EUR moved in a 40 pips range yesterday despite the bad US data. Any upside will be limited by the 1.3570-80 resistance area, and the market is very cautious to buy or sell ahead of the ECB rate decision later this week. Today we are going to stay in range between 1.3480 and 1.3550. Use the upside moves to sell and place SL. The pair is prepairing to test 1.3300 but this will happen after the ECB. Today there is no so important economic data, so breaking of the range is not…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 4, 2014 at 5:55am — No Comments
"Dollar Poised for Additional Gains
The US dollar is poised to extend its gains against most of the major currencies in the week ahead. The Japanese yen is the main exception. A combination of equity market weakness, the smaller US interest…
This year has begun with a volatility evidenced by last week's decline – a move that reversed the preceding week's direction for a 7th consecutive time. However while this price action means sentiment is more difficult to assess, this latest decline took EURUSD to 2 month lows, reversed the prior week’s entire rise and closed below the Ichimoku Cloud, the 13 day and 100 day mvg avgs.
So we look for the downside to remain the focus with potential while below 1.3609 to 1.3400 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 3, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
A week full of important economic data is ahead and we still cannot see any pullback in the EUR/USD pair, it is heavy bearish and still noone even thinks of profit taking. However it maybe influenced quite soon by the PMI data for Germany and USA which will be released today. If bad for Germany and good for the USA the dollar may even push the EUR further down to 1.3440 or 1.3390 where is the SMA200 line support. Ahead of it we are coing to make a significant correction higher to 1.3550 for…Continue
"USD and JPY finding support
The volatility in EM currencies may have calmed a little but there is still plenty of reason for…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 31, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments
The EUR dropped yesterday following the FED's decision on Wednesday and the failed attempt to reach 1.3700 again. The downside move was without any pullback, but not so strong and so sharp. We have finished the day below the positive Ichimoku, which determines the bearish tone for today too. On H4 indicators are heavy bearish however something seems not quite righr with breaking the Ichimoku clouds, and this is the reason for most of the players to be carefull and to watch for a quick…Continue
"FX Set-up: Fed Taper Is USD-Positive... ish
The Fed did what it was expected of it (and, arguably, required of it under its mandate) and reduced asset purchases by a further USD10 bn/month at yesterday’s…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 30, 2014 at 12:29pm — No Comments
"Central banks credibility
The FOMC kept its sights firmly on its statutory mandate this week. In line with its expectation that…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 30, 2014 at 10:33am — No Comments
FED's decision has totally freezed the market, the decision was as expected and EUR/USD showed no reaction at all. We had a false break of 1.3640-50 area yesterday, and currently the EUR is trading into this area. The situation is quite difficult to forecast, for now the pair moves with a bearis tone and this is since the beginning of the week. At H1 and H4 the pair is going to make some correction to the upside. but seems lacks enough power even to test the 1.3700. H4 also shows we may test…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on January 30, 2014 at 6:08am — No Comments
"A question of when, not if.
There has not been a policy rate adjustment in New Zealand since March 2011, when a 50bp ‘insurance cut’ followed in the wake of the Canterbury earthquake.
A lot has changed since, and the case for a rate hike in the coming weeks seems compelling: CPI is moving back to target and rising fast; business confidence is running high; the terms of trade are still elevated. House prices continue to boom too, despite cooling measures introduced in October – and…
Added by Daologic on January 29, 2014 at 7:24am — No Comments
EUR still is above the support 1.3640-50 as yesterday it made unsuccessful attempt to break lower. However it lacks enough power to even reach 1.3700. Currently EUR is waiting for the FED's decision on tapering program, all are expecting FED to taper again and EUR to drop. And here is the major problem, all are expecting the EUR to drop- and the surprise element is missing which is bad. This fact could make the EUR to drop quickly and when all open SHORT positions, the big players will show…Continue
"Will EM Hawks Save the Day?
There seems to be a concerted tightening trend underway in the more fragile EM countries brought about by the strong selloff reality check. The central banks of Brazil, India and (we expect) Turkey have shifted…
Added by Daologic on January 28, 2014 at 1:27pm — No Comments
Germany's IFO data yesterday came out better than expected, although the difference was not so big to make some serious EUR move, and the pair has reached only to 1.3716. Then it slided back to the support line at 1.3653. The price is locked in range ahead of FED's decision tomorrow, when i expect some huge volatility. For now the price seems well supported by the 1.3640-50 support zone and today i will try long above that. Weekly indicators are bullish, Daily and H4 are mixed but will turn…Continue
"EM currencies have come under increasing pressure last week on the back of weak HSBC China PMI, a 2.6% drop in S&P 500, local factors, and some contagion from Argentina. The key highlight this week is the FOMC announcement, where, in Bernanke’s last meeting, we expect bond purchases to be tapered further to $65bn/mth.…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 28, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments
After Friday's massacre market opened calmly this morning. EUR didn't make any change since opening, the price is well supported on H4 and on H1. Daily shows possible bullish continuation and maybe forming a 'flag' formation before the next upside push. The pair succeeded to close above the important 1.3660-70 area where is the SMA200, so only H4 close below is going to destroy the bullish outlook. Something very interesting is that the next support is just below the first - it is 1.3640-50,…Continue
EUR surged higher back into the 'triangle' following the much better than expected economic data from the EU. Markets are optimistic and risk appetite grows with every minute. Dollar fell across the board against amlost all major pairs including GOLD. Despite reaching an extremely overbought areas EUR/USD still shows no signs of correction and is going to close anothe H4 bar just below 1.3700 level. It is quite possible to make a test of 1.3720-40 area and to make a quick pullback below…Continue
"EUR difficult to judge and may be flow driven to extremes
EUR/USD gains were surprisingly strong on Thursday, rising 1.1% against the USD, matching gains in the JPY, although not as strong as the CHF (up 1.6%), and out-pacing the GBP (up 0.4%), retracing ground lost against the GBP on Wednesday after the surprisingly strong UK employment data and less dovish than expected BoE MPC minutes.
The EUR was supported…
Added by Daologic on January 24, 2014 at 4:16am — No Comments
"US yields lower not exhibiting strong confidence in sustained above trend growth
Sizeable falls in US yields on Thursday; 2yr yields down 4bp and 10 yrs down 9bp, 2yr swap rates down around 3bp.
Economic reports in the US were mostly softer than expected; Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index, designed to gauge overall economic activity, dipped from +0.69 to +0.16 in Dec. Positive values indicate above trend growth,…
Added by Daologic on January 24, 2014 at 4:12am — No Comments
Unable to extend Tuesday's setback from 9 week highs, renewed demand was seen yesterday. While the net upside was limited prices are supported by the Ichimoku Cloud and the 13 day moving average.
In addition the 'golden' cross of the 13 & 100 day averages confirms a trending market with potential for the upside to retest this week's .9156 top and even towards .9192 in the coming days.…
Added by Alan Collins on January 23, 2014 at 6:59am — No Comments
No correction in USDCAD and the sharp advance in the market this morning to the mid 1.10 area attains the short-term bull target we have outlined here recently and keeps the market on track for an extended rally to the upper 1.12 area—the measured move target from the mid-January bull triangle…Continue
Added by Daologic on January 23, 2014 at 6:01am — No Comments