EUR has dropped from 1.3760 to 1.3685 following the worse economic data, but later through the american session it succeeded to return some of the losses and currently is back above 1.3700 close to the resistance area 1.3720-30. To continue to the upside we need a clear break of 1.3750, but today we have no important data for the eurozone nor for Germany, so we have to rely again on the bad numbers from the USA to make gains. Of course there is a great possibility for the existing home sales…Continue
EUR moved in a 50 pips range yesterday and closed the day below 1.3750, however this morning it has made an upside attempt but it was not successful again. At the moment of writing the price is testing 1.3720 support, if broken downside will continue to 1.3670. If it si broken too then the target will be below 1.3600. On the upside we need a clear break of 1.3770 ,then 1.3800 and finally 1.3850. Today there is a lot of economic data, for now Germany's producer price index numbers are worse.…Continue
EUR continues to move in a narrow range, seems that the mixed Germany's data doesn't influence the pair at all. Again the EUR benefits of the bad US data than any good news from the EU zone. Today is the FOMC will be released later through the american session and until that a consolidation with bullish tone will present. Today we shall test 1.3775 once again and if broken the pair will try to close above 1.3800 and to open the way for testing 1.3830 and 1.3880-95.
GOLD is correcting…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 19, 2014 at 6:21am — No Comments
Without any important economic data EUR traded in a narrow range yesterday and this morning too. For today Germany's ZEW will be released, and the data is expected to be mixed to good, later we have the New York Empire Manifacturing index which last time came a lot better than expected, but to beat the previous result will be hard and from the USA we also expect Treasury International Capital flows and the number here is quite possible to be worse too. So for today we have a great…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on February 18, 2014 at 6:17am — No Comments
Recent consolidation ended last week with a move that emphasised the importance of buying at a 50% pullback point. Increasing demand resulted in the most powerful weekly gains since Jun and with the highest levels since 2009. The speed of the upside means signals are overbought and prone to profit taking but with prices hugging the top of both weekly and daily Keltner channels, and the 13 day avg supportive there is potential for 1.6878 and 1.7043…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on February 17, 2014 at 8:23am — No Comments
"USD weakness takes USD/JPY into buy zone
In characterizing recent trends in FX, the most obvious is broad-based USD weakness which accelerated last week particularly in many of the emerging currencies that earlier in the year had fallen sharply, but also extended to a firmer JPY. Nevertheless, USD/JPY may be poised to recover if investors continue show improved confidence in EM and commodity currencies.
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 7:28am — No Comments
An extremely bullish week for the EUR, GOLD and GBP has passed. All of these closed the week almost at the top with no signs of correction. There will be no so important news releases for today and also it is a holiday in the USA so the markets there will remain closed. The important data will be released on Wednesday and it will influence heavily GBP and the EUR. Dollar is expected to remain under pressure at least until Thursday.
GOLD benefits too from the weak dollar and is trying…Continue
JPY: Q4 GDP/BoJ Meeting (Feb 16/18)
The first estimate of Japanese Q4 GDP is likely to show growth rising to +0.80%
from +0.30%. As for policy we do not expect any major adjustment by the BoJ.
AUD: RBA Minutes (Feb 18, 00:30 GMT)
The RBA's February meeting minutes will have less 'new' information than usual,
given the SOMP has detailed their now 'neutral' bias.
Added by Daologic on February 16, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
"Strategy Desk Comment
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 1:56pm — No Comments
EUR has fully recovered after Wednesday's unexpected drop, currently it is moving along the diagonal support line at 1.3675 and is just above it. We have the resistance at 1.3710, we have all chances to test it today, but this will depend on Germany's and eurozone's GDP and Michigan confidence later today. Any good data for the EUR will boost the upside above 1.3700 and we even may reach 1.3750 if we have a bad Michigan confidence number. It is good to keep in mind that today is the end of…Continue
"Despite our negative medium-term bias, where the gold price is expected to drop down into the $1,100/oz territory before the end of the second quarter of 2014, we see more upside in the near term. Disappointing US economic data so far this year, along with Emerging Markets turmoil that came on the heels of poor Chinese manufacturing indicators in January and concern that US Tapering would shift capital flows back into the US, has made gold, and to a lesser extent silver, stars of the metals…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
"The short-term trend in USDCAD has turned consolidative, with a bounce in the CAD helped by last
week’s better Canadian employment data. The correction lower may extend a little more near-term but
we think the flow of key Canadian data running into the early March BoC meeting are likely to be soft. Levels nearer 1.09 are an ideal spot to reposition long for a resumption of the broader trend up in USDCAD which we think remains well supported from a fundamental and technical point of…
Added by Daologic on February 14, 2014 at 5:29am — No Comments
"US Economy: Where do We Stand?
Today's US retail sales report was disappointing. Not only were January sales poor, the weakest in ten months, but both November and December sales were revised lower. The back month revisions, coupled with…
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 4:20pm — No Comments
1) S&P moved the outlook on Turkey’s rating from stable to negative. We totally agree but this is not a surprise to us as our model has Turkey at BB/Ba2/BB. S&P's BB+ is the lowest of the three. Fitch and Moody's have Turkey at investment grade (Baa3 and BBB-, respectively), which increasingly looks premature.…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 4:15pm — No Comments
It was quite suprising downside move yesterday as noone expected that one guy will make an interview and will talk about things which may or may not become a reality. In fact this was a signal for some big players to make their day as the price went down for more than 50 pips in less than 10 min. But yesterday's drop has made one thing clear enough to see. Take a look on H4 and on H1 - you may see there so clear H&S formation with the 1.3570 neckline H4 closed below will confirm the…Continue
"We are often questioned on how plausible it is the RBNZ will raise rates fairly aggressively when the rest of the world remains ‘on hold’.
Here we address some of the key issues.…Continue
Notwithstanding the jump in GBP post BoE inflation report, we see pressure building for further gains. The market may be reluctant to buy at the top of its recent range, but may be left scrambling if it breaks through. The recent strong UK data and outlook from the BoE suggest it is moving closer to hike than other central banks, albeit trying to keep rate hike expectations in check.…Continue
USDCAD: Corrective Bias Persists
Open 1.1001 Range 1.0976/1.1025 Prev. Close 1.1003…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 1:49pm — No Comments
EUR dropped minutes after some key moments from mrs.Yellen's speech were released - in fact she says that the tapering program will continue and there will be no delay. This immediately supported the weak dollar and it recovered some of the lost positions against the EUR. We had several attempts to break the 1.3670-80 area but all of them failed, so the price returned to the 1.3620-30 support zone with the first resistance of 1.3650. I expect the pair to make an upside move to 1.3645-50 and…Continue
We see global markets evenly balanced. In this environment we may see asset markets and currencies trade in established ranges with potential for relatively out-performance for markets less closely correlated to the Chinese growth outlook and showing individual flare. We prefer to be long GBP, though await the BoE inflation report. We prefer to be short JPY, but await Chinese trade and credit data. We continue to see a medium term bias towards a stronger USD…
Added by Daologic on February 12, 2014 at 5:16am — No Comments