"USD/CAD has traded steadily lower since peaking above 1.05 late last week. The failure to hold those gains has proven to be a significant setback for the market but, with the spot level now 100 ticks or so off the peak seen Thursday, we would expect some buying interest to re-emerge sooner rather than later. The hourly chart, above, suggests that selling pressure is easing at least, via the downward sloping wedge pattern that has shaped trade since last Thursday’s high. That does not…Continue
Added by Daologic on November 19, 2013 at 7:26am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "The medium term bearish setup remains intact for the commodity currencies highlighted by this week’s breakdown from the short term range for AUD/USD. This follows the failure against important resistance in the .9300/.9345 area which should continue to act as a short term ceiling. In turn, new lows should lead to a closer test of the next line of important support in the .8855/8770 zone. Note this area includes the key channel support from the 2011 cycle peak, as well as the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 6, 2013 at 3:50pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD’s late July slide has failed to extend significantly—so far. Over the past week, the trend down has started to flatten out and the short-term candle chart (6-hour bars) shows some signs, via the relatively long upper and lower “shadows” (the tails on the candle bodies), that the market is less sure about the near-term direction. Short-term trend resistance (1.0281) is coming under pressure at the start of our session today and a push through here may yield a rebound…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:53pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD has stabilized but the “bounce” in spot so far is limited. From a short-term technical point of view though, there are a couple of things worth noting. We noted earlier in the week that the 1.0250/80 zone should be supportive for the USD and, for all the heavy tone in the USD through the latter part of the week, there has been no real follow through on the downside beyond this point. Additionally, there is evidence from the 6-hour candle charts of some modest bargain…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 26, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "The market is consolidating last week’s drop and, pattern-wise, the short- term implications are tilting negative. The market has made two runs at getting back above 1.0425/30 in the past few sessions with no success. The intervening low at 1.0360 is effectively key, short-term support now, is a small double top trigger (implies a retest of 1.0290/1.03 on a break down). The rebound from last Thursday’s low is also forming a bear flag or wedge pattern. Right around current…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 15, 2013 at 4:53pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "On the charts, the overbought condition in USD/CAD that we worried about earlier in the week has been at least partially corrected. The risk of a correction from the 1.06+ area through support around 1.05 that we flagged has also been realized and USD/CAD has slipped back below support at 1.0421. With support in the low 1.03 area holding though, we are inclined to look for a push back to the upper 1.04s now. We want to buy USD dips still.
(...) Price action in the FX…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 11, 2013 at 12:00pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD continues to consolidate in the short-term. The consolidation channel in place since last week’s 1.06+ peak on the hourly chart capped the market earlier in the session around 1.0565 and the sharp swing lower now looks to be abating as the move extended below 1.0525, the channel base. A big, bullish “hammer” signal formed over the last hour’s worth of trade and, with support in the low 1.05s broadly holding this test, the short-term risk is shifting back to a test of…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 5:33pm — No Comments
Brown Brothers Harriman - "The euro has taken out the trend line objective we have been highlighting that came in near $1.2850. That area, and perhaps extending toward $1.2900 may offer fresh selling opportunities on corrective upticks. Our next target is the $1.2680-$1.2750 area. The euro-dollar exchange rate continues to track the US-German 2-year rate differential. That spread has widened sharply from about 8 bp on June 20 to nearly 29 bp before the weekend, a new high for the year.…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 7, 2013 at 6:09pm — No Comments
TD Securities - "We are bearish on EUR/USD. While the Fed appears to be inching towards the QE exit, policy makers in Europe have made it clear that it is premature to even talk about removing policy accommodation which will remain in place for the "foreseeable future".
(...) Eurozone growth trends, especially in the peripheral economies, remain sluggish and EZ unemployment has reached record highs, in contrast to the relatively better macro-economic trends in the US. Peripheral…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 3:10pm — No Comments
JP Morgan - "While the price action over the past week has seen commodity currencies shift into a range against a number of important levels, the overall bearish risks have not been eliminated. Again, this is in line with the bearish shift and violation of critical support levels for both AUD/USD and NZD/USD over the past few weeks. Importantly, USD/CAD appears ready to play catch up given the sharp advance and extension into the medium term range highs over the past two weeks. In line with…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 3, 2013 at 9:28am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Yesterday the pair closed below the strong support at 1.3034. The risk is for further downside with next support at 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3151.
AUDUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, we expect the resistance at 0.9407 to hold on closing basis. Support is at 0.9143. A closing break below this will trigger deeper sell-off.
USDCAD BULLISH As a reaction to a sharp advance the pair is consolidating. Support at 1.0396 should hold for now. Resistance…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 27, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
TD Securities - "USD/CAD continues to consolidate.. Short-term price action and studies suggest that the bull trend has lost some momentum over the past day or so, leaving the door open perhaps for a deeper correction of the sharp gains seen over the past week, especially of losses accumulate just a bit more from here. We still spot good, short-term support in the upper 1.04 area intraday, however, and feel that the underlying trend up will be clearly revived by gains through the 1.0540/50…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 26, 2013 at 5:36pm — No Comments
UBS - "Staying with USDCAD upside stance but exploit skew: We are selling a 25 Jul 13 expiry USD call / CAD put with a 1.0765 strike for 0.43% of face value, spot reference 1.0530. This will complement our existing long position in a same-date 1.0550 USD call / CAD put (position established 17 Apr 13 for 0.58 % of face) into a call spread. Last week Fed tapering expectations and softer Canadian data (CPI and retail sales) led to a sharp jump in USDCAD implied volatility and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 25, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
BMO Capital Markets - "Although I have been calling for a continued move higher in USD/CAD for over a month, even I admit to being somewhat surprised by yesterday’s move through 1.0550. The pace of the move since Bernanke’s press conference has been somewhat breathtaking. It naturally lends itself to the question of whether USDCAD has gotten overbought. I don’t believe USD/CAD is ridiculously overbought yet. I would characterize it is just starting to get slightly frothy. I base that on a…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 25, 2013 at 10:43am — No Comments
UBS - "Any post-FOMC pullback in USDCAD towards strong technical support at 1.0120 should offer dip-buying opportunities for those looking to exploit upside potential into the Bank of Canada's July 17 meeting."
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
Westpac - "We have taken profit on the USD/CAD leg of our long CAD basket today (Friday) for a 1.2% gain. The trade was entered on 22 May (along with EUR/CAD), motivated by a mix of bullish G10 model signals for CAD and expectations that the Canadian economy was on the cusp of a firm patch. The local data in recent sessions has played up that theme in spades - Q1 GDP rose 2.5% vs 2.3% expected, April building permits rose 10.5% vs -3% expected, the May IVEY PMI rose to 63.1 vs 56 expected…Continue
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The pair is consolidating and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. The risk is for resumption of weakness, and resistance at 0.9843 should hold. Support is at 0.9591 ahead of 0.9528.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support holds on closing basis at 1.0266, the potential is for resumption of the bull trend. Resistance is at 1.0421 ahead of 1.0524.
EURCHF BULLISH There is a strong support at 1.2329. While this holds and as MACD is above its zero line, the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 5, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
JP Morgan - "From a technical perspective, the medium term rally phase for the USD has accelerated over the past few weeks in line with the backup in US rates. While the short term setup can allow for some pause, the broad-based strength implies an improved technical backdrop and increased risk that a deeper rally phase is underway. The key development for the improved setup is the push through the 2012 highs for the JPM USD Index (84.44) and the DXY (84.10). Moreover, the May close will…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 2:27pm — No Comments