GBPUSD is moving short rang ascending channel. Currently testing upper trend line and resistance zone. With repeated r ejection from current zone it is anticipated that price will move for a corrective move from current zone. Break out of current resistance zone will provide short term Short Setup.
Outlook – Short
Short Entry (1.55830 - 1.55435)
TP 1 - 1.55050
TP 2 - 1.53982
Added by Sardar Uddin on May 5, 2013 at 10:25pm — No Comments
EUR dropped sharply yesterday as the ECB cut the rate. We are moving inside the negative Ichimoku on Daily and more slide is expected in the following days to the bottom of that cloud. Today's resistance will be the fibo level of 1.3115 and the target will be the supports 1.3030-1.3000-1.2980-1.2950. Bears are in full control, today the most important news will be the NFP. The expectations are for 145k, which is a lot better than previous 88k. Any higher value will lead to another dollar…Continue
Westpac - "Dollar Index survived a test of important support around 81.40/50 as USD’s safe haven status came to the fore. But if the dollar trades the employment report as a growth currency, it could be in some trouble as the risks look to be for another sub-consensus reading. Then we have the post-NFP data lull. We will retain our 83 one month target for now but suspect achieving this will be heavily reliant on EUR weakness.
(...) Eurozone bond markets are pricing in a great deal of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 2, 2013 at 1:27pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "We think there's one EUR driver that matters and two that don't in coming months. We don't think ongoing strength in Euro peripheral fixed income matters.
(...) We don't think a potential ECB refi cut today matters much either.
(...) In contrast to the above, we do think Eurozone disinflation risks (and how the ECB responds) matter. The ECB primary mandate has fallen out of focus in recent years, best reflected in the steadily declining mention of "price stability"…
EUR gained on bad US data and non-surprising FOMC yesterday reaching 1.3242 resistance, then bounced from there and reversed nearly 70 pips forming a pin on Daily. Currently the pair is trading around 1.3170 with immediate support area 1.3150-1.3160. This will be the start point for another push to the upside later today. Many analysts think that today ECB will do a rate cut. The key is the mr.Draghi's speech. If the ECB cuts today and mr.Draghi says that this will be it and no further cuts…Continue
EUR bounced yesterday from support at 1.3050 and reached the resistance area around 1.3175-85 where the upside move stopped. Currently we are in a flag formation and upside is going to continue to 1.3265 but a retracement to 1.3120 is possible. So my advice is to go long with a tight stop and if SL is hit to reenter at lower support level. It is quite possible the market to cosume the good news from mr.Draghi in advance and at the end of the week to have a big drop. And if not this then next…Continue
EUR progressed to the upside yesterday but the move stopped ahead of 1.3120 and the price returned below 1.3100 then entered in a stand-by mode. Currently the pair is vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3060 and to 1.3030-40 later today and this will be the expected false Ichimoku breakout about i have talked yesterday. Use any drop to 1.3030 to enter LONG at a better price, because in some 48-56 h from the time of writing i expect the upside to be renewed with target above 1.3200. Please note…Continue
EUR performed a low volatility day on Friday and started today with move to the upside, the price is currently stopped at the resistance 1.3050, support is 1.3030 below which we risk another test of 1.2970. If broken 1.2970 then we may go to 1.2905 and below, so watch for confirmation candle on H4 close. On H4 there is a negative Ichimoku beginning to form, so it's very likely to have a false break higher today if any at all, and then the price will trun south. Some weak data from Spain and…Continue
EUR has reversed yesterday's upside after US jobless claims release and dropped almost 90 pips, however 1.3000 has stopped further downside and the price bounced to the well known support 1.3030. So we were unable to determine direction yesterday and despite the volatility we ar at the same place where we were yesterday. For today i expect another upside attempt with target 1.3140 and bounce back to 1.3100 or a little below that. A daily close above 1.3090 will open the way to 1.3250 next…Continue
EUR has tested 1.2950 yesterday in a quick spike down move. However seems the pair is not ready to dive below 1.2950 as buyers appear ahead of 1.2960-50. Currently EUR trades around 1.3040 resistance zone, with immediate support at 1.3030 and resistance at 1.3060. Today the most possible scenario will be LONG EUR above 1.3030. The problem is that we have no any good nesw to support the EUR or bad news to weaken the dollar. Area below 1.3100 is heavy saturated with resistances each of them…Continue
EUR reversed yesterday'supside move after the worse PMI data and dropped 100 pips in one hour. However 1.2970 capped further downside and the pair is currently trading around 1.3000 level. The outlook for the pair is bearish. All indicators are unhappy and watch the ground and the ground is around 1.2880 and the last support is 1.2960-70. Sell on breaking below that with target 1.2880. There are too much resistances to the upside and any upside move will be capped below 1.3040. Only above…Continue
EUR continued consolidation started on Friday. It is difficult to determine direction as H1 and H4 indicators are flat. On H4 we are trying to break the positive Ichimoku and we are very close to Senkou Span B, but i think it is too early for breaking it. We have a support at 1.3000-1.3005-10, i also think that we need another test of 1.31 before going donw to 1.3000 and below. You may go LONG only above 1.3140, below that resistance the pair is going south as i have said already the first…Continue
TD Securities - "USD/CAD is breaking out of the consolidation pattern that trapped the market in a tight range through the latter part of last week (above 1.0250/55) with a little more intent. Initial gains were capped in the 1.0270 area but the push higher seen so far today should see USD/CAD make minor new highs (above 1.0291) at least near-term. We rather think that the move implies scope for a push beyond the recent 1.0341 peak. We spot short-term support now at 1.0270 intraday, stronger…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 6:09pm — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "Though sentiment may appear to be positive towards the US and the dollar, actual flows, positioning and views imply the opposite. Our dbSelect positioning indicator shows investors are short dollars. These short positions are larger than those seen in the euro, where investors are close to their smallest shorts in a year. Consensus analyst forecasts show a close-to-unchanged dollar profile against the majors this year and beyond.
Perhaps more importantly, when we look at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 11:20am — No Comments
EUR didn't move upside much on Friday and returned back below 1.3100 as expected. The price has formed an inverted hammer on Daily which is a low reliability bullish continuation candlestick. However after mr.Weidmann's comments the price will remain under downside pressure and any upside will be limited. The upside is limited also by the huge and thick negative Ichimoku above us on Daily. First support comes at 1.3035, then 1.3000 and then 1.2960.
Some investors prefered to take…Continue
EUR has been stopped at the resistance 1.3075-85, currently consolidation continues only a break above 1.3100 may increase the upside pressure to test 1.3140 again if that is broken too we may extend to 1.3180-1.3200. Fail at the top or lower will lead to reverse to the south with first target 1.3000 and then 1.2970. Daily MA200 passes through 1.2920 and will be a target if 1.2970 fails to hold the downside. We have a thick Daily negative Ichimoku at 1.3120 so it is very likely to have a…Continue
Westpac - "Underwhelming Chinese data, elevated ECB easing risk and broad weakness across a swathe of commodities all play to a positive narrative for the USD. Dollar Index could see fresh yearly highs on this run. Fedspeak has been admittedly on the dovish side in the past week but the USD has held up well for some months now in the face of open ended asset purchases.
(...) Advance regional PMI data for April likely to emphasize the case for ECB easing. Italy likely to have new…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 18, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
EUR has reversed at the top 1.3200 and created a mirror image falling 200 pips below to 1.3000 with a 50 pips pullback currently. It is expected the pullback to continue to 1.3070. We have been rejected from the negative Icimoku on Daily as expected because it was too early to break it higher, of course with the help of mr.Weidmann, who set the correct path for the market. More about mr.Weidmann statement you may find on forexstreet.com website. The technical outlook is as follows:…Continue
Brown Brothers Harriman -
"- Sweden's Riksbank kept rates steady at 1.0%, as expected
- Bank of England minutes from the April meeting show that the vote for extending QE remained the same as the March meeting
- Bank of Canada holds its policy meeting today and is expected to keep rates steady at 1.0%
- The Fed releases the Beige book report for the upcoming April 30/May 1 meeting
- There is keen interest in how Japanese investors are going to respond to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 2:17pm — No Comments
EUR has made a huge jump higher after Barroso's speech yesterday and progressed from 1.3030 to 1.3200 which makes 170 pips in one day, then closed the day with almost no pullback. We are inside Ichimoku cloud on Daily but it is too early to break it so i think the price will be rejected back to below 1.3100 till the end of this week or in the beginning of the next. The exciting thing is that Cyprus may recieve an additional financial aid, and that inflation in the eurozone decreased further…Continue