UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "As already mentioned in the FX weekly two weeks ago the broader JPY recovery pretty much materialized but given the decisive break of the Nikkei 225 below key-Fib.- support at 13000 (int. 38.2 %) in one go (wave A or 1) we have to expect an even deeper setback after a swift countertrend rally. If so though, there is a realistic risk that the JPY breaks key-resistances in form of internal 38.2 % retracements too, which would basically reverse its still prevailing down-trend. For…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 9:27am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
The USDJPY declined after topping at 103.73 levels as suggested 2 weeks ago, next support is at 92.55 where rejection is strongly suggested, stability above 92.55 levels is likely to bring rebound towards 95.80 levels ahead of 100.00 levels.
On the downside , stability below 92.55 on a weekly closing basis will have large bearish implication towards 84.00 ahead of 80.00 levels.
Recommendations : Buy the pair after rejection on daily from/above 92.55 levels with target towards…Continue
Added by Haitham653 on June 16, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "The USD/JPY sits balanced it the middle of a wide range from a high on 22 May (103.74) and a low on Friday night (94.99). The aggressive monetary policy stance in Japan combined with a more active government fiscal policy has created considerable upheaval. It seems the first and perhaps easier phase of the USD/JPY rally is now behind us and the outlook now could be a longer period of corrective price action as the market searches for new reasons to drive the USD/JPY…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 10:10am — No Comments
Westpac - "AUD/USD: The A$ simply does not trade as if a near term low is in sight - for this we need the Fed to push back on tapering; China expressing concern about the slowing economy; stronger Australian data and signs of Japanese buying. Prefer to see AUD closer to 0.9300 and AUD/JPY too and possibly through 90.00 before we can be happier a low is finally in place.
NZD/USD: The long-awaited unwind of extremely long speculative NZD/USD positioning has further to run, but watch out…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 9:25am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 94.99 ahead of 93.57.
EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3112 ahead of 1.3052.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, a break above 1.5684 would open the way to test the main resistance at 1.5789.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 9:13am — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Last week, we warned that although the technical factors looked constructive for the dollar, the fundamentals, in the form of the ECB not delivering on the negative deposit rate (that Draghi said he had an open mind about) and additional aid for small and medium size businesses, were less supportive. We also anticipated that the jobs data would not support notions from some Fed officials (and market participants) that tapering of the purchases of long-term assets…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:57am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "If I thought that we were in for calmer times across markets, I would be very, very sorely tempted to come over all yen bearish again, right here and right now. Was $/Y 95 the low for a mini-cycle? The BOJ meeting tomorrow is one of several highlights this week (the German Constitutional Court on Wednesday, Australian employment data Thursday and US retail sales and industrial production data later in the week are others). I doubt they will do much, since the overall…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "Key trade ideas:
Though comfortable with a medium-term bullish view on the USD, extreme volatility over unpredictable economic data releases is curbing our appetite for risk positions. 84.10 remains a key level for the DXY index.
The pullback in USD/JPY should find solid technical support around 98.60 and we’d buy again below JPY99.
We are sellers of AUD/NZD on a bounce to 1.2140.
We remain long EUR/CHF from 1.2445. Asset market turbulence has…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 5, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "As stability appears to be returning to Japanese stock and bond markets, we expect the JPY to resume weakening. The Abenomics train keeps rolling today with his so called third arrow. The first is the monetary stimulus, the second is fiscal stimulus and the third is reform to stimulate private investment. We leave the debate to others over whether these measures to be announced today will do the job, but we expect to see the three arrowed Abenomics policy continue…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 5, 2013 at 8:12am — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "Yesterday’s rise in USD/JPY implied volatility is of interest, particularly the moves at the very front-end of the curve. On balance, this development has left us questioning whether or not FX markets are signaling that an important re-pricing of Fed tapering expectations through USD/JPY is in the works. Even sub-100.00, USD/JPY still reflects a decent degree of “overshoot” relative to where interest rate spreads alone dictate the pair should trade (for instance, the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 10:47am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Trading FX has been challenging in recent weeks, with a big recovery in JPY and sharp falls in several emerging currencies, and moderate strength in European currencies.
Looking ahead, the US economy will probably continue to display a solid growth outcome. It may not completely break the shackles of fiscal consolidation, but we expect that it will continue to be strong enough to see tapering begin over the next few months and ensure the USD on balance remains…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 6:26pm — No Comments
First of all, the analysis does not have to be complicated, the more simple the better.
In the picture bellow we have the daily USD/JPY chart with Ichimoku (without the Chikou line) and the MM Lines. I also have with the aqua clour a support line at 100.71.
The pair is bullish because the price is above the kumo (cloud). The pair have been overbought for some time. The pair has topped at 103.73 and has started to correct lower. First line of defence in a correction is the…Continue
Societé Generale - "The data calendar gets busy again over the coming week, with NFPs the icing on the cake on Friday. Our economists are looking for a s lightly above-consensus number, at +210k. We’ve also got the BoE (waiting for Carney) and ECB (dovish but no cut) meetings on Thursday. Because the Fed is becoming very data-dependant, the focus will be on US employment. Three scenarios:
1.Strong US data would revive exit fears,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 3:37pm — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "USDJPY is posting a bearish weekly outside reversal. Coupled with a weekly stochastic that is pinned in overbought territory and showing signs of turning lower and a MACD at or near 30 year highs, a technical case can be made for a more pronounced downside correction in the days/weeks ahead. 100.00 – the psychological level that failed to break on multiple attempts in April will be a clear swing point to the downside from here with a break targeting the bull channel…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 2:12pm — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
Danske Bank - "Last week Bernanke opened the door for an early exit of Fed's QE programme. An exit is likely to be a very important driver for broad-based USD strength, but we still think it is too early to position for a significant move lower in EUR/USD. We expect EUR/USD to trade in the high 1.20s in the coming months, and while risks are skewed to the downside we can at least find four arguments why EUR/USD might not sky-dive this summer: 1) relative balance sheet expansion is still…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 10:07am — No Comments
BBH - "The main development in the foreign change market over the past week has been the short squeeze of the yen, and to a lesser extent, the Swiss franc.
The move coincided with a backing up in JGB yields, with the 10-year approaching the 1.0% threshold, a nearly three-fold increase since the BOJ announced its more aggressive monetary stance in early April. The Nikkei took it on the chin, falling 12.5% between Thursday's high near 16k and Friday's low just below 14k.
Many of the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 9:44am — No Comments