All Blog Posts Tagged 'UBS' (250)

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB to cut deposit rate below zero in the week ahead

UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: US core PCE inflation will become increasingly important

UBS - "In the week ahead, US April core PCE inflation will show whether the Federal Reserve needs to consider earlier tightening. In contrast, Japan's national CPI release will test the Bank of Japan's resolve to keep its current pace of quantitative easing unchanged and Eurozone M3 money supply is likely to show credit growth remaining too subdued to revive inflation quickly in the Eurozone. The dollar is set to keep gaining as the Federal Reserve tapers its balance sheet expansion while…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 26, 2014 at 9:17am — 1 Comment

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB speakers to keep euro a sell on rallies

UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: A Key Week For The Dollar

UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Dollar oversold on FOMC minutes

UBS - "In the week ahead, Fed Chair Yellen makes two public appearances while US retail sales, CPI inflation, industrial production and the New York and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing surveys are released. The greenback has been held back in Q1'14 by weather-affected data. But the US economy is likely to record stronger prints in Q2'14 as the latest weekly jobless claims numbers show. That will increase the risk of the dollar recovering from its current weak levels. This week's key points…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 14, 2014 at 10:58am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: FOMC minutes due in the week ahead

UBS - "The foreign exchange markets reacted to America's March employment report by favouring higher-yielding emerging markets and commodity currencies. But US data is unlikely to remain 'not too hot' to spur fears of Federal Reserve tightening and 'not too cold' to raise concerns about the recovery. Instead Friday's payrolls report clearly showed America's economy emerging from the winter slowdown. The Fed is thus on track to finish tapering its bond purchases by the autumn, raising the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 8, 2014 at 10:37am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Strong payrolls would spark sharp dollar rally

UBS - "The dollar has reached a major turning point against the euro. For the first time in eighteen months, relative central bank balance sheet growth is favouring the greenback as the Federal Reserve tapers its asset purchases. At the same time the European Central Bank's balance sheet contraction is also slowing as commercial banks cut their repayments of Longer-Term Refinancing Operation loans. Since the 2008 financial crisis such shifts have led to major turning points in the currency…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 31, 2014 at 8:49am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

UBS - "The Federal Reserve is only likely to start raising interest rates next year. But this month's Open Market Committee meeting has primed the dollar for a major rally over the next few months. Policymakers agreed to taper monthly bond purchases by another $10bn. In addition, the Fed's forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to a 6.5% unemployment rate was dropped. But the FOMC also surprised by retaining its bullish economic forecasts despite the winter slowdown in America,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 24, 2014 at 2:42pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Yellen unlikely to row back from Fed tapering

UBS - "In the week ahead Federal Reserve Chairwoman Yellen appears before Congress and Bank of England Governor Carney will present the February Inflation Report. (...) policymakers in both the US and UK are likely to signal interest rate increases will still only start from next year.

That will temper rallies in the dollar and pound. But we expect the greenback still to outperform this year as the Fed steadily cuts its pace of quantitative easing. The Fed's slowing balance sheet…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on February 10, 2014 at 9:33am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: Stronger data challenging Fed's forecasts

UBS - "In the next three months the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank and the Banks of Japan and England will all publish new economic projections. The upcoming forecast rounds will be important for currencies as they have the potential to shift the course of monetary policy across the major economies.

(...) This week's key points for currencies are:

- stronger data challenging Fed's forecasts

- ECB to keep explicit easing bias in the week ahead

- Japanese CPI…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on February 3, 2014 at 11:46am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Fed tapering in the week ahead will push dollar higher

UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are

- Fed tapering in the week ahead will push dollar higher

- Eurozone PMI keeping euro supported for now

- CPI inflation key in the week ahead for yen

- BoE to keep stressing no imminent need to hike rates

- EURCHF bulls should ignore bank capital buffer increase

- RBA comments keeping Australian dollar sell on rallies

- NZ dollar to rise into RBNZ meeting in the week ahead

- BoC concern on low inflation…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on January 27, 2014 at 7:40pm — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: Fed officials look through December's payrolls

UBS - "The search for inflation is becoming central to currency markets (...) In the week ahead, Canada, Australia and New Zealand all release their latest consumer price indices. The Bank of Canada also meets. We expect no change in policy but a weaker than consensus inflation print will increase expectations the BoC may cut its overnight rate from 1.00% later in the year. Australia's CPI release will also be closely followed after December's weaker than anticipated payrolls report. In…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on January 20, 2014 at 10:31am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: FOMC meeting presents several risks to the dollar

UBS - "The Federal Reserve meets in the week ahead. The FOMC could surprise by agreeing to taper asset purchases, by revising its forecasts higher as America's fiscal outlook improves, by lengthening its forward guidance to signal interest rates will remain on hold for longer or by cutting the interest the Fed pays on excess reserves held at the central bank. The range of possible outcomes presents upside and downside risks to the dollar in the near term. In the longer-term the strengthening…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on December 16, 2013 at 2:43pm — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: Fed Increasingly Close to Tapering, Don't Sell Dollars

UBS - "Financial markets expect the Federal Reserve will continue purchasing $85bn a month of assets until its March 18-19 Open Market Committee meeting. Friday's employment report showed November payrolls growth again exceeded 200k. But the dollar lost ground against the euro, pound, Swiss franc and commodity currencies while the S&P rose 1.1% to 1805. Stronger growth prospects supported the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Expectations the Fed will still delay tapering pushed the…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on December 10, 2013 at 12:26pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: US payrolls key in the week ahead for dollar

UBS - "This week we visited clients in the Middle East. Dollar diversification from the region continues to be limited in the wake of the Eurozone crisis and the Arab Spring. Investors tend to share our longer term bullish view on the greenback - so they are only likely to sell dollars more aggressively if the euro falls back towards 1.20-1.25 against the greenback.

Clients were also focused on Iran's interim agreement to curb nuclear activities in exchange for limited sanctions…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on December 2, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Fed more open to tapering than consensus expects

UBS - "The November payrolls report due on December 6 is the key US release before the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on December 17-18. But in the week ahead the Eurozone's flash CPI estimate for November, Japan's monthly inflation data for October and Australia's quarterly capex report may also be pivotal releases. Both the yen and the Australian dollar are falling into year end. Expectations are rising that the Bank of Japan will undertake more easing in the next…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 10:31am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: When Doves Cry

UBS - "In the week ahead, most of the Fed's doves including Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Dudley, current FOMC voting members Evans, Rosengren and Bullard, and non-voting FOMC member Kocherlakota - are scheduled to speak. In addition, the October 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Together, the upcoming communications will provide more insight into whether policymakers are willing to consider tapering as early as the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.

UBS Economics…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on November 18, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Fed tapering still likely earlier than dollar bears expect

UBS - "Our longer-term bullish dollar view has started to regain traction. October's payrolls report showed an increase of 204k payrolls. The European Central Bank cut interest rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia warned again its currency was too high. That made the euro end the week below 1.34 against the greenback and the Australian dollar below 0.94. Asian investors, however, expect the Federal Reserve will be slow to start tapering its asset purchases, making clients reluctant to put…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on November 10, 2013 at 3:24pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points for Currencies: Dollar Bears Beware, Earlier Fed Tapering Likely

UBS - "The euro has peaked at 1.38 against the dollar for the year. First, October's very weak Eurozone inflation data has strongly increased the risk of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates. Second, the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting did not rule out the Fed tapering asset purchases even as early as this year.

America's economy will need to bounce back from last month's government shutdown for the Fed to start lowering its pace of quantitative easing. That…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on November 3, 2013 at 8:46pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Fed delay will keep dollar weak for now

UBS - "The Federal Reserve's decision to delay tapering its asset purchases is set to keep the dollar weak for the next three months. Once the central bank signals it will start cutting its bond purchases at the start of the new year, we expect the longer term uptrend for the greenback to resume. But for now we see position unwinding, uncertainty about the Fed's intentions and next month's US fiscal risks keeping the dollar at current levels close to its lows for the year against the euro,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on September 23, 2013 at 3:08pm — No Comments

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