Rabobank - "IMM Net Positioning as at 27 August 2013:
- EUR net longs continued to rise, edging up to a high since May 2011.
- Yet again USD longs fell slightly but they still remain in positive territory. We expect our structurally bullish USD view to be reflected by market positioning going forward.
- JPY shorts increased by more than the prior week’s reduction. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 100 handle but has not stood north of there since late July.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
UBS - "The new month starts with a high degree of event risk. The US may launch strikes against Syria as early as this weekend. In the week ahead, the European Central Bank, the Banks of Japan, England and Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Riksbank all hold policy meetings. The US August payrolls report is due at the end of the week, and emerging market currencies are likely to face further pressure if America's employment data suggest the Federal Reserve will agree this month to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
EUR dropped to 1.3173 last Friday and has currently recovered a little bit to above 1.3200. However first resistance comes at 1.3230-40 and the main support is 1.3210. Breaking below will open the way to 1.3160-1.3140 and below, as the dollar continues gains in other pairs like USD/CHF and USD/JPY. Dollar Indes is also trying to stablilize above SMA200 on H4 near 82.00. Obama postponed the strike over Syria for some days, maybe to find a new allys, or maybe the strike to be closer to FED's…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 2, 2013 at 5:03am — No Comments
EUR has finally dropped down after some weeks of waiting and consolidating at the top. Now it stopped at the diagonal support and the bottom line of the ascending channel at 1.3220. A break lower will target 1.3140 and 1.3100. Breaking below the last is less possible this week. Seems that the war in Syria will start Saturday night, when all the UN inspectors are gone, but USA doesn't care about them so much, the main reason is that all markets will be closed. Remember the money move the…Continue
After several hours of consolidating just below 1.3400 EUR reversed to the downside and tested 1.3300 support then pullbacked to 1.3330-40 zone of stability. First resistance comes at 1.3355 and next is the well known 1.3405, finally 1.3450. Currently EUR is supported by Senkou Span B of the positive Ichimoku on H4, and the price is trying to break it lower, however it is a bit early for that. If we succeed to break lower first target will be yesterday's low and if we have a fresh low…Continue
EUR is playing trics once again as it still locked in 60 pips range between 1.3330-1.3390. Better than expected data from Germany was a stimulus for the bulls and they appeared around the 1.3330 area which shows this is a major support level. Breaking lower of that level will take the pair at least 200 pips below. On the other hand, H1 closed above 1.3400 will open the way for breaking 1.3450 and if we have a success next target will be 1.3510-40. However with the new month beginning i…Continue
EUR has totally fell asleep for almost a week. There are extremely low movements in 20-30 pips range which have made techincal indicators run flat. The pair finds buyers around 1.3330-40 but the power is not enough to break the 1.3400 resistance so the pair is locked within 1.3340-1.3390 range. This state seems to continue for the next 2-3 days at least, maybe more. EUR will not make significant moves before September, so you'd better sit back and relax. This was the main reason for not…Continue
Added by Futuristic on August 25, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
EUR jumped higher yesterday reaching the resistance 1.3450, then pullbacked some 30 pips to 1.3420 and is currently trading around that level. I think EUR is overestimated, and the prices at the moment do not reflect the situation in EU area. The current price jump is mostly influenced by the bad data from the US than good data from the EU. In this relation it is most important what FOMC will do in September. If they start to limit the stimulus program, then dollar will become very…Continue
UBS - "The dollar index DXY remains at the bottom of its 81-85 summer trading range. Ten year US Treasury yields have traded through 2.80% for the first time in two years as America's economy continues to recover. But stronger Eurozone and UK data at the same time is preventing the dollar benefiting from the dovish stance of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Nevertheless, we think the Federal Reserve's policymaking remains the key driver of foreign exchange markets. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 20, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
On last Friday EUR was not able to progress above 1.3380 and some of the traders prefered to take their profit. The currency pair reached 1.3310 and closed the day around the support area 1.3320-30. Currently we are still there and as long as the pair trades above 1.3300, the upside is still quite possible. If the price stays above 1.3300 until the american session start , H1 model shows another test of 1.3360-80 is possible. Progress above that will be hard as there is no important news…Continue
After the volatile Thursday EUR trades calmly above 1.3340. Yesterday the EUR did a false downmove and quickly reversed to the upside reaching 1.3362 in the late american session. Currently the EUR battles with the Senkou Span A of the positive Ichimoku on H4. With the beginning of the european session some news will be released the forecasted values can support the EUR, but i think we are going towards 'double top' or 'lower top' scenario today. Losing 1.3280 level will open the way to…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 16, 2013 at 6:19am — No Comments
ING Bank - "The Fed’s campaign to reinforce a message that tapering is not tightening has seen the USD hand back the gains that by early July had, on some measures, taken it to its highest level for three years. Yet we feel that its recent weakening needs to be placed in the context of a USD that is still well within the ranges established so far in 2013. Our base case remains very much for the USD to enjoy a strong recovery into year-end, even if the catalyst for its gains is in danger of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 15, 2013 at 11:19am — No Comments
EUR was well supported by the good economic data from EU yesterday as teh market was disappointed from the US data releases too. These didn't allow the price to break 1.3240 lower and today's trade started with recovery towards 1.3300. Currently the EUR upside is capped by the intermediate resistance zone between 1.3290-1.3310, on breaking above my yesterday's long position will be triggered. If you remember i was long above 1.3330 with SL 1.3310. Today's economic releases are expected to…Continue
EUR has finally escaped the price trap and turned south as expected. Seems that the news from the USA influenced the market stronger than these from Germany. Today GDP values for Germany will be released and Producer price index for the US, to the outlook will be the same as yesterday - rising first and then sell. Currently EUR is trading below the resistance area of 1.3270-80. To restore the upside we need a H4 close above 1.3320 which i think will be hard. Today's target will be 1.3175-85…Continue
UBS - "The summer weakness of the dollar has extended further this month. The greenback ended the week around 1.33, 96, 1.55 and 0.92 against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc respectively. America's currency has been undermined by stronger data in the Eurozone, UK and China. But its current soft patch also reflects investors reducing positions and seasonally lower volumes in the currency markets. That suggests dollar weakness has been exaggerated. The Treasury market is also signaling…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 12, 2013 at 11:53am — No Comments
EUR has opened the new week with a downside gap. This is a good signal that probably we have reached a top at 1.3400 and will be no more upside. On Daily we have a great need of correction move lower. First support is 1.3295. Today we have no so important economic data, except the Federal budget. Better than expected value will increade the downside pressure over the EUR. On Tuesday we shall have the consumer price index for Germany, Germany's ZEW and US retail sales releases - some very…Continue
UBS - "Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director Head, Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research:
- During the course of this year our bullish view on the dollar has become more consensus as the Federal Reserve appears likely to be the first of the major central banks to exit unconventional monetary policy.
- But not all investors are long the greenback. American fund managers - the largest holders of dollar- denominated capital in the world - continue to have historically high…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
EUR is still looking for a direction. This morning the currency is under a slight downside pressure but still manitains the price levels above 1.3200. All indicators on H4 and H1 are going flat, giving no clue to where will the price go in the hours ahead. If we are not able to break and close above 1.3300 today, EUR will come under selling pressure with first target 1.3205 and then 1.3170 and finally 1.3140. The market is waiting for Germany's Factory Orders data release later today and…Continue
After the volatile Friday EUR trades calmly this morning around 1.3275. First resistance is a little above at 1.3310, then 1.3345 and finally 1.3405. This week is full of economic data from the Eurozone and the expected values are better than previous which have to support the currency. But we shall see what will be the actual values. On Daily all indicators point to the upside, except Stochastic. On Weekly we can see something interesting - if this week we have a bearish candle, that will…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on August 5, 2013 at 5:03am — No Comments