"Net implied USD long positions increased modestly over the previous week, with speculative longs now above 35% of open interest. The most significant change observed over the week was in CHF whose speculative position turned net short for the first time in five months from 11% of open interest to -7%. The TFF report showed that leverage funds pared their long positions, while…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 20, 2014 at 10:51am — No Comments
"-IMM positioning data reflect investors warming to the USD a little more overall. The net long USD position rose to an aggregated total equal to USD 21.3bn in the week through January 14th, today’s CFTC data showed. That’s the biggest net long exposure to the USD since July last year.
Added by Daologic on January 20, 2014 at 7:38am — No Comments
EUR has dropped finally below 1.3550 and this morning has made an attempt to test 1.3510, however bearish power is not enough to break the solid 1.3500 support area. On H4 frame we have a huge empty space between the current price level and the negative Ichimoku. So i expect some little pullback to take place today, for example to 1.3540-45. Today is Martin Luter's day in the USA and the markets there will remain closed. There is some not so important news from Europe today which is likely…Continue
Better days for the dollar?
The USD may have been thrown a curve ball by the release of the weaker than expected US…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 17, 2014 at 11:00am — No Comments
After yesterday's 'tennis' day EUR has finally stabilized above 1.3600 level and still preserves chances to break higher the and to return inside the 'triangle'. However for this the necessary condition is to close the day above 1.3630. If this doesn't happen today, then we may assume that the trend reversal has started and that next target will be around 1.3500 and below. During the Asian session EUR price moves are extremely small so uncertainty continues. I am still confused and cannot…Continue
As expected the EUR tested 1.3580-1.3600 support zone then a small pullback appeared to 1.3620 area. For now the EUR stays inside the negative Ichimoku and keeps the chances of breaking it higher, but yesterday's move may be an early signal for a huge downside move ahead. For now immediate resistance is 1.3632. If we break through it next target will be around 1.3670-75. A fail there will result into reversal and the target will be set at 1.3540-20 area or even below 1.3500. At the moment of…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 16, 2014 at 6:54am — No Comments
This week’s signals for temporary gains have been confirmed with Monday’s strong 1 Big Fig gain and new 4 week high at .9087. The end to a sequence of higher daily lows generated a short position on Tuesday and with no sign that the deterioration is ending there is potential for .8865/75 area.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 15, 2014 at 7:41am — No Comments
As i have said yesterday on fail breaking 1.3700 the price will drop down to test the supports at 1.3580-1.3600. Currently 1.3630 intermediate is holding the asian bears, but breaking below is a matter of time. To restore the upside we need a H4 close above 1.3670 and i do not see this to happen today. So it is good to sell below 1.3650, however we are some 15-20 pips below that. I hope for some pullback to enter Short. Breaking below 1.3610 may destroy the whole upside recovery picture if…Continue
"FX Set-up: Still USD-positive, Watch Retail Sales
US yields edged lower through much of yesterday’s sessions but 10-year bond yields have—so far—steadier around the 2.80/82% area or near the spike lows…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 14, 2014 at 1:09pm — No Comments
Today you may use my yesterday's forecast levels because it was a very calm day as no important news in calendar. We have the retail sales in the USA to be released with the american session opening and if the value equals or is worse than expected this may support the EUR and to test 1.3720 area. On H4 we are supported by the Senkou span A of the negative Ichimoku and tomorrow, if today's test of 1.3700 is not successful, to test the support at 1.3600-1.3580. Somewhere around these levels…Continue
Goldman Sachs - "US Dollar FX Forecasts: We maintain our EUR/$ forecasts at 1.38, 1.40 and 1.40 in 3, 6 and 12 months and revise our $/¥ forecasts to 103, 107, 110 from 98, 103 and 107 in 3, 6 and 12 months respectively. Current GSDEER for EUR/$: 1.19; $/¥: 103.9.
Motivation for Our FX View: The continued deficits in the US balance of payments and government budget, combined with accommodative monetary policy, will likely keep the trade-weighted Dollar…
Added by Francesc Riverola on January 13, 2014 at 10:36am — No Comments
Buying interest reasserted last week. This resulted in a 3rd up week from the last 4 and maintained the positive tone reflected by a rising Keltner channel. The preceding week’s entire losses were regained after initial downside, and a strong setback Friday, attracted demand below the 13 day moving average. The volatility means that sentiment cannot be assessed as strong but our call is Cautiously Bullish with potential to 1.6566 and 1.6603.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on January 13, 2014 at 8:42am — No Comments
EUR finally is safe inside the 'triangle' formation, far away from the Senkou Span A following the very disappointing data from the USA last Friday. This means that FED will not taper again until March , and then is also uncertain. This means a generalized dollar weakness will present, as we shall continue to move inside the triangle in the following weeks. Once above 1.3720 the upside will be fully restored and the target will be set at 1.3830 and possibly to a new top. Whether we shall…Continue
The US payrolls report determined most currency’s fates at the end of last week. The softer than-expected outcome (74k vs. 197k expected) resulted in a knee-jerk fall in the USD index. The data was probably a bit of a rogue number, largely explained by unseasonably severe winter weather last month. Still the market’s response was abrupt. The NZD benefitted along with most of its peers.
The NZD/USD is also supported by buoyant risk appetite induced by speculation the…
Added by Daologic on January 13, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments
BULLISH ABOVE 1.3685
BEARISH BELOW 1.3650…Continue
Added by Futuristic on January 12, 2014 at 6:45pm — No Comments
"After posting a significant net M&A outflow of nearly USD -50bn in 2013, the US has begun the New Year with inflows accelerating sharply. They reached nearly USD 12bn over the last month alone. In contrast, M&A outflows appear to be picking up again out of Japan, with nearly USD 10bn of outflows seen in the last three months, nearly a third of all of 2013’s outflows. While…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 10, 2014 at 7:36am — No Comments
EUR dropped seriously minutes after mr.Draghi's speech, but the downside pressure wasn't enought to break the 1.3550 support and as usual the negative Ichimoku did well his job. We are now back into the 'triangle' supported by 1.3600 level and for now far enough from the important 1.3550. From now on our target will be 1.3665 and 1.3686 then 1.3780. We are approaching the positive Ichimoku slope which is going to elevate the price along its slope and after that move we shall start watching…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 10, 2014 at 6:13am — No Comments
"While the fear of making a policy error was at the core of the Fed’s decision to take a pass on tapering in September, the minutes of the December FOMC meeting yesterday showed a Fed that has become more confident in the sustainability of the economic recovery. However, it also showed that the decision to taper QE3 purchases was driven in part…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 9, 2014 at 8:41am — No Comments
"EURUSD NEUTRAL With the momentum falling, our support focus is at 1.3524. A close below which would be a bearish development, opening the way to 1.3458. Resistance is at 1.3656.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair is resuming its strength bringing our focus on critical resistance at 105.75. A close above which would trigger further acceleration to 110.74. Support is at 103.91 ahead of 103.09.
GBPUSD BULLISH While support holds at 1.6317, there's scope for more upside. Resistance is at 1.6502…
Added by Daologic on January 9, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments