UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, the next major resistance focus is at 105.60. Support is at 101.26.

EURUSD BEARISH Any upside will be limited as bearish conditions persist. Resistance is at 1.2967 and 1.3020. Support is at 1.2797, a break below would expose 1.2746 ahead of the critical 1.2662.

The pair sold off sharply to test support at 1.5128 yesterday.

GBPUSD BEARISH There is scope for more downside in the near-term. Next support is at 1.5034 ahead…

UBS - "USDCAD BULLISH Initial resistance is at 1.0296, a break above this would open 1.0342 and then 1.0447. Support is at 1.0199.

AUDUSD BEARISH Any upside will be correction, unwinding the overextended downside conditions. Resistance is at 0.9831 ahead of 0.9918. The broader focus is for a test of major support at 0.9582.

EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above which would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2436 ahead of…

UBS - "The dollar remains our favoured currency for 2013. The US economy is likely to expand more than its peers. The Federal Reserve is set to exit uncoventional monetary policy before other major central banks. Dollar diversification by central bank reserve managers and sovereign wealth funds is subdued, and America's shale energy revolution is cutting its current account deficit. Our bullish view on the greenback has become more consensus now. But if the dollar does embark on a multi-year…

UBS - "EURUSD BEARISH The pair is under pressure, trading close to Wednesday's low at 1.2843. A break below this would expose 1.2746 ahead of 1.2662. Resistance is at 1.2943 ahead of 1.3029.

EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2525, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2361.

EURGBP BEARISH With the MACD below its zero line, focus is on support at 0.8389. A break below this would expose the important 0.8587. There is an important…

UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.0217 ahead of 1.0294. Support is at 1.0082 ahead of 1.0014.

AUDUSD BEARISH Support is at 0.9821, a break below this would pave the way for further weakness to 0.9711. Resistance is at 1.0018.

EURCHF BULLISH With bullish trend in place, focus is on resistance at 1.2515, a break above this would open 1.2569. Support is at 1.2387.

EURGBP NEUTRAL There is an important resistance at 0.8546, a break above would open 0.8590. Support is at 0.8432…

UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:
- several US data releases due but claims still key
- ECB to develop an exchange rate policy?
- G7 doesn't criticise Japan, USDJPY a buy on dips
- BoE Inflation Report key in the week ahead
- Swiss deflation, rising stocks to weaken franc
- buy DNTs as Norges Bank keeps krone rangebound
- expect more RBA easing now, stay bearish AUDNZD"

UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH The pair extended its strength and is approaching first resistance at 103.07, a break above which would open the important 105.50. Support is at 100.54 ahead of 98.58.

GBPUSD BULLISH The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture. Support is at 1.5310 ahead of 1.5219. Resistance is at 1.5458 ahead of 1.5606.

EURUSD NEUTRAL Friday's sell-off stalled exactly at the strong support at 1.2936. A closing break below would be a bearish development,…

UBS - "The overnight break above the psychological 100 level is likely to pave the way for further upside too. The break was accompanied by broad-based dollar strength which chimes with our more general stronger dollar view for 2013.

With events unfolding in favour of further yen weakness, we take this opportunity to raise our 1m and 3m USDJPY forecasts to 102 and 105 respectively (previously both stood at 95.00). Our end-2013 forecast remains at 110.

(...) The dollar has chalked up…

UBS - "USDCHF NEUTRAL Resistance is at 0.9437, a break above which would open 0.9499. Support is at 0.9364, a breach here would expose 0.9320.
AUDUSD BEARISH As bear trend persists, there is potential for a test of the major support area at 1.0115 and 1.0103. Resistance is at 1.0254.
USDCAD BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9987. A closing break below this would be further negative, triggering a deeper sell-off to 0.9933. Resistance is at 1.0083 ahead of 1.0132."

UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the broader bull trend in place, any downside will be limited. Support is at 97.90 ahead of 97.01. Important resistance is at 99.95 ahead of 101.45.

GBPUSD BULLISH Critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would be positive opening the way to 1.5689 and 1.5789. Support is at 1.5481 ahead of 1.5402.

EURUSD NEUTRAL Initial support is at 1.3033, a break below this would expose 1.2995 and then 1.2936. Resistance is at 1.3159 ahead of…

UBS - " Foreign exchange markets have started May still largely rangebound. But the two major central bank meetings so far this month have begun to shift the balance of risks.

First, the European Central Bank's willingness to consider cutting interest rates below zero is set to act as a cap on the euro. Shorting the single currency has been difficult this year. But upside risks are likely to be limited now by ECB officials discussing negative interest rates whenever the euro rises. In…

UBS - "The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to keep the cash rate on hold at 3.0% at Tuesday morning's policy decision. That's the view of our Australia economics team, and about two thirds of economists surveyed by Bloomberg agree. The market has a more dovish disposition however, with about half a 25bp cut now priced in. In fact, having become mostly convinced that the RBA had reached the end of its easing cycle only a month ago, the market's 12m easing expectations increased sharply…

UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Initial resistance is at 98.20 ahead of the psychological 100.00.

GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and tested the critical resistance at 1.5606, a closing break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5468.

USDCHF BEARISH There is a critical support at 0.9207 ahead of 0.9150. Near-term resistance is at 0.9310 ahead of 0.9384.

EURUSD…

UBS - "USDCAD NEUTRAL The pair is held by the strong support area at 1.0084/71. A break here would be a bearish development. Resistance is at 1.0175 ahead of 1.0214.

EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside as bullish trend persists. Resistance is at 1.2312 ahead of 1.2349. Support is at 1.2240 and 1.2214.

EURGBP BEARISH The cross is testing important support at 0.8410. A closing break below would be a strong bearish development; triggering deeper sell-off to 0.8285.…

UBS - "This week the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank will hold their next policy meetings. The recent data flow has been weaker in both America and the Eurozone. But stock markets have remained resilient. The Federal Open Market Committee looks set to continue with its third round of quantitative easing. The ECB's Governing Council is also likely to cut its benchmark refinance rate by 25bps to 0.50% according to UBS Economics.

In short, financial markets are betting that…

UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The latest setback does not change the broader bullish picture as long as strong support at 95.80 holds. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00.

GBPUSD BULLISH The pair posts new recovery high and is approaching resistance at 1.5550. The next major resistance is at 1.5606, a break above this would open 1.5689. Support is at 1.5419 ahead of 1.5361.

USDCHF NEUTRAL Support is at 0.9387, a move below would expose 0.9319. Near-term resistance is at 0.9457 ahead of…

UBS - "EURUSD Resistance is at 1.3108, a break above this would open the more critical 1.3202 and then 1.3232. Support is at 1.2955 and 1.2920 – a breach here would be a bearish development.

USDJPY As long as support at 97.85 holds, there’s scope for extension of the broader bull trend. Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive, opening 101.45.

GBPUSD Having closed above 1.5424, the risk is for further upside in the near-term as the trending…

UBS - "EURCHF BULLISH There is scope for more upside and the next major resistance is at 1.2398. Support is at 1.2264.

EURGBP NEUTRAL Support is at 0.8497, a break below which would expose 0.8463 ahead of 0.8410. Resistance is at 0.8590 ahead of 0.8648.

EURJPY BULLISH As long as support at 127.82 holds, there is potential for the cross to extend its broader strength. Near-term resistance is at 130.70, a break above this would open 132.05.

EURUSD NEUTRAL Resistance is at 1.3108, a…

UBS - "EURUSD NEUTRAL Having tested support at 1.2974, there’s scope for a move to next support at 1.2920, a break below which would be a bearish development, triggering deeper sell-off to 1.2746. Resistance is at 1.3084 ahead of 1.3202.

USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at the psychological 100.00, a break above this would be positive opening 101.45. Support is at 98.49 ahead of 97.85.

GBPUSD NEUTRAL Support is at 1.5190, a breach of which would trigger deeper sell-off to 1.5122 and then…

UBS - "Germany's IFO data is also released this week. This is a survey that is likely to carry weight with policymakers. As Chart shows the data here has also begun to weaken. As a result the case for another ECB rate cut seems to be building. If the central bank does decide to ease in the next couple of months, it will likely cut its benchmark refinance lending rate from 0.75% to 0.50%. That would help push the euro down into a 1.28-1.30 range against the dollar. But for now we do not…