"USD/JPY – struggling for strong direction
At the start of this year USD/JPY notched a multi-year high in the region of 105.44. Following a rally through the final two months of last year, the market…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 12, 2014 at 12:07pm — No Comments
"EUR/USD – new influences
Since the end of last year investors have had to contend with a whole host of extraordinary events. The Fed has started to taper its monthly asset purchases, emerging markets have…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 6, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"CAD – has it bottomed?
On the last day of January USD/CAD hit 1.1224. This was the highest level since 2009. Although there was another attempt at 1.12 last month, the USD/CAD spent most of February trading…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 5, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"AUD/NZD – contrasting fortunes
As expected, following its overnight policy meeting the RBA reiterated the message that it is on course for a period of steady rates. The outlook, however, was tainted by its…Continue
Added by Daologic on March 4, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"GBP – how much further?
Since Bank of England Governor Carney outlined the new forward guidance in the February Inflation Report, a…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 28, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
"AUD – plan B?
The end of Australia’s mining investment boom was greeted with a wide acceptance that the country would have to rebalance…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 27, 2014 at 11:00am — No Comments
"CAD – how vulnerable?
In just a few sessions last week the CAD managed to erase all of the gains it had managed against the USD…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 26, 2014 at 10:23am — No Comments
"EUR/USD – how high?
EUR/USD is holding just above the EUR/USD1.3700 this morning, propelled by the soggy tone in the USD. The dollar…Continue
Added by Daologic on February 17, 2014 at 10:30am — No Comments
Rabobank - "EUR/USD: A weaker euro would be supportive for growth in peripheral Europe.
However, not all currencies can be simultaneously weak and the EUR is losing the battle. Insofar as the market remains obsessed with the timing of Fed tapering, threats of further policy action from the ECB are proving to have limited power over the direction of EUR/USD. Not only that, but the strength of Germany’s external sector and current account remains a source of strength for the EUR. The…
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 4, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The US is heading for two fiscal policy deadlines that will lead to a two-stage game of chicken between Democrats and Republicans: the continuing resolution for the new fiscal year that starts on October 1 and the need to raise the debt ceiling by October 17. Failure to adopt a continuing resolution will lead to a government shutdown, while not raising the debt ceiling will lead to a government default.
(...) On balance, the market impact of a government shutdown is limited.…
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 26, 2013 at 4:11pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Since Friday’s US payrolls data failed to clarify the outlook for Fed tapering, it also failed to bring much fresh direction for EUR/USD. We remain of the view that the Fed will probably dip its toe in the tapering pond by announcing a USD10 bln reduction in the amount of its monthly asset purchases at the September 17-18 FOMC. We also maintain that as the US economy strengthens and the Fed gets its teeth into tapering that the USD will strengthen. That said, the lack of vigour…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 9, 2013 at 9:41am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Late August brought signs that the market was taking renewed interest in the USD. This was largely the result of a step-up in risk stemming from Syria which resulted in an increase in demand for a safe-haven. Over the coming months developments in the mid-East could continue to impact the direction of the USD. That said, the USD is also likely to be heavily influenced by economic developments and in particular the policy decisions taken by the FOMC. CFTC data suggest that…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 4, 2013 at 4:21pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "IMM Net Positioning as at 27 August 2013:
- EUR net longs continued to rise, edging up to a high since May 2011.
- Yet again USD longs fell slightly but they still remain in positive territory. We expect our structurally bullish USD view to be reflected by market positioning going forward.
- JPY shorts increased by more than the prior week’s reduction. USD/JPY continues to flirt with the 100 handle but has not stood north of there since late July.
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 2, 2013 at 11:00am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Between Fed Chairman Bernanke’s speech last week and his testimony this afternoon, there has been a big change in market positioning. Last week the USD was confidently expecting Bernanke to provide more detail about when the Fed would start to taper QE, instead the market received the message that policy would stay accommodative for some time. Now that USD positions have been shortened there is less potential upside in EUR/USD following Bernanke remarks this afternoon. We expect…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 17, 2013 at 2:22pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Even if UK fundamentals suggest that sterling should be offer some support at current levels another burst of broad-based USD strength would still leave cable vulnerable. Later this week Fed chairman Bernanke will be speaking. He may give the market more reason to be optimistic on the US economic recovery. If this is the case cable will clearly be vulnerable. However, there is also a strong risk that Bernanke may also push back against the view that the tapering of QE is almost…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 9, 2013 at 9:22am — No Comments
Rabobank - "Central bankers and US payrolls data appeared to leave the outlook for EUR/USD and GBP/USD cut and dried last week. Both the ECB and BoE were dovish while the better headline numbers within the US labour report has encouraged speculation of tapering of QE from the Fed as soon as September. Although there is little US data scheduled this week, investors will have the benefit of the minutes of the June FOMC meeting in addition to a speech from Fed President Bernanke later in the…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 8, 2013 at 11:04am — No Comments
Rabobank - "The last few weeks have also seen the EUR push to better levels vs. the JPY. The gains, however have been moderate and EUR/JPY remains well below the levels achieved in May. We remain of the view that the yen can weaken over the medium term. The BoJ in April launched an extremely accommodative monetary policy and this should feed into a softer currency. However, the recent pullback in risk appetite is not conducive to significant yen slippage given the currency’s safe haven…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on July 3, 2013 at 5:49pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Although we expect no policy action at this week’s meeting (June 18-19), the FOMC is scheduled to update its economic projections and Bernanke will hold a post-meeting press conference. The markets will follow the latter with even more interest than usual. While the Fed Chairman may attempt to give more clarity about tapering off QE3, it will be difficult to reduce market uncertainty because there does not seem to be a consensus in the FOMC on an explicit criterion for stopping…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 18, 2013 at 1:55pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "The USD has not performed well over the past month. In the G10 space only the AUD and the NZD have fared worse. We have linked the recent softness of the greenback to positioning and the fact that the market entered into Q2 structurally long. This left the USD vulnerable to disappointing US economic data and the recognition that the pace of the domestic expansion has slowed relative to Q1. As the market continues to adjust the level of its long positions, there is the possibility…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 16, 2013 at 5:59pm — No Comments
Rabobank - "Over the past month or so, markets have become engrossed in the effort of trying to forecast when the Federal Reserve will start to taper the amount of its monthly asset purchases and this has been reflected in the movements of the USD index. The first half of May started out well for the USD following the release of better than expected US non- farm payrolls data. More recently, weaker economic releases have led to the assumption that perhaps the market has got ahead of itself…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 10, 2013 at 7:25pm — No Comments