"(...)US housing sluggish to resume gains and is a factor keeping the USD from a stronger performance.
The NAHB US Housing market index, one of the most current/forward looking housing indicators was softer than projected and remained below the neutral 50 line for a third month in April. The housing market appears to have lost momentum since around mid-2013. Prices are still up significantly from lows, but activity growth appears…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 16, 2014 at 4:02am — No Comments
USDCAD: Building a Base
Open 1.0995 Range 1.0960/1.1001c Prev. Close 1.0962…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 15, 2014 at 12:12pm — No Comments
Added by Daologic on April 15, 2014 at 12:07pm — No Comments
The USD index is bouncing along the bottom of a long term downtrend and since disinflation has also been evident in the US, the soft tone of the currency no doubt has been quietly welcomed by the US authorities. A stronger USD, however, would provide strong relief for other central banks. Yesterday’s solid US retail sales data has helped support the greenback, but a whole round of better US data is likely…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 15, 2014 at 9:53am — No Comments
"The backdrop for the short term USD view has deteriorated over the past several weeks while raising the risk that a deeper corrective phase is underway. Importantly, this follows the failure against a number of important resistance levels for the DXY, JPM USD Index despite signs of a potential upside…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 3:30pm — No Comments
"The big question whether a countertrend rally top is already in place at 1.3967 remains unanswered for the time being. The prospects of this being the case are however remaining good as long as 1.3898 (minor 76.4 %) is not broken decisively. That said and in order to confirm the countertrend rally top, it takes…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments
"FX Set-up: Draghi—Keeping the Threat Alive…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 12:00pm — No Comments
"After seeing long positions cut for nine consecutive weeks, USD net implied positioning turned short for the first time in six months, moving from 4% of open interest to -5%. The TFF report showed that hedge funds increased short positions while asset manager continue to add dollar longs. Speculative EUR longs fell for the third consecutive week, led by hedge funds. Speculative JPY shorts…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 10:04am — No Comments
ECB President Draghi took clear aim at the EUR on Saturday by remarking that “a further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus”. The comments came following the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments
A sequence of 3 up weeks ended with strong selling last week - emphasising the importance of a 50% correction point. There are 3 main reasons we look for the downside to extend.
1) Prices are 'hugging the lower end of a negative Keltner channel. 2) The key 13 day moving average is capping rallies.
3) CHF showing broad strength.
Potential for .8712 and .8676.…Continue
Added by Alan Collins on April 14, 2014 at 5:59am — No Comments
"The pain trade in the currency markets is the renewed weakness of the dollar against the euro, yen, Swiss franc and Australian dollar. Despite US jobless claims falling to its lowest levels since 2007, the greenback has been sold since March's Federal Open Market Committee minutes were published. In the very near term dollar longs may still be cut. But the market's position adjustment is also painful for policymakers outside the US seeking weaker domestic currencies against the greenback.…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
"Dollar Breakout or Range-Bound?
The US dollar had a difficult week. It lost ground against all the major currencies. Falling interest rates, sparked by the FOMC minutes that reassured investors that an early US rate…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:30am — No Comments
USDJPY’s slide to the low end of the Feb-Apr consolidation range leaves the USD looking delicately poised. With daily cloud support failing to hold the market this week, the gently rising range (bear flag) developed over the past few weeks may be heralding more pronounced USD weakness ahead. A clear push below…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:24am — No Comments
A drop under short-term support at 1.3870 should see the EUR ease back to 1.3775/00 at least.
EURUSD is again testing the waters above long-term trend resistance of the 2008 peak after rebounding from weekly channel support at 1.3695. Gains may well be constrained by stronger (more recent, more…
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments
EUR has lost almost 50 pips since Friday's close, seems that dollar recovery is going on at the moment. It can be stopped only above 1.3875 as the price is below that and below 1.3850 further downside is expected with targets below 1.3820. The pair is quite well supported around 1.3800 and any dips to there will be used to open a new LONG positions.
GOLD has bulit a new support at 1319 and as the price is above that more upside is expected. Next resistance is 1335, to continue the upside…
GBP/USD –the price formed an evening star candlestick pattern (circled on the chart above) near a key 1.6812 resistance, being formed by the 138.2% Fibonacci projection from the Jul-Oct 2013 impulse wave. Also, weekly MACD had turned bearish, indicating a long-term change in sentiment looming. These signals…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 3:51am — No Comments
"The EUR remains reluctant to yield ground
The buoyancy of EUR/USD has been a theme that has wrong-footed many investors over the past two years. While we anticipated that USD weakness would allow EUR/USD to remain well supported in 2013, more recently we have been arguing that the improvement in US…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 12, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments
"Dollar’s desert exile soon to end For many market participants, there appears no end to dollar disappointment. For James Malcolm, this is the best reason yet to hope for a turnaround. He argues that the structural legacy long in dollars has washed out, and…Continue
"ECB Action: Just a Matter of Time?
The Managing Director of the IMF and the chief economist are making no bones about it. More action by the ECB is inevitable. It is "just a question of timing," says Lagarde and "sooner was better than later", chimed…
Correlations between USD/JPY and Japanese equities have become more erratic. But Nikkei's 2.4% decline today brings Year-to-date falls above 14%. Anticipate more pressure on those sitting more in hope than expectation on remaining JPY shorts.
Potentially a downside risk for USD/JPY next few days is a higher USD/CNH and USD/CNY. Levels of complacency have been running high that (a) the USD/China up move stalls…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 10:24am — No Comments