Bank of America Merrill Lynch - "The “most important payroll release in years” this Friday has followed:
The 7th worst monthly return for global government bonds since 1985, and
The largest week of bond fund redemptions since October 2008.
The High Liquidity-Low Growth regime of 2008-12 has been maximum bullish for fixed income, and in our view May reflected concerns of a regime shift in 2013.
Our economists expect a 150K increase in May non-farm payrolls, a tad below the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 7, 2013 at 8:57am — No Comments
Deutsche Bank - "In recent weeks dollar long positioning has become extended as the market anticipates Fed tapering on the back of stronger US economic data. As a result, US data, particularly labor market data, has taken on renewed importance and may add considerable volatility to currency markets for the remainder of 2013.
Overnight EUR volatility is indicatively pricing 2x the volatility around next Friday’s NFP print relative to a “normal day” (e.g. inferred from 1m volatility).…
Added by Francesc Riverola on June 3, 2013 at 7:56pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The data calendar gets busy again over the coming week, with NFPs the icing on the cake on Friday. Our economists are looking for a s lightly above-consensus number, at +210k. We’ve also got the BoE (waiting for Carney) and ECB (dovish but no cut) meetings on Thursday. Because the Fed is becoming very data-dependant, the focus will be on US employment. Three scenarios:
1.Strong US data would revive exit fears,…
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 31, 2013 at 3:37pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "The consensus calls for a modest 140,000 increase in non-farm payrolls. In the US Treasury market, the mood is to sell into a post-data rally. Equity investors would love a dip to buy into and unless we see a significantly worse than expected figure, we're going to make an assault on 1600. I wouldn't even rule out the FX equivalent - a final push to and through USD/JPY 100.
Commodities have bounced and the mood is positive, but I'd still like to keep some bearish FX…
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "The ECB decision yesterday is very much the focus of the market today ahead of the key non-farm payrolls data from the US later. The 0.25 point cut and measures to be detailed helping to improve the asset-backed securities market in order to improve credit flows to the real economy were the key actions announced but it was the admission that the ECB had an “open mind” to cutting the deposit rate to negative territory that grabbed all the attention. Was this…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on May 3, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) has released its latest monthly report based on surveys of small businesses in the United States. The March report suggests weaker US jobs figures during the spring season.…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on April 9, 2013 at 2:42pm — No Comments
Tomorrow is the first Friday of the month, which usually means non-farm payrolls. The US jobs report for March is due for release at 8:30 a.m. EDT.Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on April 5, 2013 at 4:37am — No Comments
ING Bank - "February has presented an unambiguously good US nonfarm payrolls report, with both the non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate pushing in very encouraging directions. Non-farm payrolls rose 236K, up from 119K, which was part of a 15K net downward revision to the previous month’s data.
(...) The near term market reaction will be to sell the back end of the yield curve, and for equities and the dollar to rally (especially against the JPY and GBP). With the Fed committed to…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 2:13pm — No Comments
Societé Generale - "With all due respect to industrial production data in Sweden and Germany, and to Swiss CPI, the focus is on US payrolls. ADP and the weekly claims figures point to an above-consensus gain. And the ISM employment indices suggest the data could be excellent. SG's forecast is at the top end of the range. This should be dollar supportive. I'm going high in the office sweep and I hope to persuade everyone else that possibility of good data has bene over-hyped, and the smart…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 8, 2013 at 8:24am — No Comments
Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi - "EUR/USD is barely holding above 1.3000. The dynamics have changed in the FX market and the change bodes well for the US dollar. However, the ECB decision tomorrow when we expect rates to be left unchanged should limit EUR/USD downside risk for now.
We believe one of the key factors for the dollar performing well is the open-ended nature of QE3 and its linkage to incoming economic data that has been better than data elsewhere. With that in mind, the ADP…
Added by Francesc Riverola on March 6, 2013 at 9:00am — No Comments
BBH - "The January nonfarm payrolls 157k increase was in line with expectations, but the back month revisions were worth another 127k and average hourly earnings rose 0.2% a bit more than expected. The risk in the unemployment rate to 7.9% from 7.8% reflects two things--the participation rate and the incorporation of new census data.
The revisions mean that the economy created a net 196k jobs in December and 247k in November.
(...) The forces that are driving the fx market--the…
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 1, 2013 at 2:23pm — No Comments
Societe Generale - "The ADP employment survey, which posted an increase of 192,000, points to an increase of around 200k in payrolls, in line with the SG forecast. That would mark a clear pickup, since the 3, 6 and 12-month average payroll increases are all clustered in a 150-160k range. We also look for a dip in the unemployment rate and a flat monthly earnings figure, taking wage growth to 1.9%. Economic pick-up without inflationary pressures. The key for all markets is when a faster pace…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on February 1, 2013 at 9:19am — No Comments
Most Viewed Webinars for the week of December 1st to 9th 2012
December 1st - 9th 2012
#1 Wayne McDonell - SPECIAL EVENT: Trade Non-Farm Payrolls LIVE - 78th Edition
#2 Sean Lee -…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 11, 2012 at 7:31pm — No Comments
ING Bank - "The US labour report for November shows employment rising 146,000 on the month, better than the 85,000 consensus, but there were a net 49,000 downward revisions to previous data. There was also good news in that the unemployment rate fell to 7.7% from 7.9% where-as the consensus was looking for that to remain unchanged. However, the reasons behind the fall in the unemployment rate are not as encouraging. This household survey showed employment falling 122,000 with the only…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on December 7, 2012 at 5:39pm — No Comments
US job creation is just barely keeping pace with population growth, yet America's labour market has managed to escape its summer doldrums. The latest monthly employment report from the BLS showed job growth spread across multiple industries plus signs of optimism in the jobless ranks.
The headline figure from the October US non-farm payrolls (NFP) report beat the consensus forecast (based on a…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on November 3, 2012 at 10:20pm — No Comments
it is week end time.Market awaits the out come of NFP to be announced by 12;30 GMT just before the US presidential election by next week.more caution may be seen among the traders while committing positions.
As a result EURO and GBP underwent profit booking moves .
Currently subdued moves are seen during japanese session.Euro and GBP are holding closer to initial low set for the day.they could make a false dip during late Japanese session .after some brief downward stop hunt…Continue
The key figure from US Bureau of Labor Statistics establishment survey -- the number that typically draws the most trader attention -- was no surprise. The report showed a relatively modest 114,000 increase in US non-farm payrolls (NFP) in September, nearly matching the consensus forecast of 115,000 derived from a recent Bloomberg survey.…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on October 8, 2012 at 1:58am — No Comments
As I talked about in my commentary yesterday, Gold appears to be forming a price action squeeze on the $1790/$1800 level which has been capping the upside since Nov. last year. I mentioned in the prior post I expect some shakeout prior to the breakout and this is exactly how it played out with back to back 2-way…
Added by 2ndSkiesForex on October 4, 2012 at 11:00pm — No Comments
BNP Paribas - "An acceleration of job creations is unlikely to happen in the second half of this year. Regarding both investment and hiring decisions, the business sector will keep on the wait-and-see mood, as long as they do not have a clearer idea of the way the fiscal cliff is to be avoided. The fiscal outlook is blurred. There is no doubt that federal authorities will not the fiscal budget to adjust by 5 percentage points next year. Whether this will be achieved through no cut in…Continue
Added by Francesc Riverola on September 25, 2012 at 8:48am — No Comments
What a difference a year makes. The euro started the first full trading week of September 2011 with its worst performance of the year against the US dollar as concerns about Italy's fiscal health and rumors of a Greek default weighed on the single currency. Europe's single currency started the ninth month of 2012 with one of its best weekly performances of the year in the wake of two key news events: (1) a highly anticipated announcement of a new European Central Bank (ECB) bond buying…Continue
Added by Curt Wehrley on September 10, 2012 at 2:57am — No Comments