All Blog Posts Tagged 'UBS' (299)

UBS - FX Comment:Trade surpluses keeping euro elevated for now

"In the week ahead January's trade and current account data will be released. The strength of the Eurozone's external balances has helped push the euro up to two year highs of 1.39 against the dollar. With the Eurozone only experiencing a modest recovery this year of around 1% of GDP growth, the single currency area's large trade balances are likely to persist in the near term as import demand remains constrained. That will keep the onus on the Federal Reserve to keep tapering for the dollar…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 5:35pm — No Comments

UBS - FX Comment:FOMC forecasts key in the week ahead

"We forecast the dollar to strengthen to 1.25 against the euro by the end of 2014 as the Federal Reserve progressively slows down and ends its third round of quantitative easing. The Federal Open Market Committee meeting in the week ahead will prove another modest step in this direction for the greenback - even if sustained dollar strength against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc is still likely to only occur when the Fed is getting closer towards the end of its asset purchases in the…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 5:31pm — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser: Technical FX-Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH

With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test the

critical resistance at 1.4052. Any setbacks in the interim will be corrective

and limited to support at 1.3834 and then 1.3780.

USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest decline was staged from the important resistance at 103.65.

Support is at 101.20 ahead of 100.76. Near-term resistance is at 102.18.

GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:46am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser: Corporate Flows More Influential

"Conviction Levels Still Subdued

Neither weekend developments in Ukraine nor China’s decision to widen the intraday trading band for USDCNY have been enough to inject much fresh volatility into FX markets. Last week, a rate hike by the RBNZ – the first by any G10 central bank since 2010 – also met with an uninspiring market reaction, and NZD atm implied vols remain stuck close to 9m lows. Clearly investor conviction levels remain subdued, and that provides an opportunity for underlying…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 7:41am — No Comments

UBS-The week ahead in FX: G10 and EM

" G10

EUR: February CPI (Mar 17, 10:00GMT)

February's final CPI reading is due and expected to remain steady at

0.80% (y/y), remaining well below ECB target. Any further fall would

add to worries that the ECB would need to step up to avoid the

possibility of deflation, especially in light of Draghi's recent comments.

AUD: RBA Minutes (Mar 18, 00:30GMT)

The RBA's March minutes are unlikely to add much new –…

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Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 6:47am — No Comments

UBS: FX Morning Adviser-Technicals on majors

"EURUSD BULLISH

Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at

1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would

extend the strength to 1.4052.

USDJPY NEUTRAL

The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above

this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48

ahead of 101.20.

GBPUSD BULLISH The recent setback doesn’t change…

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Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 6:56am — No Comments

UBS - FX & Equity Flows - Minors Attract Inflows

"Minors Attract Inflows

Gareth Berry



Flows: Reaching for yield



We were net buyers of AUD and NZD last week - the former due to a sudden improvement in domestic economic data, the latter on the likelihood of an imminent RBNZ rate hike. Buying pressure was also seen in sterling and the Nordics, while the Swiss franc suffered the worst of the outflows. In the EM space, the Singapore dollar came under the strongest selling pressure,…

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Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 10:00am — No Comments

UBS:FX Morning Adviser What’s Propping Up AUD?

"Inflows trickling back into AUD

Japanese investors are making a tentative return to Australian bonds markets. That’s the clear message from portfolio flow data released last week, which includes activity up to end-January. That’s quite a reversal of sentiment given Japanese investors spent most of the past 18 months as net AUD sellers. It seems FX valuations have now fallen back to somewhat attractive levels again – low enough to pique investor interest once more. These inflows have…

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Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:15am — No Comments

UBS:FX Morning Adviser-FX Technicals-Majors

EURUSD BULLISH

Any setbacks will be viewed as corrective and limited, with supports at 1.3812 and 1.3708. Resistance is at 1.3915, a break above this would extend the strength to 1.4052.

USDJPY NEUTRAL

The important resistance at 103.65 was tested on Friday and a close above this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.48 ahead of 101.20.

GBPUSD BULLISH

As bullish conditions persist, there’s…

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Added by Daologic on March 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser-Technical outlook on Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH

Thursday’s sharp advance reinforces the bullish trend as it closed above 1.3827. There’s scope for more upside to break above 1.3893 and then open the way to resistance at 1.4052. Support is at 1.3708.

USDJPY NEUTRAL

The pair advanced on Thursday to bring our focus on the resistance at 103.65. A close above this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.12 ahead of 101.20.

GBPUSD…

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Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 8:17am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser-FX Technical-Majors

EURUSD BULLISH

There’s scope for extension of the corrective phase in the near-term, with

supports at 1.3692 and then 1.3610. Strong trendline resistance intersects

today at 1.3827.

USDJPY BEARISH

While resistance holds at 102.83, there’s scope for resumption of

weakness as the trending indicators are bearish. Support is at 101.20

ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH

As bullish conditions persist, there’s…

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Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 8:04am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser-Majors Technical Outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH The important trendline resistance at 1.3830 held well last Friday to prompt a setback. Only a close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.

USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.

GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions…

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Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:54am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser Commodity FX Exposed

"Growth pricing more important than risk appetite

European stock markets had a difficult trading session on Monday, but risk aversion did not appear to be widespread. Commodity bloc currencies all ended the session on a high note, and barring wider geopolitical stress, we suspect value hunters will make their presence felt. Nonetheless, like our EM Strategy's view on EMFX, we would advise against addition to positioning on valuations alone – growth has to deliver.…

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Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments

UBS - FX & Equity Flows - Safety Demand Unclear

"EURUSD: Strong buying week from asset managers (4-month high) and

clear ‘CPI impact’ seen. Corporate and hedge fund buying also seen.

 USDJPY, EURJPY: Net selling driven by asset managers in both

USDJPY and EURJPY though volumes comparatively soft.

 USDCHF: Strong volume surge, led by aggressive selling by asset

manager and corporate names. Private client net flow…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments

UBS:FX Morning Adviser: Majors Technical Outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH The important resistance at 1.3831 held well. A close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.

USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.

GBPUSD BULLISH Having unwounded the overextended upside conditions, the pair is…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 9:42am — No Comments

UBS:The Week Ahead in FX Central Banks Seen on Hold

"EUR: Final PMI (Mar 3/5, 08:55 GMT)

The final February PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to remain unchanged from the flash estimates for both the manufacturing and services sectors.

AUD: RBA Decision/Stevens Testimony (Mar 4/6)

The RBA is likely to hold rates (as Stevens testifies to the HoR), but key is their reaction to capex intentions which imply a cliff – especially given their recent move to a 'neutral' bias indicating likely…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:41am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: FX technical Outlook-Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish conditions in place, there’s scope for a test of critical resistance at 1.3834. A break above which would open 1.3893. Support is at 1.3660 ahead of 1.3590.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH Having unwounded the overextended upside conditions, the pair is regaining strength. There’s potential for more upside to 1.6878. A break…

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Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 9:03am — No Comments

UBS - Morning Adviser - AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced

"AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced

Gareth Berry



Confirmation arrived overnight that Australian miners expect to cut back their investment spending sharply during the next financial year (July 1 2014 - Jun 30 2015).

A decline had been expected but not on such a scale. The raw estimates - which admittedly are only informed guesses - anticipate a 25.2% y/y decline in mining investment. Looking at the track record of these guesses and adjusting accordingly softens the blow…

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Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 8:55am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: FX Technical outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish conditions in place, there’s scope for a test of critical resistance at 1.3839. A break above which would open 1.3893. Support is at 1.3660 ahead of 1.3590.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH The pair has been correcting and the next major support lies at 1.6605. While this holds, there’s scope for resumption of bullish trend.…

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Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser: AUD More Downside Ahead

"Too soon to rebuild AUD longs

Japanese investors have systematically run down their exposure to Australian bonds over the past two years. These outflows have finally cooled, but have yet to reverse decisively. Figure 1 for example shows that Japan’s Toushin (mutual fund) industry has steadily whittled down its AUD longs. Exposure stood at just 12.4% of total currency holdings at end-Jan and now seems to be stabilising, but well below the 22.2% high. Figure 2 shows portfolio flows by…

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Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 9:13am — No Comments

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