UBS - "This week we visited clients in the Middle East. Dollar diversification from the region continues to be limited in the wake of the Eurozone crisis and the Arab Spring. Investors tend to share our longer term bullish view on the greenback - so they are only likely to sell dollars more aggressively if the euro falls back towards 1.20-1.25 against the greenback.
Clients were also focused on Iran's interim agreement to curb nuclear activities in exchange for limited sanctions…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 2, 2013 at 11:28am — No Comments
UBS - "The November payrolls report due on December 6 is the key US release before the last Federal Open Market Committee meeting of the year on December 17-18. But in the week ahead the Eurozone's flash CPI estimate for November, Japan's monthly inflation data for October and Australia's quarterly capex report may also be pivotal releases. Both the yen and the Australian dollar are falling into year end. Expectations are rising that the Bank of Japan will undertake more easing in the next…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 25, 2013 at 10:31am — No Comments
UBS - "In the week ahead, most of the Fed's doves including Chairman Bernanke, New York Fed President Dudley, current FOMC voting members Evans, Rosengren and Bullard, and non-voting FOMC member Kocherlakota - are scheduled to speak. In addition, the October 29-30 FOMC meeting minutes will be released. Together, the upcoming communications will provide more insight into whether policymakers are willing to consider tapering as early as the December 17-18 FOMC meeting.
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 18, 2013 at 12:01pm — No Comments
UBS - "Our longer-term bullish dollar view has started to regain traction. October's payrolls report showed an increase of 204k payrolls. The European Central Bank cut interest rates and the Reserve Bank of Australia warned again its currency was too high. That made the euro end the week below 1.34 against the greenback and the Australian dollar below 0.94. Asian investors, however, expect the Federal Reserve will be slow to start tapering its asset purchases, making clients reluctant to put…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 10, 2013 at 3:24pm — No Comments
UBS - "The euro has peaked at 1.38 against the dollar for the year. First, October's very weak Eurozone inflation data has strongly increased the risk of the European Central Bank cutting interest rates. Second, the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting did not rule out the Fed tapering asset purchases even as early as this year.
America's economy will need to bounce back from last month's government shutdown for the Fed to start lowering its pace of quantitative easing. That…
Added by Francesc Riverola on November 3, 2013 at 8:46pm — No Comments
UBS - "The Federal Reserve's decision to delay tapering its asset purchases is set to keep the dollar weak for the next three months. Once the central bank signals it will start cutting its bond purchases at the start of the new year, we expect the longer term uptrend for the greenback to resume. But for now we see position unwinding, uncertainty about the Fed's intentions and next month's US fiscal risks keeping the dollar at current levels close to its lows for the year against the euro,…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 23, 2013 at 3:08pm — No Comments
UBS - "we expect last week's FOMC meeting will keep the dollar weak for one quarter before its longer-term uptrend can resume.
So we revised our short term forecasts across the board overnight. We raised our 1m and 3m EURUSD forecasts to 1.37 and 1.35 respectively (from 1.30 and 1.28 before). Our 1m and 3m GBPUSD forecasts rise to 1.63 and 1.61 respectively (from 1.55 and 1.52 previously). Similarly, we now project USDJPY to be at 101 in one month's time and 103 over the next three…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 23, 2013 at 10:55am — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH Resistance is at 100.61, a break above which would open 101.53 ahead of 103.74. Support is at 97.76 ahead of 96.82.
EURUSD BULLISH As a reaction to the sharp advance, there is scope for a short-term setback to unwind. Support is at 1.3501 ahead of 1.3392. Resistance is at 1.3569, a break above which would open the way to major resistance at 1.3711.
GBPUSD BULLISH Resistance is at 1.6179, a break above which would open the way to 1.6381. Any downside will be…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 20, 2013 at 7:00am — No Comments
UBS - "The new month starts with a high degree of event risk. The US may launch strikes against Syria as early as this weekend. In the week ahead, the European Central Bank, the Banks of Japan, England and Canada, the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Riksbank all hold policy meetings. The US August payrolls report is due at the end of the week, and emerging market currencies are likely to face further pressure if America's employment data suggest the Federal Reserve will agree this month to…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 9:59am — No Comments
UBS - "The dollar index DXY remains at the bottom of its 81-85 summer trading range. Ten year US Treasury yields have traded through 2.80% for the first time in two years as America's economy continues to recover. But stronger Eurozone and UK data at the same time is preventing the dollar benefiting from the dovish stance of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
Nevertheless, we think the Federal Reserve's policymaking remains the key driver of foreign exchange markets. With…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 20, 2013 at 11:25am — No Comments
UBS - "The summer weakness of the dollar has extended further this month. The greenback ended the week around 1.33, 96, 1.55 and 0.92 against the euro, yen, pound and Swiss franc respectively. America's currency has been undermined by stronger data in the Eurozone, UK and China. But its current soft patch also reflects investors reducing positions and seasonally lower volumes in the currency markets. That suggests dollar weakness has been exaggerated. The Treasury market is also signaling…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 12, 2013 at 11:53am — No Comments
UBS - "Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director Head, Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research:
- During the course of this year our bullish view on the dollar has become more consensus as the Federal Reserve appears likely to be the first of the major central banks to exit unconventional monetary policy.
- But not all investors are long the greenback. American fund managers - the largest holders of dollar- denominated capital in the world - continue to have historically high…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments
UBS - "USDJPY NEUTRAL The recent sell-off is approaching the critical support at 96.75.A closing break below this will trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 98.59 ahead of 99.95.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL Sharp advance was seen since Friday, is held by the critical resistance at 1.5394. A closing break above this would be positive. Support is at 1.5281 ahead of 1.5213.
USDCHF BEARISH The pair is approaching the first support at 0.9229. A move below this would trigger further sell-off…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 7, 2013 at 2:53pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH Yesterday’s sharp sell-off is viewed as a correction to unwind the overextended upside extremes. With the bull trend intact, potential is for the pair to move above 1.3302 to test the key resistance at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3120.
USDJPY NEUTRAL The pair advanced from the strong support at 96.75. This strength is approaching the resistance at 100.02. A closing break above this would trigger further upside.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL With the MACD threatening to cross…
Added by Francesc Riverola on August 2, 2013 at 3:00pm — No Comments
UBS - "Our bullish view on the dollar faces key tests in the week ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee meets. US GDP, ISM, payrolls and PCE inflation data are released. The European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee also meets.
In the run up to next week's events, the greenback has weakened. US data remains mixed while Wall Street Journalist Hilsenrath suggested the Fed may sharpen its forward guidance. In contrast, Eurozone PMI…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 2:36pm — No Comments
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH As the bull trend persists, indicated by the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3253 ahead of 1.3166
USDJPY NEUTRAL The sharp sell-off since Thursday faces a strong support at 96.75.A closing break below this would trigger further sell-off. Resistance is at 99.41 ahead of 100.87.
GBPUSD NEUTRAL The pair is testing the critical resistance at 1.5394, since Thursday. A closing…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 1:39pm — No Comments
(received 8h ago but could not publish it as I was sleeping :)
UBS - "EURUSD BULLISH With the trending and momentum indicators pointing higher, focus is on further upside. Key resistance is at 1.3417. Support is at 1.3134 ahead of 1.3052.
USDJPY BULLISH Any downside will be held by strong support at 98.57, which was held previously on a closing basis. Focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 24, 2013 at 1:43pm — No Comments
UBS - "We have been net sellers of Swiss francs for five weeks in a row now – a pattern we have not seen since shortly after the SNB installed the EURCHF floor. This is further evidence that an upside bias in EURCHF is starting to emerge. Despite the recent CHF selling, legacy long Swiss franc positions remain very substantial."
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 11:49pm — No Comments
UBS - "Following Chairman Bernanke's semi-annual Congressional testimony, investors are likely to look ahead to the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 30-31, manufacturing ISM data on August 1 and July's payrolls on August 2. In addition, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England will hold their next monthly meetings on August 1.
(...) Though financial markets interpreted Bernanke's testimony as dovish, the Fed remains on track to start tapering its asset…
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 22, 2013 at 2:42pm — No Comments
(this info was published 8h ago so please take this in count)
UBS - "USDJPY BULLISH With the bull trend intact, focus is on resumption of upside, with resistance at 101.53 ahead of the key resistance at 103.74. Support is at 98.27.
GBPUSD BEARISH There is a strong resistance at 1.5283; which should be held on a closing basis. Initial support is at 1.5018 ahead of 1.4814.
USDCHF NEUTRAL There is a strong support at 0.9367. A break below this would be negative. On the upside,…