UBS - "Currency markets face three key events for the rest of June. The Bank of Japan meets on June 11, under pressure to take further measures to reduce volatility in JGB and stock markets. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting on June 18-19. Last, on June 27-28 European Union leaders will discuss further steps on banking union, ahead of a critical finance ministers meeting on July 8-9. If the BoJ is able to stem the plunge in the Nikkei, then further speculation about…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 10:22am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 94.99 ahead of 93.57.
EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3112 ahead of 1.3052.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, a break above 1.5684 would open the way to test the main resistance at 1.5789.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 9:13am — No Comments
UBS - "Today the European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold their monthly policy meetings. Neither central bank is set to make any changes. But both may still consider further easing under a new governor from July in the BoE's case or if Eurozone sentiment worsens again over the summer in the ECB's case.
For now the euro remains sidelined, trading in a 1.28-1.32 range against the dollar. There are two factors currently supporting the single currency. First, Eurozone data has…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 6, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The pair is consolidating and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. The risk is for resumption of weakness, and resistance at 0.9843 should hold. Support is at 0.9591 ahead of 0.9528.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support holds on closing basis at 1.0266, the potential is for resumption of the bull trend. Resistance is at 1.0421 ahead of 1.0524.
EURCHF BULLISH There is a strong support at 1.2329. While this holds and as MACD is above its zero line, the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 5, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, UBS Economics forecasts stronger than expected US ISM and payrolls releases. That is set to make investors more fearful of carry trades being unwound. As a result the dollar is likely to continue rallying against emerging market and commodity currencies, rebound against the euro and pound, and should start to recover lost ground against the Swiss franc and yen. This week's key points for currencies are:
- firm US data to pressure risk trades, favour…Continue
UBS - "We remain cautious on the Australian dollar given the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates again from 2.75% this year. The central bank has an easing bias and domestic data remains mixed. As a result we expect the currency to trade at 0.95 against the US dollar over the next three months and 0.90 over the next twelve months. We also see the Australian dollar under-performing the New Zealand dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - faced with rising house…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 7:37am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The latest setback found support at 100.38. A move below which would extend the correction to 99.58. Resistance is at 102.59, a break above would open 103.74 ahead of 105.60.
GBPUSD BEARISH Initial support is at 1.5014, a break below this would extend weakness to test the critical 1.4832. Resistance is at 1.5174 ahead of 1.5240.
USDCHF BULLISH The recent weakness does not change the broader bullish picture and major support is at 0.9543. Resistance is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 27, 2013 at 8:30am — No Comments
UBS - "Despite the volatile moves suffered by financial markets particularly the Nikkei, we think the key trend in currency markets of a rising dollar remains intact.
(...) For now the focus of the currency markets will remain on Japan. Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda will speak on Sunday and again on Wednesday. In addition the central bank will meet investors also on Wednesday to discuss the Japanese bond and equity markets. If Kuroda and his officials succeed in lowering volatilty in…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2013 at 8:00am — No Comments
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 24, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.
EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.
The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 22, 2013 at 2:20pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.
AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 21, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 20, 2013 at 5:28pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.
EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 17, 2013 at 8:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.
AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.
EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.
EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 15, 2013 at 9:03am — No Comments
UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- several US data releases due but claims still key
- ECB to develop an exchange rate policy?
- G7 doesn't criticise Japan, USDJPY a buy on dips
- BoE Inflation Report key in the week ahead
- Swiss deflation, rising stocks to weaken franc
- buy DNTs as Norges Bank keeps krone rangebound
- expect more RBA easing now, stay bearish AUDNZD"
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.
GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 13, 2013 at 8:38am — No Comments
UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.
With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.
(...) The dollar has chalked up…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 10, 2013 at 7:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9437, a break above which would open 0.9499. Support is at 0.9364, a breach here would expose 0.9320.
AUDUSD BEARISH As bear trend persists, there is potential for a test of the major support area at 1.0115 and 1.0103. Resistance is at 1.0254.
USDCAD BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9987. A closing break below this would be further negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 0.9933. Resistance is at 1.0083 ahead of 1.0132."
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 8, 2013 at 9:08am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.
GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.
EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 7, 2013 at 7:30am — No Comments