EUR has been consolidating yesterday with tiny moves in range between 1.3050 and 1.3100. This morning the price continues to maintain the bullish tone and currently is just below the 1.3100 level. On Daily we are trying to escape the negative Ichimoku and the battle is with the Senkou Span B. Breaking above will turn that into a support. We have the MA200 passing through 1.3030 on Daily, so buying there is a good idea, because the market is waiting for mr.Draghi's speech. I think that there…Continue
BMO Capital Markets - "Yesterday’s rise in USD/JPY implied volatility is of interest, particularly the moves at the very front-end of the curve. On balance, this development has left us questioning whether or not FX markets are signaling that an important re-pricing of Fed tapering expectations through USD/JPY is in the works. Even sub-100.00, USD/JPY still reflects a decent degree of “overshoot” relative to where interest rate spreads alone dictate the pair should trade (for instance, the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 10:47am — No Comments
USDJPY extended its weakness yesterday towards 100.00 psychological level and even 99.00 that we have been focusing on in our past updates. Well, we anticipated a larger impulsive drop in black wave 3, but notice that pair is now reversing sharply from the lower side of a trading channel. This is usually the first sign that whole pull-back is corrective. With that in mind, its better to stay aside now and wait on possible break through the upper side of a trading channel that would put…Continue
Added by Gregor Horvat on June 4, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
EUR reversed yesterday on bad ISM data from the USA and later in the day reached 1.3107 with some 30 pips pullback. We have closed the day just above the support zone 1.3050-65. Now we have even stronger support line at 1.3025 where MA200 passes. Daily indicators are turning bullish so it's quite possible after testing 1.3030 again to break the 1.3115 resistance and to reach 1.3190. Lower good support 1.2960 will cap any downside, except in a case that mr.Draghi says something surprising and…Continue
EUR didn't test 1.3060-80 on Friday and with the beginning of the EU session the profit taking started. This process has taken the price down to 1.2950 support again, where the pair found some buyers. Currently we are in attempt to break above the MA200 on H4 as the first attempt was unsuccessful. Immediate resistance comes at 1.3030, breaking above 1.3050 will take us to 1.3090-1.3105 where is the next resistance. However the situation is pretty unstable and on another unsuccessful attempt…Continue
EUR gained above 1.3000 level yesterday as expected however it coudn't break over 1.3050. Currently EUR is trading around the support 1.3030. Maybe after some hesitation around 1.3030 EUR will test 1.3060-75 area. I expect a failiure there or a little above if reached. It's a good idea to SHORT EUR ahead of 1.3100. We have immediate support @ 1.3020 and then @ 1.3000. You may enter LONG at these levels for 1.3065-80 and then to reverse your position. If you take a look at the H4 frame you…Continue
Deutsche Bank - "We believe the market remains under-positioned for what we expect to be a once-in-a-generation move in the USD over the course of the year, as well as big moves in rates.
First, real yield differentials between the US and the rest of the world have already turned, suggesting the US trade-weighted dollar should be at least 7% higher from current levels.
(...) Second, the market continues to be too complacent on the US rates path, particularly in the short-end. One…
After testing the 1.2840 support EUR reversed and reached 1.2977 then pullbacked some 60 pips and finally closed the day around 1.2930. Remember that i have told you any daily close above 1.2930 will lead to further progress to the upside and any close below will lead to continuing consolidation. Well with the Daily close at 1.2930 it is not clear again what is going to happen. If we take a look on Daily frame we can see that after each big bearish candle the next day follows a bigger…Continue
EUR performed a range trade yesterday and after breaking below 1.2900 it reached 1.2850 as expected. Today all eyes are on the Germany's unemployment which will move the market strongly. If the data released is worse than expected we may see the price going to 1.2760 today.On better than expected value, the price will break higher 1.2890 and then 1.2915 with target around 1.2980-1.2990. Indicators on all time frames are bearish, so i expect a new slide today too, but watch out for risk…Continue
Price is finding resistance at the Kijun-Sen on this 4 hour time frame at the moment and within the thick Kumo cloud. With the Kijun flat-lining this is an indication that the medium term momentum is weakening although the short term momentum from the Tenkan-Sen is still slightly upwards. If price can not break this resistance of the Kijun expect price to re-test the Kumo bottom @ 100.933. A break of this…Continue
USD is showing some bullish intra-day swings this morning, but at the moment it’s still hard to tell if corrections (up on EURUSD, GBPUSD, down on USDCHF,…) already finished or not. We however have few charts here that are pointing for stronger USD in this week. Firstly we will take a look at the S&P Futures where we can see sharp impulse down, followed by a slow recover which we think its corrective movement. Resistance region is near, so be aware of a reversal…
It was a low volatility yesterday as the markets in UK and USA remained closed. Today we shall witness some more significant moves. The bad thing is that EUR is still in a consolidation with no clear direction. We had almost 50 pips drop during Asia session, and currently EUR trades around the fibo level 1.2915. Downmove from today has destroyed bullish outlook and the indicators are mixed now, so it is time to look at fundamentals then. We have some import prices index release from Germany…Continue
EUR has made a false break of the upside channel trendline at 1.2930 last week and then reversed back below that, currently trading very close below. As we are in a consolidation mode it is not clear what direction the EUR will choose today. H1 and bigger time frames show bearish move which is turning to bullish later today. Smaller time frames show mixed signals, so we have to wait to be sure about the correct direction. I would recommend you to try to enter LONG around 1.2865-85, the final…Continue
EUR has recovered yesterday and reached the resistance 1.2930 after dropping to 1.2820. Buyers appear around 1.2800-1.2820 so this area is well protected and should cap any downside. Currecntly EUR is trading around the Fibo level 1.2915 with the strong upside channel resistance line at 1.2930. On H4 we are inside the negative Ichimoku trying to break it higher, unfortunately drops to 1.2870 or even 50 are still possible. On Daily seems that the EUR is trying to reenter the upside channel…Continue
Added by Usman Pervez on May 23, 2013 at 10:27pm — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "the forthcoming key US data today and tomorrow will, we think, be significant for USD/JPY and equity markets. If the data are particularly strong, we suspect that a decent portion of the moves towards a weaker USD could be unwound by the end of the week, particularly if European equities move towards the “black” and US equities strike a buoyant tone. In the event of strong US data, we might look to start fading rallies or taking profit on long USD positions in AUD/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 11:45am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
HSBC - "The USD rally has further to run. The currency war is getting bigger and more intense, drawing ever more protagonists into the fray. In part, this may be because of the success of those central banks who have already sought economic advantage through targeting their currency. The market has realised there is no point in fighting the central banks at this time, and the USD is the natural candidate to act as the offset to this desire for depreciation elsewhere. If anything, the risks…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments
BMO capital Markets - "Given the strength we’ve seen in EUR/USD so far this week, we suspect that the pair is roughly priced for a rather neutral outcome from Bernanke this afternoon (or even slightly dovish), with the spot level now roughly 0.70% above its recent low, printed over time in the wake of the three, consecutive lower-than-expected prints on US initial jobless claims between the weeks of April 19th and May 3rd. That would make a temporary move into the 1.2980 area today (roughly…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:00pm — No Comments
EUR has reached my long targets from yesterday and is currently at the resistance line 1.2930 which is also the border of the ascending channel from 1.2047. Breaking above may happen only on dollar negative news from Mr.Bernarke, so untin that and FOMC decision i expect a range trade between 1.2860 and 1.2930, significant moves may happen in later american session or tomorrow.
GOLD is again in a stand-by, waiting for the dollar to choose direction.