Tuesday’s report highlighted the stalling of Monday’s setback at a Marabuzo line created Thursday. This pattern again proved its worth as it became a platform for renewed buying. Although the extent of the resulting upside was not enough to produce a new weekly high, it was enough, coupled with the support of the 13 day moving average and positive momentum, to turn sentiment positive. The market has potential to 1.6240, 1.6260 and 1.6307.…Continue
The broad fluctuation around the key 13 day m.a continued Mon. A sequence of 2 up days ended with a reaction from Fri’s high that took prices back within the Ichimoku Cloud and to re-test the average. This level held and the bounce has been extended in Asia. And while a move through this month’s top is needed to accelerate bullish momentum immediate sentiment is still mildly positive. So allowing for a reaction to Asian upside we look for the upside to extend with…
"USD/CAD may be at risk of slipping back a little more intraday as early trade is pressuring hourly trend and retracement support in the mid 1.05s. We think intraday losses should be limited—to the 1.0520 area—however, as the broader trend still looks constructive. Short-term trend momentum has weakened over the past few hours, leaving the market looking like a short-term range trade below 1.0565/85.
USD/CAD peeled off the intraday high Friday and closed out the session just off the…
The selling at a 62% correction point has proved significant with the reaction to that point extending into a 2nd negative week in a row. A mid-week rally proved temporary with sellers emerging inside the daily Ichimoku Cloud and although a key Marabuzo line created 4 weeks ago has yet to be tested, negative strength indicators mean that we look for the downside to continue.
Potential targets include .9014 and .8951.…
Added by Alan Collins on November 25, 2013 at 8:23am — No Comments
After Wednesday's false move lower EUR returned back to 1.3560 resistance which holds the further upside for now. You have to allow the EUR to consolidate for the next 30 hours from the time of writing as there are no any important news from the EU and no news from the USA too. More economic data will be released on Wednesday when i expect the 1.3560 to be broken to the upside for at least 100 pips more. If that fails again, bears will take control and we shall watch for a break through…Continue
"(...) The euro-yen and sterling yen crosses capture the theme. Both are trading at multi-year highs, even though the dollar remains a few percentage points below the high it set against the yen in May.
The euro traded down to almost the support near GBP0.8300, but sterling is at 3-year highs…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 25, 2013 at 5:35am — No Comments
"FX Set-up: USD Mixed, Focus on Commodity FX
EUR/USD has taken back more than 3/4 of the sell-off seen earlier in the week on the back of the negative depo rate…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 22, 2013 at 1:25pm — No Comments
EUR has made a correction higher as expected, but the upside is limited by the 1.3560 resistance. To restore the upside we need at least one H4 bar close above that. For now this seems quite difficult. The currency is supported by the ascending channel trendline and the resistances are the senkou span A at 1.3520 and Kijun Sen at 1.3560. Breaking below Tenkan Sen @ 1.3470 will lead to a new test of 1.3400 and a clear break of the last will set the target at 1.3100. The analysis above is made…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 22, 2013 at 7:16am — No Comments
FX Set-up: Taper Caper, USD to Firm
Taper trades are back in vogue. Better than expected US data and hawkish Fed comments drove US long-term…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 21, 2013 at 1:13pm — No Comments
EUR dropped 100 pips for less than 10 minutes, following an unexpected news release from the ECB. This has triggered my short scenario as the pair has broken 1.3460 support. Currently the EUR trades around 1.3420 support. The strong move from yesterday still prevents the market players from entering the market and the trade is very calm. Today probably we shall test the 1.3460 once again. If not successful then more downside will follow and it will be even stronger. On H4 frame it is a…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 21, 2013 at 9:43am — No Comments
" There are four main forces that continue to shape the investment climate: Fed tapering, further action by the ECB, Japan’s third arrow, and China’s economic stabilization
- Japan reported a much larger than expected trade deficit
- Bernanke's comments late…
Added by Daologic on November 20, 2013 at 12:06pm — No Comments
Selling pressure remained a dominant background feature Tue. Minor losses were posted for a 3rd day in a row and a close below the 13 day m.a for the 1st time in Nov. Selling has deepened overnight and although the scope of the moves remains muted, with a Keltner channel increasingly negative and bounces limited the intraday tone is mildly negative.
Scope to .9066 and below that a key Marabuzo line from 3 weeks ago, .9014, comes into focus.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on November 20, 2013 at 7:03am — No Comments
Today is the FOMC rate decision and the market will look for some more hints about tapering. The silence around the tapering maintains the pressure over the dollar. Better data from Germany helped the EUR to bounce from 1.3485 support and to reach 1.3578 in the beginning of todays trade. In fact i expected this to happen earlier yesterday. The price hit 1.3578 where is the SMA200 on H4 as expected. Now we are going to consolidate below that line today and will try to break it through the…Continue
Looking ahead the AUD is likely to be buffeted mostly by domestic and Chinese economic data. The positive reception to last week’s news of Chinese structural reforms has supported AUD/USD. That said, China still faces many hurdles, not least in implementing these reforms and we do are reluctant to forecast a break above the 0.95 level in the coming months. Near-term the 50 day sma is likely to provide…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 10:09am — No Comments
"Bernanke’s remarks on “Communication and Monetary Policy” after market closes at 7:00pm will attract considerable attention. Our expectation is for his remarks to…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 8:02am — No Comments
Following the good economic releases on yesterday EUR climbed up and reached my first target at 1.3530. Today after testing the 1.3490 support EUR maintains the bullish tone as Germany's ZEW will be released today. This will be the main market mover for the day. Better than previous data is forecasted, but we shall see what will be the real data. If the forecasted value is confirmed the EUR will try to reach 1.3600 level and to test SMA200. First attempt will be unsuccessful so you may enter…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on November 19, 2013 at 7:44am — No Comments
"USD/CAD has traded steadily lower since peaking above 1.05 late last week. The failure to hold those gains has proven to be a significant setback for the market but, with the spot level now 100 ticks or so off the peak seen Thursday, we would expect some buying interest to re-emerge sooner rather than later. The hourly chart, above, suggests that selling pressure is easing at least, via the downward sloping wedge pattern that has shaped trade since last Thursday’s high. That does not…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:26am — No Comments
EUR is moving with some bullish tone as the market is optimistic about the economic data from the EU in days ahead. Dollar weakness is due to wednesday's FOMC meeting and the uncertainty about tapering. Speculations that FED may delay tapering for some months more are causing the pressure over the dollar which will increase in the following 2-3 days. We can clearly see the 'flag' formation on H4 frame which may extend to 1.3530-40 area where is the Senkou span B of the negative Ichimoku. We…Continue
"EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance holds on closing basis at 1.3501, there's scope for resumption of weakness to test the support at 1.3293 and then 1.3166. Only a close above 1.3501 would prolong the recovery to 1.3564.
USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength approaching resistance at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53. Support is at 99.11 ahead of 97.62.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The next main resistance is at 1.6260. Support is at 1.5989.
USDCHF BULLISH While support…
"The euro has recorded higher lows for six consecutive sessions It tested the $1.35 in the second half of last week, but did not manage to close about it. This corresponds to a retracement objective of the nearly 5.5 cent decline beginning Oct 25. Assuming this level is convincingly breached, we see scope for the euro to rise 1% next week toward $1.3630. A move below $1.34…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 18, 2013 at 7:47am — No Comments