" EURUSD rallied in the wake of the ECB policy meeting yesterday which left expectations of some sort of policy action in tatters; no rate cut, not SMP suspension and no strong indication from…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 1:10pm — No Comments
"USD – can it recover?
ECB President Draghi was a little more forthcoming than usual in talking about the EUR at yesterday’s post policy meeting press conference. He highlighted the ECB’s rule of thumb…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 10:26am — No Comments
"AUD is likely to squeeze out shorts and may rise to .92/93
As discussed in recent reports, the Australian economic data has been much stronger than expected over the last week. The RBA Governor has attempted to discourage the AUD from rising by saying it is historically high. He repeated that today to parliament. However, he has been reluctant to say more.
He has emphasised that the RBA currently expects a long period of stable rates. In fact he has suggested…
Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
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LONG EUR above 1.3830 SL 1.3815 TP 1.3870-1.3890-1.3910-1.3925
SHORT EUR below 1.3925 SL 1.3950 TP…Continue
"EUR/USD – new influences
Since the end of last year investors have had to contend with a whole host of extraordinary events. The Fed has started to taper its monthly asset purchases, emerging markets have…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"US economic reports were generally weaker than expected on Wednesday, including lower ADP employment revised down from 175K to 127K in Jan, rising a little to 139K in Feb, weaker than 155K expected. Furthermore the ISM services report showed a large drop in the employment component from 56.4 in Jan to 47.5 in Feb, a low since 2010. The data suggests significant downside risk for the payrolls report on Friday.
However, there was little reaction in the US rates market. This suggests that…
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 6:44am — No Comments
EUR has tested 1.3700 support yesterday, but couldn't progress over 1.3750, finally closed the day close to 1.3730. Worse US data din't not affect the price at all, market completely ignored that and all eyes are on the ECB for today. If we are not able to progress over 1.3770 today, the pair will become under a heavy selling pressure with targets around 1.3600 and maybe below.Only above 1.3770 we shall try to reach 1.3825-30 which has rejected the price several times. If that is broken too…Continue
"The euro is a dog. Instead of deriving support from the easing of tensions in Ukraine/Crimea and the best euro zone service PMI since June 2011, as well as a surge in January retail sales (1.6%, reversing the revised 1.3% decline in December), the euro has been sold to new lows for the week and nearing the low seen before last week's February inflation report…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 12:39pm — No Comments
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
"FX Set-up: AUD Firmer on GDP, EURAUD in Play
The AUD is the top-performer on the session…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 12:28pm — No Comments
EUR is still consolidating below 1.3770. All are waiting for the next move from the ECB. Closing today below 1.3730 will make bulls' situation even more complex. Traders still avoid going SHORT and are very careful. Today more of the same can be expected with testing 1.3700 and 1.3770, which are the support and resistance levels. We have to wait for the ECB next move to see a breaking out of this range.
GOLD bounced back by the Weekly resistance 1354 and tested 1331 support area. For…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 5, 2014 at 6:10am — No Comments
"AUD/NZD – contrasting fortunes
As expected, following its overnight policy meeting the RBA reiterated the message that it is on course for a period of steady rates. The outlook, however, was tainted by its…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
EUR moved in a narrow range yesterday until american serrion, then it slided a little more on better US data and is currently trading near the well known support of 1.3720. We were not able to close the day below that support so the chances of recovery to the upside still present. Upside will be restored on H4 close above 1.3770 with first resistance 1.3830 and second one 1.3890. I expect the pair to find support at 1.3720 and at 1.3700 and finally 1.3670 in the next 2-3 days. Only breaking…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on March 4, 2014 at 6:02am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The setup for the broad USD picture weakened over the past week while presenting another important test for the short term view. In this regard, the failure against key initial resistance levels has shifted the focus back to critical support levels which should define whether a recovery phase or deeper retracement can develop. While the current oversold framework favors a recovery phase, the late-week decline raises some doubts. In turn, we highlight the key markers that should…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 3, 2014 at 8:51pm — No Comments
The week ahead could very well be the most important week of the month. Four central banks from the high income countries meet, the latest purchasing managers surveys will be released and the latest reading on the US labor market will be announced.…Continue
"EUR: Final PMI (Mar 3/5, 08:55 GMT)
The final February PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to remain unchanged from the flash estimates for both the manufacturing and services sectors.
AUD: RBA Decision/Stevens Testimony (Mar 4/6)
The RBA is likely to hold rates (as Stevens testifies to the HoR), but key is their reaction to capex intentions which imply a cliff – especially given their recent move to a 'neutral' bias indicating likely…
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:41am — No Comments
"IMM data for the week of February 25th showed speculators cutting overall exposure to the USD back a little further; the aggregate USD position dropped to a total of USD13.7bn against the major currencies in the week, the lowest aggregate long USD exposure since early November.
Investors are a little more constructive on the EUR—a trend that may extend after Eurozone data dampened speculation of more ECB easing at next week’s policy meeting. Net EUR longs rose to total +13.9k…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:30am — No Comments
EUR opened today's session with a huge downside gap. The price has tested the support at 1.3750 where buyers appeared and took the price back to 1.3780-90 resistance area. This will be the first resistance for today and the second one will be 1.3824. If we fail to record a new high today then a powerful downside move will appear. In all this bullish picture something doesn't seem right. If you look at Daily chart you can see the area 1.3810-30 is quite powerful resistance it bounced back…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 12:30pm — No Comments
"There has been much economic data reported today, and there are month-end considerations. The two main drivers of the capital markets today have been the biggest one day loss in the Chinese yuan and news that the preliminary euro zone February CPI did not tick down as many expected. The headline rate was unchanged at 0.8% y/y, though the core measure did rise to…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 12:15pm — No Comments