Outlook: Play the range
ST Resistance: 0.8050 (ahead of 0.8120)
ST Support: 0.7780 (ahead of 0.7700)
Last week, the 0.8000 level stamped its mark as serious
resistance. With NZD/USD finding a base above 0.79 late
last week, we remain some distance from key support
Added by Daologic on October 20, 2014 at 7:26am — No Comments
EUR slowly looses positions from last Wednesday's upside jump and is trading currently at the 1.2750 support. Next stronger support is at 1.2700, for which i ecpect to hold and the recovery to continue to 1.2900 and above. However if for some reason we have a Daily close below 1.2700, this will reopen the way back to 1.2540 and below. This week we do not have any so much important news, except PMI data on Thursday and US jobless claims later the same day.
GOLD is locked within the…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 20, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
"CADJPY managed to only stabilize briefly yesterday before sliding to new, short-term cycle lows today which more or less completes a full retracement of the August/September rally. We still think risks are skewed to the downside here though and feel that weakness below 92.75 is likely to see the CAD drop extend to 90.…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 16, 2014 at 1:45pm — No Comments
"The EUR bears are in full control so that a re-test of the 2012 and 2010 lows has become likely.
The defense of the main T-junction at 1.2502 (76.4 %) in EUR/USD opened the door for an internal 4th wave recovery to 1.2959 (int. 38.2 %), where a fresh selling opportunity would be given. Yesterday's failure to clear first resistance at 1.2797 (monthly breakout line) could however be an indication that the internal 3rd wave decline is not done yet, which keeps 1.2418 (wave 3 projection)…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 14, 2014 at 4:45am — No Comments
Outlook: Play the range
ST Resistance: 0.7960 (ahead of 0.8050)
ST Support: 0.7684 (ahead of 0.7525)
NZD/USD remains comfortably within the 0.77 – 0.80 range it has kept for two weeks now. Momentum indicators no longer signal that NZD/USD is ‘oversold’, reducing the odds of a significant near-term…
Added by Daologic on October 13, 2014 at 9:23am — No Comments
EUR was unable to reach 1.2350 weekly target as the last downside push has been stopped by the 1.2500 level. A powerful recovery followed reaching 1.2800. Currently we are above the main daily support @ 1.2650 and seems the recovery is going to continue with first target 1.2730 and second one at 1.2800 finally 1.3000. However it is too early to say that any downside is over as the daily indicators are showing unstable recovery. Today is a non-working day for USA, Canada and Japan, markets…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 13, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
"USDCAD traded heavily this week, with the USD’s corrective undertone overshadowing a 5% drop in WTI
crude—something that ordinarily might have weighed more obviously on the CAD. Big technical reversal
signals (daily and, potentially, weekly) in the high 1.12s this week—right where USDCAD peaked in March— suggest an important, short-term (at least) top has formed. We want to sell USD gains back to near 1.1200 in the coming week. "
"Broad-based dollar strength to continue, subject to positioning adjustments.
We expect the dollar to continue outperforming within G10 heading into year-end. Policy differentials will consolidate in the dollar's favour and the latest round of data suggest that the balance of risks has shifted towards the Fed becoming more assertive. On top of the strong September payrolls report, our economists note that September ISM figures appeared 'consistent with 5% real GDP growth and 300k'…
Added by Daologic on October 7, 2014 at 5:33am — No Comments
Weekly charts tell a similar story to the daily picture, only from a longer-term point of view; the EUR sell-off remains entrenched but somewhat extended; loss of support around 1.2750/90 leaves the EUR vulnerable to a drop back to the 1.20 if the last retracement support derived from the 2012/2014 rally at…Continue
Outlook: Sell a rally
ST Resistance: 0.7890 (ahead of 0.7960)
ST Support: 0.7684 (ahead of 0.7460)
NZD/USD begins this week near its 2014 lows, with a base forming at 0.7750. The 2013 low of 0.7784 marks the first line of serious support, with a dearth of technical supports below that. (NB: Reuters marks…
Added by Daologic on October 6, 2014 at 7:52am — No Comments
EUR closed another week at the lowest price with still absolutely no signs of recovery. Seems that the target is the Monthly SMA200 at 1.2220, but the pair may even try an attempt to go below. I doubt it will succeed. This week's target will be 1.2350. Daily resistance is 1.2690 and the pair has no chances of breaking it higher. EUR is now extremely bearish as all bulls are dead and the dollar makes more gains after a lot better than expected NFP data. There is no so important data releases…Continue
Added by Vladimir Mihaylov on October 6, 2014 at 5:15am — No Comments
Start of the downtrend: 1.3655
Macro: The diverging stance between FED and ECB. FED has started to tighten the monetary conditions since the start of tapering process. ECB has eased the monetary conditions. This conditions will persist untill the inflation in the EZ will start to revive to ECB commfort levels (2-3%).
Correction: There have been no correction yet. I wait for a correction to sell EURUSD.
Yesterday, somehow, governor Draghi has disappointed the markets. He left out, with an unclear view, some fine details about the ABS and bond purchase programm.
I quote from Rabobank: " Draghi’s accompanying press conference was somewhat of a disappointment, as a lot of details were left out. Most importantly, Draghi did not say a word about risks to the inflation (what happened to “broadly balanced”?), nor did he give any specific details on the size of the purchase programmes –…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 3, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments
"We already own some upside cover in EURUSD via a 1.31 EUR call suggested a month ago but we think the extended move lower in EURUSD is at even greater risk of stalling now and that spot levels are attractive for a buyers looking for a short-term bounce."
"Short-term rate spreads suggest EURUSD fair value is close to 1.30 right now. The fundamental drivers of the recent EUR decline—diverging data trends and yield differentials—are now moving the other way. EURUSD perhaps has to catch…Continue
On the charts, the tumble on funds over the past two days weakens the uptrend in the market and while the market has recovered from the overnight push below 1.11, price action was weak enough on the charts (forming a bearish engulfing signal on the daily candle) to raise the risk of a deeper correction from here; at the very least, we have to reckon with strong…Continue
Added by Daologic on October 2, 2014 at 11:32am — No Comments
"Open 1.1178 Range 1.1135/1.1179 Prev. Close 1.1164
USDCAD continues to pressure resistance at 1.1174 on the charts (daily channel top) and there is speculation that the barrier interest at 1.12 is also helping keep USDCAD capped at present.…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 12:03pm — No Comments
"Support 1.1125 Resistance 1.1175
The main focus today will be July GDP released at 13.30 BST. Domestic offers are lined up towards the recent…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 11:57am — No Comments
"US personal income and spending in August were much better than a month earlier. In nominal terms, personal income grew by 0.3% and spending by 0.5%. In the same report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was published: the PCE deflator fell to 1.5% year-on-year, from 1.6%. The consensus expectation was 1.4%, so the slide in inflation was smaller than had been feared. The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 1.5%. The fall in inflation has led to several Fed doves asking for…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments
"Negative nominal rates are a powerful medium-term EUR negative and markets aren't trading like EUR/USD positioning is stretched. Stay short as a confirmed break of 1.2671 could lead to an early test of multi-year lows. While GBP/USD should also fall, short EUR/GBP looks a more compelling monetary policy divergence play. RBNZ Governor Wheeler's talk of possible currency intervention is significant and supports our view that NZD/CAD falls further. We add short AUD/CAD as iron ore prices are…Continue
Added by Daologic on September 29, 2014 at 7:49am — No Comments
Outlook: Sell a rally
ST Resistance: 0.7960 (ahead of 0.8050)
ST Support: 0.7810 (ahead of 0.7684)
The RBNZ’s tirade against the NZD last week saw the 2014-low convincingly broken. That should provide firm resistance on the upside. There are few technical supports ahead of a full retracement of the June…