All Blog Posts Tagged 'Rabobank' (113)

Rabobank FX: USD bulls - a threat?

"While the US economy has little need for strong currency, it is still too early to consider the USD as being too strong.  But assuming the USD continues to appreciate against a broad basket of currencies, it may not be too long before corporate America starts to object.  The  USD index at 87.15 is not drastically below its average rate since the start of the century (88.83), while on several measures of purchasing power…


Added by Daologic on November 4, 2014 at 12:31pm — No Comments

Rabobank about first FOMC rate hike

"US personal income and spending in August were much better than a month earlier. In nominal terms, personal income grew by 0.3% and spending by 0.5%. In the same report, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation was published: the PCE deflator fell to 1.5% year-on-year, from 1.6%. The consensus expectation was 1.4%, so the slide in inflation was smaller than had been feared. The core PCE deflator remained unchanged at 1.5%. The fall in inflation has led to several Fed doves asking for…


Added by Daologic on September 30, 2014 at 8:21am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: JPY and risk appetite


We expect that the JPY is still on course for softening vs. the USD over the medium-term as the progression of Fed tapering highlights the extremely accommodative position of the BoJ.  However, near-term the readjustment in expectations regarding the outlook for the AUD, NZD and the EUR could be providing additional support for the yen.  Layered on top of the prevailing geopolitical risks and the adjustments…


Added by Daologic on July 21, 2014 at 11:13am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: central banks, centre stage- USDCAD


Towards the end of June the market started to rethink its bearish CAD view.  Canadian CPI inflation headed higher and this triggered a debate over whether the BoC will be forced to drop its dovish tone.   Countering this view, last week’s BoC’s Outlook Survey suggested the existence of downside risks on inflation.  Since this will likely be used by the BoC as reason to maintain the dovish outlook it this…


Added by Daologic on July 14, 2014 at 9:46am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD/JPY, how low can it go?


 Currently, USD/JPY is positioned at the top on the weekly cloud at 101.40.  A close below this level this week would also hint at further downside potential towards the 100.80 area initially. 

  While USD/JPY could…


Added by Daologic on July 1, 2014 at 9:04am — No Comments

Rabobank: More of the same

"Last night's FOMC meeting and accompanying press conference managed to address the old question, "What do you give the market who already has everything?": the answer appears to be "more of the same." In short, the Fed managed to navigate through what some had expected to be a potentially tricky announcement by providing further fuel for both equity and Treasury market bulls - quite an achievement given both are already at levels that leave skeptics perplexed; the S&P closed at a new…


Added by Daologic on June 19, 2014 at 7:31am — No Comments

Rabobank:We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion.


We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another USD10billion to USD35 billion. In the accompanying statement we expect substantial revisions of the economic projections of FOMC participants. While the Committee is likely to reduce its GDP forecast for 2014, the expected downward revision of unemployment and upward revision of inflation are likely to lead to a hawkish shift in policy rate projections. After all, if labor market slack has decreased faster…


Added by Daologic on June 18, 2014 at 7:21am — No Comments

Rabobank: 17-18 FOMC forecast

"The primary economic focus for the week will be the June 17-18 FOMC. This meeting will include an update of the economic projections and a press conference by Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday. We expect the Committee to taper its asset purchase program by another $10bn, evenly split between US treasuries and agency MBS. This would reduce the purchases of treasuries in July to $20bn (from$25bn) and the purchases of agency MBS to $15bn (from $20bn). This will bring the total monthly amount of…


Added by Daologic on June 16, 2014 at 8:30am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD - time to buy?

"We have argued for some time that the ECB remains in the shadow of the Fed.  Despite maintaining an extremely dovish position for a prolonged period EUR/USD has retained a firm position.  While the strong movement back into peripheral assets can be associated with EUR strength since the end of 2012, the persistent weak tone of the USD has kept EUR/USD…


Added by Daologic on June 11, 2014 at 9:27am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: AUD/NZD - changing times?

"Potentially more interesting are the cross rates.  Following last week’s ECB policy action, the AUD has reached its strongest level since last Nov vs. the EUR  and the CHF.  AUD/NZD is holding above the 200 days sma close to a 5 mth high.  The market has fully priced in a 25 bp rate hike from the RBNZ on June 11.  This would be the third hike of the cycle.  Crucial, however, will be the direction offer by the RBNZ in its…


Added by Daologic on June 10, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

Rabobank Global Daily 29/5 - Government bonds in focus

"The rally in Govvies was helped by comments from ECB officials as  Constancio voiced his “hope that investors are sufficiently hedged” this saw any remaining doubts evaporate as to whether or not the ECB will actually announce further easing measures on June 5th . Mersch noted that the ECB is comfortable using both conventional and unconventional policy measures and that it is ready to act next week. Mersch also noted that the interest rate corridor will be maintained which would mean that…


Added by Daologic on May 29, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: Sell EURGBP on rallies!

"The fact that sterling retains its place at the best performing developed world currency over the past 12 mths reflects the fact that there is a lot of good news priced-in.  Long positions and the tendency for the market to allow itself to be carried away suggest that the pound is likely to be subject to bouts of profit-taking in the months ahead.  That…


Added by Daologic on May 23, 2014 at 8:39am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: JPY - in favour?


In addition to BoJ decisions there are a couple of other factors which could prove to be crucial in determining the path of USD/JPY through the remainder of the year and beyond.  The first is geo-political risk.  There is currently a risk that investors are treating the crisis in Ukraine with too much complacency.  Further deteriorating in the region could lead to safe haven demand for the yen.  Also,…


Added by Daologic on May 19, 2014 at 10:43am — No Comments

Rabobank Fx: EURO

"The loose correlation between the better tone in peripheral assets and the EUR can be drawn as far back as late 2012.  This suggests that as investor’s faith in the coherence of EMU has strengthened, so too has the demand for peripheral assets and the EUR.  Since further easing from the ECB may encourage demand for some peripheral assets, there can be no guarantee than any policy action from the ECB will have a lasting…


Added by Daologic on May 16, 2014 at 9:13am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: EUR/USD - reversal or not?


Having had their fingers burnt at the start of the year, the USD bulls have been in retreat for the past few months as the reality of weak Q1 US growth and a still dovish Fed seeped through.   Ahead of Draghi’s press conference yesterday the dollar index yesterday touched its weakest level since 2012.  Although there is evidence to suggest that US growth in Q2 will significantly improve following the…


Added by Daologic on May 9, 2014 at 9:31am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: USD - unloved

"(...) We suspect that the reasons for the negative attitude towards the USD are twofold.  Firstly, the greenback is suffering a backlash from a wide scale re-assessment of the EUR.  Eurozone peripheral assets have been caught up in virtuous circle as structural improvements in the region and rising prices have encouraged renewed interest in the assets of countries such as Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain.…


Added by Daologic on May 6, 2014 at 10:05am — 3 Comments

Rabobank FX: Disinflation and the G10


The USD index is bouncing along the bottom of a long term downtrend and since disinflation has also been evident in the US, the soft tone of the currency no doubt has been quietly welcomed by the US authorities.  A stronger USD, however, would provide strong relief for other central banks.  Yesterday’s solid US retail sales data has helped support the greenback, but a whole round of better US data is likely…


Added by Daologic on April 15, 2014 at 9:53am — No Comments

Rabobank Global Daily 14/4 - ECB takes aim at the EUR

"Market comments

ECB President Draghi took clear aim at the EUR on Saturday by remarking that “a further strengthening of the exchange rate would require further stimulus”.  The comments came following the spring meetings of the IMF and World Bank.…


Added by Daologic on April 14, 2014 at 8:00am — No Comments

Rabobank FX Outlook 11/04 - EUR resilience again

"The EUR remains reluctant to yield ground

The buoyancy of EUR/USD has been a theme that has wrong-footed many investors over the past two years.  While we anticipated that USD weakness would allow EUR/USD to remain well supported in 2013, more recently we have been arguing that the improvement in US…


Added by Daologic on April 12, 2014 at 5:00am — No Comments

Rabobank FX: SEK - another rate cut?

"SEK – another rate cut?

(...)   In the weeks ahead, another rate cut from the…


Added by Daologic on April 11, 2014 at 9:00am — No Comments


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