UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the bear trend intact focus is on the key support at 1.2797. A break below this would suggest scope for further downside. Resistance is at 1.3078.
USDJPY BULLISH Our focus is on the key resistance at 103.74. Downside should be limited with support at 98.16.
GBPUSD BEARISH The pair closed below the key support at 1.5183. This was a strong bearish development, exposing 1.5009. Resistance is at 1.5279.
USDCHF BULLISH Any recovery should be limited with a…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 4, 2013 at 10:23am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, potential is for further downside. Immediate support is at 1.2985 ahead of 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3150.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair is trading just below the strong resistance at 99.94. A closing break above this would be positive, opening 103.74. Support is at 99.18 ahead of 96.82.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Weakness is held by the key support at 1.5183, which was tested on Friday. A closing break below this would a strong bearish…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 2, 2013 at 11:43am — No Comments
UBS - "Several of the world's major currencies are experiencing or are close to important turning points. The dollar is starting to trend higher following Chairman Bernanke's suggestion after the June Federal Open Market Committee meeting that the central bank may taper its asset purchases later this year. Similarly, the yen, despite volatility over the last few weeks, is set to trend lower following the Bank of Japan's decision on April 4 to double the monetary base. Our view that the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 1, 2013 at 2:50pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURCHF Bearish. Any upside should be limited with a strong resistance at 1.2384. Support is at 1.2278 ahead of 1.2196
EURGBP Neutral. The cross again bounced from the support at 0.8475. Resistance is at 0.8607 ahead of 0.8656. A closing break below 0.8475 would be negative opening 0.8398.
EURJPY Neutral. Resistance at 130.43 holds the upside move. A break above this would open 133.80. Support is at 124.72; a closing break below this would be negative.
EURUSD Bearish. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 28, 2013 at 9:05am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH Yesterday the pair closed below the strong support at 1.3034. The risk is for further downside with next support at 1.2797. Resistance is at 1.3151.
AUDUSD BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, we expect the resistance at 0.9407 to hold on closing basis. Support is at 0.9143. A closing break below this will trigger deeper sell-off.
USDCAD BULLISH As a reaction to a sharp advance the pair is consolidating. Support at 1.0396 should hold for now. Resistance…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 27, 2013 at 8:33am — No Comments
UBS - "Staying with USDCAD upside stance but exploit skew: We are selling a 25 Jul 13 expiry USD call / CAD put with a 1.0765 strike for 0.43% of face value, spot reference 1.0530. This will complement our existing long position in a same-date 1.0550 USD call / CAD put (position established 17 Apr 13 for 0.58 % of face) into a call spread. Last week Fed tapering expectations and softer Canadian data (CPI and retail sales) led to a sharp jump in USDCAD implied volatility and…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 25, 2013 at 11:37am — No Comments
UBS - "The bullish case for the dollar has been significantly boosted by Chairman Bernanke signaling the Federal Reserve is prepared to start slowing down its pace of asset purchases later this year and to freeze its balance sheet expansion altogether by the middle of next year. That is in line with our view that the Fed will be the first of the major central banks to exit unconventional monetary policy.
Unsurprisingly, higher yielding emerging market and commodity currencies have…
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH The pair posted a new high and is approaching the resistance at 1.3520 ahead of 1.3711. Support is at 1.3319.
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid-May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists any downside will be limited with a strong support at 1.5468. Broader focus is on the strong resistance at 1.5789; a closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 19, 2013 at 7:28am — No Comments
UBS - "Any post-FOMC pullback in USDCAD towards strong technical support at 1.0120 should offer dip-buying opportunities for those looking to exploit upside potential into the Bank of Canada's July 17 meeting."
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The recent sell-off has put our focus on the momentum tools to cross lower to indicate resumption of downside. Support is at 0.9416 ahead of 0.9326. Resistance is at 0.9666.
USDCAD BEARISH Our focus is on the key support at 1.0120 ahead of 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0226.
EURCHF BEARISH The sharp sell-off is held by the support at 1.2267. A closing break would trigger deeper sell-off to1.2196. Upside should be limited with strong resistance at 1.2386.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 8:20am — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the MACD above its zero line, the potential is for further upside. Resistance is at 1.3390 ahead of 1.3520. Support is at 1.3266
USDJPY BEARISH The weakness since mid–May is approaching the significant support at 93.57. A closing break below this would be further negative opening 90.43. Resistance is at 96.10.
GBPUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5789. A closing break above this would be further positive opening 1.5879. Support is at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 17, 2013 at 11:05am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY remains the focus of the currency markets. Over the last two weeks the flush out of positions in the currency pair and the Nikkei has been savage, causing investors to unwind other dollar longs against the euro, pound and Swiss franc. In contrast, the fundamentals supporting a stronger dollar this year remain intact.
(...) most of the forty clients we met this week in France, Sweden and Switzerland also still favour the dollar this year. Longs have clearly been strongly…
UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The recent sharp sell-off tested support at 1.0169, a closing break below this would be negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 1.0120 and then 1.0027. Resistance is at 1.0224.
EURCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.2419 ahead of 1.2460. Support is at 1.2354, a break below would open 1.2267.
EURGBP NEUTRAL The latest weakness is approaching support at 0.8475, a break below this would open 0.8421 and then 0.8398. Resistance is at 0.8527 ahead of 0.8607.
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 11, 2013 at 2:32pm — No Comments
UBS - "Currency markets face three key events for the rest of June. The Bank of Japan meets on June 11, under pressure to take further measures to reduce volatility in JGB and stock markets. The Federal Open Market Committee holds its next meeting on June 18-19. Last, on June 27-28 European Union leaders will discuss further steps on banking union, ahead of a critical finance ministers meeting on July 8-9. If the BoJ is able to stem the plunge in the Nikkei, then further speculation about…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 10:22am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Upside will be viewed as corrective and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 99.36 ahead of 100.40. Support is at 94.99 ahead of 93.57.
EURUSD BULLISH There is a strong resistance at 1.3342. A closing break above which would be positive over the longer term, opening 1.3520. Support is at 1.3112 ahead of 1.3052.
GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions persist, a break above 1.5684 would open the way to test the main resistance at 1.5789.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 9:13am — No Comments
UBS - "Today the European Central Bank and the Bank of England hold their monthly policy meetings. Neither central bank is set to make any changes. But both may still consider further easing under a new governor from July in the BoE's case or if Eurozone sentiment worsens again over the summer in the ECB's case.
For now the euro remains sidelined, trading in a 1.28-1.32 range against the dollar. There are two factors currently supporting the single currency. First, Eurozone data has…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 6, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
UBS - "AUDUSD BEARISH The pair is consolidating and unwinding the overextended downside conditions. The risk is for resumption of weakness, and resistance at 0.9843 should hold. Support is at 0.9591 ahead of 0.9528.
USDCAD BULLISH As long as support holds on closing basis at 1.0266, the potential is for resumption of the bull trend. Resistance is at 1.0421 ahead of 1.0524.
EURCHF BULLISH There is a strong support at 1.2329. While this holds and as MACD is above its zero line, the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 5, 2013 at 8:42am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BEARISH Any upside will be limited in time and extent, as the broader focus is for a break below support at 97.31, extending weakness to 95.79. Resistance is at 100.73 and 101.31.
EURUSD NEUTRAL The latest strength suggests there is potential for extension to test the resistance at 1.3194 and then 1.3243. Support is at 1.2934 ahead of 1.2797.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The recent advance found resistance at 1.5378. A closing break above which would be positive, signalling scope for…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 4, 2013 at 8:51am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, UBS Economics forecasts stronger than expected US ISM and payrolls releases. That is set to make investors more fearful of carry trades being unwound. As a result the dollar is likely to continue rallying against emerging market and commodity currencies, rebound against the euro and pound, and should start to recover lost ground against the Swiss franc and yen. This week's key points for currencies are:
- firm US data to pressure risk trades, favour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 1, 2013 at 7:35pm — No Comments
UBS - "We remain cautious on the Australian dollar given the risk the Reserve Bank of Australia will cut interest rates again from 2.75% this year. The central bank has an easing bias and domestic data remains mixed. As a result we expect the currency to trade at 0.95 against the US dollar over the next three months and 0.90 over the next twelve months. We also see the Australian dollar under-performing the New Zealand dollar as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand - faced with rising house…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 30, 2013 at 7:37am — No Comments