All Blog Posts Tagged 'USD' (984)

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 19.06.2013

Better than expected ZEW for Germany, helped EUR a lot to make a new top at 1.3415, but it is necessary to say that the EUR tested the support at 1.3330 several times yesterday. This means that 1.3320-30 area is now a very important area and if it is broken to the downside that will mean another 150 pips down. On Daily we can see the high price level consolidation and that we are closer and closer to a correction lower.Usually consolidations like this one end up with a big bearish candle of…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 19, 2013 at 4:26am — No Comments

Goldman Sachs - Expect broad Dollar weakness

Goldman Sachs - "Our core view over the medium and longer term is to expect broad Dollar weakness. This is due to the large structural deficits in the balance of payments and government budget that are likely to persist, and the easy monetary policy stance of the Fed. Despite recent speculation that the Fed is close to ‘tapering’ its asset purchases, in our view the Fed will announce the reduction of the rate of monthly asset purchases in December 2013, after which we expect the purchases to…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 2:25pm — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 18.06.2013

Unfortunately the high price consolidation continued the whole day yesterday, reaching again 1.3380 area. Now EUR trades around the 1.3350 ahead of Germany's ZEW today which is expected to be better than previous. But the market will wait for the US economic releases to make the move higher, maybe this will happen through the late american session. Seems that the market is fully controlled by the bulls and they  are strong enough to move the price to 1.3450, if not today, then after the…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 18, 2013 at 5:19am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 17.06.2013

After failing to record a new top, the EUR turned south with today's open and currently is trading at the support area 1.3320-30. I expect to break below 1.3300 today and to reach 1.3250-60 support area. Breaking below that last will be hard as we already know there are many buyers in that area. But if broken somehow the price may drop even to 1.3100. Today's supports are 1.3260 and 1.3210, resistances are 1.3360 and 1.3390. Today there aren't so significant econimic news so we shall have a…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 17, 2013 at 5:13am — 1 Comment

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 14.06.2013

It was a volatile Thursday with going up and down and up and down again this morning. Seems that upside is limited by the 1.3400 resistance area, but also we can note the fact that below 1.3300 the pair finds buyers. What i expect is that EUR will perform a high price area consolidation between 1.3330 and 1.3400 and will close today within this area, except if the nerves of any big player on the market are not strong enough to leave the LONG EUR through the's good to know that second… Continue

Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 14, 2013 at 5:27am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 13.06.2013

EUR has continued the rally with no correction despite my expectations. The price is too far above the Ichimoku clouds, but seems that noone cares about that fact. Dollar is weaker and weaker across the board and allowed to close yesterday above 1.3330. That opened tha way for testing 1.3400 today or tomorrow. EUR gains again because of the news form the USA, not because of the good things in Europe. The problems in EU economy still persist and have no an effective solution, the unemployment…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 13, 2013 at 4:38am — No Comments

HSBC - EUR resilient, but this is not a EUR bull market

HSBC - "The USD is in the midst of a powerful rally, slightly obscured by the USD’s lacklustre performance against the EUR. An excessive fixation on EUR-USD as the bellwether of USD fortunes is misleading. In reality, the USD is gaining against nearly all world currencies (chart 1). This USD bull move is the combination of currency wars, tapering, a China slowdown, and the competitive advantage the US may have due to shale gas. The resilience of the EUR to the wider USD rally is a rare…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 12, 2013 at 8:44am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 12.06.2013

After some hesitation around 1.3280 EUR went to test the 1.3230 support from where reversed quickly and was able to close the day above 1.3300, reaching the top of 1.3316 in the late american session. EUR is still trading with an extremely low volatility since yesterday's close, waiting for the economic data releases today. The 1.3320-30 area is a pivot area and any H4 close above that will be a signal for another upside move to 1.3400 and above. However i do not think that 1.3330 will be…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 12, 2013 at 4:34am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 11.06.2013

Yesterday i was talking about a developing 'flag' formation - today his formation is real. Now the target is 1.3310 and then 1.3350. Going above the last will be hard if we reach there. I think it will be good to enter SHORT at any price above 1.3300, there is a great possibility of false break of 1.3310. Weekly target is set at 1.3450 where is the SMA200, monthly target is between 1.3450 and 1.3500. On smaller time frames any fail at 1.3300 will reverse the price back to 1.3230 then to…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 11, 2013 at 4:33am — 2 Comments

BBH - We anticipate a recovery in the dollar into a new trading range

Brown Brothers Harriman - "Last week, we warned that although the technical factors looked constructive for the dollar, the fundamentals, in the form of the ECB not delivering on the negative deposit rate (that Draghi said he had an open mind about) and additional aid for small and medium size businesses, were less supportive. We also anticipated that the jobs data would not support notions from some Fed officials (and market participants) that tapering of the purchases of long-term assets…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:57am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 10.06.2013

After reaching 1.3305 on Thursday the EUR was unable to record a new high, even it didn't give a try to, some partly profit taking took part on Friday. If we manage today to stay above 1.3200 and to test 1.3250-80 again it is possible to make a flag formation which will open the way above 1.3300 level but i doubt that this scenario has a future. On Daily the nearest support is below 1.3100 and breaking below 1.3200 will increase bearish pressure to 1.3100 and even below. However 1.3050-60 is…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 10, 2013 at 4:27am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 07.06.2013

EUR has made a sharp upside move reaching 1.3305 and then pullbacked to 1.3226, all LONG EUR target for yesterday have been hit, i hope you have made some good pips. Today there will be plenty of important data for Germany and NFP from USA. If the data from Germany is bad the market will wait for the NFM doing nothing until the NFP release. If the Germany's data is good EUR will progress more to 1.3300 again ready to jump above. Please note that we are already too far from the Ichimoku on…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 7, 2013 at 4:54am — 3 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 06.06.2013

Another day of consolidation has passed with the price movements just below 1.3100 level. This morning the price is managing to break the 1.3100 resistance but i think that somewhere around 1.3120-30 there will be a reversal and profit taking. Investors will run out of the market waiting for the keywords in Mr.Draghi's speech. If we take a look at the H4 any drop below 1.3060 will take us back to 1.3000 again. Of course a drop to 1.2950 is possible too but this depends on what will focus…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 6, 2013 at 4:53am — 8 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 05.06.2013

EUR has been consolidating yesterday with tiny moves in range between 1.3050 and 1.3100. This morning the price continues to maintain the bullish tone and currently is just below the 1.3100 level. On Daily we are trying to escape the negative Ichimoku and the battle is with the Senkou Span B. Breaking above will turn that into a support. We have the MA200 passing through 1.3030 on Daily, so buying there is a good idea, because the market is waiting for mr.Draghi's speech. I think that there…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 5, 2013 at 4:37am — 3 Comments

BMO Capital Markets - Reloading USD Longs in USDCAD sub 1.0300 & USDJPY with a 99.00 handle

BMO Capital Markets - "Yesterday’s rise in USD/JPY implied volatility is of interest, particularly the moves at the very front-end of the curve. On balance, this development has left us questioning whether or not FX markets are signaling that an important re-pricing of Fed tapering expectations through USD/JPY is in the works. Even sub-100.00, USD/JPY still reflects a decent degree of “overshoot” relative to where interest rate spreads alone dictate the pair should trade (for instance, the…


Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 10:47am — No Comments

USDJPY Could Turn Bullish From 98.85-Elliott Wave

USDJPY extended its weakness yesterday towards 100.00 psychological level and even 99.00 that we have been focusing on in our past updates. Well, we anticipated a larger impulsive drop in black wave 3, but notice that pair is now reversing sharply from the lower side of a trading channel. This is usually the first sign that whole pull-back is corrective. With that in mind, its better to stay aside now and wait on possible break through the upper side of a trading channel that would put…


Added by Gregor Horvat on June 4, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 04.06.2013

EUR reversed yesterday on bad ISM data from the USA and later in the day reached 1.3107 with some 30 pips pullback. We have closed the day just above the support zone 1.3050-65. Now we have even stronger support line at 1.3025 where MA200 passes. Daily indicators are turning bullish so it's quite possible after testing 1.3030 again to break the 1.3115 resistance and to reach 1.3190. Lower good support 1.2960 will cap any downside, except in a case that mr.Draghi says something surprising and…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 4, 2013 at 5:01am — 2 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 03.06.2013

EUR didn't test 1.3060-80 on Friday and with the beginning of the EU session the profit taking started. This process has taken the price down to 1.2950 support again, where the pair found some buyers. Currently we are in attempt to break above the MA200 on H4 as the first attempt was unsuccessful. Immediate resistance comes at 1.3030, breaking above 1.3050 will take us to 1.3090-1.3105 where is the next resistance. However the situation is pretty unstable and on another unsuccessful attempt…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on June 3, 2013 at 4:55am — 5 Comments

EUR/USD & GOLD forecast 31.05.2013

EUR gained above 1.3000 level yesterday as expected however it coudn't break over 1.3050. Currently EUR is trading around the support 1.3030. Maybe after some hesitation around 1.3030 EUR will test 1.3060-75 area. I expect a failiure there or a little above if reached. It's a good idea to SHORT EUR ahead of 1.3100. We have immediate support @ 1.3020 and then @ 1.3000. You may enter LONG at these levels for 1.3065-80 and then to reverse your position. If you take a look at the H4 frame you…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 31, 2013 at 4:52am — 2 Comments

Deutsche Bank - Are you really ready for a once-in-a-generation move in the USD?

Deutsche Bank - "We believe the market remains under-positioned for what we expect to be a once-in-a-generation move in the USD over the course of the year, as well as big moves in rates.

First, real yield differentials between the US and the rest of the world have already turned, suggesting the US trade-weighted dollar should be at least 7% higher from current levels.

(...) Second, the market continues to be too complacent on the US rates path, particularly in the short-end. One…


Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 1:54pm — 3 Comments


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