UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The latest strength does not change the bearish picture and there is a strong resistance at 1.3107. Support is at 1.2844 ahead of 1.2662.
USDJPY BULLISH There is a strong support at 93.57/11. While these hold, there is scope for resumption of strength. Resistance is at 96.71 ahead of 97.79.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.5321 ahead of 1.5424 - which should hold any upside. Support is at 1.5166 ahead of 1.5027."

UBS - "This year the dollar is leading the other major currencies. But on a broad trade-weighted basis, including emerging market and commodity currencies, the greenback remains close to its all-time lows.

Dollar bulls - looking for a multi-year greenback rally like those of 1978-1985 and 1995-2002 - are anticipating the Federal Reserve will start scaling back its quantitative easing this year. That appears the most likely trigger for a broader dollar recovery in 2013.

But for a big…

UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2305 ahead of 1.2398. Support is at 1.2167 ahead of 1.2120.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8445 - a closing break below this would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 0.8615 ahead of 0.8684.
EURJPY NEUTRAL Near-term support is at 121.15, a break below would expose 118.73. Resistance is at 126.04 ahead of 127.71."

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Focus is on the next major support at 1.2662, a break below this would be a bearish development in the long term. Resistance is at 1.2996 ahead of 1.3107.

AUDUSD NEUTRAL Only a closing break above strong resistance at 1.0414 would confirm the recent strength, opening 1.0458 and then 1.0599. Support is at 1.0300.

USDCAD BULLISH The latest strength reinforces the broader bullish theme. A break above 1.0296 would open 1.0366 and then 1.0477A. Support is at 1.0214…

UBS - "As the dust continues to settle from the Cyprus fallout, it cannot be denied that the way the country’s bailout was handled has simply reinforced the prejudices of many investors who have a structural bias against the euro. From muddled messages to the lack of coordination, clients looking from afar will ask: if such a small country can cause so much stress, then what will happen if a larger periphery country faced…

UBS - "This year we expect the euro to trade back to 1.20 against the dollar by year end as America's economy outperforms, the Federal Reserve starts scaling back its asset purchases in the second half of the year, foreign central bank and sovereign wealth fund managers desist from dollar diversification and America's shale energy boom cuts the US current account deficit.

But we had expected this year's range so far in the euro of 1.30-1.37 to remain intact into Q2'13.

(...) Italy's…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair posted a new low and is currently trading just above support at 1.2876. A break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2998 ahead of 1.3107.

USDJPY BULLISH The latest weakness is held by the main support at 93.11. While this holds on closing basis, there is scope for resumption of upside. Resistance is at 96.71.

GBPUSD BEARISH The recent recovery does not change the broader bearish picture. Important resistance is at 1.5199. Support is at…

UBS - "Sterling is likely to be the biggest mover in the week ahead. On Wednesday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes are released while, separately, the UK Budget may announce a review of the central bank's inflation target. We expect this will cause the pound to weaken.

(...) This week's key points are:



- dollar bulls should check the FOMC's new forecasts

- PMI data key for euro in the week ahead

- new BoJ leadership approved, still buy USDJPY…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. Focus is on the support at 1.2876, a break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3074 ahead of 1.3134.

USDJPY BULLISH There is scope for further strength in the near-term. A break above 96.71 would open 97.79 and then 99.875. Support is at 95.45 ahead of 94.48.

GBPUSD BEARISH Yesterday's sharp advance does not change the broader bearish picture. Important resistance is at 1.5199. Support is at 1.4912 ahead of…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Bearish trend conditions persist. Focus is on the support at 1.2876, a break below would expose 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3074 ahead of 1.3134.
EURGBP BULLISH The latest setback does not change the bullish picture as long as support at 0.8589 holds. Resistance is at 0.8831, a break above would open 0.9021.
EURJPY BULLISH Initial resistance is at 126.04, a break above would open strong area at 127.71-127.92. Support is at 122.39."

UBS - "USDCHF BULLISH As long as support at 0.9394 holds, watch for a closing cross higher in momentum tools to signal resumption of strength. Resistance is at 0.9552.
AUDUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0357 ahead of 1.0414. Support is at 1.0267 ahead of 1.0202.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support at 1.0186 holds, there is scope for a break above resistance at 1.0296, opening 1.0366. Near-term support is at 1.0235."

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.2955, a break below would expose 1.2876 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.3134.

USDJPY BULLISH The pair extends its strength posting new recovery highs. Resistance is at 97.79 ahead of 99.875. Support is at 95.89 ahead of 94.79.

GBPUSD BEARISH The pair extends weakness posting a new corrective low. Support is at 1.4687 ahead of 1.4347. Resistance is at 1.4993 ahead of…

UBS - "A second wave of USDJPY buying is due. Japanese real money is still waiting in the wings and the life insurance industry in particular still has yen to sell.

Lifers maintain FX hedges worth about US$340 bn but one-by-one the incentives to trim these are falling into place. Admittedly, hedging costs are still very low. But yield spreads are rising, lifer risk tolerance has improved, and the yen has embarked on what we believe is a long-term downtrend.

Scope: A return to…

UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:

- upcoming FOMC forecast round key for dollar strength

- ECB inaction to support euro on the crosses

- the new BoJ won't disppoint USDJPY bulls

- MPC waits for Budget BoE review, stay short Cable

- SNB to stay on hold in the week ahead, watch USDCHF

- Norges Bank also to remain unchanged next week

- Australian jobs, RBNZ meeting should temper AUDNZD rally"

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director &…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As long as resistance at 1.3162 holds, the pair remains vulnerable. Support is at 1.2965, a break below would pave the way for weakness to test 1.2877.

EURGBP BULLISH Yesterday's sharp advance confirmed the momentum crossing higher again. Focus on resistance at 0.8831 ahead of 0.8886. Support is at 0.8576.

EURJPY BULLISH With the MACD threatening to cross above its zero line, the risk is for resumption of bull trend. Resistance is at 127.71. Support is at…

UBS - "Traditionally, the dollar's moves against the euro and yen gain the most attention. But investors who share our view that the greenback will rally broadly this year should track the dollar's value against the Swiss franc.

(...) This year we expect the dollar to appreciate to 1.20 against the euro, 100 against the yen and 1.41 against the pound. The US economy is outperforming its peers.

(...) investors should keep a close eye on USDCHF as the currency market's true compass. As…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH As the pair closed below the support at 1.2997, this is a major bearish development, paving the way for weakness to 1.2877. Resistance is at 1.3080.

USDJPY BULLISH With trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, watch for a break above resistance at 94.77, opening 97.79. Support is at 92.92 ahead of 92.01.

GBPUSD BEARISH The pair extends weakness posting a new corrective low. Support is at 1.4949 ahead of 1.4687. Resistance is at 1.5110 should hold any…

UBS - "This year we have been bearish on the yen and the pound's near term outlook. Over a three month timeframe we have projected declines to 95 and 1.53 against the dollar respectively. Recent events have resulted in these short run forecasts being met and suggest that the longer term picture will remain challenging. As a result we downgrade our end 2013 forecasts for both currencies. We now expect USDJPY to trade at 100 by the end of the year, compared to 85 previously, and for GBPUSD to…

UBS - "EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2344 ahead of 1.2398. Support is at 1.2251 ahead of 1.2227.
EURGBP BULLISH Resistance is at 0.8696 ahead of 0.8831. Any downside should be limited, with support at 0.8576 ahead of 0.8535.
EURJPY NEUTRAL The immediate risk appears to be for extension of the consolidation phase. Resistance is at 124.28 ahead of 127.92. Support is at 120.36 ahead of 118.73."