EUR dropped below 1.3500 yesterday and is now approaching a strong support area which is going to stop the downside move and to start a recovery to the upside.This area is between 1.3420 and 1.3450. However if 1.3400 is broken this will lead to another 100 pips drop, but i think this won't happen this month. Since today's opening the EUR shows signs of recovery. The target is 1.3500 and above but the first attempt may not succeed.
GOLD is pretty calm in this situation, hovering above…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on July 23, 2014 at 6:23am — No Comments
The double top at 1.3965 (and the break under the neckline trigger) targets a drop back to the upper 1.33s—our long-held target for a downside extension. Trend momentum is negative on the shorter-term (6-hour and daily) studies. Even with spot reversing from the intraday low and closing…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 2:34pm — No Comments
We expect that the JPY is still on course for softening vs. the USD over the medium-term as the progression of Fed tapering highlights the extremely accommodative position of the BoJ. However, near-term the readjustment in expectations regarding the outlook for the AUD, NZD and the EUR could be providing additional support for the yen. Layered on top of the prevailing geopolitical risks and the adjustments…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments
"We think the broader, downward correction in USDCAD has run its course; technical factors are turning bullish after the rebound from 1.0600/50 and the fundamental data flow is likely to remain challenging for the CAD. Market positioning is neutral and there is no incentive for investors to get long CAD, in our opinion. We think there is a risk that Canada's June CPI data disappoints to the downside, which should help push USDCAD to, and perhaps through,1.08."
Added by Daologic on July 18, 2014 at 6:19am — No Comments
EUR still holds 1.3520 by the end of the week, but let's first take a look on my previous forecast. on Wednesday i have forecasted that the EUR will continue sliding down to the support area 1.3490-1.3500. Well it still didn't reached that but went too close and the week is not over yet.We can see some stabilization just above that support area. So maybe some correction to the upside is possible today for example to 1.3540-50 and then another push to the downside again.
Technically, price signals on the short and medium-term charts are bullish. We think USDCAD price action marked a strong rejection of the low 1.06 area via a bullish outside range day on Friday and a more complex bull reversal signal on the weekly chart (bullish “morning star” pattern) following the weak…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 16, 2014 at 1:46pm — No Comments
The significant of the Marabuzo line formed July 3rd was emphasised yesterday. Confirming our weekly call, that point was rejected for a 5th day in a row. This time this led to aggressive buying of USDCHF and a close above the 200 day moving average. Continued in Asia, modestly, intraday signals for sentiment are overbought and there is growing potential for profit taking but with the underlying tone assessed as positive with potential to .8998 and…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 16, 2014 at 6:15am — No Comments
EUR dropped yesterday following a lot worse than expected ZEW data from Germany and Eurozone. Today i expect the downside to continue with target 1.3490-1.3500 support area. If that is broken too (maybe not today) downside will continue to the major support and reversal area 1.3420-30. Closing below that on Weekly will reverse the bullish trend. But I don't think this will happen soon. Currently EUR is bearish on all time frames, so more downside to come, do not enter LONG. A correction has…Continue
Fundamentally, we feel that even relatively disappointing US growth so far this year contrasts with weak (or weakening) growth trends in the Eurozone while the Fed’s steady move away from QE contrasts with the ECB’s recent embrace of more expansive, non -traditional policy measures. This should be EURUSDnegative.
Based on spot/equity regressions through the 2011/12 period, relative banking sector equity performances currently suggest a EURUSD fair value of…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 16, 2014 at 4:30am — No Comments
Towards the end of June the market started to rethink its bearish CAD view. Canadian CPI inflation headed higher and this triggered a debate over whether the BoC will be forced to drop its dovish tone. Countering this view, last week’s BoC’s Outlook Survey suggested the existence of downside risks on inflation. Since this will likely be used by the BoC as reason to maintain the dovish outlook it this…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 14, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments
Outlook: Sell the rally
ST Resistance: 0.8840 (ahead of 0.8900)
ST Support: 0.8780 (ahead of 0.8700)
NZD/USD tested the post-float high of 0.8843, but failed to crack it last week. It remains within striking distance, with the big figure 0.8900 likely the first stop of resistance…
Added by Daologic on July 14, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments
EUR is consolidating again ahead of Daily Senkou Span A price but as long as the price is below 1.3640 the pair is quite vulnerable to a sudden drop to 1.3540-50 for example. However this will be only a temporary weakness. And the consolidation outlook won't be changed even if the price drops to 1.3500. I think that the EUR will try to enter the negative Daily Ichimoku in the next 10 days and this means reaching 1.3700. Once above 1.3700, the final resistance will be 1.3750, and if we have a…Continue
"There seems to be a fair amount of anxiousness ahead of today’s FOMC minutes but European investors will have to wait until after the market close for their release (7pm London). DB’s Joe Lavorgna expects the minutes to reveal a more hawkish side to the FOMC than has been presented from Yellen’s recent public commentary. Judging by the trading patterns on previous FOMC minutes days, the minutes have been a bridge between the…Continue
EUR has stopped for a while the free fall, but it almost has no chances of any recovery to the upside as we have a strong resistance area built by several resistance lines. This resistance area is between 1.3630 and 1.3660. If we have any recovery into this area please keep in mind that the new downside wave may start at any moment. Upside reversal may happen only on a Daily close above 1.3680. If so, then the negative Daily Ichimoku will be inder attack and the target price will be…Continue
Outlook: Sell the rally
ST Resistance: 0.8790 (ahead of 0.8840)
ST Support: 0.8700 (ahead of 0.8640)
NZD/USD looks to have lost its upward momentum, having failed to break 0.8800 for the second consecutive week. The big figure 0.8700 provides initial support, before sterner stuff around…
Added by Daologic on July 7, 2014 at 7:00am — No Comments
A sequence of 2 up weeks ended last week despite initial upside reaching the most positive levels for 6 weeks. This was achieved at the beginning of the week but prices were unable to be sustained above the 200 day moving average and 4 consecutive daily losses were posted into Friday’s close. With the 13 day moving average breached and medium-term signals turning increasingly negative we look for the downside to deepen further.
Potential exists to 1.3477 and even towards 1.3369, a…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on July 7, 2014 at 6:51am — No Comments
A break of 1.3580 may setup a test of the 1.3500 level.
Closing above the 1.3695-1.3705 level may setup a test of…Continue
Added by Futuristic on July 4, 2014 at 4:06pm — No Comments
"If the EUR/USD resilience implies that the ECB is still under the shadow of the Fed, then those ‘other’ European central banks are under the influence of the ECB. Following the ECB’s rate cuts last month, the SNB, Riksbank and the Norges Bank all became much more aggressively dovish. In order to counter the risk that low rates will accentuate excessive risk taking (specifically in the mortgage market), these banks are…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
"We interpret the speech from RBA Governor Glenn Stevens this week as evidence that the RBA is much more reactive to the exchange rate above .95. It may lean towards either an easing bias or threaten intervention if it were to rise above this level, especially if its key commodity prices remain weaker. There is clearly evidence of a global reach for yield that has pushed the AUD up recently (along with other currencies such as the KRW). However, we see the USD strengthening on a firming…Continue
Added by Daologic on July 4, 2014 at 7:25am — No Comments
"The NZD has largely ignored the precipitous decline in dairy prices, instead choosing to focus on NZ’s interest rate advantage. Simply put, carry remains king. On a risk-adjusted basis, the return from a USD-funded carry trade into NZD continues to improve. This will not change until we see some movement towards pricing in US Fed Funds hikes in H1 2015 or a lift in volatility. We’re not counting on either to happen much before September. The Fed is due to update its staff projections then,…Continue