TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s rally from the 1.0014 low last week struggled at the 50% retracement point before the advance resumed and we largely expect a similar pattern of trade as the market stalls around the 76.4% retracement resistance now. A minor consolidation in the market should be followed by renewed gains through the 1.0225 resistance area (intraday pivot as well as retracement resistance). We look for good support intraday to the mid 1.01 area (some risk of a slip back to the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 16, 2013 at 7:17pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
TD Securities - "We have upgraded our outlook for the USD across a broad front. We are adjusting our views to reflect some market developments that have occurred a little more rapidly than we had expected (such as the push up in USD/JPY). But we are also recognising the emergence of some trends that we feel support our long-held view that the USD’s secular bear trend is very mature and is poised to show signs of a further recovery.
(...) We have upgraded out USD/JPY forecast to reflect…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 14, 2013 at 3:02pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The FX markets are now under the influence of a trilogy of themes: the American economic revival, diverging monetary policy expectations and the (unfinished) euro area (EA) crisis.
Those themes all point in the same direction: a stronger dollar. Dollar strength is now far less dependent on risk conditions; the US economic outperformance and the fears of a not-too-distant Fed exit imply that the dollar is no longer a funding currency of choice in the carry trade. The…
National Bank Financial - "The Bank of Canada is one of the few major central banks that has remained relatively passive regarding its currency. That stance may have inflated the degree of the loonie’s overvaluation and hurt our exporters, particularly manufacturers, who have seen their US market share shrink dramatically. While domestic demand picked up the slack in recent years, it would be unwise to expect it to continue compensating for underperforming exports. Canada will need exports…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 4:52pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9437, a break above which would open 0.9499. Support is at 0.9364, a breach here would expose 0.9320.
AUDUSD BEARISH As bear trend persists, there is potential for a test of the major support area at 1.0115 and 1.0103. Resistance is at 1.0254.
USDCAD BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9987. A closing break below this would be further negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 0.9933. Resistance is at 1.0083 ahead of 1.0132."
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 9:08am — No Comments
Societé Generale - "Markets are risk friendly. Benoit Anne sent out his latest EM investor survey results and they are, basically, happier than a month ago. It seems that the palliative effects of global easy money are washing away EM-specific concerns about that downgraded EM growth expectations and softer commodity prices. And so, USD/MXN attacks 12, USD/CAD tests parity, AUD refuses to break through 1.0150, XO spreads test 2011 lows, etc etc. There isn't enough news to drive these trends…Continue
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair is held by the strong support area at 1.0084/71. A break here would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.0175 ahead of 1.0214.
EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 1.2312 ahead of 1.2349. Support is at 1.2240 and 1.2214.
EURGBP BEARISH The cross is testing important support at 0.8410. A closing break below would be a strong bearish development; triggering deeper sell-off to 0.8285.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 30, 2013 at 9:30am — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD is breaking out of the consolidation pattern that trapped the market in a tight range through the latter part of last week (above 1.0250/55) with a little more intent. Initial gains were capped in the 1.0270 area but the push higher seen so far today should see USD/CAD make minor new highs (above 1.0291) at least near-term. We rather think that the move implies scope for a push beyond the recent 1.0341 peak. We spot short-term support now at 1.0270 intraday, stronger…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 6:09pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.2974 ahead of 1.2920. There’s an important resistance at 1.3228.
USDCHF BEARISH As long as resistance at 0.9345 holds, there is scope for resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9259 ahead of 0.9207.
AUDUSD BEARISH There’s scope for more downside with the trending indicators pointing south. Support is at 1.0202 ahead of 1.0115. Resistance is at 1.0359 ahead of 1.0398.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0294, a break above this would open…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 22, 2013 at 10:51am — No Comments
UBS - "Although USDCAD has made material gains over the last 9 months, the market is still very long CAD and buying reached a peak in mid-Q1 this year. The weak run of data and progressively softer policy pronouncements have prompted selling, but compared to the cumulative buying since 2009 there is a lot of liquidation potential, especially when compared to currencies like the AUD and NOK which are now either flat or heavily short on a structural level. We believe that CAD longs have been…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 17, 2013 at 7:34am — No Comments
Royal Bank of Scotland - "We do not expect any policy shift by the Bank of Canada (BoC) at its policy decision on 17 April. In our opinion, the data since the 6 March decision is not enough to warrant a material change in policy in either direction. We also do not think the data in the past quarter is enough to cause BoC officials to dramatically alter their outlook in the quarterly Monetary Policy Report (MPR), which will be released at the same time. In the January MPR, BoC officials…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 16, 2013 at 2:01pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Upside should be limited and there is a strong resistance at 1.3115. While this holds, there is scope for a break below support at 1.2962, exposing 1.2869.
AUDUSD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0306 holds, there is scope for further upside in the near-term. Resistance is at 1.0497, a break above would open 1.0604.
USDCAD NEUTRAL Near-term directional triggers are at 1.0251 and 1.0089."
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 9, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Strong resistance at 1.2900 and 1.2935 should hold any upside. The risk is for rejection and resumption of weakness. Support is at 1.2751 ahead of 1.2662.
USDCHF BULLISH There is a major support at 0.9429. While this holds on closing basis, there is potential for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9528 ahead of 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.0497, a break above would leave little resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0386 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on April 2, 2013 at 6:58am — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s technical picture has deteriorated somewhat today, in our opinion. We still think the market is consolidating but we had highlighted the 1.0180/85 area as important support for funds and the weakness in the USD below this support zone this morning tips the balance in favour of a bit more softness in the market from here. We may be looking at a more substantial retracement of the 0.99/1.0340 rally in the next week or so, in other words—potentially towards the 1.01…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 6:12pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH The pair bounced sharply yesterday after testing important support at 0.9359. While this holds on closing basis, there is scope for a move higher to 0.9567.
AUDUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing north, setbacks will be limited. There is no major resistance until 1.0599. Support is at 1.0333.
USDCAD BULLISH While support at 1.0181 holds, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 1.0285 ahead of 1.0342."
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 26, 2013 at 9:12am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The AUD and the CAD have been the best performing G10 currencies on a 1 day view on the back of the bailout deal from Cyprus. These currencies continue to behave as a reasonable litmus test for ‘risk on’ behaviour although the outlook for both have recently been complicated by uncertainties over the direction of domestic central bank policy. We have remained buyers of AUD/USD on dips for months on the premise that as long as the market is awash with liquidity there would be…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 25, 2013 at 10:24am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on the next major support at 1.2662, a break below this would be a bearish development in the long term. Resistance is at 1.2996 ahead of 1.3107.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Only a closing break above strong resistance at 1.0414 would confirm the recent strength, opening 1.0458 and then 1.0599. Support is at 1.0300.
USDCAD BULLISH The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. A break above 1.0296 would open 1.0366 and then 1.0477A. Support is at 1.0214…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 20, 2013 at 9:39am — No Comments
TD Securities - "The twin rejections at 1.0340 and the subsequent loss of short-term range support and the double top neckline trigger at 1.0257 clearly puts a softer spin on the charts for USD/CAD. Trend momentum has turned negative on the short-term term studies, suggesting limited scope for USD/CAD gains at the moment. But downside scope may also be limited. The measured move target derived from the 1.0340 double top has already been largely reached (1.0174). The USD has, so far, found…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 18, 2013 at 6:43pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "(...) now UK economic surprises are at almost their most negative level ever suggesting we are closer to a turning point. Surely Carney will do what must be done to ease so that event is yet to happen. The question is how far we could run to the topside in EURGBP before it peaks. From a valuation point of view, we are unsurprisingly getting to extremes as is typical in a regime break. The models then tend to follow and lag spot. More importantly, we moved to the more…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 13, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments