UBS - "Following Chairman Bernanke's semi-annual Congressional testimony, investors are likely to look ahead to the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30-31, manufacturing ISM data on August 1 and July's payrolls on August 2. In addition, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will hold their next monthly meetings on August 1.
(...) Though financial markets interpreted Bernanke's testimony as dovish, the Fed remains on track to start tapering its asset…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 2:42pm — No Comments
(this info was published 8h ago so please take this in count)
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5283; which should be held on a closing basis. Initial support is at 1.5018 ahead of 1.4814.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.9367. A break below this would be negative. On the upside,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 13, 2013 at 1:22pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD and GBPUSD have experienced two major regimes over the last couple of decades. In the 1990s both currency pairs tended to weaken when investors were risk seeking while over the last decade both exchange rates have strengthened when stock markets have been rallying.
The shifting experience of the euro and the pound against the dollar appears to have resulted from the Fed changing policy stance after the internet bubble burst in 2000-2001, and consistently setting interest…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 11, 2013 at 10:35am — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Critical resistance is at 1.2485. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 1.2650. Downside should be limited, with support at 1.2371.
EURGBP BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 0.8656, which was tested yesterday. With the momentum tools crossing higher, a closing break above this would trigger further upside. Support is at 0.8563 ahead of 0.8469.
EURJPY BULLISH Downside should be limited, and we expect the support at 128.04 to hold.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 10, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength this morning and the potential is for the test of key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 99.26.
GBPUSD BEARISH Sharp fall seen on Friday is trading just above the key support 1.4832. A closing break below this would be negative. Resistance is at 1.5080.
USDCHF BULLISH Friday the pair closed above the resistance at 0.9568. This was positive opening 0.9839. Support is at 0.9560.
EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar is entering a perfect storm that should see the currency rallying this year to 1.20, 110, 1.41 and 1.03 against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc respectively.
First, June's payrolls shows the Federal Reserve is on track to start tapering its asset purchases from the September 17-18 Open Market Committee meeting. Second, the European Central Bank in contrast announced an important dovish shift in policy, signalling interest rates would remain at present levels or…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 7, 2013 at 5:52pm — No Comments
UBS - "We have held a negative GBPUSD view for all of 2013, with our key argument being the likelihood of a major monetary policy shift in a dovish direction under the new Carney administration. We reflected this via a short GBPUSD trade recommendation established on 14 Feb (we bought a 6-month 15 Aug expiry 1.4800 strike GBP put / USD call with spot at 1.5500 for 0.9975% of face), arguing that both GBP downside and cable implied volatility were underpriced given the risks involved,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 5, 2013 at 3:45pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.3078.
USDJPY BULLISH Our focus is on the key resistance at 103.74. Downside should be limited with support at 98.16.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair closed below the key support at 1.5183. This was a strong bearish development, exposing 1.5009. Resistance is at 1.5279.
USDCHF BULLISH Any recovery should be limited with a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3150.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair is trading just below the strong resistance at 99.94. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 103.74. Support is at 99.18 ahead of 96.82.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Weakness is held by the key support at 1.5183, which was tested on Friday. A closing break below this would a strong bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 11:43am — No Comments
UBS - "Several of the world's major currencies are experiencing or are close to important turning points. The dollar is starting to trend higher following Chairman Bernanke's suggestion after the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting that the central bank may taper its asset purchases later this year. Similarly, the yen, despite volatility over the last few weeks, is set to trend lower following the Bank of Japan's decision on April 4 to double the monetary base. Our view that the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 2:50pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF Bearish. Any upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 1.2384. Support is at 1.2278 ahead of 1.2196
EURGBP Neutral. The cross again bounced from the support at 0.8475. Resistance is at 0.8607 ahead of 0.8656. A closing break below 0.8475 would be negative opening 0.8398.
EURJPY Neutral. Resistance at 130.43 holds the upside move. A break above this would open 133.80. Support is at 124.72; a closing break below this would be negative.
EURUSD Bearish. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 9:05am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Yesterday the pair closed below the strong support at 1.3034. The risk is for further downside with next support at 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3151.
AUDUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, we expect the resistance at 0.9407 to hold on closing basis. Support is at 0.9143. A closing break below this will trigger deeper sell-off.
USDCAD BULLISH As a reaction to a sharp advance the pair is consolidating. Support at 1.0396 should hold for now. Resistance…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 27, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
UBS - "Staying with USDCAD upside stance but exploit skew: We are selling a 25 Jul 13 expiry USD call / CAD put with a 1.0765 strike for 0.43% of face value, spot reference 1.0530. This will complement our existing long position in a same-date 1.0550 USD call / CAD put (position established 17 Apr 13 for 0.58 % of face) into a call spread. Last week Fed tapering expectations and softer Canadian data (CPI and retail sales) led to a sharp jump in USDCAD implied volatility and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 25, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
UBS - "The bullish case for the dollar has been significantly boosted by Chairman Bernanke signaling the Federal Reserve is prepared to start slowing down its pace of asset purchases later this year and to freeze its balance sheet expansion altogether by the middle of next year. That is in line with our view that the Fed will be the first of the major central banks to exit unconventional monetary policy.
Unsurprisingly, higher yielding emerging market and commodity currencies have…
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
UBS - "Any post-FOMC pullback in USDCAD towards strong technical support at 1.0120 should offer dip-buying opportunities for those looking to exploit upside potential into the Bank of Canada's July 17 meeting."
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY remains the focus of the currency markets. Over the last two weeks the flush out of positions in the currency pair and the Nikkei has been savage, causing investors to unwind other dollar longs against the euro, pound and Swiss franc. In contrast, the fundamentals supporting a stronger dollar this year remain intact.
(...) most of the forty clients we met this week in France, Sweden and Switzerland also still favour the dollar this year. Longs have clearly been strongly…