — No Comments
EUR has made some progress to the upside and the diagonal support line of which i have talked yesterday has done a good job. EUR has reached three of my long targets and now consolidates around the support zone 1.3150-65. It is very likely in the following hours to make another test of 1.3195 and if unsuccessful to reverse back to 1.3130. Please note that any drop below 1.3085 will take us quickly to 1.3000 and maybe below. For now 1.3130 serves as a good support so you may enter LONG there…Continue
EUR has made another attempt to go higher,but not successful and finally continues consolidation from the beginning of the week. We have a diagonal support line starting from 23 april 2013 which caps any downside for now.breaking below will take us at least 100 pips down. All indicators on almost all time frames are going flat. We are failing to break the 1.3000 level for over a month and any break will take us below for a continuous period too. However as long as we are above the upside is…Continue
EUR consolidated almost the whole day yesterday and later through the american session it dropped to 1.3053 with a 25 pips pullback then stablilized around 1.3080. Currently the EUR is in another consolidation and is slowly heading towards 1.3100. At 1.3115 we have a fibo level and if the price breaks it higher the move to the north will continue with first target 1.3150 then 1.3185 and then 1.3230. On Daily chart we are deeply inside a negative ichimoku and if we have any upside move it…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "Spring time trends in 2010, 2011 and 2012 were partly the result of bouts of risk aversion triggered by seasonal data weakness and Eurozone blow-ups. However, monetary policy divergence also played an important role, with the distance between the highest short-term interest rate and the lowest in G10 rising significantly, in line with currency trends. At the time of writing, there is scant evidence of this phenomenon so far, but we think this will change. Firstly, deflation…Continue
GBPUSD is moving short rang ascending channel. Currently testing upper trend line and resistance zone. With repeated r ejection from current zone it is anticipated that price will move for a corrective move from current zone. Break out of current resistance zone will provide short term Short Setup.
Outlook – Short
Short Entry (1.55830 - 1.55435)
TP 1 - 1.55050
TP 2 - 1.53982
Added by Sardar Uddin on May 5, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments
EUR dropped sharply yesterday as the ECB cut the rate. We are moving inside the negative Ichimoku on Daily and more slide is expected in the following days to the bottom of that cloud. Today's resistance will be the fibo level of 1.3115 and the target will be the supports 1.3030-1.3000-1.2980-1.2950. Bears are in full control, today the most important news will be the NFP. The expectations are for 145k, which is a lot better than previous 88k. Any higher value will lead to another dollar…Continue
Westpac - "Dollar Index survived a test of important support around 81.40/50 as USD’s safe haven status came to the fore. But if the dollar trades the employment report as a growth currency, it could be in some trouble as the risks look to be for another sub-consensus reading. Then we have the post-NFP data lull. We will retain our 83 one month target for now but suspect achieving this will be heavily reliant on EUR weakness.
(...) Eurozone bond markets are pricing in a great deal of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "We think there's one EUR driver that matters and two that don't in coming months. We don't think ongoing strength in Euro peripheral fixed income matters.
(...) We don't think a potential ECB refi cut today matters much either.
(...) In contrast to the above, we do think Eurozone disinflation risks (and how the ECB responds) matter. The ECB primary mandate has fallen out of focus in recent years, best reflected in the steadily declining mention of "price stability"…