All Blog Posts Tagged 'USD' (1,326)

TD:USDCAD-Correction Risks Rise Despite Weak Crude


On the charts, the tumble on funds over the past two days weakens the uptrend in the market and while the market has recovered from the overnight push below 1.11, price action was weak enough on the charts (forming a bearish engulfing signal on the daily candle) to raise the risk of a deeper correction from here; at the very least, we have to reckon with strong…


Added by Daologic on October 2, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments

TD:USDCAD On Hold Below 1.12 For Now

"Open 1.1178        Range 1.1135/1.1179        Prev. Close 1.1164

USDCAD continues to pressure resistance at 1.1174 on the charts (daily channel top) and there is speculation that the barrier interest at 1.12 is also helping keep USDCAD capped at present.…


Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 12:03pm — No Comments


"Support 1.1125 Resistance 1.1175

The main focus today will be July GDP released at 13.30 BST. Domestic offers are lined up towards the recent…


Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 11:57am — No Comments

Rabobank about first FOMC rate hike

"US personal income and spending in August were much better than a month earlier. In nominal terms, personal income grew by 0.3% and spending by 0.5%. In the same report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was published: the PCE deflator fell to 1.5% year-on-year, from 1.6%. The consensus expectation was 1.4%, so the slide in inflation was smaller than had been feared. The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 1.5%. The fall in inflation has led to several Fed doves asking for…


Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments

RBS: Trading strategy-29 Sept.

"Negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative and markets aren't trading like EUR/USD positioning is stretched. Stay short as a confirmed break of 1.2671 could lead to an early test of multi-year lows. While GBP/USD should also fall, short EUR/GBP looks a more compelling monetary policy divergence play. RBNZ Governor Wheeler's talk of possible currency intervention is significant and supports our view that NZD/CAD falls further. We add short AUD/CAD as iron ore prices are…


Added by Daologic on September 29, 2014 at 7:49am — No Comments

BNZ: NZDUSD-sell a rally

Outlook: Sell a rally

ST Resistance: 0.7960 (ahead of 0.8050)

ST Support: 0.7810 (ahead of 0.7684)

The RBNZ’s tirade against the NZD last week saw the 2014-low convincingly broken. That should provide firm resistance on the upside. There are few technical supports ahead of a full retracement of the June…


Added by Daologic on September 29, 2014 at 5:33am — 1 Comment

FOREX forecast 29.09.2014-03.10.2014

EUR has continued the free fall which started nearly 10 weeks ago. News from the EU and ermany are continuous worse and worse while over the Atlantic Mrs.Yellen continues to reduce the stimulus program. From the other side seems that 1000 pips were not enough for the big players to take their profit and they continued to sell EUR. Are they brave enough to bring the price to 1.2210? Technically this is not impossible. This price is the monthly SMA200 line and it is a good target. This monthly…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 29, 2014 at 5:12am — No Comments

TD:USD Rally In Pursuit of New Boundaries

"The next two weeks are going to be very busy in terms of data releases and events. The slew of data will kick-off tonight with Japanese inflation, followed by tomorrow's US Q2 GDP final estimate, US PCE and Eurozone inflation on Monday and Tuesday, the Japanese Tankan on Wednesday, the ECB meeting on Thursday, and…


Added by Daologic on September 26, 2014 at 4:57am — 1 Comment

RBS: FX Trading Strategy-24 Sept.


USD strength still is apparent, but as the market loses confidence in the global growth outlook, led by concerns over growth in China and several other emerging countries, the losses are more noticeable in the last week in commodity and some EM currencies.. EM equities and bond markets have underperformed major markets in recent weeks and commodity price falls have been more broad-based. The market is de-risking somewhat from EM markets and this is spilling over to currency…


Added by Daologic on September 24, 2014 at 5:04am — No Comments

RBS:Downside risks mount for AUD


Softer US data and broader concerns over a weaker global economic outlook, apparent in weaker commodities and equities, may contribute to the first significant retracement in the USD/JPY after its rapid month-long rally. The EUR may also benefit from reluctance by the ECB to take further easing steps at this time after the limited response to its first LTRO last week. Fears of the…


Added by Daologic on September 23, 2014 at 5:02am — No Comments

BNZ: NZDUSD technical outlook-Sell a rally

Outlook: Sell a rally

ST Resistance: 0.8260 (ahead of 0.8470)

ST Support: 0.8060 (ahead of 0.7960)

After a brief test of the 0.8060 support post-FOMC last week, NZD/USD begins this week much in the same space as last Monday. The downtrend remains in place, and a breach of 0.8060 would see a quick trip…


Added by Daologic on September 22, 2014 at 6:01am — No Comments

RBS: Trading Strategy

"A smaller than expected tLTRO take-up and largely unchanged FOMC language wasn't sufficient to squeeze EUR/USD higher as we had expected, so we square tactical long EUR/USD exposure. We continue to hold strategic shorts looking for a move to 1.27 or below by year-end and 1.22 by mid-2015 as negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative. While the dust settles post the Scottish referendum we keep our GBP powder dry, but will look to sell EUR/GBP rallies. Data surprises may…


Added by Daologic on September 22, 2014 at 5:58am — No Comments

Forex forecast 22.09-26.09.2014

EUR continues free fall and indicators on H4, Daily and Weekly are extremely bearish. Seems that still noone is going to take profit from Short, and this tells me that more slide is to come. Today mr.Draghi will speak, but tomorrow will be the PMI data release and if it is weak again EUR will possibly drop below 1.2805 support. On Wednesday we shall have the Germany's IFO which is expected to be worse than previous too. On Thursday the most important news will be the US jobless claims report…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 22, 2014 at 4:30am — 2 Comments


Overall, we continue to feel that the USD’s broader rally is running out of steam and prone to a correction; that observation, combined with some soft-looking technical signals for USDCAD on the short-term charts continues to make us a little more concerned about a move lower in USDCAD in the next couple of weeks.  USDCAD struggled to hold a bid this week and has looked heavy near 1.10 or a little above. Short-term chart…


Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 11:37am — No Comments


Support 1.0925 Resistance 1.1000

Usd/Cad remains stuck in the range that has prevailed for most of this week, with flows still very much mixed. Usd strength has been countered by Cad strength on many of the crosses, especially Cad/Jpy and Aud/Cad. We would expect to see offers lined up towards 1.1000 now, and beyond that, the key 1.1100 area is still pivotal. To the downside we should still find stops through 1.0925, ahead of demand towards 1.0875/1.0900. Main focus today will be…


Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 11:30am — No Comments

TD:USDCAD NEW TRADE – September 18

Sell USDCAD at 1.0910 stop entry, risk 1.0950. Target 1.0780
We are extending our negative short-term view on the USD to the CAD this week and want to sell USDCAD on a break below technical support in the low 1.09s. The CAD is supported by stable interest rate spreads versus the USD, which might be enough to fuel a push under 1.08 near-term. That would also ’fit’ with seasonal trends that are typically adverse for USDCAD around this time of year.

Added by Daologic on September 19, 2014 at 3:53am — 1 Comment


"The FOMC will be the global focus on Wednesday as investors look to whether the Fed continues to pivot toward the first rate hike. Key points to watch at the meeting will be whether the “considerable time” phrase is removed from the statement, how aggressive the Fed’s hike projections are (in the Summary of

Economic Projections for the 2015-2017 period) and Yellen’s tone in the post-meeting press conference. We also expect the FOMC to discuss their updated exit strategy, potentially…


Added by Daologic on September 17, 2014 at 10:51am — No Comments

FOREX forecast 16-19.09.2014

EUR is in a consolidation mode again before the next slide down. Possible support that will stop the downside is 1.2600 and the final one is around 1.2300 but i doubt we shall reach there soon. There was a large amount of unexpected bad EUR news and it seems the things over the Atlantic are getting a lot better. It is expected the FED to make another stimulus cut from 25 bln to 15 bln. This will push the EUR even lower till the end of this week. Today is expected the Gernamy's ZEW to be a…


Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on September 16, 2014 at 5:30am — 3 Comments

TD: CAD technical outlook-15 september.


"We highlighted developments on the weekly chart Friday but it is probably worth reiterating what is going on here after USDCAD closed out the week at its best levels since March. The broader bull trend is slowly but surely getting back on track after the Q2 correction; that slide saw funds test, and hold, major support defined by the trend off the 2012 low and the 40- week/200-day MA. The consolidation since March formed a bull wedge and the July break above…


Added by Daologic on September 15, 2014 at 2:55pm — No Comments

BNZ: NZDUSD-sell a rally- 15 Sept.


Outlook: Sell a rally

ST Resistance: 0.8260 (ahead of 0.8470)

ST Support: 0.8060 (ahead of 0.7960)

The NZD slipped through the 50% Fib retracement level at 0.8260 last week, which now provides the first line of resistance. The 2014-low at 0.8060 would be the first stop ahead of a quick trip…


Added by Daologic on September 15, 2014 at 5:48am — 1 Comment


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