"IMM data for the week of February 25th showed speculators cutting overall exposure to the USD back a little further; the aggregate USD position dropped to a total of USD13.7bn against the major currencies in the week, the lowest aggregate long USD exposure since early November.
Investors are a little more constructive on the EUR—a trend that may extend after Eurozone data dampened speculation of more ECB easing at next week’s policy meeting. Net EUR longs rose to total +13.9k…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
EUR opened today's session with a huge downside gap. The price has tested the support at 1.3750 where buyers appeared and took the price back to 1.3780-90 resistance area. This will be the first resistance for today and the second one will be 1.3824. If we fail to record a new high today then a powerful downside move will appear. In all this bullish picture something doesn't seem right. If you look at Daily chart you can see the area 1.3810-30 is quite powerful resistance it bounced back…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
"There has been much economic data reported today, and there are month-end considerations. The two main drivers of the capital markets today have been the biggest one day loss in the Chinese yuan and news that the preliminary euro zone February CPI did not tick down as many expected. The headline rate was unchanged at 0.8% y/y, though the core measure did rise to…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 12:15pm — No Comments
"GBP – how much further?
Since Bank of England Governor Carney outlined the new forward guidance in the February Inflation Report, a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
EUR recovered almost all losses yesterday after Mrs.Yellen's statement that FED needs to see the economic impact of the bad weather before continuing with further tapering. This caused an immediate dollar drop against amlost all currencies. However the price made some pullback this morning to 1.3700 and currently is trading around it. Today's Germany's retail sales and EU's HICP will determine further EUR movement. Technically the pair is supported by 1.3670-85 support area and it is…Continue
USD may weaken broadly in a renewed environment of yield chase evident in falling global bond yields, strong US equities and sharply falling Greek bond yields. The market still faces significant flashpoints for risk aversion (Ukraine, Turkey and Thailand, Chinese property market and deflation risk in Europe), but it is tending to shrug these off.
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 5:20am — No Comments
Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "The growing disconnect between US rates and the US stock market suggests that US rates (and the USD by extension) may have more at stake in how the weather story plays out. We believe, once data begin to improve with the weather, Treasury yields and the USD could snap higher in a relatively short space of time.
To place the severity of this winter in historical context, we have developed an Extreme Winter Weather (EWW) index using state level data going…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 27, 2014 at 6:30pm — No Comments
"Developments in Russia and Ukraine are continuing to drive risk aversion today, with European equities down around –1.0% across the board, and the USD and JPY outperforming in G10 FX markets. On the other end of the spectrum, AUD has continued to struggle on the back of softer CapEx data overnight, while EURUSD has slipped down to the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 11:31am — No Comments
"A quiet morning yesterday, followed by a busier afternoon where the USD made some gains against EUR, GBP, AUD and CAD amongst others. The result was vols bouncing off the lows seen in the morning. Today the theme seems to be the same so far after some weaker than expected numbers out of Europe. With vols in a lot of these pairs so low already this move in the USD has been welcomed by the market and has…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 10:14am — No Comments
"AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced
Confirmation arrived overnight that Australian miners expect to cut back their investment spending sharply during the next financial year (July 1 2014 - Jun 30 2015).
A decline had been expected but not on such a scale. The raw estimates - which admittedly are only informed guesses - anticipate a 25.2% y/y decline in mining investment. Looking at the track record of these guesses and adjusting accordingly softens the blow…
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 8:55am — No Comments
EUR failed several times to progress above 1.3775 and yesterday finally dropped below 1.3720 support which was so important for the bulls. Then the pair bottomed at 1.3661 and this morning returned some of the yesterday's losses, currently trading near 1.3690. The downside move wasn't big enough to destroy the Weekly bullish outlook, and 100 pips daily volatility is something quite normal. So i look at this like a correction move, and the upside may be fully restored above 1.3730, setting…Continue
"The US dollar has been confined to narrow ranges against the major currencies. The euro, yen, and sterling have traded well within yesterday's ranges. The dollar bloc was a bit heavier, but the Canadian dollar has fully recovery and the Aussie, nearly so, after disappointing (but dated) Q4 construction figures (-1.0% vs. +0.7% consensus). …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 12:11pm — No Comments
"CAD – how vulnerable?
In just a few sessions last week the CAD managed to erase all of the gains it had managed against the USD…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments
EUR is still almost unchanged after yesterday's quick 'tennis' day and currently the ball is still in the neutral position. However the price doesn't feel comfortable ahead of the resistance 1.3775 and it was bounced several times from it. H4 close below 1.3720 will confirm the downside reversal has started with first support to break 1.3670, then 1.3650 and finally 1.3600. To the upside the things seems difficult as 1.3775 stops every attempt of the bulls. First place to sell is close to…Continue
"Price action in equities and USTs during the Asian and London morning sessions suggest ‘risk off’. We suspect participants have been watching moves in CNY closely. The recent activity in the CNY suggests PBoC is aiming for more ‘two-way’ flows which are directly linked to macro economic developments. …Continue
Added by Daologic on February 25, 2014 at 12:08pm — No Comments
EUR has moved in a 60 pips range and we now have the first sign of a possible reversing of the bullish trend. It is the yesterday's long legged doji candle on Daily - we have a very small body and long shadows. This shows the market is confused and is looking for a direction, that means the bulls are wondering what to do. A Daily close below 1.3690 will confirm the start of reversal. Once below 1.3600 the target will be set at 1.3430 and below. EUR still has the potential for a last jump…Continue
" Exporter hedging at the shortest duration in 5 years
Importers also look to be preparing for lower NZD
We see the NZD/USD at 0.7700 by year-end
Exporters have significantly…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 25, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
USDBRL’s correction lower from major resistance at 2.4540 has extended a little more this week, taking the USD below weekly trend support and underpinning expectations for a deeper correction of the 2.15/2.45 move up. We think USDBRL losses should extend towards 2.28/30 from here to correct at least half of the…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
Thank you for your great support and for the honor to give me the price of the Most valuable fxnetwork member. I will continue to follow the market as best as i can and to provide daily forecasts. I hope they will make your trade better. I admire also to Daologic and Haitham653, their work is amaizing too. Thank you once again to all who voted for me :)
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