The USD index is bouncing along the bottom of a long term downtrend and since disinflation has also been evident in the US, the soft tone of the currency no doubt has been quietly welcomed by the US authorities. A stronger USD, however, would provide strong relief for other central banks. Yesterday’s solid US retail sales data has helped support the greenback, but a whole round of better US data is likely…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 15, 2014 at 9:53am — No Comments
ECB President Draghi took clear aim at the EUR on Saturday by remarking that “a further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus”. The comments came following the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments
"The EUR remains reluctant to yield ground
The buoyancy of EUR/USD has been a theme that has wrong-footed many investors over the past two years. While we anticipated that USD weakness would allow EUR/USD to remain well supported in 2013, more recently we have been arguing that the improvement in US…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 12, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments
"SEK – another rate cut?
(...) In the weeks ahead, another rate cut from the…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments
"EUR – what crisis?
Looking ahead, we expect the EUR to retain its resilient tone, even though there is a risk that…Continue
Added by Daologic on April 10, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments
"EUR/USD – time to sell?
The combination of the March US payrolls release and the ECB policy meeting means the week ahead is potentially a potent one for EUR/USD. The currency pair has already spent the second half of…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 31, 2014 at 9:12am — No Comments
"AUD – flight of fancy?
AUD/USD is currently providing enough interesting signals to fascinate an army of technical analysts. Not only does the 0.9140 area mark the humble 200 day sma, but it also…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 25, 2014 at 11:47am — No Comments
"GBP – how strong is it really?
The Bank of England tends not to make a habit of talking about sterling. However, the minutes of the December MPC meeting contained the phrase that “any further…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 24, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments
"Which way for the JPY?
The Ichimoku clouds are providing some supportive evidence for the yen this morning. EUR/JPY has broken through the confluence of this year's bullish trendline and the top of the…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 21, 2014 at 11:09am — No Comments
"New dawn for the USD?
Fed Chair Yellen’s reference to a period of six months between the end of Fed tapering and the start of a rate hike certainly injected excitement into the markets. It is possible…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 20, 2014 at 10:22am — No Comments
"Seeking safe havens?
Last week Germany’s Chancellor Merkel warned that the EU could impose sanctions on Russia from as soon as today if President Putin did not back down from annexing Crimea. Last…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 17, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments
"NZD – up, up and away
By hiking interest rates by 25 bps to 2.75% the RBNZ marked itself out as the first developed world central bank to hike interest rates this cycle. The move was very well…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 13, 2014 at 11:04am — No Comments
"USD/JPY – struggling for strong direction
At the start of this year USD/JPY notched a multi-year high in the region of 105.44. Following a rally through the final two months of last year, the market…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 12:07pm — No Comments
"EUR/USD – new influences
Since the end of last year investors have had to contend with a whole host of extraordinary events. The Fed has started to taper its monthly asset purchases, emerging markets have…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"CAD – has it bottomed?
On the last day of January USD/CAD hit 1.1224. This was the highest level since 2009. Although there was another attempt at 1.12 last month, the USD/CAD spent most of February trading…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"AUD/NZD – contrasting fortunes
As expected, following its overnight policy meeting the RBA reiterated the message that it is on course for a period of steady rates. The outlook, however, was tainted by its…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"GBP – how much further?
Since Bank of England Governor Carney outlined the new forward guidance in the February Inflation Report, a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"AUD – plan B?
The end of Australia’s mining investment boom was greeted with a wide acceptance that the country would have to rebalance…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 11:00am — No Comments
"CAD – how vulnerable?
In just a few sessions last week the CAD managed to erase all of the gains it had managed against the USD…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments
"EUR/USD – how high?
EUR/USD is holding just above the EUR/USD1.3700 this morning, propelled by the soggy tone in the USD. The dollar…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments