BMO Capital Markets - "the forthcoming key US data today and tomorrow will, we think, be significant for USD/JPY and equity markets. If the data are particularly strong, we suspect that a decent portion of the moves towards a weaker USD could be unwound by the end of the week, particularly if European equities move towards the “black” and US equities strike a buoyant tone. In the event of strong US data, we might look to start fading rallies or taking profit on long USD positions in AUD/USD…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 11:45am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Good Morning. Buy the dollar, sell EMFX and sell carry. It isn't about when the Fed “tapers”, it's about too many positions on the same side of the boat and the danger of a capsize.
When the Fed will slow its Treasury purchases will be data-dependent and the Funds rate may be less important in policy-making going forwards. Those are the direct takeaways from the FOMC minutes but the market tells us something different. The prospect of low rates for a long time…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 10:04am — No Comments
HSBC - "The USD rally has further to run. The currency war is getting bigger and more intense, drawing ever more protagonists into the fray. In part, this may be because of the success of those central banks who have already sought economic advantage through targeting their currency. The market has realised there is no point in fighting the central banks at this time, and the USD is the natural candidate to act as the offset to this desire for depreciation elsewhere. If anything, the risks…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 23, 2013 at 9:10am — No Comments
GBP/USD is well followed a path mentioned on my weekly count.
I believe, GBP/USD is now completed it’s pattern and looking for pull back here, I am building my long here. There are few reason for going long which are as follow:
BMO capital Markets - "Given the strength we’ve seen in EUR/USD so far this week, we suspect that the pair is roughly priced for a rather neutral outcome from Bernanke this afternoon (or even slightly dovish), with the spot level now roughly 0.70% above its recent low, printed over time in the wake of the three, consecutive lower-than-expected prints on US initial jobless claims between the weeks of April 19th and May 3rd. That would make a temporary move into the 1.2980 area today (roughly…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:00pm — No Comments
After having my last post on Usd.Cad, pair is trading in series of impulse waves to complete it’s wave Y. Expected target zone for wave Y is 1.0798. Pair will pause here soon on weekly resistance. RSI also start diverging. I expect pair will be in flat correction for wave iv of .
Long 1/2 @ 1.0233; 1/2 @ 1.02150…Continue
Added by FxMind on May 22, 2013 at 6:26am — No Comments
EUR has reached my long targets from yesterday and is currently at the resistance line 1.2930 which is also the border of the ascending channel from 1.2047. Breaking above may happen only on dollar negative news from Mr.Bernarke, so untin that and FOMC decision i expect a range trade between 1.2860 and 1.2930, significant moves may happen in later american session or tomorrow.
GOLD is again in a stand-by, waiting for the dollar to choose direction.
Aud/Jpy is in final stage of it’s triangle formation. Once pattern is complete, a person can expect a sharp thrust off towards it’s initial target of previous wave 4. For more details of target, kindly visit my previous posts.
Recommendation: short can be build up slowly here
100.85 – ⅓ position…
EUR has found a temporary support at 1.2800, but we have still chances to go to 1.2700 this week, for this we need another test of 1.2900. The price is currently very shy going upside, and seems that at any moment this would reverse to the downside again.Tomorrow will be the key as EU leaders' summit starts and later in the day mr.Bernarke will speak, finally the FOMC decision which will be a no surprise. With some good EU data and a little help from mr.Bernarke EUR may reach the 1.2990 area…Continue
EU GBP Gold and Oil Forecast 21 May 2013
Good afternoon forex,
Nice to see all seven currencies meet or exceed my expectations today as per my trading plan. Support and resistance lines tracked according to my specs and volatility was equally matched. After reviewing today's price action here's my technical blueprint.
USDCAD: Closed at 1.0239. Resistance now at or near 1.0295. Minor support at or near 1.0218 followed by stronger support at or near 1.0150. BIAS: Mildly bearish. Catalysts: CAD…Continue
Added by The Zedder on May 20, 2013 at 10:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
SHORT EUR below 1.2850 SL 1.2860 TP 1.2800-1.2770
LONG EUR above 1.2860 SL 1.2840 TP 1.2905-1.2925-1.2950
SHORT GOLD below 1370 SL 1375 TP 1300-1290
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on May 20, 2013 at 4:25am — No Comments
EUR has bounced back from the fibo level at 1.2915 and currently is trading around support of 1.2850. We are in a quite interesting technical situation. 1.2850 is a serios support level, breaking below have to take us far more down, breaking above that again will be hard too. Technically breaking of 1.2850 will take us at least 150 pips down to 1.2700, downside may extend even to 1.2620. One of these both has to bounce and the price will reverse to the upside reaching 1.3000 once again…Continue
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s rally from the 1.0014 low last week struggled at the 50% retracement point before the advance resumed and we largely expect a similar pattern of trade as the market stalls around the 76.4% retracement resistance now. A minor consolidation in the market should be followed by renewed gains through the 1.0225 resistance area (intraday pivot as well as retracement resistance). We look for good support intraday to the mid 1.01 area (some risk of a slip back to the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:17pm — No Comments
Another day - another fall, deeper and deeper we go and seems there is no end. First test of 1.2850 was unsuccessful, there was only about 30 pips pullback for now and maybe another test will follow today, breaking of 1.2850 will lead us quickly to 1.2730-1.2700. Weekly indicators are negative and heavily point to the downside with first target 1.2760. Daily indicators show that soon a correction will follow. H4, H1 and smaller frames show that correction is trying to begin. The correction…Continue
Westpac - "USD strength has been a key theme of late. The bulk of its gains however have been posted against a motley bunch of currencies. In the last month USD strength has been concentrated primarily against the likes of AUD, SEK, NZD and CHF. Over the last week JPY, NZD, AUD and CHF have ceded the most ground to the USD. EUR on the other hand, while lower over both the last week and month against the USD, has weathered the USD’s rally comparatively well.
(...) Our longer term…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 10:02am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
BMO Capital Markets - "We foresee at least two powerful factors acting in favour of the USD over the short-run: improving spreads vis-à-vis the rest of the world and reasonably light US capital outflows relative to the middle of the last decade. On the former point, there is every reason to believe that the concurrent economic weakness in Asia and inside of EMU as well as very low rates in general outside of the US will favour US rates over foreign rates. Despite this short-term…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 10:47am — No Comments