All Blog Posts Tagged 'MPC' (16)

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB to cut deposit rate below zero in the week ahead

UBS - "The European Central Bank will be the focus in the week ahead, eclipsing the Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia and Bank of Canada policy decisions and America's ISM and payrolls releases. The risk of the ECB pursuing negative interest rates or expanding its balance sheet is set to keep the euro trading heavily into the Governing Council meeting. But the franc may incur more volatility in June if the Swiss National Bank matches any ECB decision to cut deposit rates below zero.…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on June 2, 2014 at 9:30am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: ECB speakers to keep euro a sell on rallies

UBS - "Financial markets are giving out inconsistent signals. A firmer yen, stronger Treasuries and bunds, weaker Eurozone peripheral bonds and lower stocks point to increased risk aversion. But the Swiss franc is weakening while commodity currencies are stable. The major currencies are more likely still to be driven by shifts in monetary policy. The Federal Reserve is set to keep tapering, helping the dollar recover from this year's lows. The likelihood of European Central Bank easing next…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on May 19, 2014 at 10:08am — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points for currencies: A Key Week For The Dollar

UBS - "The dollar continues to trade at weak levels against the euro, pound and Swiss franc as the Federal Reserve is still printing money and buying bonds. In the week ahead the Federal Open Market Committee is likely to taper its asset purchases by another $10bn to $45bn a month. We expect the greenback to rise across the board as the end of quantitative easing comes into sight by the autumn. But this month's FOMC decision may only provide marginal support to the dollar as the Fed will…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on April 28, 2014 at 9:19am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Strong US data now will lead to sharp dollar rallies

UBS - "The Federal Reserve is only likely to start raising interest rates next year. But this month's Open Market Committee meeting has primed the dollar for a major rally over the next few months. Policymakers agreed to taper monthly bond purchases by another $10bn. In addition, the Fed's forward guidance linking future interest rate hikes to a 6.5% unemployment rate was dropped. But the FOMC also surprised by retaining its bullish economic forecasts despite the winter slowdown in America,…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 24, 2014 at 2:42pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Fed tapering sufficient to push dollar higher

UBS - "Our bullish view on the dollar faces key tests in the week ahead. The Federal Open Market Committee meets. US GDP, ISM, payrolls and PCE inflation data are released. The European Central Bank holds its monthly meeting and the Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee also meets.

In the run up to next week's events, the greenback has weakened. US data remains mixed while Wall Street Journalist Hilsenrath suggested the Fed may sharpen its forward guidance. In contrast, Eurozone PMI…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on July 29, 2013 at 2:36pm — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points: Dollar drop exaggerated, Bernanke to still signal tapering

UBS - "This month's sharp correction in the greenback - following Chairman Bernanke's comments on the need for monetary easing to continue for now - is a setback for dollar bulls. But the moves in the currency markets were exaggerated by poor liquidity - the head of the Federal Reserve was speaking in the gap between New York trading ending and Asian trading beginning - and the latest US data suggests the Federal Open Market Committee remains on track to start tapering its asset purchases from… Continue

Added by Francesc Riverola on July 13, 2013 at 1:22pm — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: USDJPY still faces risks in very near term

UBS - "USDJPY remains the focus of the currency markets. Over the last two weeks the flush out of positions in the currency pair and the Nikkei has been savage, causing investors to unwind other dollar longs against the euro, pound and Swiss franc. In contrast, the fundamentals supporting a stronger dollar this year remain intact.

(...) most of the forty clients we met this week in France, Sweden and Switzerland also still favour the dollar this year. Longs have clearly been strongly…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on June 15, 2013 at 9:15am — 2 Comments

RBS - Weekend news flow would suggest that EUR/GBP has downside; For Cable, we see further declines

Royal Bank of Scotland - "The weekend news from Cyprus looks set to dominate market sentiment at the beginning of the week. How EUR/GBP reacts to this news flow will inform on whether GBP weakness this year has been due to a deterioration in UK fundamentals or has been due to an unwinding of safe haven flows. If EUR/GBP can't decline given this weekend's news flow, then UK fundamentals would appear to have dominated. While EUR/GBP may fall if the EUR comes under pressure, we do not expect…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 19, 2013 at 12:14pm — No Comments

UBS - Sterling is likely to be the biggest mover in the week ahead

UBS - "Sterling is likely to be the biggest mover in the week ahead. On Wednesday, Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee minutes are released while, separately, the UK Budget may announce a review of the central bank's inflation target. We expect this will cause the pound to weaken.

(...) This week's key points are:



- dollar bulls should check the FOMC's new forecasts

- PMI data key for euro in the week ahead

- new BoJ leadership approved, still buy USDJPY…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 16, 2013 at 8:48am — No Comments

UBS - This Week's Key Points: Upcoming FOMC forecast round key for dollar strength

UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:

- upcoming FOMC forecast round key for dollar strength

- ECB inaction to support euro on the crosses

- the new BoJ won't disppoint USDJPY bulls

- MPC waits for Budget BoE review, stay short Cable

- SNB to stay on hold in the week ahead, watch USDCHF

- Norges Bank also to remain unchanged next week

- Australian jobs, RBNZ meeting should temper AUDNZD rally"

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director &…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on March 9, 2013 at 10:53am — No Comments

Societe Generale - GBP/USD remains a clear medium-term sell

Societé Generale - "Underlying instability in the FX market is now so evident that politicians are reacting trying to shape expectations. Normally, they would have little or no impact, but in a period where animal spirits roam (Farmer 1987, 2011) managing market expectations can easily tilt the equilibrium. Merkel tells us 1.30-1.40 is the new normal, NZ tells us their currency level is not normal, BoJ says 90-100 is the new normal (same range we gave incidentally and with as precise a…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on February 20, 2013 at 3:30pm — No Comments

UBS - This week's key points: Dollar bears note FOMC has hawks as well as doves

UBS - "This week's key points for currencies are:

- dollar bears note FOMC has hawks as well as doves

- euro supported for now on global risk sentiment

- USDJPY still a buy on dips into January's BoJ meeting

- UK CPI, retail sales key in the week ahead for sterling

- EURCHF plays catch up at last with euro crosses

- expect NOKSEK to be bid as Swedish data stays mixed

- watch Australia's employment data in the week ahead"

Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on January 14, 2013 at 3:35pm — 3 Comments

UBS - This week's key points: Fed doves unlikely to weaken the dollar now

UBS - "This week's key points are:
- Fed doves unlikely to weaken the dollar now
- ECB meeting key for euro in the week ahead
- BoJ to agree higher inflation target this month
- MPC meeting unlikely to provide direction to sterling
- upcoming Swiss CPI data focus for franc
- follow Riksbank minutes in the week ahead"
Mansoor Mohi-uddin, Managing Director and Head of Foreign Exchange Strategy at UBS Macro Research

Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 2:16pm — No Comments

Goldman Sachs - Will the Bank of England ease further?

Goldman Sachs - "Probably, but with a greater focus on ‘unconventional unconventional’ easing measures than on QE. Although we expect output growth to improve in 2013, we do not envisage a return to the economy’s long-run growth potential – around 21⁄2% per year, on our estimates – until 2016. And, given an output gap that is already large (on our estimates), we expect underlying inflationary pressures to be subdued. This combination of sluggish growth, significant spare capacity and weak…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on January 7, 2013 at 2:08pm — No Comments

Goldman Sachs - UK: We now forecast a further £50 bn of QE in November

Goldman Sachs - "While growth appears to have improved somewhat, it is nevertheless sufficiently weak in our view to justify further easing. We continue to expect the Bank of England to ease policy in November, when the existing QE programme runs out. However, where previously we forecast that the MPC would cut the Bank Rate by 25bps, to 0.25%, and expand QE by a further £25 bn, we now expect that all of the easing will take place via an additional £50 bn in QE. Recent comments from various…

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Added by Francesc Riverola on October 1, 2012 at 8:00am — No Comments

Opportunity and Threats Lie Ahead

 

Risk Appetite Surges on Economy and Earnings

Risk appetite continues to dominate current market sentiment as a potential resolution to problems on ‘both side of the pond’ is beginning to emerge. The market is anticipating that a swift solution is going to take place in regards to Greek debacle. Furthermore, timid progress in regards to the US debt ceiling is taking risk aversion mentality out of the market place. In turn, a gold price lingering near $1,600 per troy…

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Added by Andrei Tratseuski on July 20, 2011 at 4:08pm — No Comments

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