Goldman Sachs - "We expect continued low and possibly falling FX volatility in the early part of 2014. Later in the year, evidence of improving growth could increase the market focus on the approaching end to ultra-low interest rates in some key economies. Volatility will likely pick up again and clearer directional FX opportunities materialise. The timing of these more directional moves is uncertain and it is quite possible that they will not materialise until 2015. Much will depend on the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "We expect further modest yen weakness in 2014 as the BoJ will continue to ease monetary policy aggressively, and may even step up the pace of planned monthly asset purchases. The implementation of the sales tax hike in April will provide a key test for investor confidence in Abenomics. If the slowdown in economic growth proves greater than expected, making the achievement of their 2.0% inflation goal less likely, it will increase pressure upon the BoJ to respond…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 22, 2013 at 11:54am — No Comments
EUR/USD Current price: 1.3664
Uneventful day in the forex market, as the dollar reversed all of the mild gains seen before US opening. Worse than expected existing home sales in the US, that dropped 1.9% on rising prices, along with comments of ECB’s members…Continue
Added by Valeria B Bednarik on October 21, 2013 at 7:43pm — No Comments
With the US Debt crisis coming down to a dramatic resolution on the last day, Well, anybody surprised they pulled it to the last day??!! We have to take stock of the situation and see if anything is changing with respect to our trade set up on the pair. Namely the butterfly pattern setup.
In case you missed that write up, you can have a look here http://ning.it/1fC22zK
First of all, we had said that the long trigger for us…Continue
Added by yenmaster on October 17, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
All you USD/JPY traders out there, there is something I want to bring up here. This is a Daily Chart of the pair and we can see a good triangle pattern in play here. Now, theoretically a triangle pattern is a continuation pattern and the future move should be in the direction of the move before the start…Continue
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "USD/JPY - bearish bias – (96.00-99.00)
The dollar selling pressure is likely to grow due to the US debt ceiling and federal budget negotiations that have shut down the US government this week. The USD/JPY rate may reach the recent lowest point of 95.81 set on 8th August. However, given the successful bid for Tokyo 2020 summer Olympic announced in September, and given the expectations surrounding ‘Abenomics’, Japan's inflation expectations are growing. These…
Added by Francesc Riverola on October 3, 2013 at 4:12pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The USDJPY top-side is heavy due to the uncertainty over the ongoing US congressional budget negotiations. But despite the recent rebound, the yen has been week across the board since the beginning of September. For example EURJPY is still at highs not seen since late September of 2009. Next week the Tankan survey on 1st of October will confirm the gradual recovery of the Japanese economy and will coincide with PM Abe announcing that the sales tax will be hiked…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 27, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53 ahead of 103.74. Support is at 97.76 ahead of 96.82.
EURUSD BULLISH As a reaction to the sharp advance, there is scope for a short-term setback to unwind. Support is at 1.3501 ahead of 1.3392. Resistance is at 1.3569, a break above which would open the way to major resistance at 1.3711.
GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.6179, a break above which would open the way to 1.6381. Any downside will be…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 20, 2013 at 7:00am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "Global yields are up significantly in recent weeks, except in Japan where the BoJ's aggressive and committed QQE policy is keeping a lid on yields. Consequently, JPY's yield disadvantage is growing and this is likely to see further weakness in JPY. Its near term direction may depend also on degrees of risk aversion and potential for EM market upheaval to drag on investor confidence. But EM and Syria fears are not unduly weakening global equities or generating a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 6, 2013 at 9:54am — No Comments
TD Securities - "JPY: USD/JPY might have done enough to avert further weakness near-term at least. Spot is testing thin “cloud” chart resistance in the high 98s as the week closes out but might have struck an important, short-term low already via gains through 97.69, a minor, inverse Head & Shoulders neckline (red trend line). If this pattern gets any further traction—specifically if USD/JPY breaks trend resistance off the May peak at 99.35/40 (around where the market…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 26, 2013 at 9:23am — No Comments
ANZ - "USD/JPY: The dips from the tests of 103.80 and 101.50 in recent months are seen as interim legs within a broader corrective pattern. The near term bias is that the recent dip below 0.9650 formed a base from which USD/JPY should be able to post another push into the 101.50-103.80 area in coming weeks.
Assuming that such a move shows signs of faltering, this profile would suggest that another corrective pullback should then develop. However, that pullback should be…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 23, 2013 at 4:09pm — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "EUR: The euro is continuing to outperform alongside the US dollar likely supported by euro-zone residents repatriating funds from overseas. Heightened QE tapering expectations are leading to a significant tightening in global external financing conditions boosting the appeal of the low yielding but more liquid euro and US dollar. The euro-zone’s widening current account surplus also adds to the euro’s relative appeal compared to the US dollar in the current…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 22, 2013 at 3:23pm — No Comments
ING Bank - "The Fed’s campaign to reinforce a message that tapering is not tightening has seen the USD hand back the gains that by early July had, on some measures, taken it to its highest level for three years. Yet we feel that its recent weakening needs to be placed in the context of a USD that is still well within the ranges established so far in 2013. Our base case remains very much for the USD to enjoy a strong recovery into year-end, even if the catalyst for its gains is in danger of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 15, 2013 at 11:19am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "While USD/JPY has kept the door open to resume its broader up-trend straight away with the defense of key-Fib.- support at 95.62 (minor 76.4 %) we still see greater down- risks for EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY. Particularly EUR/JPY looks vulnerable as it just broke below daily trend line support (now resistance at 129.73), which suggests that the downside is open for a test of 124.97/95 (pivots) and 123.98 (C = A) if not for an extension to 121.04 (int. 38.2 %). Only above 129.73 the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 14, 2013 at 4:10pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL With the MACD threatening to cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 2, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
National Australia Bank - "We remain short of AUD/USD from 0.9210 with a stop at 0.9350.
We have taken profit at 1.1469 on our short AUD/NZD position established at 1.1813.
EUR/USD is at the very top of the trading range we have been talking about for the last four weeks. In the absence of US data disappointments, look to fade this rally.
Our recommendation to buy USD/JPY at 100.29 proved to be a bad trade: either the wrong entry level, the wrong time, or both. We still expect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 4:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists, indicated by the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3253 ahead of 1.3166
USDJPY NEUTRAL The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 99.41 ahead of 100.87.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is testing the critical resistance at 1.5394, since Thursday. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:39pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "Euro: The euro managed to push through the Bernanke-induced high set on July 11 just above $1.3200 and raced to $1.33 before running out of steam. After posting a seemingly bullish outside up day on Thursday (July 25), the euro consolidated in less than half a cent range before the weekend.
The euro has approached a downtrend line drawn off the 2011 high near $1.4940, the Feb 2013 high just above $1.3700, and June high a little above $1.34. It…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 28, 2013 at 9:02pm — No Comments
Goldman Sachs - "EUR/$: Our positive stance on the EUR is due to the stronger BBoP trend for the Euro area. In contrast to the weaker balance for the US, this structural imbalance implies a gradually weaker USD and a stronger EUR. Downside risk remains in the Euro area, with growth remaining weak and the ECB signaling that it expects to keep rates low, with a downward bias, for ‘an extended period’. However in the longer run – and after more ‘muddling through’ – we expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments