All Blog Posts Tagged 'UBS' (290)

UBS FX Morning Adviser-Technical outlook on Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH

Thursday’s sharp advance reinforces the bullish trend as it closed above 1.3827. There’s scope for more upside to break above 1.3893 and then open the way to resistance at 1.4052. Support is at 1.3708.

USDJPY NEUTRAL

The pair advanced on Thursday to bring our focus on the resistance at 103.65. A close above this will be positive, opening the way to 105.44. Support is at 102.12 ahead of 101.20.

GBPUSD…

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Added by Daologic on March 7, 2014 at 8:17am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser-FX Technical-Majors

EURUSD BULLISH

There’s scope for extension of the corrective phase in the near-term, with

supports at 1.3692 and then 1.3610. Strong trendline resistance intersects

today at 1.3827.

USDJPY BEARISH

While resistance holds at 102.83, there’s scope for resumption of

weakness as the trending indicators are bearish. Support is at 101.20

ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH

As bullish conditions persist, there’s…

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Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 8:04am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser-Majors Technical Outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH The important trendline resistance at 1.3830 held well last Friday to prompt a setback. Only a close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.

USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.

GBPUSD BULLISH As bullish conditions…

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Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:54am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser Commodity FX Exposed

"Growth pricing more important than risk appetite

European stock markets had a difficult trading session on Monday, but risk aversion did not appear to be widespread. Commodity bloc currencies all ended the session on a high note, and barring wider geopolitical stress, we suspect value hunters will make their presence felt. Nonetheless, like our EM Strategy's view on EMFX, we would advise against addition to positioning on valuations alone – growth has to deliver.…

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Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments

UBS - FX & Equity Flows - Safety Demand Unclear

"EURUSD: Strong buying week from asset managers (4-month high) and

clear ‘CPI impact’ seen. Corporate and hedge fund buying also seen.

 USDJPY, EURJPY: Net selling driven by asset managers in both

USDJPY and EURJPY though volumes comparatively soft.

 USDCHF: Strong volume surge, led by aggressive selling by asset

manager and corporate names. Private client net flow…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 1:30pm — No Comments

UBS:FX Morning Adviser: Majors Technical Outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH The important resistance at 1.3831 held well. A close above this level would be positive, opening 1.3893. Support is at 1.3694 ahead of 1.3643.

USDJPY BEARISH The latest weakness suggests there’s scope for further extension of the decline to break below support at 100.76 and then onto test the critical 99.97. Resistance is at 102.83.

GBPUSD BULLISH Having unwounded the overextended upside conditions, the pair is…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 9:42am — No Comments

UBS:The Week Ahead in FX Central Banks Seen on Hold

"EUR: Final PMI (Mar 3/5, 08:55 GMT)

The final February PMIs for Eurozone and Germany are expected to remain unchanged from the flash estimates for both the manufacturing and services sectors.

AUD: RBA Decision/Stevens Testimony (Mar 4/6)

The RBA is likely to hold rates (as Stevens testifies to the HoR), but key is their reaction to capex intentions which imply a cliff – especially given their recent move to a 'neutral' bias indicating likely…

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Added by Daologic on March 3, 2014 at 6:41am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: FX technical Outlook-Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish conditions in place, there’s scope for a test of critical resistance at 1.3834. A break above which would open 1.3893. Support is at 1.3660 ahead of 1.3590.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH Having unwounded the overextended upside conditions, the pair is regaining strength. There’s potential for more upside to 1.6878. A break…

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Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 9:03am — No Comments

UBS - Morning Adviser - AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced

"AUD: Bearish Convictions Reinforced

Gareth Berry



Confirmation arrived overnight that Australian miners expect to cut back their investment spending sharply during the next financial year (July 1 2014 - Jun 30 2015).

A decline had been expected but not on such a scale. The raw estimates - which admittedly are only informed guesses - anticipate a 25.2% y/y decline in mining investment. Looking at the track record of these guesses and adjusting accordingly softens the blow…

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Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 8:55am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: FX Technical outlook

"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish conditions in place, there’s scope for a test of critical resistance at 1.3839. A break above which would open 1.3893. Support is at 1.3660 ahead of 1.3590.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH The pair has been correcting and the next major support lies at 1.6605. While this holds, there’s scope for resumption of bullish trend.…

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Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser: AUD More Downside Ahead

"Too soon to rebuild AUD longs

Japanese investors have systematically run down their exposure to Australian bonds over the past two years. These outflows have finally cooled, but have yet to reverse decisively. Figure 1 for example shows that Japan’s Toushin (mutual fund) industry has steadily whittled down its AUD longs. Exposure stood at just 12.4% of total currency holdings at end-Jan and now seems to be stabilising, but well below the 22.2% high. Figure 2 shows portfolio flows by…

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Added by Daologic on February 24, 2014 at 9:13am — No Comments

UBS FX Strategy-FX Technicals in Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH With bullish conditions in place, there’s more upside potential to test trendline resistance at 1.3840. A break above which would open the way to 1.3893. Support is at 1.3674 ahead of 1.3562.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10, a break above which would open 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH Any setback will be viewed as corrective and limited to support at 1.6605.

Resistance is at…

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Added by Daologic on February 21, 2014 at 8:36am — No Comments

RBS:FX Trading Strategy-Rapid deterioration in JPY fundamentals

"Viewpoint

The real yield spread suggests USD/JPY can trade to new long term cyclical highs. Rapid trade balance deterioration further undermines JPY. EM tensions have helped boost JPY, but in light of clear fundamental shifts against the JPY, we see significant upside potential.

Rapid deterioration in JPY fundamentals

We thought the market might be more unsettled by the weak Chinese flash PMI. However, after the initial reaction there was little follow through in Asia and EM…

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Added by Daologic on February 21, 2014 at 7:38am — 1 Comment

UBS FX Morning Adviser-FX Technicals-Majors

"EURUSD BULLISH The bullish development was a close above resistance at 1.3739. This suggests more upside in the near-term with next resistance at 1.3844 ahead of 1.3893. Support is at 1.3674 ahead of 1.3562.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10, a break above which would open 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH Any setback will be viewed as corrective and limited to support at 1.6605. Resistance is at…

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Added by Daologic on February 19, 2014 at 7:30am — No Comments

UBS Morning adviser-Technical Outlook-Majors

"EURUSD NEUTRAL The pair is approaching resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.38545 and then 1.3893. Support is at 1.3600 ahead of 1.3477.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 102.70, a break above which would open 103.65. Support is at 101.39 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH Any setback will be viewed as corrective and limited to support at 1.6605. Resistance is at 1.6878, a break above this would open 1.7043.

USDCHF NEUTRAL…

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Added by Daologic on February 18, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: AUD's China Impulse Minimal

"TSF figures losing relevance for Australia

The RBA minutes overnight affirmed the effects of expansionary policy but warned the economy was below-trend. Yet, optimism is tempting: Australia's data surprises have generally been on a six-month uptrend, and expectations may run high for a further export boost in the wake of China's record total social financing numbers (TSF). While this position has merits, we expect TSF numbers' impact on AUD to be marginal at best: the burden of price…

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Added by Daologic on February 18, 2014 at 8:44am — No Comments

UBS Morning Adviser: FX Technicals-Majors

"EURUSD NEUTRAL Any further recovery will find resistance at 1.3739. A close above this would be a bullish development opening the way to 1.3893. Support is at

1.3562 ahead of 1.3477.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Support is at 100.76 ahead of 99.97. Resistance is at 102.70 ahead of 103.65.

GBPUSD BULLISH Further support developed as the pair advanced sharply and is trading within striking distance of resistance at 1.6878. A break above which would open critical 1.7043. Support is at…

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Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:38am — No Comments

UBS Morning adviser: Yen Getting Interesting Again

"Case Builds For Further BoJ Easing

Suddenly it all seems to be going wrong for USDJPY. An interview with GPIF President Mitani in the weekend press suggests that any diversification of the pension fund’s portfolio away from JGBs is likely to proceed very gradually. Elsewhere, media reports claim new language could be inserted into the upcoming G20 communique, to discourage the practice of conducting monetary policy with the intention of affecting

exchange rates. Then finally, adding…

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Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

UBS: The Week Ahead in FX

"G10:

JPY: Q4 GDP/BoJ Meeting (Feb 16/18)

The first estimate of Japanese Q4 GDP is likely to show growth rising to +0.80%

from +0.30%. As for policy we do not expect any major adjustment by the BoJ.

AUD: RBA Minutes (Feb 18, 00:30 GMT)

The RBA's February meeting minutes will have less 'new' information than usual,

given the SOMP has detailed their now 'neutral' bias.

SEK: January…

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Added by Daologic on February 16, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

UBS FX Morning Adviser-FX Technicals Majors

"EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3556, a break below which would extend the weakness to 1.3477. Resistance is at 1.3685 ahead of 1.3739.

USDJPY NEUTRAL Resistance is at 103.10 ahead of 103.65. Support is at 101.47 ahead of 100.76.

GBPUSD BULLISH The pair resumed its broader bullish trend and resistance focus is at 1.6668. A break above which would open the way to 1.6747. Support is at 1.6426.

USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.8903. A break through this level…

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Added by Daologic on February 13, 2014 at 10:45am — No Comments

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