Royal Bank of Scotland - "The April BoE decision saw GBP/USD trade higher. The official consensus was for no change but the unofficial consensus may have been skewed more towards action after the Chancellor amended the BoE's remit last month. A disappointingly weak US non farm payrolls print also helped to push GBP/USD higher as it calls into question the sustainability of recent improvement in the labour market. It's also possible it will see a pricing out of expectations around the Fed…

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UBS - "Sterling is likely to be the biggest mover in the week ahead. On Wednesday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes are released while, separately, the UK Budget may announce a review of the central bank's inflation target. We expect this will cause the pound to weaken.

(...) This week's key points are:



- dollar bulls should check the FOMC's new forecasts

- PMI data key for euro in the week ahead

- new BoJ leadership approved, still buy USDJPY…

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TD Securities - "Upcoming Week:

UK

1. 2013-14 Budget (Wed 20 Mar): We expect the OBR’s

forecasts to judge that most of the weakness in the UK

economy is cyclical but expect the PSNCR forecast for

2013/14 to be revised up from £161bn to £163.3bn.

2. BoE Minutes (Wed 20 Mar)

3. Retail Sales (Thurs 21 Mar)

Remaining Europe

1. Italian Politics (ongoing)

2. Flash PMIs (Thurs 21 Mar)

3. EU Leaders’ Summit (Thurs-Fri…

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UBS - "Yen weakness remains the dominant theme of FX markets as the BoJ is pressed to deliver, but the Fed should grab the limelight next week as the FOMC meets for the first time this year. With 2013 getting off to a strong start, markets will be sensitive to any hints of a policy shift which may bring forward the normalization schedule. The RBNZ is expected to leave rates unchanged. On the data front, payrolls and manufacturing ISM and Q4 GDP feature in the US. In Europe final PMIs are…

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bad news....

Francesc

 

BNP Paribas - "Eurozone According to PMI surveys’ results released this morning, the downturn gathered pace at the beginning of the last quarter of the year. The Composite PMI for activity came in at 45.8, 0.3 point below the September reading. This suggests that output might contract in the second half of the year.

The Euro was broadly lower to start the week as political risks and weakness in macro data weighed on the currency.  Flash PMI data dropped to 46 (against expectations of 48), which places the report firmly in contractionary territory and is not showing the lowest levels since the middle of 2009.  The presidential election in France was also one of the main themes, with the Socialist Party candidate winning the first phase of the voting process.  The next vote will take place on May…

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The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) conducts a monthy survey of purchasing and supply executives at a sampling of service-providing firms across the United States. The results of their March survey are due for release on hump day at 10:00 am New York time (14:00 GMT).

The mood of the currency market could very well be dictated today by results from the latest ADP employment report and/or comments by ECB president Mario Draghi…

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The euro after rallying in the Asian trading session and hitting a high of 1.3950, fell back into its trading range from the last two weeks, falling to intra-day short term …

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The British pound rallied against the major currencies after the release of a consensus-beating figure from the June UK PMI services report during today's London session. Sterling retreated about 25 pips against the euro as the European trading day approached its end.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp's Quantitative Analyst

A broad British pound sell-off was sparked by a report showing that the UK Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 20-month low in May. The currency pair widely known as cable fell more than 60 pips during the first 90 minutes of today's New York session.

Curt Wehrley
FX Bootcamp's Quantitative Analyst